2015-2016 Offseason Thread

[Otto von Ballpark]

Urias to MLB at age 19 would be fun too!

[biggentleben]

 

Urias to MLB at age 19 would be fun too!

 

They did it with Kershaw.

[DaveW]

Johnny Cueto signed with the Giants for 6 years and $130M. I think that counts as a bargain.

 

The NL West is stacked.

Basically it's a 2 year 42 million dollar deal if he pitches like he has. Not a bad deal at all even if he does likely opt out.

 

I would have gladly given him the same contract.

[Vanimal46]

Daniel Murphy stays in the NL East, signing with the Washington Nationals for 3 years, $37.5 million.

 

Thought he would get more than that after his red hot playoffs.

[zenser]

Chapman to NYY for 4 minor leaguers.  Judge, Sanchez, and Bird not included.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/yankees-aroldis-chapman-trade-reds.html

 

[Vanimal46]

Chapman's value plummeted after his little altercation this offseason. Wish the Twins could have thrown their hat in that negotiation.

[DaveW]

What a freaking steal for the Yankees. If the allegations against Chapman are true though, he is a PoS but the Yanks may get 1.5 years out of him

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, from a baseball stand point, it's a pretty good deal for the Yankees (although Davis has some potential to be a Trevor May like pitcher, I think).  

[nicksaviking]

Good move for the Yankees. Get the guy for one year, a year in which 8 of their starters on offense will be over 32 and their best three players from last year all had unlikely resurgent seasons that tailed off at the end; those three players will be 36, 39 and 40 in 2016 and all three should be playing DH. Also, their rotation is average at best.

 

Seems to me stocking the bullpen like that is something a team should do when they are primed to have the lead a lot. I don't think the Yankees will.

[biggentleben]

 

Good move for the Yankees. Get the guy for one year, a year in which 8 of their starters on offense will be over 32 and their best three players from last year all had unlikely resurgent seasons that tailed off at the end; those three players will be 36, 39 and 40 in 2016 and all three should be playing DH. Also, their rotation is average at best.

 

Seems to me stocking the bullpen like that is something a team should do when they are primed to have the lead a lot. I don't think the Yankees will.

 

Or it could be a good strategy to load up the bullpen to cover a team that expects to have slim leads to protect when they have leads and want the best they can get to ensure those leads make it through from the 5th to the 9th innings.

[Vanimal46]

Scott Kazmir signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers... 3 years, $48 million

[Vanimal46]

Alex Gordon returns to the Kansas City Royals... 4 years, $72 million. 

[cmoss84]

Obviously a nice player-but seems like a lot of money for age 32-35 seasons...and for someone with not a huge offensive game. But hey, the royals keep winning. Loyalty is nice to see also.

 

I'd just rather have Upton for a few million more.

[biggentleben]

I'd wager the Royals realize that the likelihood of getting Hosmer, Cain, etc. extended is minimal, so the next year or two is their window and then a tear down is coming again, so going for it with Gordon in the short term makes some sense as he already fits with the team.

[biggentleben]

 

Obviously a nice player-but seems like a lot of money for age 32-35 seasons...and for someone with not a huge offensive game. But hey, the royals keep winning. Loyalty is nice to see also.

 

I'd just rather have Upton for a few million more.

 

I've heard numbers rumored that Upton and Cespedes have both asked for $25M+ per season to go less than 5 years. So for 4 years, you're talking $100M. Not exactly a "few" million more.

[cmoss84]

I am probably wrong, but I can't see them getting that much. 4 for 80-85 is my prediction for Upton.

[nicksaviking]

If it was my team, a four-year deal for a 32-year old would make me cringe, but the guy means more to the Royals than he would to any other team; he's got to be considered the face of the franchise.

 

Even though they're division rivals, I'm still a bit happy the small market KC fans get to keep a fan favorite, doesn't happen often.

[kab21]

Gordon's deal is actually quite reasonable.  18M/yr for a 4-5 WAR player (3 of 5 last seasons = 5-7 WAR).  I would say that it is 1 yr too long for a 32 yr old at his level of play but there is a chance that he earns the salary in only two seasons.  5 WAR at 7M/WAR for example.

 

The crazy thing is that Upton and Cespedes could get more per season despite being less valuable than Gordon. Upton is younger but he doesn't have nearly as much value unless he breaks out and becomes the generational player that everyone thought he was half a decade ago.

 

If it was my team then this is exactly what I would hope that they do.  Keep winning.

[USAFChief]

Gordon's deal is actually quite reasonable.  18M/yr for a 4-5 WAR player (3 of 5 last seasons = 5-7 WAR).  I would say that it is 1 yr too long for a 32 yr old at his level of play but there is a chance that he earns the salary in only two seasons.  5 WAR at 7M/WAR for example.

 

The crazy thing is that Upton and Cespedes could get more per season despite being less valuable than Gordon. Upton is younger but he doesn't have nearly as much value unless he breaks out and becomes the generational player that everyone thought he was half a decade ago.

 

If it was my team then this is exactly what I would hope that they do.  Keep winning.

I'd rather have Upton.

 

Younger, and a lot of Gordon's "value" is tied up in shaky defensive metrics.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'd rather have Upton.

Younger, and a lot of Gordon's "value" is tied up in shaky defensive metrics.

 

Metrics that are likely to not be as sterling very quickly as he ages.

[nicksaviking]

Metrics that are likely to not be as sterling very quickly as he ages.

Yeah, a 32-year old with an excellent glove sounds like an mirage in today's game. A 36-year old? Eesh. Good for KC though, I'm happy for the sentimental fans, and I'm extra happy for how it ties the font offices' hands when Cain hits the market.

[jimmer]

I'm glad Gordon went back to KC.  Seeing him in another uniform would be weird. Good to see a team value such a quality player on both sides.  Cain will be practically the same age as Gordon when he hits FA.  Assuming he ever gets to FA in 2018 that is.

[kab21]

 

I'd rather have Upton.

Younger, and a lot of Gordon's "value" is tied up in shaky defensive metrics.

I have to admit that it is really difficult to see any difference between Gordon's defense and Upton's OF adventure.  It is also very likely that Gordon at age 36 will move better than Upton at age 32. 

 

I think it's funny how you overrate Upton's offensive value.  Gordon almost matches Upton offensively but he doesn't hit HR's like Upton so there is a perceived big difference.

 

 

 

 

[cmoss84]

 

I have to admit that it is really difficult to see any difference between Gordon's defense and Upton's OF adventure.  It is also very likely that Gordon at age 36 will move better than Upton at age 32. 

 

I think it's funny how you overrate Upton's offensive value.  Gordon almost matches Upton offensively but he doesn't hit HR's like Upton so there is a perceived big difference.

Do you honestly think Gordon and Upton are that close offensively? Realistically, Gordon might hit .275 with 15 HR/60 RBI. Upton has potential to hit 30+ HRs depending on which stadium he lands.

(I know you already said Gordon doesn't hit HRs like Upton, but how do you think they are close offensively?)

[Vanimal46]

Denard Span signs with the San Francisco Giants..... 3 years, $31 million. Good for him to cash in and get long term security this offseason. 

[Don Walcott]

I like the Gordon deal for both sides.  For KC, they keep a franchise player, making the fans happy and promoting their brand.  For Gordon, he's a local hero.  He'll probably make up for any money he left on the table with local endorsements for the rest of his life.

 

I also think the defensive metrics are unreliable.  However, Gordon is a great left fielder by any measure.  That might decline a bit over the next four years, but he seems like the kind of guy who'll keep himself in as good a shape as possible to curb that decline.  And offensively, he's been an important player for the way KC has played.  All around, it's a good fit.

[jimmer]

 

Denard Span signs with the San Francisco Giants..... 3 years, $31 million. Good for him to cash in and get long term security this offseason. 

Happy for him.  It was clear all along he wasn't settling for a one year deal, nor should he have.  GO SPAN!!!!

[biggentleben]

Chris Carter signs with the Brewers. Dang, I like what the Brewers are doing this offseason on the margins.

[biggentleben]

Pirates sign Neftali Feliz. With Feliz, Watson, and Melancon at the back of their bullpen, that's a shut-down grouping. I also really liked what Juan Nicasio did until he had some arm soreness that he tried to pitch through for the Dodgers in the bullpen last year. That bullpen could be sick.

[kab21]

 

Do you honestly think Gordon and Upton are that close offensively? Realistically, Gordon might hit .275 with 15 HR/60 RBI. Upton has potential to hit 30+ HRs depending on which stadium he lands.

(I know you already said Gordon doesn't hit HRs like Upton, but how do you think they are close offensively?)

 

5 year offensive numbers

Gordon

.353 wOBA

123 wRC

.809 OPS (both players play in pitchers parks)

 

JUpton

.358 wOBA

127 wRC

.826 OPS

 

Gordon's defensive value is what has allowed him to be nearly twice as valuable as JUp in WAR.  If you want to disregard defense that is fine but all that does is make the two closer overall instead of a massive advantage to Gordon. 

 

One other data point in all of this is that a player similar to Gordon (even better at defense though) just got 184M because he is young.  Paying 72M for Gordon is not a bad deal at all.  And it is only a 4 year deal so he needs to start getting old really quick for it to be a bad contract.  It isn't like the Zobrist contract that pays him until he is 40.