2015-2016 Offseason Thread

[drjim]

I also wonder if the Red Sox are going to ultimately end up with Fernandez.

 

That would be a dominant team.

[DaveW]

did you just say they have a better 1-2 combo than the Mets? no.

Time will tell

[Mike Sixel]

Looks like the Cubs are signing Heyward. Anyone still want to argue about which team is going to come out ahead in their rebuilds?

[drjim]

I stopped comparing Ryan to Theo Epstein last year, he's in a league of his own. It's a competition for second.

 

Who else is playing? The Astros? They seem to be well ahead as well.

[drjim]

Wait, someone added that second paragraph to my post, I didn't even mention the Astros. Sneaky mods.

 

I stopped comparing Ryan to Theo Epstein last year, he's in a league of his own. It's a competition for second.

 

Who else is playing? The Astros? They seem to be well ahead as well.

 

[big dog]

 

Looks like the Cubs are signing Heyward. Anyone still want to argue about which team is going to come out ahead in their rebuilds?

Boy, I wish my team could/would spend $150 million or more on payroll.  They were at $120 at the end of the season, subtracted Castro, added Lackey and Zobrist, now potentially adding Heyward.  OK, it's actually going to be more than $150.

 

I get the whole vision, the go-for-it, etc, and admire that as well.  The ability to print money does seem to help, too.

[markos]

First Zobrist, now Heyward. It certainly seems like players really want to play for the Cubs and really don't want to play for the Nationals.

[biggentleben]

 

Boy, I wish my team could/would spend $150 million or more on payroll.  They were at $120 at the end of the season, subtracted Castro, added Lackey and Zobrist, now potentially adding Heyward.  OK, it's actually going to be more than $150.

 

I get the whole vision, the go-for-it, etc, and admire that as well.  The ability to print money does seem to help, too.

 

The thing is that all of baseball is awash in similar money. It's a matter of how it's shared. Local television revenues are a big divide in the sport right now.

[biggentleben]

 

First Zobrist, now Heyward. It certainly seems like players really want to play for the Cubs and really don't want to play for the Nationals.

 

The Nationals players don't want to play for the Nationals, and I wouldn't blame them, based on the ****show the last few years have been within that organization.

[sane09]

"Cubs To Sign Jason Heyward"

 

I'm glad we aren't in THAT league!

[gunnarthor]

 

The Nationals players don't want to play for the Nationals, and I wouldn't blame them, based on the ****show the last few years have been within that organization.

Yeah, one report I read was that the players that aren't represented by Boras feel that the team isn't interested in their future.  So you have a team divided by player/management, player/player and (under Williams) player/manager.  Seems like a fun team to root for, no?

[drjim]

 

Yeah, one report I read was that the players that aren't represented by Boras feel that the team isn't interested in their future.  So you have a team divided by player/management, player/player and (under Williams) player/manager.  Seems like a fun team to root for, no?

 

Fear not, Dusty Baker will clean it all up.

[gunnarthor]

 

"Cubs To Sign Jason Heyward"

 

I'm glad we aren't in THAT league!

Heyward is the ultimate test case for how much you value defensive stats.  His offensive numbers make him a 3.5ish WAR guy but dWAR adds another 2 WAR - basically a better defensive RF than Clemente.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Boy, I wish my team could/would spend $150 million or more on payroll.  They were at $120 at the end of the season, subtracted Castro, added Lackey and Zobrist, now potentially adding Heyward.  OK, it's actually going to be more than $150.

 

I get the whole vision, the go-for-it, etc, and admire that as well.  The ability to print money does seem to help, too.

 

they were ahead before all that, right?

[gunnarthor]

 

they were ahead before all that, right?

You mean when they were able to sign Lester to his 150m contract?  

 

If you think Hoyer or Lunhow are doing a good job on their rebuilds, there's no reason to think Ryan isn't.  (if your snarky reply is 'oooo but who made the playoffs last year' don't bother).  

[Han Joelo]

Haven't we seen an elite defensive corner outfielder who doesn't hit for power sign a huge contract in recent history?  Crawford and Epstein.  Well, this will be interesting to watch play out, especially if they try to make him a center fielder.  

 

I know it's not apples to apples, but there are some similarities.

 

While it does still qualify as rebuilding, Epstein seems to be throwing cash at it now, rather than wait (and hope) for any more prospects to pan out.

[markos]

 

Yeah, one report I read was that the players that aren't represented by Boras feel that the team isn't interested in their future.  So you have a team divided by player/management, player/player and (under Williams) player/manager.  Seems like a fun team to root for, no?

As someone who has lived in DC for a while now and been to dozen of games over the past few seasons, it has been a fun team to root for - at least until July of this year or so. I'm starting to think that this season will be the last hurrah for Rizzo, and that they completely blow up the front office and team if they fail to make the playoffs again. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

You mean when they were able to sign Lester to his 150m contract?  

 

If you think Hoyer or Lunhow are doing a good job on their rebuilds, there's no reason to think Ryan isn't.  (if your snarky reply is 'oooo but who made the playoffs last year' don't bother).  

 

how should I judge the rebuilds in Houston, MN, and Chicago?

 

It would also be cool if we could, you now, talk w/o being jerks, right?

[drjim]

 

You mean when they were able to sign Lester to his 150m contract?  

 

If you think Hoyer or Lunhow are doing a good job on their rebuilds, there's no reason to think Ryan isn't.  (if your snarky reply is 'oooo but who made the playoffs last year' don't bother).  

 

I think you can state Ryan is doing fine with the rebuild while also saying that Epstein is running circles around him. Really no shame in that, Epstein is running circles around everyone.

 

I'm personally still wait and see on Luhnow.

[Whammy]

Rebuilds can work like the Twins are doing it and rebuilds can work like the Cubs are doing it. There's no guarantee of anything.

 

But there sure is a lot more room for error with the way the Cubs are doing it.

 

When teams bottom out, once they are ready to push for and make the playoffs, they are never going to get lucky enough to have players come through the system without any holes on the roster. 

 

The Cubs appear to have recognized and addressed holes that they felt they had. And in some cases said, "yeah, that guy that came through the system is good, but this other guy is even better."

 

Even when the Twins were always contending for division crowns in the 00s, there always seemed to be 3-4 roster spots that were substantially below league average and perhaps below replacement level. I would argue, those 3-4 players significantly reduced the Twins chances of making it to, and winning, the World Series. I hope that will not happen this time.

[biggentleben]

 

Haven't we seen an elite defensive corner outfielder who doesn't hit for power sign a huge contract in recent history?  Crawford and Epstein.  Well, this will be interesting to watch play out, especially if they try to make him a center fielder.  

 

I know it's not apples to apples, but there are some similarities.

 

While it does still qualify as rebuilding, Epstein seems to be throwing cash at it now, rather than wait (and hope) for any more prospects to pan out.

 

Heyward does have some background (and success) being a very good defensive center fielder as well, however. Crawford was not even a good defensive outfielder in a corner, let alone elite, so it's not exactly even apples to peanuts other than the same GM involved.

 

I will say after years of watching him that, in spite of his Dave Winfield build, Heyward seems most comfortable and performs best out of the leadoff slot in the lineup. His gap power and solid base running will be an asset there even as speed goes down in his career, plus playing the outfield in Wrigley is a much smaller outfield to cover than Atlanta or St. Louis, and he's done well in those stops thus far.

[biggentleben]

 

Rebuilds can work like the Twins are doing it and rebuilds can work like the Cubs are doing it. There's no guarantee of anything.

 

But there sure is a lot more room for error with the way the Cubs are doing it.

 

When teams bottom out, once they are ready to push for and make the playoffs, they are never going to get lucky enough to have players come through the system without any holes on the roster. 

 

The Cubs appear to have recognized and addressed holes that they felt they had. And in some cases said, "yeah, that guy that came through the system is good, but this other guy is even better."

 

Even when the Twins were always contending for division crowns in the 00s, there always seemed to be 3-4 roster spots that were substantially below league average and perhaps below replacement level. I would argue, those 3-4 players significantly reduced the Twins chances of making it to, and winning, the World Series. I hope that will not happen this time.

 

I guess I'm not sure why the Cubs version would have any more holes than any other way. What would be the drastic hole? They're backed up on nearly every position in the upper minors with a few good minor league options in the lower levels that could also turn out. Their major weakness was pitching, and they went the route of finding scrap heap guys and creating a rotation and bullpen out of that. Heck, they just re-signed Trevor Cahill for their bullpen. I didn't think there was a hitter in baseball who didn't know exactly what pitch Cahill was going to throw for Atlanta last year, and then he goes to Chicago's bullpen and suddenly he's a 2.00 ERA/0.80 WHIP pitcher. A guy like Jake Arrieta is basically a throw-in for a trade deadline deal on Scott Feldman, and he turns into an ace. Then they use the resources they do have to back up those guys with Lesters and Lackeys of the world to solidify the rotation and give it depth.

[gunnarthor]

 

I think you can state Ryan is doing fine with the rebuild while also saying that Epstein is running circles around him. Really no shame in that, Epstein is running circles around everyone.

 

I'm personally still wait and see on Luhnow.

It must really suck being the GM of the Cubs and watching everyone praise Theo for your moves ...

[gunnarthor]

 

how should I judge the rebuilds in Houston, MN, and Chicago?

 

It would also be cool if we could, you now, talk w/o being jerks, right?

Sure but that ship sailed long ago.  You've been ripping the rebuild for years even as people explained it.   Why should we expect you to stop your subtle digs now?

 

I tend to think Hoyer, Ryan and Lunhow are all doing a good job although I'd rank them Ryan, Hoyer, Lunhow.  Each had their own problems and advantages unique to the situation.  

[biggentleben]

 

It must really suck being the GM of the Cubs and watching everyone praise Theo for your moves ...

 

...and you know that Hoyer is the one making the moves? Just because it says "GM" doesn't mean that he's making the moves. The modern front office doesn't have the same decision-making responsibilities associated with certain titles as it did 10-15 years ago. I know in Atlanta, Coppy is the GM, but Hart is the guy making the actual decisions, and they've come out and said as much.

[gunnarthor]

 

...and you know that Hoyer is the one making the moves? Just because it says "GM" doesn't mean that he's making the moves. The modern front office doesn't have the same decision-making responsibilities associated with certain titles as it did 10-15 years ago. I know in Atlanta, Coppy is the GM, but Hart is the guy making the actual decisions, and they've come out and said as much.

No, you're right.  No GM (Ryan, Hoyer, Cashman) makes moves in a vacuum but I think a lot of people probably think Epstein in the GM, not Hoyer.  

[Mike Sixel]

Did I even mention anyone's name? The rebuilds are done from the FO, to the minor league staff, to the field staff in the majors. 

 

Out of curiosity, why would you rank the Twins as the best rebuild so far? do you expect them to be more successful than the cubs for the next 5 years? Or the Astros?

[Mike Sixel]

There was nothing subtle .... I prefer what the Cubs are doing, even before this last signing.

[biggentleben]

 

No, you're right.  No GM (Ryan, Hoyer, Cashman) makes moves in a vacuum but I think a lot of people probably think Epstein in the GM, not Hoyer.  

 

No disagreement there. I think Hoyer has a much stronger voice in the room than he's given credit for, but I don't think either guy works alone on a deal, and honestly, I think that's why they were both better together in Boston than they were apart in Boston and San Diego.

[gunnarthor]

 

Did I even mention anyone's name? The rebuilds are done from the FO, to the minor league staff, to the field staff in the majors. 

 

Out of curiosity, why would you rank the Twins as the best rebuild so far? do you expect them to be more successful than the cubs for the next 5 years? Or the Astros?

I ranked Ryan ahead of Hoyer and Lunhow.   I think Ryan has done a better job considering where he came in and what the situation was when he took over compared to the other two.  He doesn't have the financial resources of the Cubs and didn't have 4+ years of high picks already in the system that Lunhow did (not to mention, the permission to lose 110 games).  I do think the Twins will be better than the Astros and Cubs (although I also believe strongly that the NL is an inferior league so I'm not overly concerned about the Cubs record) over the next five years, too.