What do we know about John Ryan Murphy?

[Dman]

 

And answer me this: If Ryan was such a good prospect (which he never was) then why would the Yankees go out and overpay big time for a Brian McCann type at catcher? It's not like the Yankees didn't have a ton of other holes (2B, SS, OF, SP) heading into last season as well.

 

Couldn't you just as easily say why was he the Yankee's 4th best prospect? Is their farm really that bad?  Why was he on some scouting services top 100 prospects list because they like to put bad catchers on there?  The guy has some potential to be good at this position and it was recognized by scouting services.

[DocBauer]

 

I consider it a ringing endorsement.

Wait...........................is that sarcasm?

[Darius]

 

Oh. OK, I guess.  

 

I figured it was sarcasm because of the Hicks being a 20/20 guy and gold glover.  I mean, I liked the guy but, no.  He doesn't hit RHP well enough to do that and his defense looks good (I like it better than the stats) but he's not a gold glove guy

 

 

Hicks 2015 numbers extrapolate to 17 HR and 20 SB over 550 PA.  He'll be a 20/20 guy unless he unravels, regardless of any improvement against RHP.

 

Baseball-Ref has him ranked as the 5th highest CF in Range Factor/Game for 2015, behind only Cain, Pillar, Kiermaier, and Trout.

[jimmer]

 

Couldn't you just as easily say why was he the Yankee's 4th best prospect? Is their farm really that bad?  Why was he on some scouting services top 100 prospects list because they like to put bad catchers on there?  The guy has some potential to be good at this position and it was recognized by scouting services.

can you link these lists, please? I ask because usually when a person is a top 100 MLB prospect by a major prospect site, it's listed on their BR page.

[Dman]

 

can you link these lists, please? I ask because usually when a person is a top 100 MLB prospect by a major prospect site, it's listed on their BR page.

http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2014/02/05/yankees-land-four-on-zips-projected-top-100-prospects/ 

[DaveW]

Couldn't you just as easily say why was he the Yankee's 4th best prospect? Is their farm really that bad? Why was he on some scouting services top 100 prospects list because they like to put bad catchers on there? The guy has some potential to be good at this position and it was recognized by scouting services.

their farm system is terrible

[Darius]

 

Couldn't you just as easily say why was he the Yankee's 4th best prospect? Is their farm really that bad?  Why was he on some scouting services top 100 prospects list because they like to put bad catchers on there?  The guy has some potential to be good at this position and it was recognized by scouting services.

 

 

True, but he was traded for a guy who was the consensus number 1 prospect in a strong system, at one point, and a consensus top 50 talent MiLB-wide on nearly every scout's list, for multiple years.  

 

Cherry picking scout rankings the other way can make it look even worse, if you really want to use those outdated projections to try and shed a positive light.

[DaveW]

Hicks 2015 numbers extrapolate to 17 HR and 20 SB over 550 PA. He'll be a 20/20 guy unless he unravels, regardless of any improvement against RHP.

 

Baseball-Ref has him ranked as the 5th highest CF in Range Factor/Game for 2015, behind only Cain, Pillar, Kiermaier, and Trout.

exactly

[jimmer]

 

http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2014/02/05/yankees-land-four-on-zips-projected-top-100-prospects/ 

That article was almost 2 years ago.  What does BA, BP, Scouting News, Fangraphs (like from Kiley before he left), Keith Law, etc. say recently?  I am not trying to be difficult, but I haven't seen him on any of the most reputable scouting reports recently.  Love to see where I missed it (which certainly can happen).

[gunnarthor]

 

True, but he was traded for a guy who was the consensus number 1 prospect in a strong system, at one point, and a consensus top 50 talent MiLB-wide on nearly every scout's list, for multiple years.  

 

Cherry picking scout rankings the other way can make it look even worse, if you really want to use those outdated projections to try and shed a positive light.

this is getting a little silly but Hicks rankings by BA went from 39, 19, 45 to not ranked to 72.  He hasn't been considered a top 50 prospect since before the 2011 season.  The Twins also happen to have the #1 ranked prospect who plays the same position.

 

I think it's probably a bit more accurate to look at Hicks more recent track record to figure out what he is at this point.  I like him but as others have said, Yankee fans are complaining about trading Murphy for a 4th OFer.

[Dman]

 

True, but he was traded for a guy who was the consensus number 1 prospect in a strong system, at one point, and a consensus top 50 talent MiLB-wide on nearly every scout's list, for multiple years.  

 

Cherry picking scout rankings the other way can make it look even worse, if you really want to use those outdated projections to try and shed a positive light.

 

All I am trying to point out is the guy isn't a terrible catcher and was given props on his way up.  Never said the trade was dead equal value just that I don't think we got robbed in the deal.  The team pursuing a player usually has to give more to get that player.  The Twins gave up more potential but trades are about need and risk.  We need a better catcher and we got one.

[nytwinsfan]

Keith Law calls it a draw, or rather, a win-win because both teams traded from an area of surplus for an area of need and because the value was about equal.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4482

 

On Murphy:

 

credit the Twins with recognizing that as a sunk cost and acquiring a better player in Murphy, whose acquisition could easily make the Twins a full win better right away, likely more if his defense is as good as I think it is.

 

Murphy converted to catching late in his high school career, so much of his early pro tenure involved working on learning the position -- he had the soft hands and strong arm to play the position but needed work on receiving and game-calling. He should be at least average at controlling the running game, with the arm strength to do more, and I think he'll end up an above-average receiver and framer given time. At the plate, Murphy has a quiet approach that produces a lot of contact thanks to his very short path to the ball; he's unlikely to hit for much power barring a swing change, but I do think the low OBPs he's shown the last two years might improve as he gets regular playing time, since he was reasonably disciplined before he became the Yanks' de facto backup. I've long held that he'd be someone's everyday catcher, just probably not the Yankees'.

 

 

[DocBauer]

 

their farm system is terrible

But....but.....they're the Yankees!!

[Mike Sixel]

Thanks for the KLAW update, he's the most upbeat of anyone I read on Murphy. 

[jimmer]

 

Keith Law calls it a draw, or rather, a win-win because both teams traded from an area of surplus for an area of need and because the value was about equal.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4482

 

On Murphy:

Nice post, thank you for the info.

[Rosterman]

In the grand scheme of baseball, most of us saw Hicks becoming a fourth outfielder, and a pretty good one (albeit eventually expensive) one at that. We now have to see if Rosario holds value, Arcia steps up, and Walker and Kepler become the future. We can still see Plouffe or Sano patrolling out there if need be. And reference was made that Danny Santana would still be a 4th outfielder candidate.

 

Getting a solid backup catcher who COULD play on a regular basis. Can he hold the fort until the future (whomever that may be). Might he step up and be a league-average catcher at worst?

 

But Hicks was expendable with value. Arcia has no value. Santana has no value. Rosario is still a wait-and-see.

 

But Hicks had value and was going to cost us more sooner than any other guy the Twins throw into the outfield the next three seasons.

 

[Thrylos]

Few things: 

 

- He is still a work in progress defensively.  Yes he spent some time at 3B early in the minors alternating with C, but he was an outfielder in High School.  So he is still learning the position.

-BP is probably the place you want to go for defensive catching metrics:  Slightly above average in framing, below average in throwing out runners and well below average in blocking balls in the dirt.

-Tony Pena worked with him extensively and that's part of the reasons on his improvement with both framing and CS (still has to do work, but was in the high teens in his first seasons) as well as with "errors".  He is willing to work and learn and that is a good thing.

- Not sure how his bat will play, but because he is RHB, you got to compare him with Suzuki and Pinto (remember him?) and not Herrmann.   Is he better than Suzuki? Maybe.  Is he better than Pinto?  Not that sure, despite what the guy who served Murphy the meatball at Target Field says about Pinto...

[Vanimal46]

Keith Law calls it a draw, or rather, a win-win because both teams traded from an area of surplus for an area of need and because the value was about equal.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4482

 

On Murphy:

Thank you for quoting Law on the site!

 

Sincerely,

People like me that's too cheap to subscribe to ESPN Insider

[andy4butler]

 

Actually he could be on the cusp on super-2 eligibility next winter -- he currently has 1 year 120 days service time.

I understand the point as we don't know what the Super-2 cutoff will be in any given year ... but it has never been as low as 2 years and 120 days (though close).  I assume we could send him out to Rochester for a week if we really were worried about it.

 

FROM MLBTRADERUMORS.COM 4/10/2015

Super Two Cut Off

2015  2.130 (Article 10/28/2015)

2014: 2.133
2013: 2.122
2012: 2.140
2011: 2.146
2010: 2.122
2009: 2.139

[DaveW]

Also from Keith Law:

"That made Hicks an ideal asset to use to fill another hole; I had speculated they would go for pitching, but they did something even better, addressing the black hole they had behind the plate"

Who you gonna believe?..Keith Law? or DaveW who saw him catch a couple of times?

I believe the other 8-10 "experts" who have said Murphy is a role player.

[sane]

I believe the other 8-10 "experts" who have said Murphy is a role player.

And I believe that is a perfectly good reason believe "Murphy is a role player". Myobjection is to you seeing him play a few times and stating (as if fact) that he is not a good catcher. Everyone is horse-bleep on a certain days. Most golfers will attest to that. And baseball is the ultimate game of streaks and slumps.

[DaveW]

 

And I believe that is a perfectly good reason believe "Murphy is a role player". Myobjection is to you seeing him play a few times and stating (as if fact) that he is not a good catcher. Everyone is horse-bleep on a certain days. Most golfers will attest to that. And baseball is the ultimate game of streaks and slumps.

Sorry I probably watched 50% of the games he played in, in some way or form. Being in NY the Yankees are often on a TV somewhere at some point, and unfortunately most of the people I deal with on a daily basis are Yankee fans, so I do know quite a bit about the team and the players. From everything I have read, seen and the stats I have seen, Murphy just doesn't look like anything more than a backup catcher or a stop gap catcher, sorry if I'm not going to get excited about trading away a 5 tool  former top 40 prospect who plays a premium position and plays it damn well for him. (Yes, Hicks hasn't "lit it up" but a lot of that has to do with how the Twins rushed him and handled him) I bet Hicks hits 20/20 easily next year and becomes a nice cog on the Yankees team.

 

We just gave up too much for a player with not enough upside IMO, Arcia or Vargas for Murphy? Sure, sign me up. Meyer for Murphy? Not as cool with it, but I would be fine.

 

Hicks for Murphy? Yuck.

[markos]

 

That article was almost 2 years ago.  What does BA, BP, Scouting News, Fangraphs (like from Kiley before he left), Keith Law, etc. say recently?  I am not trying to be difficult, but I haven't seen him on any of the most reputable scouting reports recently.  Love to see where I missed it (which certainly can happen).

I don't think he was on any of the main analyst-based prospect lists, but he was on the ZIPS projection AND Chris Mitchell's (Fangraphs) KATOH projection as being top-100. Something in his profile makes projection systems really like him. I'm guessing they like that he was young for his age but an average-to-above-average hitter and that did a really good job of controlling the strike zone during his time in the minors. 

[sane]

trading away a 5 tool  former top 40 prospect who plays a premium position and plays it damn well for him. (Yes, Hicks hasn't "lit it up" but a lot of that has to do with how the Twins rushed him and handled him) I bet Hicks hits 20/20 easily next year and becomes a nice cog on the Yankees team. 

Hicks for Murphy? Yuck.

And I agree with all of that. I know Hicks personally, because during the past four winters, he attended many of our high school baseball practices. He grew up in the same town where I live. He is a good kid with a lot of talent and the trade stung me too. But I still think Murphy is a needed upgrade at catcher, although I would have preferred the Twins give up someone else.

[jimmer]

 

I don't think he was on any of the main analyst-based prospect lists, but he was on the ZIPS projection AND Chris Mitchell's (Fangraphs) KATOH projection as being top-100. Something in his profile makes projection systems really like him. I'm guessing they like that he was young for his age but an average-to-above-average hitter and that did a really good job of controlling the strike zone during his time in the minors. 

here's hoping they are right.

[Old Twins Cap]

I watch a lot of Yankees games on MLB dot com.Yankees are high on Murphy, and he did nothing to disappoint.

 

The Yankee kingdom is large, and has critics, plus a long history in baseball, and their fans and hangers-ons, including MEDIA, are discriminating in the extreme.

 

Ergo:   You don't get to be the Yankees Number 2 catcher, unless Yankee Kingdom is willing to have you be their Number one catcher. Not to mention, their manager, Joe Girardi, a former Yankee catcher, and head chieftain of Yankee nation. Because, catchers get hurt, ALL THE TIME, and generally, need to be given a break, every week, if not one in five days.

 

Kid Murphy is worth something.  He can play.  He's got make-up.  He cares about doing his job.He's got training, watchful eyes have been on him ALL THE TIME.Every day.

 

We do not know, nor can we, how a kid this young, who won the confidence of Yankee Kingdom, will develop.

 

Will Hicks or Murphy develop themselves better over time?Whose character is in a better gear to advance? 

 

Twins have a front-row seat.They scouted Murphy as a teen and have had Hicks since he was 18.

 

I like the odds that the Twins know what they are doing.

 

I think Murphy is solid.I hate losing Hicks, but he is balding, at 26, and we do have Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Arcia, Walker, and other options.

 

 

[USAFChief]

Hmmm. Twitter handle "JRMurphy. According to BBRef, goes by "J R."

 

J. R.

 

It's all becoming clear to me now.

[GP830]

Real Question-- Is it possible that the Twins aren't done addressing their catching needs, and that Murphy is a depth for depth acquisition? 

 

Also, if the Nats sign Weiters, as some are speculating they will try to do, I think Ramos would be a great fit back north. 

 

A Storen, Ramos for Plouffe and another legit piece may be a fit. 

[USAFChief]

Real Question-- Is it possible that the Twins aren't done addressing their catching needs, and that Murphy is a depth for depth acquisition?

 

I had the same question in the back of my mind.

 

I doubt it, though.

[DaveW]

If they traded Hicks for Murphy to essentially become the back up catcher that would be even more disappointing in some ways. You don't give up a real asset (which Hicks was and would have continued to be) for a back up.