What do we know about John Ryan Murphy?

[DaveW]

 

 

Kid Murphy is worth something.   He's got make-up.  He cares about doing his job.He's got training, watchful eyes have been on him ALL THE TIME.Every day.

 

You can say that about 90% of any orgs top 30 prospects.

 

Nunez, Eric Duncan and many more also "earned the love of Yankee nation" it doesn't mean much.

[GP830]

If they traded Hicks for Murphy to essentially become the back up catcher that would be even more disappointing in some ways. You don't give up a real asset (which Hicks was and would have continued to be) for a back up.

Right, but realistically was Hicks going to be more than a 4th OF with us? One month of significant productivity over 3 years does not a starter make.

 

If the Angels are interested in Plouffe, as we've been told they may be- there may be room for addition catching help there. If the Nats are shopping Ramos, there may be a fit there.

[DaveW]

 

Right, but realistically was Hicks going to be more than a 4th OF with us?

If everything breaks right in regards to Rosario, Buxton and Kepler? Yeah then Hicks is a 4th OF (but prob not until mid to late 2015 at the very earliest) but rarely do things break right in every scenario, especially when you are talking about three very young players in Rosario, Buxton and Kepler.

Again, the problem isn't trading Hicks, the problem is getting a low upside/bad value guy in return for him. It sucks even more that really there was no immediate need to just trade Hicks for anything! Buxton and Kepler are more than likely going to start in AAA anyways, which would have left you with an OF of- Rosario-Hicks-Arcia? to start the year, and we all know that Arcia has plenty of question marks as well.

[dougd]

The 2014 preseason Baseball Prospectus said:   In his first season spent exclusively behind the plate, he provided correct answers to both questions on the catch-and-throw quiz: His framing skills saved an estimated 18 runs between Double- and Triple-A—fifth-most in the upper minors—and he erased over 37 percent of attempted basestealers.... Murphy’s offense suffered in a September cup of coffee, but his success over the first five months of the season raised his ceiling above “backup.” He'll be 28 when Brian McCann's contract expires, though.

 

The 2015 version was not as upbeat. While "he acquitted himself nicely"...,  "he's just kind of okay at everything. Given what's out there on the market at the catching position, being okay at everything makes for a quality backup catcher in this league".

[Otto von Ballpark]

If the Angels are interested in Plouffe, as we've been told they may be- there may be room for addition catching help there.

I don't see how, the Angels are losing their starting catcher in FA too.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Thank you for quoting Law on the site!

Sincerely,
People like me that's too cheap to subscribe to ESPN Insider

 

KLAW is the only reason I still pay......ESPN continues to provide less and less content I'm interested in on their site.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sorry I probably watched 50% of the games he played in, in some way or form. Being in NY the Yankees are often on a TV somewhere at some point, and unfortunately most of the people I deal with on a daily basis are Yankee fans, so I do know quite a bit about the team and the players. From everything I have read, seen and the stats I have seen, Murphy just doesn't look like anything more than a backup catcher or a stop gap catcher, sorry if I'm not going to get excited about trading away a 5 tool former top 40 prospect who plays a premium position and plays it damn well for him. (Yes, Hicks hasn't "lit it up" but a lot of that has to do with how the Twins rushed him and handled him) I bet Hicks hits 20/20 easily next year and becomes a nice cog on the Yankees team.

 

We just gave up too much for a player with not enough upside IMO, Arcia or Vargas for Murphy? Sure, sign me up. Meyer for Murphy? Not as cool with it, but I would be fine.

 

Hicks for Murphy? Yuck.

My sentiments are close to this though I'm not as high on Hicks and not as low on Murphy.

 

Arcia or Vargas would have been great trades.

 

But, again, this comes down to personal evaluation. I'd give up Hicks in a heartbeat before I gave up Meyer. If we're talking upside and team need, Meyer is a much better bet to keep if you're the Twins GM. Even if he's a power eighth inning arm, that's a HUGE need for the Twins, never mind if he suddenly figures it out and becomes a starter (because, in essence, the bulk of the argument to keep Hicks is a hope he simply "figures it out" at some point).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

(because, in essence, the bulk of the argument to keep Hicks is a hope he simply "figures it out" at some point).

Starting when he was activated from the DL in early July, Hicks posted a 109 wRC+ the rest of the season, over almost 300 PA.  Small sample, but it was without the benefit of platooning, the aid of BABIP luck (.282 during that stretch, lower than any of his pro seasons except his disastrous 2013 debut), or unusual peripherals (other than his season-long reduction in K%).

 

And for all the talk of platooning, here's his 2015 line vs. RHP adjusted for his career BABIP (which is still a little shy of league BABIP overall):

 

.265/.330/.388, .718 OPS, ~96 OPS+, ~98 wRC+

 

That's basically Eddie Rosario's overall wRC+ in 2015, plus Hicks mashes LHP on top of that (139 wRC+ vs LHP in 2015, 125 career).

 

[Twins33]

I think when people mention Hicks they should really stop saying how good his "second half" was. He had an INSANE July. That's it.

 

.247/.293/.301 May through June

.346/.424/.577 in July alone

.222/.291/.370 August through October

 

One of these things is not like the other. 

 

I'm not saying he can't figure it out, but one insane month of production doesn't prove he has figured it out. He had one great month. He still can figure it out with the Yankees, but maybe he doesn't. Hicks is still very much an unknown. I, personally, would not feel comfortable saying a guy has turned a corner based on one month when the other 5 months say otherwise...especially 2+ months of bad after his supposed "corner turn."

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 .247/.293/.301 May through June

.346/.424/.577 in July alone

.222/.291/.370 August through October

 

One of these things is not like the other. 

His peripherals (BB%, K%, and ISO) were overall just fine August through October.  His BABIP was .245 in that time, though, well below his career and league norms.

I like getting a catcher, but it does look like the Twins just traded a guy coming off a low BABIP stretch for a guy coming off a high BABIP stretch, which is a risky move.

[Twins33]

 

His peripherals (BB%, K%, and ISO) were overall just fine August through October.  His BABIP was .245 in that time, though, well below his career and league norms.

I like getting a catcher, but it does look like the Twins just traded a guy coming off a low BABIP stretch for a guy coming off a high BABIP stretch, which is a risky move.

I agree it's risky, but I still can't say Hicks turned a corner. The results weren't where they needed to be in order for me to say that. He had one great month. At some point, the results have to be there. There's no way of knowing that he truly turned a corner until we see how he does next year and now we'll be seeing it done in a different ballpark which is more hitter friendly. We can look at BB%, K%, and ISO all day, but if he's just going to continue to be a .245-.250 average guy with a .330 OBP (or less) and a below .400 SLG then the Twins gave up a decent/average CF. Nothing more, nothing less. Valuable, sure, but the Twins really really really need a catcher.

 

I have no clue if this is a good trade or not. No one will for a few years. Murphy looks like an obvious upgrade over Suzuki (not hard to do, I know). It's a big position of need while OF is much less of a need.

 

Right now all I see is that we gave up a average starting CF/4th OF type for a possible starting catcher, which we have none of.

[Shane Wahl]

 

Oh. OK, I guess.  

 

I figured it was sarcasm because of the Hicks being a 20/20 guy and gold glover.  I mean, I liked the guy but, no.  He doesn't hit RHP well enough to do that and his defense looks good (I like it better than the stats) but he's not a gold glove guy.

 

He was 11/13 last year in 390 plate appearances.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree it's risky, but I still can't say Hicks turned a corner. The results weren't where they needed to be in order for me to say that. He had one great month. At some point, the results have to be there.

BB%, K%, and ISO are results, results that were missing from his performances in 2013-2014 but were there for longer than just a month in 2015.

 

Given that it was just one season, a season he started in AAA, there's almost no level of results that would conclusively say Hicks turned a corner.  Same with Murphy's limited backup duty in NY.  Beyond addressing positional needs, it seems like both clubs are placing a bet on these 2015 samples going forward, and it should be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Twins33]

 

BB%, K%, and ISO are results, results that were missing from his performances in 2013-2014 but were there for longer than just a month in 2015.

They're results that helped him in one month out of three. Not exactly what he or anyone wants. He was still bad in two out of the three months.

 

I like the improvement in those stats, but if Hicks does well in those, but continuously puts up lines like .222/.291/.370 as he did August through October then you're not going to say he's good. Unlucky, sure, but you're definitely not going to say he's good.

[Otto von Ballpark]

They're results that helped him in one month out of three.

No, they are results that helped him all year. BABIP is the result that only helped in one month (and his month at AAA).

 

And I guarantee the Yankees are looking more at his year long peripherals than his monthly BABIP.

 

No guarantee that he's good, of course he could wind up a low BABIP hitter like Dozier without as much power, but I have a feeling the Yankees are looking at the peripherals and betting otherwise.

[Twins33]

 

No, they are results that helped him all year. BABIP is the result that only helped in one month (and his month at AAA).

And I guarantee the Yankees are looking more at his year long peripherals than his monthly BABIP.

No guarantee that he's good, of course he could wind up a low BABIP hitter like Dozier without as much power, but I have a feeling the Yankees are looking at the peripherals and betting otherwise.

Fine, they're results that helped him be a not good player all year except for one month which was aided by BABIP. Either way, he was a not good player last year. His future may turn out okay if he can put up a much better line then he did last year and if he doesn't then he's just an average CF/4th OF. That's all he's proven to be so far.

 

If you're happy with lines like .247/.293/.301 and .222/.291/.370 for huge chunks of the season, that's fine. If Mauer or Dozier, or anyone really, put up lines like that...you would say it was bad...because it is. Improved BB%, K%, and ISO should help him become a better player, but so far it hasn't because those lines are bad. Very, very bad. No one clamors for a guy who gets on base that little for huge chunks of the season. No one clamors for guys who SLG less than .400 (even though lots of people really like Revere). Hicks did those things for nearly the entire season.

 

And I'm honestly not trying to slam that guy. I like Hicks, but he was very frustrating to watch offensively and sometimes even defensively. I'm just saying you can't say he was good last year except for one month and in that month he played out of his mind good. He was average to below average the rest of the year. He can get better and if he keeps going in the right direction he should get better but some guys don't and that's the reality. 

[stringer bell]

Reading this thread is very interesting. We can find stats that project major improvement, but the numbers overall are underwhelming. I know he looked like a far better hitter in 2015 than he did in the two previous years.