Escobar, Dozier and Plouffe: Extension talk

[DaveW]

 

Can you provide specific examples? In TR's many years of service to our favorite team, I can not think of anything that even remotely qualifies as being bizarre.

Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Brian Dozier etc

[dxpavelka]

 

This strategy worked out good for the wins with Joe Mauer.

They did extend Mauer a year before they actually had to.

 

[dxpavelka]

3 more years of team control.  If a better option is not available in 3 years something has gone horribly wrong from a player development standpoint that having Escobar under contract is not even remotely going to fix.

[jorgenswest]

 

3 more years of team control.  If a better option is not available in 3 years something has gone horribly wrong from a player development standpoint that having Escobar under contract is not even remotely going to fix.

 

There are 4 shortstops that have a better than 100+ OPS over the last two years. Tulowitzki has the fewest at bats of the 4 at 798.

 

Tulowitzki

Crawford

Peralta

Escobar.

 

Maybe it doesn't need fixing. Maybe they should have realized that after 2014.

 

Do we realize that few shortstops hit league average or better

 

[mudcat14]

I love Escobar on this team.  Would prefer he is in a utility role with frequent playing time.  I'm done with Dozier however.  I'd trade him and Plouffe, even if just for prospects.  My 2016 infield from 3B to 1B is:

 

Sano

Santana

Polanco

Mauer

 

Keep both Escobar and Nunez as insurance and depth. 

[howieramone2]

 

Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Brian Dozier etc

Blackburn and Baker got hurt, that's part of the game and far from bizarre. Need more info on why Dozier, etc. were bizarre.

[DaveW]

Blackburn and Baker got hurt, that's part of the game and far from bizarre. Need more info on why Dozier, etc. were bizarre.

them getting hurt is a perfect example on why you don't buy out those arb years.... Blackburn also wasn't very good even when he was healthy FYI

[jun]

I love Escobar on this team.  Would prefer he is in a utility role with frequent playing time.  I'm done with Dozier however.  I'd trade him and Plouffe, even if just for prospects.  My 2016 infield from 3B to 1B is:

 

Sano

Santana

Polanco

Mauer

 

Keep both Escobar and Nunez as insurance and depth.

Are you kidding?

Santana??????????????????????? PLEASE no more Danny Santana.

Polanco can hit, he still needs to work on fielding though.

No doubt in my mind that Escobar should be the starting shortstop from now on.

I would make Nunez the utility man. He can hit and play adequate defense.

[ashbury]

Polanco can hit,

Eventually at the major league level, but not yet, IMO. A year at AAA please.

 

And yes, as for the defense, either some things about his arm need to be improved if he's to stick at shortstop, or else the move to second needs to happen soon.

[Mike Sixel]

I would wait one more year, one more year is not going to make his rate excessive, imo. That said, he is an undervalued player, but Molitor and the fans. I think he's a legit MLB SS, and they should start him there all of next year. I don't want Danny Santana anywhere near SS next year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd say you wait a year with Escobar, but he's penciled in as the starting SS for 2016.  How he fares in that role dictates whether he should be extended.

 

I think you trade Plouffe.  No extension there. 

 

Not liking that Santana is out of options.  He's not ready.  Are we sure he's out of options?  For some reason I thought he had one left. 

[Mike Sixel]

Plouffe is a much harder choice for me than Escobar.....

 

I have no idea if Sano can play 3B, and also keep his legs healthy while playing in the field (two different thoughts there.....). Plouffe is a nice player, but I don't think you extend him.

 

I would trade Trevor under the correct conditions:

1. You are pretty sure Sano can play the field.

2. You have a decent backup for Sano, just in case. (that is not Danny S, btw).

3. You get a MLB catcher, or close to the majors catcher, or you get a real stud SP prospect (though that makes me nervous, see Span for Meyer for why).

[Loosey]

I don't understand the hurry in extending Escobar.  He has 3 years of Arb left.  Let him play out 1-2 full years.  If he goes nuts next year to the tune of something like .275/.330/.450 then buy out his 2 years and a year or two tops of FA.  If he has a similar year to this year, which was very good I would still possibly wait another year and then if he has one more good year buy out the final arb year and a few FA years.  By that time a SS prospect may be ready to contribute as a utility player/platoon etc until it their time.  Or if the contract is team friendly enough and Escobar outplays even the extension you can trade him if someone is ready to take his place or trade a prospect.  But now is not the time for an extension.  Sano extension however, I would be on board with that sooner rather than later.

[kab21]

 

them getting hurt is a perfect example on why you don't buy out those arb years.... Blackburn also wasn't very good even when he was healthy FYI

I thought you were being critical of Ryan not extending longer contracts buying out FA years.  That would have hurt more in those two cases.

 

FWIW - The Twins actually did the optimal thing with Baker.  They held a reasonable option on Baker's first FA year (effectively buying it out if they chose).  They declined it when he underwent TJ.  It would be harder to come out of the deal better on that.  Blackburn is the reason why you don't give guaranteed contracts to guys that have exceeded expectations.  He just shouldn't have had guaranteed money regardless if it bought out FA years or not.

[dxpavelka]

 

There are 4 shortstops that have a better than 100+ OPS over the last two years. Tulowitzki has the fewest at bats of the 4 at 798.

 

Tulowitzki

Crawford

Peralta

Escobar.

 

Maybe it doesn't need fixing. Maybe they should have realized that after 2014.

 

Do we realize that few shortstops hit league average or better

Average isn't the goal.

[nicksaviking]

 

Average isn't the goal.

 

What's the goal?  This team hasn't had a consistently average SS in decades. 

 

Wasn't everyone's hope that the Santana, Polanco or Gordon would emerge and be a .750 OPS kind of guy and solidify the position for years to come?  The team lucked out and found Escobar when no one was looking.  I can't imagine people seriously expect one of those guys to put up better numbers than Escobar has the past two seasons.  Anyone who is, is looking a gift horse in the mouth and hoping for a long shot.  Those guys might be good, but it's still unlikely those guys put up the kind of offensive number some seem to expect.

 

Don't extend him yet, but at this point, this team is making a huge mistake if Escobar isn't long-term option #1 until he proves his last two years were a fluke.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

If Esco can put up 2-3 WAR next year and the year after.....as a SS, that will really help solidify this roster. A team w/few weaknesses and a couple of super stars is a winning team. Esco, imo, is part of that future the next 2 years. Now we need Buxton and Hicks to get to that consistent level, where the Twins don't need to worry about them. That is when they should go get the final piece or two (like, imo, next yaer).

[Jham]

For me, the talk of extensions boil down to 1 thing: Do you expect Esco/Dozier/Plouffe to exceed their current pay levels during arb/FA, and if so, can you extend them for less?  

 

Most of the arguments seem to surround whether or not the player discussed will exceed their current pay level or not.  There's no way to know.  And the arguments are moot since we don't know the years and money.  It's sort of like asking whether it's worth calling a bet in a Texas Hold'em game with Queen Ten of diamonds.  The right answer is maybe, depending on the price and your particular read of the other cards dealt and your opponent.  

 

Escobar is a close call.  If we can sign him at utility infield money, with the only risk being injury, then I jump on that.  If we have to pay him like a top 10 SS, then obviously not.  Presumably we'd be offering more guaranteed money in exchange for less yearly salary.  It's a balance.

 

I'm ready to trade Dozier rather than betting on his ability to continue slugging or learning to drive the ball to right.  I want to see Rosario's arm make a difference in the infield.  Probably won't happen.  Polanco should be solid enough.  

 

Plouffe to me, is a guy you keep.  He's been solid.  I don't consider him super dependable, but he's a good player, and a better defender than Sano.  

 

 

 

 

[nokomismod]

I would play wait and see with Escobar for one more year. I really liked how he performed this season and last season. It's nice to have someone who not only makes the routine plays, but comes up with clutch hits.

 

On Plouffe, I really hope they keep him in the near term. I don't think you have to extend him yet, but I want to seem him playing 3B, 1B, and DH next year. If Sano can remain healthy and can do the job defensively next season while sharing 3b with Plouffe, then the Twins could look to trade Trevor.

 

I have stated this a few too many times, but I think the guy to trade high on is Dozier. I like the options the Twins have at 2b with Polanco and if he struggles then Rosario. I would try to make this deal early enough in the off season so Eddie knows that he should polish up his infield defense.

[Thrylos]

If you keep extending everyone in an Almost Good Enough team, how do you make that team Good Enough or a Champion?   Magic?

[Jham]

 

If you keep extending everyone in an Almost Good Enough team, how do you make that team Good Enough or a Champion?   Magic?

 

I've been wracking my brain over which positions we can upgrade.  The easiest spot is 1B, but that's not going anywhere.  Trading Plouffe or Dozier would appear to be downgrades.  I could see improvements in all OF positions and rotation, but we already have a ton of guys there that are all only OK.  Most of the spots in the rotation are entrenched.  As others have eluded, SS would be tough to appreciably improve on.  That leaves me with the outfield, catcher, and bull pen as places to improve through trades or FA signings.  

 

If Hunter walks and Plouffe is traded like many want, that's 45 HR we have to make up for (let alone defensive losses).  I think Sano can make up 15 of those, but I don't see us signing a corner OF or DH who will hit 30.  For that reason, I'd say we have to keep one of those guys, if not both.   Trade Rosario or Buxton who would likely bring a pile in return.

 

Where do you see us upgrading?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Average isn't the goal.

A league-average offensive shortstop isn't average.

 

There's a reason why only four SS in baseball have hit above league average over the past two years.

[Thrylos]

 

I've been wracking my brain over which positions we can upgrade.  The easiest spot is 1B, but that's not going anywhere.  Trading Plouffe or Dozier would appear to be downgrades.  I could see improvements in all OF positions and rotation, but we already have a ton of guys there that are all only OK.  Most of the spots in the rotation are entrenched.  As others have eluded, SS would be tough to appreciably improve on.  That leaves me with the outfield, catcher, and bull pen as places to improve through trades or FA signings.  

 

If Hunter walks and Plouffe is traded like many want, that's 45 HR we have to make up for (let alone defensive losses).  I think Sano can make up 15 of those, but I don't see us signing a corner OF or DH who will hit 30.  For that reason, I'd say we have to keep one of those guys, if not both.   Trade Rosario or Buxton who would likely bring a pile in return.

 

Where do you see us upgrading?

 

Where do the Twins need to upgrade, and what is an upgrade?   Here is a very telling slashline:

 

.238/.292/.370  that is the Twins' LHB line against RHP.  And it is 23% worse than league average (and that is their lowest OPS split.)

 

and here is another one:  .198/.252/.304  Team slash line in losses.  (and the Twins were 12th in the AL in OPS, 15th in OBP and 14th in BA out of 15 teams)

So hitting and lefty hitting more specifically is due for an upgrade (and part of the reason the Twins lost.)  If they solidify their pen, but still score one run in 4 hits, as they have done recently, they will fail (again)

 

So:   Sano over Plouffe at 3B will be an upgrade (Sano: 146 OPS+ and still has not entered his prime, Plouffe 99 OPS+ and will be 30 next season.)  The Twins need LHBs and specifically OBP hitters.  A full season of Rosario might help, but his is a contact hitter who will not take many walks.  .289 OBP (.281 against RHPs) and .022 IsoD will not cut it.   Mauer had the worst OPS in his career (.718) and Hicks hit .236/.303/.360, Escobar .257/.317/.428, and Vargas .185/.224/.294 as LHBs.  Where can they put them?  Catcher, DH and OF.   Getting Arcia and his career .250/.322/.485 at on OF spot and hoping that Vargas will return to 2014 form at DH is a start.   But they should go after a decent LHB catcher for an everyday catcher (Bargain FA Bryan Pena hitting .295/.347/.353 against RHBs might be a win-win here, and start Suzuki who hits better against LHPs against lefties) and another LH contact bat (That might be Kepler or might not.)   Would I be happier if they traded (let's say Dozier for Dee Gordon) for some above average LH sticks?  Of course.  But that's not how they roll... 

 

 

 

 

 

[dxpavelka]

 

What's the goal?  This team hasn't had a consistently average SS in decades. 

 

Wasn't everyone's hope that the Santana, Polanco or Gordon would emerge and be a .750 OPS kind of guy and solidify the position for years to come?  The team lucked out and found Escobar when no one was looking.  I can't imagine people seriously expect one of those guys to put up better numbers than Escobar has the past two seasons.  Anyone who is, is looking a gift horse in the mouth and hoping for a long shot.  Those guys might be good, but it's still unlikely those guys put up the kind of offensive number some seem to expect.

 

Don't extend him yet, but at this point, this team is making a huge mistake if Escobar isn't long-term option #1 until he proves his last two years were a fluke.

The goal is to win the World Series.  The goal is not to put up the numbers Escobar has the last 2 years.  The goal is to put up BETTER numbers than Escobar has the NEXT 2 years.  The goal is to put up better numbers the next 2 years or 3 years or 5 years.  It doesn't matter if it's Escobar or Santana or Polanco or Gordon or someone else who does it.  The entire roster has to improve or else you find yourselves continueing to settle for 83 win seasons.  If Escobar is not going to improve, and I don't see him doing so, then the search for improvement must continue.

 

[DaveW]

I thought you were being critical of Ryan not extending longer contracts buying out FA years. That would have hurt more in those two cases.

 

FWIW - The Twins actually did the optimal thing with Baker. They held a reasonable option on Baker's first FA year (effectively buying it out if they chose). They declined it when he underwent TJ. It would be harder to come out of the deal better on that. Blackburn is the reason why you don't give guaranteed contracts to guys that have exceeded expectations. He just shouldn't have had guaranteed money regardless if it bought out FA years or not.

I wouldn't have given them the contracts to begin with.

 

I'm saying, it's pointless to buy out arb years with no FA years attached, the club doesn't have any upside in that case.

[kab21]

 

I wouldn't have given them the contracts to begin with.

I'm saying, it's pointless to buy out arb years with no FA years attached, the club doesn't have any upside in that case.

Except in Blackburn and Baker's cases they did have an option for a FA year.  The club did have upside in both cases.  Sort of at least in Blackburn's.  A lot of upside in Baker's.  He was actually pretty good.