How Many Wins Will It Take?

[John Bonnes]

...and how will the Twins reach that mark?

 

The 2nd wild card spot is held by the Rangers who are just five games over .500. So two questions:

 

1) How many wins will the second Wild Card team have after the season is over?

 

a. 84-78 (six games over .500)?

b. 85-77 (eight games over .500?)

c. 86-76 (10)?

d. 87-75 (12)?

 

2) Can the Twins go on a run to reach those marks? As of Monday the 24th, they're at 63-61 with 38 games left to play. So they would need to go....

 

a. 21-17 to get to 84

b. 22-16 to get to 85

c. 23-15 to get to 86

d. 24-14 to get to 87 wins.

 

3) How do they do it? Break it down however you like - series by series, homestand by roadtrip, home record vs road record, good team vs bad teams, etc. (Here'e their schedule, if you want....)

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2015-schedule-scores.shtml

 

 

I'll start:

1) 85

2) 22 wins. I need 22, Huh....

 

1) 2 of 3 from the Rays

2) 4 of 6 at home vs HOU and CWS (including possibly sweeping the Sox)

3) 5 of 9 on road vs HOU/KC/CWS (including possibly sweeping the Sox)

4) 6-4 at home, including a split with the Angels

5) They take 5 of 7 on their road trip to CLE and DET. That already gets them to 85 wins....

6) Celebrate at home vs the Royals, either by winning #86 or watching someone else lose. 

 

[SwainZag]

With the Rangers, Twins, Angels, O's and Rays all in the hunt I am going to throw out a guess that someone gets hot and it takes 87-88 wins to take that 2nd spot.

[stringer bell]

I think 85 gets it done, with perhaps two teams reaching that number and a play-in game. Given their schedule, the Twins are the most likely to fade (see the "Woo Hoo" thread), but they also have the chance to beat almost all of the teams in the hunt with them. I think Toronto and New York are foregone conclusions, but I am not ready to crown the Astros yet. They have a lousy road record and no history in a pennant race and they have a lot of road games remaining. I might add that my suspicion of the 'stros might be because I'm jealous of their rebuilding success.

[pbrezeasap]

Just looking at the Rangers schedule I would put a low guess on their wins for the remainder of the season at 22, so I'll say at least 86 wins just to force a Game 163

 

First look at the Twins schedule:

They take 9 of 13 from CWS and CLE

Split the 12 with DET and KC

Split 6 with HOU

Take 2 of 3 from TB

Split 4 with LAA

 

That only gives them 83 wins, so hopefully they can take 3 of 4 from LAA and 4 of 6 from HOU and steal another one somewhere else. Maybe they get lucky and avoid Kluber in all the remaining CLE games and take 10 of 13 from CWS and CLE.

 

 

[old nurse]

Texas has 19 games with Oakland, San Diego, Seattle, and Detroit plus 10 with the Orioles and Angels. If the Rangers  realy are a decent team they may even surge ahead of Houston.  The Twins would need a repeat of May and go like 28-10 to have any chance.

[TheLeviathan]

86 wins is my guess as well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yep, 86 here as well.

[Badsmerf]

Concur with 86. If I had to guess, my guess is the rangers. However, any of the teams in the hunt could get it done. Should be a fun end to the season.

[Mike Sixel]

86 or 87, I think. Someone will play over their current pace. I don't know who it will be, but the Rangers schedule looks favorable to them.....

[formerly33]

I'll go with 85-77 for the 2nd wildcard team. As stated above, the Twins would need to go 22-16 to reach that. I'm predicting that we go 18-20 to wrap up the season, but I won't go into the details of why and wherefore. Ya'll can serve my head on a silver platter if we do ... and don't forget to stick a fork in it.

 

Hm, let's see ... the teams I think will go are the Blue Jays and Yankees in the East, the Royals in the Central, and the Astros and Rangers/Angels in the West. The Rangers are hot right now and the Angels are not, but the Angels get to play the Twins in the middle of September, and I predict that unless they've really swooned (and if they do, the Twins just might surprise me and slip into the postseason unawares), they'll take off from there. The Rangers could even pass the Astros, but regardless of that possibility, the 'Stros are going. If I was held at gunpoint, I think I'd cut the Angels out and hand the division over to the Rangers. The way I look at it, the Royals have already clinched, even if not in numbers. There's just no way we're going to pass them and even squeeze them out of the wildcard spot … that would take some really great Royals losses to pull that one off. The Yankees and Blue Jays are going to be fun; I'm rooting for the Blue Jays, and they're hot right now. The Yankees appear to be doing good, but we all know that it was the Twins they just swept. I'm just going to go ahead cut the O's and Rays, even though they're still theoretically in the race.

 

I guess that looks a lot like the current standings, so maybe I'm just being boring and have little to no foresight. I just thought I'd throw my predictions out there, though. Can't hurt us any ... nothing but perhaps my pride. 

 

Oh, and I've often wondered if it's my fondness of humility that keeps me rooting for the Twins, so maybe I want my pride to be damaged just a little at the end of the season ... ?

[ScrapTheNickname]

86 is something to shoot for. 10 over .500. Let the chips fall after that. 86 would be a great finish for the Twins.

[gocgo]

It's baseball and anything can happen, but I'd say the odds are not in our favor.  I think 85 is the bare minimum to get in if all goes in our favor.

 

1. Take 1 of 3 from the Rays (pitching matchups are in their favor).
2. Take  2 of 3 from the Astros at home
3. Take 2 of 3 from the White Sox (sweeps are not common).
4. Take 1 of 3 from the Astros in Houston.
5. Take 1 of 3 from the Royals in KC (they are just better than us).
6. Take 2 of 3 from the White Sox in Chicago
7. Take 2 of 3 at home against Detroit (we are better than them)
8. Take 3 of 4 from Angels a split (they seem to be reeling a bit)
9. Take  2 of 3 at home from Indians.
10. Take 2 of 3 in Detroit
11. Take 2 of 4 in Cleveland Split.
12. and finally 2 of 3 against the Royals as they are resting up.

 

That is 22 wins to give us 85.

[blairpaul715]

 86 is my guess

[DaveW]

They can get to 87 but they just need two or three more boosts IMO of any of the following:

 

1. Mauer starts hitting lights out.

2. Berrios comes up and pitches well.

3. Hicks+Rosario+Buxton are the starting lineup within the next ten days and dominate.

4. Santana figures his **** out and pitches like a solid #2.

5. Perkins reverts to 2014 and 2015 first half form.

 

 

I think the following are most likely:

Mauer catches fire.

Hicks+Buxton+Rosario as the everyday OF give the pitching staff a boost defensively and provide three dangerous players at the plate and baseraths.

Perk comes back.

[norcaltwin]

What I'm excited about is that this topic and thread exists at all and Twins are being discussed. We've waited a long 4 years to talk about Twins being in the post season as September dawns!

 

[mickeymental]

how many wins will it take? one. at. a. time.

[ScrapTheNickname]

86 to be safe. Almost .600 from here on out. Each loss makes it tougher. Gotta win em.

[DaveW]

I think its a 3 team race from here on out:

Texas (obviously)

Twins (Yay!)

Angels

 

I can't take Tampa, Cleveland or Baltimore serious at this stage of the game, though if anyone is going to suddenly jump back in it would be Baltimore with that lineup and Bullpen.

 

Just keep Battlin.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think its a 3 team race from here on out:

Texas (obviously)

Twins (Yay!)

Angels

 

I can't take Tampa, Cleveland or Baltimore serious at this stage of the game, though if anyone is going to suddenly jump back in it would be Baltimore with that lineup and Bullpen.

 

Just keep Battlin.

I don't know if I even consider the Angels being in it at this point. They've been pretty bad for a month now. They'd have to correct course immediately to get back into this thing.

[DaveW]

 

I don't know if I even consider the Angels being in it at this point. They've been pretty bad for a month now. They'd have to correct course immediately to get back into this thing.

They have 7 more games vs Texas (including 4 to wrap up the season) and 4 against the Twins.

 

They are certainly still a threat. Having 2 of the best 5 hitters of the last 50 years (Trout+Pujols) helps.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They have 7 more games vs Texas (including 4 to wrap up the season) and 4 against the Twins.

 

They are certainly still a threat. Having 2 of the best 5 hitters of the last 50 years (Trout+Pujols) helps.

Ah, yes. Those head-to-head matchups could bring them back into the fold.

[wxman91]

Texas and Houston still have 7 to play and only 3 games separate them.  It is possible that if the Rangers continue to win, they could take the West.  That would make the Twins series in Houston pretty important.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't know if I even consider the Angels being in it at this point. They've been pretty bad for a month now. They'd have to correct course immediately to get back into this thing.

Part of the Angels' bad month has been a slumping Trout, and we all know he is fully capable of turning it around.  Their infield is a mess right now but otherwise their roster seems OK.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Part of the Angels' bad month has been a slumping Trout, and we all know he is fully capable of turning it around.  Their infield is a mess right now but otherwise their roster seems OK.

Oh yeah, it's not like they turned terrible overnight but it's tough to pass two teams and gain ~4 games in a month, especially given their recent play.

[stringer bell]

 

I don't know if I even consider the Angels being in it at this point. They've been pretty bad for a month now. They'd have to correct course immediately to get back into this thing.

Agree with you Brock, but the Angels have a sked full of the three teams in front of them and enough talent (Trout, Pujols) to get hot and win a lot of games. They aren't playing like it now, but they could "flip the switch" and get right back in the thing.

 

On Dave's larger point, Texas has seven games left with Houston. It isn't out of the realm that they could win 5 and make up the ground they are behind. That gives the Twins another target and they play the Astros again next weekend. I still think the "stros have a major slump left in them, particularly if the injuries don't heal.

 

Gee, I should probably read the posts on Page 2 before commenting. Just because my comments above are redundant doesn't make them wrong!

[Dantes929]

In 2006   the Twins needed to go 24-14 to win the division though of course they didn't know it at the time.   II am guessing a similar analysis at the time would have shown.

1. Twins need to take at least 6 of 7 from the Royals since all the games were at home and KC lost 100  games that year.   Result.  The Twins lost 3 of those games.

2.  Near the end it was said that Santana needs to run the table for them to have a chance.   Result.  We lost two of his last three starts.

3.   Twins were tied with 3 games left and we had a good Chicago team at home and Detroit had a 100 loss Royal team at home I am sure the thought was we had to sweep to tie and instead we won 1 game while Detroit got swept to win it outright.  

Of course the Tigers totally collapsed at the end of the season and the Twins finished hot.   Twins were then swept while Detroit got to the WS where they lost to a Cards team that had 83 regular season wins.

Just saying it rarely follows odds and projections which is what makes pennant chases fun.   Since the team that holds the spot by 1.5 games currently is on a pace for 85 wins that is the magic number I am guessing at.    Twins would need to go 18-14.    If they do this it will probably end up with a few losses to teams the consensus is they shouldn't lose to and wins against teams they are behind..  

[Dantes929]

 

With the Rangers, Twins, Angels, O's and Rays all in the hunt I am going to throw out a guess that someone gets hot and it takes 87-88 wins to take that 2nd spot.

Currently the Indians are ahead of the O's.    Odds are against them but they have beaten the odds before.

[SwainZag]

 

Currently the Indians are ahead of the O's.    Odds are against them but they have beaten the odds before.

 

Crazy what a week can do huh?  O's go 1-6 and the Indians went 5-1 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Currently the Indians are ahead of the O's.    Odds are against them but they have beaten the odds before.

 

 

Crazy what a week can do huh?  O's go 1-6 and the Indians went 5-1 

 

And we still have 7 more against the Indians, including 4 in Cleveland...

[jctwins]

I will guess 86.