Escobar's slash line since the Santana demotion

[NoCal]

Joe Sheehan, in discussing the Rangers, went back to an old maxim of Billy Beane's: The first third of the season is to see what you have; the second third of the season is for re-tooling and adjusting; and the last third of the season is to make your run for the post season. This sounds like the path that the Twins have taken this year, and giving Santana an extended look at shortstop fits this strategy. And it fits the overall strategy that the Twins follow - build from within, using trades as a supplemental tactic to the overall strategy. Requires patience and time (which ironically, Beane has not demonstrated in recent years). And with luck, you end up with a run like the Pirates are experiencing. 

[Major League Ready]

Look, I'm not dismissing other people's opinions...nor am I comparing two gentlemen as being equals necessarily...but...remember when rumors of the Twins trading for Tulo ran rampant? I was against such a move due to the cost of prospects as well as years and dollars owed financially. And I was, originally, in the Santana camp to open the season based on potential, overall athleticism and what he did last season. But I was also in full agreement that Escobar should be the guy, and should have been the guy sooner than the move was made.

 

And now where are we today?

 

Toronto gave up prospects and is on the hook for an over 30 veteran who has struggled past his initial appearances, has struggled with injury, and is still owed multiple years at $20M per.

 

Meanwhile, Escobar is years younger, multiple millions of dollars cheaper, is playing quality defense, providing above average offense, and is proving 2014 and his ST of this season weren't a fluke.

 

What I'm saying is, sometimes the smart play isn't the big gamble or big move. Rather, it can sometimes be patience and just plugging the right man in the right job.

I think the advocates of these moves just don’t give enough weight to the potential down side. If a Tulo type trade bomb it is fairly devastating for several years. Tying up those dollars limits other moves, including locking up some of the young guys that could be our core for many years. Then, what if those prospects you give up really pan out? Ouch. It could easily be the difference between making the playoffs or not in several seasons. The biggest problem is that the potential plus side all rests on one guy and one guy can get hurt or not perform.

 

Yes, the prospects route might not pan out but that failure does not cost 20M+/yr. You also have several prospects in one of these deals. If just one pans out decent it makes up for some of the plus side potential of the deal and you still have 20M+ to invest elsewhere. I just don't think the model works for a mid market team to give up substantial assets and pay this type of money. If you are going to pay that much then go get a free agent and keep your young talent. That young/cheap talent is essential when you are paying others big money.

 

Baseball is a little different than other businesses. These kinds of deals get done. However, anyone who has had P&L responsibility for this level of investment won’t touch this type of deal in what I will call a normal business for lack of a more definitive description. This is probably why I said HELL no instead of just no.

[TheLeviathan]

I was a big Tulo skeptic, but I was ok gambling for the price he was traded for, but damn if avoiding that deal doesn't look good right now.

 

I think this injury (call it a fluke if you want) will be the first of many Toronto deals with.

[Willihammer]

You could have anticipated. The guy who cut diary out of his diet gave his teammate a kiss and broke a scapula.

 

edit: "cracked," sorry.

[Willihammer]

Check Escobar's power dating back to his 2013 stint in AAA. I don't what exactly he did then, but he has been a markedly better hitter since that point, over 2 years ago.

His 2014 ISO was .131 which was right in line with his career. And through July this year it was .138. I want to believe he went Jose Bautista on us too. But, barring any specific identifiable change, it seems more likely he just went Danny Santana.

[Jham]

 

His 2014 ISO was .131 which was right in line with his career. And through July this year it was .138. I want to believe he went Jose Bautista on us too. But, barring any specific identifiable change, it seems more likely he just went Danny Santana.

 

Doesn't ISO just basically give us a percentage of extra base power hits/per hit?  Thus if a player hit more singles AND more extra base  hits, his ISO wouldn't really change?  And if it went up, wouldn't that be the identifiable change you were looking for?  His ISO is .189 which doesn't mean he's hitting better, but it does show he's hitting more extra base hits relative to singles.  This signifies a change in approach.

Esco OPS: 2013 - .628; 2014 - .721; 2015 - .767.  This is an upward trend covering 3 seasons.  He had 35 doubles last season.  He's hitting his peak as a 26 year old who is getting comfortable with steady playing time.  This might be his peak.  But he doesn't even have to be as good as he has been this year to be a highly valuable piece.  His BABIP is sitting at .309 which does not scream regression like Santana's BABIP did last season.  If anything, the way Esco has been stinging the ball would lead me to think he should actually have a higher BABIP with average luck (harder contact usually means more hits).  And his homerun tracker data shows that he should probably have more home runs with better luck as well.  

 

The consecutive seasons he's put up as an every day MLB SS is really starting to overshadow the prior years of minor league mediocrity in terms of statistical relevance in my opinion.  
 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Escobar was brought up pretty early.  I think we forget that.  Sometimes guys take a bit longer to develop.  Not sure if he's a classic case of the rule of 27, but he's clearly upping his production in advance of what should be his peak years.  Kind of hard not to like. 

 

I'm quite fine with him being the regular SS in 2016.  A > .750 OPS puts him well into the top half of SS offensively, and  his average to slightly better defense is icing on the cake.  Santana at this point needs to earn it, and if Escobar keeps doing this next year, you have trade chips in Polanco and Santana. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

His 2014 ISO was .131 which was right in line with his career. And through July this year it was .138. I want to believe he went Jose Bautista on us too. But, barring any specific identifiable change, it seems more likely he just went Danny Santana.

Oh, yes his recent hot streak isn't sustainable. I hope no one is arguing that. But his improved offensive output for the last 2+ years certainly looks sustainable, that is why I referenced that timeframe.

 

And his 2014 ISO wasn't "right in line" with his previous career, it was a career high at the time, at any level (outside his partial 2013 at AAA, which as I said appears to be when he took his big step forward at the plate -- I would doubt he could have taken another such permanent step forward the past month, though).

[Mike Sixel]

Yes, we never think of the downside......really.

 

If Tulo is better next year, which is somewhat likely given their history, will everyone come here and point out, over and over, how he's better?

[Brock Beauchamp]

i don't think the question is whether Escobar is an .850 OPS player, I think the question is whether he's a .750 OPS player.

 

It's possible Escobar is a player in the mold of Trevor Plouffe and, to an extent, Brian Dozier (though Dozier is better than Plouffe). They're decent-to-good players but not elite at the plate. Those players don't hit .280 and OPS at .800 month in, month out. They post .800+ months and .650 months. When combined, they end up in the .750-.800 range over the course of a season.

 

Escobar has been red-hot. I think it's short-sighted and naive to expect this to continue. He'll almost certainly regress, become mediocre/bad for awhile, and then get red-hot again (provided this streak isn't an aberration).

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm quite fine with him being the regular SS in 2016.  A > .750 OPS puts him well into the top half of SS offensively, and  his average to slightly better defense is icing on the cake.  Santana at this point needs to earn it, and if Escobar keeps doing this next year, you have trade chips in Polanco and Santana. 

 

As far as I can tell, the Twins have only had one > .750 OPS full season from a SS since Roy Smalley was traded, and only Zoilo's 1965 season prior to that.

 

Escobar is becoming one of my favorite players, probably because he's getting overlooked in favor of bigger name prospects who haven't come close to putting it together yet.

 

Also, he's doing this with a rather modest .308 BABIP and his hot steak has only seen it go to .343 for the past month.  This isn't Danny Santana.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

In fairness, at the time of the Tulo trade, Molitor's Plan A for shortstop was still "Danny Santana 4ever" and Plan B was probably still Nunez. Go figure.

[Major League Ready]

 

Yes, we never think of the downside......really.

 

If Tulo is better next year, which is somewhat likely given their history, will everyone come here and point out, over and over, how he's better?

 

 

Yes, we never think of the downside......really.

 

If Tulo is better next year, which is somewhat likely given their history, will everyone come here and point out, over and over, how he's better?

Mike,

 

I don't know exactly what people are thinking because like the rest of us evaluating the FO, we don't have all the facts.  However, I evaluate this function for the largest companies in the US so I think I offer a very qualified opinion when I say many of the positions that offered here with great passion would get you thrown out of the room (figuratively speaking) in the real world.  I would add that  the financial part of the equation gets very little consideration.  So, go ahead and come with the "really" stuff but the fact is that much of the "FO has no clue" stuff is offered without any actual experience managing similar situations.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yes, we never think of the downside......really.

 

If Tulo is better next year, which is somewhat likely given their history, will everyone come here and point out, over and over, how he's better?

 

I think if there was even a question of Tulo outproducing Escobar slightly right now we'd have 6 threads talking about it.  The pro-Tulo folks constantly downplayed his injury problems.

 

I think he'll produce when he's on the field at a much better rate next year.  I also think him being out will be a regular occurrence for the duration of his career. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think if there was even a question of Tulo outproducing Escobar slightly right now we'd have 6 threads talking about it.  The pro-Tulo folks constantly downplayed his injury problems.

 

I think he'll produce when he's on the field at a much better rate next year.  I also think him being out will be a regular occurrence for the duration of his career. 

 

I think that's fair, but I do think some people acknowledged the risk, and were willing to take it. Others, for this year they look right, were less willing to take on that risk.

 

That's kind of my point, not all the posts about Tulo were hot takes that were not well considered, on both sides of the discussion.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think that's fair, but I do think some people acknowledged the risk, and were willing to take it. Others, for this year they look right, were less willing to take on that risk.

 

That's kind of my point, not all the posts about Tulo were hot takes that were not well considered, on both sides of the discussion.

 

I was in the camp that was willing to take the risk at the price he was sold for, the problem was that anyone saying "The guy has been nothing short of fragile" was shouted down about how much WAR the guy could put up in 50 games.

 

I really don't care about 50 games of WAR.  I care about acquiring guys that will play well for more than 50 games a year and I'm very doubtful Tulo can do that going forward.

[Major League Ready]

With the preface that this would have been a difficult sign, go after Ian Desmond instead.  Why give up assets and pay the big money.  He is a year younger and less injury prone.   Yes, Desmond will be in big demand but as a general rule a thumb it just makes more sense to me avoid paying for a guy who signed a big deal with someone else and then also giving up significant assets.

 

Here is the really good news.  It looks like we have a solution at SS.  Let's focus our efforts on a C and RPs.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Tulo with Toronto:        .232/ .314 /.368 /.682

Escobar since Aug 1:  .315/ .370 / .591 /.961

 

Here is a fun stat.  Look at Escobar's batting in wins and losses this year:

in Wins 54 games     .314 .353 .581 .934 
in Losses 57 games  .215 .260 .313 .573

 

I was definitely in the "trade for Tulo" camp.  At the time, i didn't believe Escobar represented an above-average option.  My thinking was that the Twins should seek to get, and be willing to pay in salary and prospects, an elite-level player at an up-the-middle position.  They had one of these players for years in Mauer, and this gave the team a big advantage over other teams.  

 

Those players are few and far between.  The Twins only never sign those players via free agency.  So I think it would have been a worthwhile move.  Perhaps I should have factored in the risk of injury for Tulo more than I did.  

 

Now, Escobar is playing like an above average player, and Tulo is hurt.  It's easy to second guess.  But the strategy of trying to take risks to land elite players is still sound in my view.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Now, Escobar is playing like an above average player, and Tulo is hurt.  It's easy to second guess.  But the strategy of trying to take risks to land elite players is still sound in my view.

 

I totally agree, the key is recognizing all the risks.  That was the problem.  No one predicted this from Escobar and would've been laughed off the site for suggesting it.  Baseball is a funny sport

[USAFChief]

I'm still highly skeptical of Escobar going forward, but he's done nothing to confirm my skepticism since he got the job.

 

He has hit at an astounding level, and handled the job defensively.