Duffey to stay in Rotation, May to bullpen

[h2oface]

It always amazes me when folks want a young player, and player you cultured in the system, to do good just so you can trade him for a different prospect to basically start over and hope that prospect can become what your new MLB player finally has. I am no fan of Terry Ryan making the trades, but I am sure glad that someone with the former philosophy is making the trades.

[DocBauer]

 

I don't think you HAVE to trade anyone. We're seeing right now the value of depth in starting pitching. And would anyone be shocked if Duffey moved to the bullpen when Hughes gets back and kicks some butt out there for a bit? That could be valuable to have sitting in AAA, too.

 

I don't think it's wise to look at ways to improve the club by looking at who on your team to shop around. Instead, you look at who you need to get. Then fill in the blanks when you move the guy that other teams covet. For instance, if Duffey and Milone look sharp the rest of the season, that makes it a lot easier to include Gibson or May in a trade if someone is sniffing around. You might not be moving the worst player, but you're likely to get a lot better player back that way. 

Exactly!

 

Lots and lots of talk, for example, of moving Plouffe this off season for a young catcher. And there is no question he is a valuable trade commodity. But as someone stated recently, I believe it was Leviathan, make a list of young catchers, contact the various ballclubs, and see what it would cost you.

 

How do we know that a package of Polanco, Duffey and someone, as an example, wouldn't be more in keeping with what a team would want/need for their young catcher? You end up keeping your 3B/1B/Primary DH rotation alive and well.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't think you HAVE to trade anyone. We're seeing right now the value of depth in starting pitching. And would anyone be shocked if Duffey moved to the bullpen when Hughes gets back and kicks some butt out there for a bit? That could be valuable to have sitting in AAA, too.

 

I don't think it's wise to look at ways to improve the club by looking at who on your team to shop around. Instead, you look at who you need to get. Then fill in the blanks when you move the guy that other teams covet. For instance, if Duffey and Milone look sharp the rest of the season, that makes it a lot easier to include Gibson or May in a trade if someone is sniffing around. You might not be moving the worst player, but you're likely to get a lot better player back that way. 

 

The problem is redundancy.  I don't have an issue letting Duffy have some time in the pen as you suggest, but I don't see the Twins dumping those contracts to get guys like May and possibly Duffey in the rotation.  The Twins have some nice depth at SP.  Trading off Milone for some help somewhere else, say a decent prospect, catcher (though I think he would need to be packaged with someone here) or a good relief pitcher, fills a need without sacrificing too much that depth.  Gibson and May aren't the guys I'd trade.  They have far more upside, have had success in the majors, and are controllable for a long time.  That makes them cornerstone pieces. 

[Jham]

 

Gibson and May aren't the guys I'd trade.  They have far more upside, have had success in the majors, and are controllable for a long time.  That makes them cornerstone pieces. 

 

That also makes them valuable to other organizations.

 

It always amazes me when folks want a young player, and player you cultured in the system, to do good just so you can trade him for a different prospect to basically start over and hope that prospect can become what your new MLB player finally has. I am no fan of Terry Ryan making the trades, but I am sure glad that someone with the former philosophy is making the trades.

 

The A's and to some extent the Yankees and Rays have done well doing that.  It's a lot easier to do when you're already good.  Myself, I'm worried about the depth of farm system.  Assuming Kepler, Buxton, Sano, and Berrios are up next year, how many top prospects remain in our farm system?  Why not make the effort to make the team better in the future if you have guys who can be replaced without too much pain?    

 

[h2oface]

As long as it is Terry Ryan making the trades, nothing is going to change about the quality he settles for.  Maybe next year we finally get a new GM to do the trading.

[USAFChief]

So, to review Twins decision making: in the midst of a desperate effort to remain in the WC conversation, instead of calling up their best pitching prospect to start last Friday's game on regular rest, they opt for Trevor May.

 

He has now not pitched, outside of the 3 innings in that game, since August 9th. The bullpen is asked to pitch 17 innings since that "start," down a member. The day before that game, they lose late with a lesser bullpen member on the mound.

 

I don't think any other team in baseball makes that decision. It was a recipe for trouble.

[tobi0040]

 

Hughes, Nolasco & Milone shouldn't block anyone. Especially not just because we owe them money. TC has committed us to many puzzling longer term contracts. While we may have to pay them we don't have to, for instance, start Nolasco ahead of Berrios

 

For the record, the Hughes extension was met with almost universal praise on this forum.  I was one of them.

[tobi0040]

 

So, to review Twins decision making: in the midst of a desperate effort to remain in the WC conversation, instead of calling up their best pitching prospect to start last Friday's game on regular rest, they opt for Trevor May.

He has now not pitched, outside of the 3 innings in that game, since August 9th. The bullpen is asked to pitch 17 innings since that "start," down a member. The day before that game, they lose late with a lesser bullpen member on the mound.

I don't think any other team in baseball makes that decision. It was a recipe for trouble.

 

To expand....May is probably the most electric arm on the roster. In a wild card race, since 7/1, he has pitched 23.2 innings.  

 

He has pitched 23.2 innings in 49 days.  His ERA is 2.66 and his K per 9 is 8.37.

 

Milone   32.2 IP, 4.41 ERA, 6.89 K per 9

 

Pelfrey    41.2 IP, 3.46 ERA, 4.32 K per 9

 

Graham   20.1 IP.  7.08 ERA.  7.97 K per 9.

 

Very few teams would have made that decision as well

 

 

 

[drjim]

So, to review Twins decision making: in the midst of a desperate effort to remain in the WC conversation, instead of calling up their best pitching prospect to start last Friday's game on regular rest, they opt for Trevor May.

 

He has now not pitched, outside of the 3 innings in that game, since August 9th. The bullpen is asked to pitch 17 innings since that "start," down a member. The day before that game, they lose late with a lesser bullpen member on the mound.

 

I don't think any other team in baseball makes that decision. It was a recipe for trouble.

Kind of amazing they would not use their best reliever for 10 days for no reason other than to prevent their most electric arm in the minors from making a start (on regular rest).

 

I was accepting if the move if it meant May would be back in the rotation full time, but this is a fiasco at a critical time.

 

I'm ok with the Twins playing the trade deadline conservatively and emphasizing development of prospects over rushing them to the bigs this year (I'm aware others disagree), but basic roster management blunders are inexcusable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I was accepting if the move if it meant May would be back in the rotation full time, but this is a fiasco at a critical time.

This is my 30th year of being a Twins fan and I've never seen a roster this badly managed.

 

Everyone involved with this team (excluding the players) should be so ****ing embarrassed right now. They sit on their hands at the wrong time, which is frustrating enough... But then they double-down on that by making inexplicable moves at the wrong time as well.

 

And then they go back to sitting on their hands when a third option - one that might clean up their prior two messes - presents itself.

 

Absolutely ****ing maddening.

 

I usually try to catch a few games in August/September as summer winds down. Say goodbye to the baseball season and all that. Not this year. They're not getting a dime from me other than the TD pub crawl.

[Thrylos]

The irritating thing about this, is that Ryan as a GM does not have the best 5 starters starting.   I would care less if the Twins were not competing, but since they are competing, there is no excuse not to have the best 25, 5, 9 in the game.  Period.

 

That, and the fact that he did nothing and has been doing nothing to improve this team should cost him his job, if the Twins do not make it far into the post season.

[laloesch]

 

The problem is redundancy.  I don't have an issue letting Duffy have some time in the pen as you suggest, but I don't see the Twins dumping those contracts to get guys like May and possibly Duffey in the rotation.  The Twins have some nice depth at SP.  Trading off Milone for some help somewhere else, say a decent prospect, catcher (though I think he would need to be packaged with someone here) or a good relief pitcher, fills a need without sacrificing too much that depth.  Gibson and May aren't the guys I'd trade.  They have far more upside, have had success in the majors, and are controllable for a long time.  That makes them cornerstone pieces. 

 

I agree but the guys they need to move are big contracts and that make them difficult if not impossible to trade.  Unfortunately in their haste to get a winning product back on the field the Twins grew impatient with the farm system and got suckered into signing Nolasco (I never liked him), Ervin Santana (they tried to sign him before) and Hughes.  

 

While I more or less agreed with the Santana signing and Hughes extension it ties the hands of the team with long term expensive contracts through 2017 and is an immediate road block to Berrios and May. 

 

I would be totally shocked if Pelfrey is retained given the depth of starting pitching and not shocked at all if Nolasco is dumped this offseason.  Milone will probably stick around as that lefty fifth starter.

[stringer bell]

With Duffey's success in his last two starts, does this change anyone's opinions about going with him (and May) over Berrios? Bringing up Berrios for a single start still doesn't make sense to me.  However, what happened with May has undoubtedly cost the team.

[drjim]

With Duffy's success in his last two starts, does this change anyone's opinions about going with him (and May) over Berrios? Bringing up Berrios for a single start still doesn't make sense to me. However, what happened with May has undoubtedly cost the team.

I personally thought it should have been Duffey and Berrios with May in pen - but accepted the decision if it meant May was going back to the rotation full time. Alas.

[Brock Beauchamp]

With Duffey's success in his last two starts, does this change anyone's opinions about going with him (and May) over Berrios? Bringing up Berrios for a single start still doesn't make sense to me. However, what happened with May has undoubtedly cost the team.

If May wasn't making a move back to the rotation permanently, he never should have received that spot start.

 

The problem wasn't with Duffey so much as it made the Twins' best reliever unavailable for 5-6 days when most of the pen was in full implosion.

 

I still can't believe the Twins thought that was a good idea. I don't call many of their moves stupid but... That was *really stupid*.

[kab21]

I think people are prematurely casting off Hughes and Santana and grouping them with Nolasco and Pelfrey.  There is a very good chance that these two are the best starters that the Twins have next season. 

 

Nolasco should be given a 1% chance of making the rotation and a 10% chance of making the team next spring training.  He has run out of chances (with me).

 

Milone is a tough choice.  He has Sam Fuld trade value.  He is solid but he is going to get 4-5M next year.  It really doesn't make sense to pay him to be a 5th starter or long man ready to be bumped to the rotation.

 

May is going to be a divisive topic all winter.  He has looked like an okay starter with potential for more.  His stuff is also playing up in the bullpen and he could potentially be a dominant setup guy and future closer.  I know that the argument is that a starter has more value than a RP'er but there is a huge advantage when a contender has 2-3 lockdown RP'ers and the game is shortened.  I might take a potential lock down setup guy over a 3.75 starter especially when the whole bullpen sucks.  Yet I am putting him in the rotation next spring.

 

My rotation

Hughes

Santana

Gibson

May

Berrios - needs to win the spot in spring training - yes, spring training position battles are silly but Berrios has to look good next spring to retain an inside track

Milone - long man pitching 2-3 innings in the bullpen

Duffey - AAA

 

That gives the Twins 2 starters for depth and a potentially really good 1-5 although it still lacks a #1 (and possibly a #2).

 

[South Dakota Tom]

They are at least 9 deep this year - with Hughes, Nolasco, Meyer, and May not starting.  No one would have predicted Gibson, Santana, Pelfrey, Duffy, and Milone as of mid-August.  They will want 9 next year as well. So if you are casting off Pelfrey and finding someone to take Nolasco's contract (good luck with that) and keeping May in the bullpen and Meyer not dependable or ready, we have 5 starters (Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Milone and Duffy) plus Berrios.  Who are #7, #8 and #9? (well, technically, since Meyer didn't really pitch, we're 8 deep, but the point remains the same)....

[Highabove]

We have seen the last two nights in Baltimore what a lockdown Bullpen can do for a team like the Twins.

May has been devastating coming out of the Pen. I believe May will be more valuable in the Pen next year. He could become one of the top setup arms in Baseball. The Bullpen badly needs strikeouts. May should return to the rotation if Ryan can go out and replace him with another dominating setup man. That will cost a few dollars. I won't hold my breath.

The importance of the Bullpen has increased in today's brand of Baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

RP that pitch 60 innings are not more valuable than starters......

[kab21]

 

RP that pitch 60 innings are not more valuable than starters......

This is a standard answer but it isn't always true.

 

A) it depends on how much better his stuff is out of the pen

 

it depends on how much better the rotation replacements (let's say Duffey) is than the bullpen replacements (let's say Pressly or Graham)

 

In playoff baseball you need 4 starters and 3 RP'ers.  Right now there are starters that should be able to reasonably do as well as May in the rotation (Hughes, Santana, Gibson and Berrios) but there isn't anybody other than Perkins that is one of those 3 RP'ers in bullpen.  If people don't want to trade prospects for RP'ers then they have to find one somewhere.

 

Like I said this is going to be a divisive topic this offseason.  I put May in my rotation but I think many undervalue the importance of having a good to great 7th, 8th and 9th inning bullpen.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I have been pleased with Duffey's last two starts, but realize he could a Gibson-like pitcher, of great game and then gets shelled. Liking the results right now though. One thing I am concerned about though, is his velocity in his three starts. I don't even mean I am concerned in his below aver velocity, as a Twins fan I'd expect nothing less.

 

What I am concearned about is that his velocity has declined significantly in all 3 of his starts. He want from sitting roughly 92, 91, to under 90mph. Yes, the results have been there with the declining velocity, but the worry comes in the form of fatigue and or hidden injury. Velocity is a proven indicator of future DL stints, so I am interested to see where he sits in his next outing, and whether has an underlying issue that is about to explode in the form of TJ surgery. 

 

Oh, and his curveball might look good, but overall it has gotten him a negative value so far. The only pitch he's had a positive value with overall so far is his fastball. Now, in his second start both the curve and the change he had incredibly high value outcomes with, but he had negative values with the curve in the first and last starts. I do like the "looks" of his curveball though, and think it could be good if Suzuki calls for at the right time and in the right spots. 

[twinssouth]

Sounds like Hughes back isn't responding well to treatment per this AMs Trib, meaning Duffey will be in the rotation little longer, giving us a better handle on future success or lack there of Looking forward to Rays series as I'll be at Tuesdays Thursday games. Hope I see him.

[scottz]

I don't think May has a shot at the rotation next year. He "good-soldier'ed" his way into a spot in the bullpen for a long time, regardless of how well he was doing and learning in the rotation.

[Mike Sixel]

Too bad for Trevor. Millions of dollars are gone as a set up guy.

[USAFChief]

Too bad for Trevor. Millions of dollars are gone as a set up guy.

Or, he gains money by having a long career as a dominant reliever instead of as a "meh" starter.

 

In any case, how rich he is doesn't cause me to lose sleep.

[jorgenswest]

If the only two choices are meh starter and dominant reliever then the choice is obvious.

 

The Twins will be desperate for league average starting. They are not very likely to get that level from the 100 million they spent on pitching the last two off seasons. Those guys projected to be 4 and then number 5 starters as they decline. May's early career as a starter suggests that he can be that league average starting pitcher in his prime. The Twins can't pass on that opportunity.

[jorgenswest]

Too bad for Trevor. Millions of dollars are gone as a set up guy.

May isn't the only one who loses. Twins lose also. The cost of a league average starter in free agency is more than they paid for Santana. The cost of a set up man is in the Gregorson range. The difference is near 10 million. If May can be that league average starter, it will much less expensive to find a set up man.

[stringer bell]

OK, the Twins have three veterans locked up for at least two more years, plus Milone (under 30, so not a veteran?) and Gibson under team control for those same two years.  Then there is Duffey and May, plus Berrios in waiting. Pat Dean has put up really good AAA numbers this year and Rogers was an IL All-Star (perhaps a 'pen piece?). Add Meyer as something and that is plenty of arms. What is missing is top of the rotation talent. Hughes was solid (low #1 or high #2) last year and Gibson's first half was very good. If May could be as good or better than '14 Hughes or '15 pre-All Star Gibson, yeah, put him in the rotation. If not, maybe he transitions into a shutdown late-inning guy.

 

Obviously, more than five starters are necessary. It would be great to have the replacements all working in Rochester with the flexibility to option people back and forth depending on injuries and effectiveness. There aren't many bullpen sure things. If May is that, it might be in the team's interest to keep him in the bullpen. I can't get too excited about FIP and xFIP if May rated second on the staff to Nolasco.

[USAFChief]

I certainly don't know the right answer.

 

What I'm reasonably sure of is this: dismissing the idea of May as a bullpen piece out of hand because "starters are always more valuable" is a mistake.

 

As Kab stated above, context is important.

 

I also believe some pitchers perform at a much higher level in short appearances where their strengths can be maximized and the weaknesses minimized. So much of a higher level, that forcing them into starting lowers their value rather than increasing it. I don't know if May is such a pitcher, but I lean in that direction.

[Twins7]

Using May in the pen this year doesn't prevent us from starting him next year... Teams (including the cardinals) will do this with young guys to get their best arms in the game during a playoff race. May isn't necessarily banished to the pen for life.

 

And, agreed with kab. We have five starters who can give us similar quality starts as may. We don't have a 7th-8th guy with an arm like mays. Plus, the dude is a strikeout guy, and iirc, wasn't especially efficient starting (hopefully it's something he can improve in the future).