Aaron Hicks 1.0 WAR (and ABW)

[Shane Wahl]

Celebrate good times, come on!

 

That 1.0 is at BR, haven't checked FG.

 

It is a remarkable achievement for the young man after all of what he went through.

 

It isn't remarkable in any way, shape, or form, however, if one notes his natural progression as a prospect. 2013, his first season as a major leaguer, should have been split between AA and AAA. 2014 should have been a split between AAA and MLB. 2015 was his rightful time to flourish, and it has come both offensively and defensively.

 

I often am critical of the Twins in promoting too slow (though this is qualified . . . I think, in particular, that prospects should be moved quickly to full-season A ball, and then to AA if they are legitimate players--AA should have the most stable roster--and then AAA is almost always a necessary spot where players should get at least 200 PA, and pitchers 50 innings), but Hicks was a totally bizarre case after the CF vacuum was created (and I would still work those trades for Meyer, May, and Worley).

 

A side note: Hicks is almost exactly two years older than Adam Walker. Two years ago, Hicks had two "MLB-ready" skills (discipline and defense). Walker has one, though it is a plus-skill (power). Hicks' skill at plate discipline might have actually worked against him as a damn leadoff hitter (woefully stupid move), and his defense was shaky for whatever reason. Walker's power might not immediately translate, so it is best to really just relax. He is pounding AA in an all-around similar way as Hicks did in 2012. With that in mind, 2017 is Walker's true time to succeed in MLB (he should be there some in 2016) if it is going to happen. Walker must go to the AFL for more work too.

 

 

[DaveW]

Hicks is playing awesome. But I don't get the comparison to Walker at all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Aaron has a 1.5 fWAR.

 

He has turned into a really nice player and I think it's somewhat sustainable.

 

The defense isn't going to go away and it has been pretty good. I'd say a tick above average in center. That's really valuable.

 

He's probably not a .900 OPS player but he has a shot at .800 in the long run if he maintains this approach. I think somewhere in the .750-.775 range is more likely. That's a pretty good number for a centerfielder in today's game, particularly one who gets a lot of production from OBP.

[USAFChief]

One thing noticeable when you see him in person is how much BIGGER he is than even a year ago, and especially two years ago.

 

He is a big strong man now. I think that has really helped with his hitting.

 

Something that I think will help Buxton in the future, too, hopefully.

[Shane Wahl]

 

Hicks is playing awesome. But I don't get the comparison to Walker at all.

 

There is no direct comparison. The comparison was between MLB-ready skills that 2013 Hicks had and 2015 Walker has.

[jorgenswest]

Major league center fielders have an OPS of 727 this year. If you have a good glove and can approach that level you are a starting CF. That is certainly within Hicks' capability.

[Shane Wahl]

 

 

One thing noticeable when you see him in person is how much BIGGER he is than even a year ago, and especially two years ago.

He is a big strong man now. I think that has really helped with his hitting.

Something that I think will help Buxton in the future, too, hopefully.

 

Absolutely. Buxton looks pretty little out there. I was a scrawny dude until about 23 when both the beer drinking and the actual shoulder development kicked in . . .

 

Of course one doesn't want speed to be too compromised in the process, but I don't imagine Buxton to ever get past where Hicks is now in terms of bulk.

[Shane Wahl]

 

 

Aaron has a 1.5 fWAR.

 

He has turned into a really nice player and I think it's somewhat sustainable.

 

The defense isn't going to go away and it has been pretty good. I'd say a tick above average in center. That's really valuable.

 

He's probably not a .900 OPS player but he has a shot at .800 in the long run if he maintains this approach. I think somewhere in the .750-.775 range is more likely. That's a pretty good number for a centerfielder in today's game, particularly one who gets a lot of production from OBP.

 

Thanks. I was just updating a bunch of prospects here and wasn't going to check it.

 

He was never anything but a .850 OPS ceiling player. The thing this year is that the slugging is back and the discipline has still remained. He was naturally going to make more contact eventually.

 

I love the idea of the Twins having four damn outfielders who are GOOD PLAYERS in 2016. That is the kind of TEAM (if other roster spots are maximized) that can win a division and win a WS.

[DaveW]

There aren't a whole lot of .900 OPS players (much less CF's) anyways, so I wouldn't get too hung up on that. Mid to high .800's makes him an all star.

[Mike Sixel]

I admit I didn't think this would happen this year.....

[USAFChief]

I admit I didn't think this would happen this year.....

And I'll brag I was asking for Hicks on opening day, and when he was sent down.

 

But I'll also admit that's at least partially because there is no point in playing Robinson/Shaffer.

[drjim]

I also think there was something to his new approach when he came back up that many people picked up on. Numbers didn't reflect it at first - but here we are.

[ttreadway]

I have loved watching Hicks develop this year, and am crossing my fingers that what we are seeing now continues, and even continues to develop more. He is bigger, having way more fun, and is confident. When Hicks steps to the plate, I don't walk to the kitchen to get a bowl of ice cream anymore...I stick around to see what will happen! Didn't think I'd ever say that three months ago.

[BeenHazy]

One thing noticeable when you see him in person is how much BIGGER he is than even a year ago, and especially two years ago.

 

He is a big strong man now. I think that has really helped with his hitting.

 

Something that I think will help Buxton in the future, too, hopefully.

The change between that young man's ears dwarfs any change that we can see on the outside.

[TheLeviathan]

The best part of him eventually move to a corner is that it will eliminate the angles that he bungles most often. But his bat has looked like it belongs to a new man.

[jorgenswest]

The change between that young man's ears dwarfs any change that we can see on the outside.

I strongly disagree.

[halfchest]

Over past 30 days, Hicks trails only Mike Trout and Lorenzo Cain in CF OPS.  He's at .964 over the last 30 days.

 

I agree with those who saw something different in him this year as soon as he came up.  He didn't look afraid or aloof at the plate.  He was hitting the ball hard when he did but was still showing some patience.  There was more than once where I thought he wasn't getting the calls on some very close pitches that could have lead to walks. 

 

Now, it's just a month but when you combine his age, recent performance, and minor league numbers he seems like a decent shot at being productive enough to be in a corner. 

 

What I love about this is when you have your backup CF playing in a corner it allows you to have a big bat as your 4th outfielder (ARCIA?) rather than a shane robinson type.  A Rosario/Buxton/Hicks outfield would be insane defensively. 

[BeenHazy]

I strongly disagree.

why? Do you know that his mental approach to the game ( and possibly to life in general) hasn't changed? Do you believe that there isn't enough evidence to make that assessment? Or do you think it just doesn't make any difference?

[Loosey]

 

The change between that young man's ears dwarfs any change that we can see on the outside.

Related to between the ears, his confidence level seems to have grown leaps and bounds.  Prior to this year he looked like every time he was at bat he assumed he was going to get out.  Now when I see him at bat he looks locked in, like he knows he is going to hit the ball hard.  And he does now.  That double last night was fantastic.  A really good pitch, but in a clutch situation he drove it in the corner for an RBI double.

[spinowner]

It's been said before and it bears repeating: the difference we are seeing in Hicks reminds me strongly of the difference we saw in Torii Hunter when he returned to the Twins after his last minor league stint in 2000. I think he's our primary right fielder beginning next year and for the foreseeable future.

[DaveW]

 

Over past 30 days, Hicks trails only Mike Trout and Lorenzo Cain in CF OPS.  He's at .964 over the last 30 days.

 

I agree with those who saw something different in him this year as soon as he came up.  He didn't look afraid or aloof at the plate.  He was hitting the ball hard when he did but was still showing some patience.  There was more than once where I thought he wasn't getting the calls on some very close pitches that could have lead to walks. 

 

Now, it's just a month but when you combine his age, recent performance, and minor league numbers he seems like a decent shot at being productive enough to be in a corner. 

 

What I love about this is when you have your backup CF playing in a corner it allows you to have a big bat as your 4th outfielder (ARCIA?) rather than a shane robinson type.  A Rosario/Buxton/Hicks outfield would be insane defensively. 

Rosario also is a pretty damn good CF.

 

[halfchest]

 

Rosario also is a pretty damn good CF.

That's the rumor, we haven't seen him put there much since being up but likely due to better options in Hicks and Buxton.  Agree overall though, that just gives us one more option to give Buxton the day off without needing an all glove no bat 4th outfielder. 

[dxpavelka]

I've been telling everybody who has wanted to write him off at various times over the last two years that we were still talking about a guy with barely over 500 big league plate appearances (and no AAA time before hitting the bigs) and that you shouldn't even think about moving on from a guy with his pedigree before he gets to a thousand PA's.

[Seth Stohs]

I love this site and the forums and social media such as twitter... but the one negative about them is that they create this crazy, unfair immediacy. 

 

There are a lot of guys who struggle through a couple of season in the big leagues and then at some point things just click. Maybe that time is now for Hicks. But he's been unnecessarily beaten up here and on twitter and other places for 2+ years because he didn't come up and immediately star.

 

Imagine if Twitter would have been around when Torii Hunter was in his early years. There are many examples.

[jimmer]

So happy for Hicks and the team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I love this site and the forums and social media such as twitter... but the one negative about them is that they create this crazy, unfair immediacy.

 

There are a lot of guys who struggle through a couple of season in the big leagues and then at some point things just click. Maybe that time is now for Hicks. But he's been unnecessarily beaten up here and on twitter and other places for 2+ years because he didn't come up and immediately star.

 

Imagine if Twitter would have been around when Torii Hunter was in his early years. There are many examples.

I agree too many people expect immediate results but to be fair to many of the posters here, they were more upset how the Twins were pushing Hicks than the failure from Aaron himself.

 

That treatment resulted in the kid looking lost for so long - he gave up switch hitting without telling his coach - that it was hard to feel anything but sympathy for him. I know I did.

[drjim]

 

I love this site and the forums and social media such as twitter... but the one negative about them is that they create this crazy, unfair immediacy. 

 

There are a lot of guys who struggle through a couple of season in the big leagues and then at some point things just click. Maybe that time is now for Hicks. But he's been unnecessarily beaten up here and on twitter and other places for 2+ years because he didn't come up and immediately star.

 

Imagine if Twitter would have been around when Torii Hunter was in his early years. There are many examples.

 

I think crazy, unfair, unrealistic expectations are a part of baseball prospects now.

 

It's a dangerous combination of pushing for prospects to get promoted and not having the patience to see them through.

[Mike Sixel]

Some people just wanted Hicks in AAA until something showed it was clicking, as Brock said. I was never sure he'd be good, like we are with some, but I just wanted him in AAA learning, not up here with no alternative behind him.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I agree too many people expect immediate results but to be fair to many of the posters here, they were more upset how the Twins were pushing Hicks than the failure from Aaron himself.

That treatment resulted in the kid looking lost for so long - he gave up switch hitting without telling his coach - that it was hard to feel anything but sympathy for him. I know I did.

 

Completely agree. I would be in that category as well. Over time, that kind of all blurred.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think crazy, unfair, unrealistic expectations are a part of baseball prospects now.

 

It's a dangerous combination of pushing for prospects to get promoted and not having the patience to see them through.

 

I will also completely agree with this. More and more sites are now out there. It used to be just Baseball America and occasional notes in the papers. 

 

I know when I started writing a ton about minor leaguers back in 2004-05, people would write me often and say stuff like "Who Cares?" 

 

That has completely changed in the last 3-4 years. Now everyone talks prospects, and since my mission since I started was about recognizing minor league success, that might also work against them. 

 

For instance (And we all have our own examples), a lot of people here were willing to write off Kepler, wondering why he was put on the 40-man roster or kept on the 40-man roster this year. Lots of people used the word bust. In last part, that is because we have heard about, read about and written about him since 2009. That's 6 years. We forget he's just 22-23 years old now and playing very well in AA. 

 

Again, I think that recognizing them and writing about them is great and I will continue to do that, but it can create unfair timelines and/or expectations.