Article: Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

[ashbury]

I think basically any multiyear FA contract is untradeable in its first season.

1. You outbid all 29 other GMs for the guy's services. No one else wanted him at that particular price. Now you want one of them to take him off your hands, without any additional concessions from you?
2. You paid market rate for a player, for which you sacrificed no players in return. Now you want a fellow GM to give you players, for that same contract?
3. You trade a player in his first year. Then you ask future free agents to commit to you without a no-trade clause, and expect them to listen?

For all these reasons, I agree, trades of this sort can be expected to be rare.

[tobi0040]

 

 

1. You outbid all 29 other GMs for the guy's services. No one else wanted him at that particular price. Now you want one of them to take him off your hands, without any additional concessions from you?
2. You paid market rate for a player, for which you sacrificed no players in return. Now you want a fellow GM to give you players, for that same contract?
3. You trade a player in his first year. Then you ask future free agents to commit to you without a no-trade clause, and expect them to listen?

For all these reasons, I agree, trades of this sort can be expected to be rare.

 

Regarding #3, I would like to introduce a new term.  That should be called being “Marlin-ed”.

 

A friend of a friend works for the Twins and this was a huge concern when we received calls about Willingham 3 months after he signed his deal and why we didn’t seriously consider moving him.

 

 

[DaveW]

Why are people so quick to want to get rid of Santana? He is our best pitcher currently and has looked great on the mound. For a team with a shaky bullpen it's nice to have a guy who can go 8 innings for you each time out,

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A friend of a friend works for the Twins and this was a huge concern when we received calls about Willingham 3 months after he signed his deal and why we didn’t seriously consider moving him.

Were teams looking to trade value for him, though, or just trying to "help" the cheap last place Twins save a few bucks?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Were teams looking to trade value for him, though, or just trying to "help" the cheap last place Twins save a few bucks?

Excellent point. That's why I don't get too upset if a specific player is not traded away or acquired. We have no idea if either side has a reasonable valuation of the player(s) in question, good or bad.

 

I tend to work in the aggregate because of that lack of information. The Twins need a shortstop. Maybe they get Tulo, great... but if they don't, I will not consider it a failure because we have no idea if the other side is reasonably valuing Tulowitzki (let's say they set the price at Buxton + Berrios and refuse to move from it).

 

But not getting a shortstop at all is a failure. I like certain players and I'd love for the Twins to get them but without concrete information telling us the details of negotiations, it's intellectually dishonest to get mad at Ryan for refusing to sign off on a bad deal.

 

Shortstop is just an example here. The same argument applies to the bullpen and catcher. It's fine to lose out on signing/acquiring a specific player. It's not okay to ignore the problem entirely.

[Mike Sixel]

You just can't trade a guy you just signed.......unless he somehow comes out and asks for a trade publicly. It will just discourage other FAs from signing. I was wrong to rip the Twins for not trading Willingham right away. 100% wrong.

Edited July 27, 2015 by mike wants wins

[tobi0040]

 

Were teams looking to trade value for him, though, or just trying to "help" the cheap last place Twins save a few bucks?

 

I think he had a ton of value.  At the deadline he had .271 avg, .951 OPS and 27 HR.  2 years @ $7M a year left.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think he had a ton of value.  At the deadline he had .271 avg, .951 OPS and 27 HR.  2 years @ $7M a year left.

No doubt he was having a good year, and was a fair value for us going forward on that contract -- but were other teams offering much of anything to take on that contract at that time?  Better players were moved for not much in return in July 2012 (Hunter Pence and Hanley Ramirez), plus some lesser options moved for basically nothing at all.

 

Teams generally don't pay extra for extra years of control at the deadline -- they can deal with those extra years better in the offseason.  It's what makes the Hamels situation unique, because he is signed long term but also viewed as an elite player for the rest of 2015 too.  Even in his career year, Willingham wasn't seen as an elite pick-up -- the extra years on his deal were neutral value at best in a trade deadline scenario.

 

Also, Willingham was probably seen as a DH only option, which eliminated one league and any AL contenders already set at that position.  And the AL wasn't particularly competitive that year.  Eyeballing standings and rosters, only Detroit might have been a good fit (Delmon Young).  Who would they have been bidding against?  Not surprising if the Twins reasoned that Willingham at 2/14 going forward offered more value than anything offered in trade.

Edited July 27, 2015 by spycake

[tobi0040]

 

No doubt he was having a good year, and was a fair value for us going forward on that contract -- but were other teams offering much of anything to take on that contract at that time?  Better players were moved for not much in return in July 2012 (Hunter Pence and Hanley Ramirez), plus some lesser options moved for basically nothing at all.

 

Teams generally don't pay extra for extra years of control at the deadline -- they can deal with those extra years better in the offseason.  It's what makes the Hamels situation unique, because he is signed long term but also viewed as an elite player for the rest of 2015 too.  Even in his career year, Willingham wasn't seen as an elite pick-up -- the extra years on his deal were neutral value at best in a trade deadline scenario.

 

I think it is tough to impossible to know what teams were able to part with.  In the rental phase I think teams don't really care at all about the salary in most instances.  The pro-rated amount is usually not too bad.

 

In the case of Willingham I think his contract probably had some value.   Prior to hitting FA he had 29 HR but that was quite a bit higher than the previous years.  Then he had 27 on 7/31.  So that type of pop, 125-140 OPS+ could slide into the DH spot if teams had doubts about him in LF.  Generally I agree with you but this situation was a little unique. It seems like if he had hit FA after that year he would have received more than 2/14 

 

Edited July 27, 2015 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

Willingham was 33 years old, well established, and pretty consistent in his career.  If no one was prepared to offer substantially better than 3/21 the previous offseason, I doubt they'd be willing to surrender something worthwhile to take on that contract 4 months later just because he almost doubled his HR/FB rate for a half season.  (And sure enough that rate returned to slightly below his career rate for the last 2 months of 2012, and the full 2013-2014 seasons.)

 

Should we have just shipped him off to Miami for the Carlos Lee trade return?  Or to Detroit for Lester Oliveros 2.0?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Willingham was 33 years old, well established, and pretty consistent in his career.  If no one was prepared to offer substantially better than 3/21 the previous offseason, I doubt they'd be willing to surrender something worthwhile to take on that contract 4 months later just because he almost doubled his HR/FB rate for a half season.  (And sure enough that rate returned to slightly below his career rate for the last 2 months of 2012, and the full 2013-2014 seasons.)

 

Should we have just shipped him off to Miami for the Carlos Lee trade return?  Or to Detroit for Lester Oliveros 2.0?

 

By that logic, no guy that signed as a FA would ever change hands. Or, some guy drafted in round 41 would never be traded for. Maybe he looked healthy and good, and teams had more information and less doubt about that part.

[tobi0040]

 

Willingham was 33 years old, well established, and pretty consistent in his career.  If no one was prepared to offer substantially better than 3/21 the previous offseason, I doubt they'd be willing to surrender something worthwhile to take on that contract 4 months later just because he almost doubled his HR/FB rate for a half season.  (And sure enough that rate returned to slightly below his career rate for the last 2 months of 2012, and the full 2013-2014 seasons.)

 

Should we have just shipped him off to Miami for the Carlos Lee trade return?  Or to Detroit for Lester Oliveros 2.0?

 

I think you maybe short changing his 2012 a bit.  His BABIP was actually below his career clip.  His oWAR ended the year at 4.7.  That is a decent guy to slide in as your DH.  He won a silver slugger and at the deadline he was on a pace of 43 HR.    He ended 8th in OPS and WAR in the AL.  3rd in RBI.  6th in adjusted OPS+.  7th in HR. He won a silver slugger.

 

In 2014 after a steep decline he was moved for a prospect that was 9th in the Royals system pre-season and 16th at the time of the deal.  That is a system that minorleagueball had 6th best at the time.  I am guessing Josh would have fetched a top 10 prospect in a good system. Teams knew he was going to come off the peak, but I don’t know how his stock would not have risen from the prior offseason.

 

 

Edited July 27, 2015 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

By that logic, no guy that signed as a FA would ever change hands.

They generally don't change hands 4 months into a multi-year deal, no.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

at the deadline he was on a pace of 43 HR

Yeah, his 2012 pace was great.  But everyone knew it wasn't really sustainable, probably not for the rest of 2012 and certainly not for 2013-2014.  He was basically the same guy he was 4 months earlier.

 

 

In 2014 after a steep decline he was moved for a prospect that was 9th in the Royals system pre-season and 16th at the time of the deal.  That is a system that minorleagueball had 6th best at the time.  I am guessing Josh would have fetched a top 10 prospect in a good system. Teams knew he was going to come off the peak, but I don’t know how his stock would not have risen from the prior offseason.

I am sure his stock had risen, to the point that if were declared a FA he would have received better than a 2/14 offer, but I doubt it had risen to the point where a team would surrender a worthwhile asset to get him at that price.  Years of control generally aren't that valuable at the deadline, particularly for a $7 mil AAV mid-30's DH.  Heck, a lot of teams might prefer the flexibility of going year-to-year with such a player.

 

Jason Adam was a C prospect when we got him.  We probably could have fetched something better in 2012, but it still doesn't mean it was worth making the deal.  Multiple C/C+ prospects aren't that great, especially if they required 40-man roster spots, etc.

[PseudoSABR]

Tulo's going to the Blue Jays

 

Ken RosenthalVerified account
‏@Ken_Rosenthal
BREAKING: Tulo traded to #BlueJays.

Edited July 28, 2015 by PseudoSABR

[jimmer]

 

Tulo's going to the Blue Jays

 

Ken RosenthalVerified account
‏@Ken_Rosenthal
BREAKING: Tulo traded to #BlueJays.

Figures.  Rockies are finally my home team where I can watch my favorite player play every game and he gets traded.

 

Good for Toronto.

[FattCrapps]

He's gonna love playing on that turf.

[jimmer]

yeah, it'll hurt him for sure.  Like it has Reyes or Donaldson.  Or pretty much anyone I can remember while there. Bautista, Encarnacion...

 

We talking about the Eagles old field, The Vet? I like how people are anticipating Tulo's  expectant injuries with so much joy.

 

.

Edited July 28, 2015 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

Am I the only one underwhelmed by the return the Rockies got?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I too am underwhelmed by the return. The Twins absolutely could have topped it on the prospect side and effectively the money side, but obviously we have nothing like Reyes to offer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Toronto was one of my sleeper picks, as I thought they could move Reyes. I remember when Toronto notably passed on Tulo in the draft, picking Ricky Romero instead...

[goulik]

The article I read said Colorado was likely to try to flip Reyes. With what they took in the Tulo trade, I wonder if Meyer and Escobar/Santana would net Reyes?

[jorgenswest]

Reyes is now what we were concerned Tulowitzki would be in two years. His defense is below average. His bat is weaker and void against lefties this year. He might be a slight upgrade this year but will be a huge deficit going forward.

 

He might be worth a win though and that win could be the difference between being the road team in a wild card play in game and sitting on the outside. The Twins would have to plan to move him to LF for the future though.

 

The only deal I would consider is Mauer for Reyes. The Twins could play Reyes at SS this year and replace Mauer in the lineup with Arcia or Kepler or a rental bat.

[drjim]

 

Am I the only one underwhelmed by the return the Rockies got?

 

The pitchers are good (Hoffman is way up from preseason) but the Reyes part makes me wonder. He seems to have negative value with that contract. Rockies do clear $50 mil overall though.

[drjim]

Got to admit, I didn't think the Rockies were all that serious about trading Tulo unless they were blown away. It is an OK trade for them, but certainly doesn't blow anyone away.

[USAFChief]

Neither of the pitchers Col received is any kind of mega prospect, either.

 

Have to believe the inclusion of Reyes means the Twins could have gotten Tulowitski for a reasonable return by taking on more salary.

 

I expected to be disappointed, and in that regard anyway, I'm not disappointed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wonder if TR's conservatism prevents him from taking much advantage of other team's incompetence? I know we can't insert ourselves into every major deal like this, but I don't think TR has ever scored any. He is nothing if not deliberate, and I think that delay can kill opportunities like this.

 

I wonder how our talks about Tulo went. Did TR even press if Colorado said he was available and they liked Gubson and Sano? Seems we could have scored him for less than that, had we continued negotiating. Or did TR effectively say we're not interested and walk away?

[drjim]

 

Neither of the pitchers Col received is any kind of mega prospect, either.

Have to believe the inclusion of Reyes means the Twins could have gotten Tulowitski for a reasonable return by taking on more salary.

I expected to be disappointed, and in that regard anyway, I'm not disappointed.

 

Sure in that they aren't Buxton or Sano. But would have been equivalent of Berrios and May, perhaps even slightly better. I'm not sure how Reyes is valued but can't be much.

 

Twins surely could have done it but would have clobbered their meager pitching depth.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'll be mighty disappointed if Ryan refused to offer that kind of value for Tulo.

 

But it's also possible the Pohlads had no interest in adding that salary.

[DaveW]

 

 

But it's also possible the Pohlads had no interest in adding that salary.

THAT would be dissapointing, especially after robbing the city of those tax dollars to build target field.