Extend Sano

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

When I say "now" I mean like today 6 games into his Major League career.  Longoria was well into his Rookie Season and was an All-Star selection I believe.

Nope.  Longoria signed his extension 6 days after his MLB debut:

 

 

 

contract purchased by Tampa Bay 4/12/08
signed extension with Tampa Bay 4/18/08

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/tampa-bay-rays/

 

It was for 6 years, plus 3 club options.

[nicksaviking]

 

When I say "now" I mean like today 6 games into his Major League career.  Longoria was well into his Rookie Season and was an All-Star selection I believe.  Now, if Sano keeps this up for month or into September I would offer something like I posted.  I don't know if Sano would be able to say no to $130M. 

 

The Astros extended Jon Singleton before he even saw a MLB pitch.

 

Not that that's a ringing endorsement to do so.

 

Fortunately, Sano has always had a better bat and better power.

[Loosey]

 

Nope.  Longoria signed his extension 6 days after his MLB debut:

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/tampa-bay-rays/

 

It was for 6 years, plus 3 club options.

I stand corrected.  Let's do it! Just add an inflation factor onto Longoria's.

[jimmer]

 

The Astros extended Jon Singleton before he even saw a MLB pitch.

 

Not that that's a ringing endorsement to do so.

 

Fortunately, Sano has always had a better bat and better power.

Sure that wasn't Springer? Nope, you are right.

 

For some reason I thought it was Springer.  Odd Houston did that with Singleton since he had two failed drug tests in the minors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Starling Marte

 

...

 

All of these guys signed contracts with less than a full year of MLB service time

Correcting myself: Marte had slightly over a year's service time when he signed, sorry.  (I was confusing him with fellow Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco, who was widely reported to be in extension talks before his MLB debut, although he ultimately did not sign anything.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sure that wasn't Springer?

I think Springer turned down such an offer.  (The controversy being that the Astros were using a potential call-up as leverage in the contract talks.)

 

The recent Springer and Polanco examples suggest that some prospects are still willing to take the risk of going year-to-year.  But that doesn't mean a Sano contract isn't worth exploring, even if we have to make a more aggressive offer than what Longoria got (which was pretty insanely team-friendly).

[Loosey]

@Spycake, I'm on board with an extension now.  Use a ramp up approach similar to Longoria, so Sano is getting more money now than he would without a new contract and give big bucks toward the end with hopes it's fair to both sides by guaranteeing Sano A LOT of money, but saving the Twins from possibly losing him or having to pay him something absolutely crazy to keep him in the future.

[sorney]

 

15 years, $80m. Who says no?

Everyone.

[jimbo92107]

 

So, this is like the opposite of sticking a fork in him... watch, now he'll go 0 for his next 50.

 

I'm sorry I'm always the pessimist.

I doubt very much that Miguel Sano will have an extended slump, not even in his rookie year. This young man's approach at the plate is as elite as his power. If he maintains the kind of disciplined approach he's shown so far, he will simply continue doing what he's doing now - or better - for many years. His "plan at the plate" tool appears to be a 70. This guy is a smart ballplayer.

[tobi0040]

 

Everyone.

 

It would involve risk.  But I would bet the Twins would sign that right now without hesitation.   Basically buy out 8 FA years for 40-50M.

 

The odds we could not find room for his bat is low. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

i'm going to go out on a limb and say that the main reason Longoria signed that contract is that he wanted to be in Tampa.  Not sure if Sano wants that or if he wants to test FA... who knows.  I do think that for a guy that is looking like a sure thing elite guy, getting that extension done sooner as opposed to later from a team perspective.  Sano may want to bet on himself too.  Who knows.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

i'm going to go out on a limb and say that the main reason Longoria signed that contract is that he wanted to be in Tampa.

Perhaps, although he had barely played there, wasn't from there, and didn't have a wife or children at the time.  They do seem to get buy-in from their players though (Longoria, Archer, and Moore all signed similar deals).

 

I do wonder if the calculation is a little different from international players.  Settling in one part of the USA probably looks much different to Sano and his friends and family.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I am not too worried about position.  His bat will be in the lineup, whether that is 3B, LF, RF, 1B, or DH or some combination through the years.

After seeing how well he handles himself at the plate, I'm sure he could handle himself in the outfield too. I'm converted. Anything to keep his bat in the lineup.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins extremely conservative, I can't see them spending on uncertainty.

[Halsey Hall]

 

The Twins have already made Sano a millionaire (which honestly, doesn't help the prospect of a long term extension at any kind of discount). They could also negotiate incentives, bonuses, etc. into any contract.

The truth is, the kids broke.

[sorney]

 

It would involve risk.  But I would bet the Twins would sign that right now without hesitation.   Basically buy out 8 FA years for 40-50M.

 

The odds we could not find room for his bat is low. 

15 years is CRAZY!!  For both sides. Sano could blow out a knee tomorrow and never hit again. I can't think of a single 15 year contract ever signed in MLB.  That is why everyone would say no.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It has happened a lot more often than that.

 

Starling Marte

Jon Singleton

Chris Archer

Salvador Perez

Matt Moore

Anthony Rizzo

Evan Longoria

 

And that's just off the top of my head.  All of these guys signed contracts with less than a full year of MLB service time (a few of them with practically zero).  Additional players have signed with less than two year's service time too (Span, Tulowitzki, Starlin Castro, Jose Tabata, etc.).

 

It's been a trend in MLB, unfortunately one that the Twins were not ahead of the curve on (could have come in handy with Mauer and Morneau), and unfortunately one that the Twins have been unable to take advantage of recently with their lack of impact prospects reaching MLB.

 

But Sano is an ideal candidate.  15/80 is ridiculous, obviously, but some kind of a 6 year deal with a few club options is both possible and probably beneficial to both sides, very soon if not right now.

Yeah, this. I think the Twins should approach Sano in the offseason and see if he's open to a deal... Which he probably will be. What 22 year old turns down $40m guaranteed? Buy out 7-8 seasons (control years + 1-2 seasons) and give Miguel a fat stack of cash.

 

Plus, that sends a good message to May, Gibson, Buxton, Rosario, etc.

 

"Go big and we'll hand you a check with lots of zeros on it."

[tobi0040]

 

15 years is CRAZY!!  For both sides. Sano could blow out a knee tomorrow and never hit again. I can't think of a single 15 year contract ever signed in MLB.  That is why everyone would say no.

 

The Marlins gave a 24 year old Stanton a 13 year deal that included an option year with a $10M buyout. So pretty close to a 14 year deal.

 

The reason why the Twins would hand Sano that 15/80 deal is

 

1) The Stanton deal is for $325M and

2) We waited too long for Mauer and it ended up costing us a lot of money

3) If he was injured to the point he could never play again the contract would be insured.

 

At 15/80, the AAV would be $5 million dollars a year.   Sano, IMO has to be a pretty big bust to not be able to DH for the next 15 year and live up to that.

 

I looked up Sano's agent to see what his other clients have done.  It looks like he is an agent that focuses on young Dominican players and Sano was really his first big one.  So we don't have much of a track record.  The next two biggest names I found were Carlos Martinez and....Eddie Rosario.  The benefit of this could be a longer term deal for Sano would likely be his agents first deal so he may be faced with the same carrot as Sano...enough money to live on or at least get the money flowing for him.  3% of $100M...that is a good start.

[spinowner]

The first team that I can remember taking the approach of locking players in at a young age was Cleveland in the early '90's. They wound up contending for close to 10 years because they had several good young players emerge at about the same time and they chose the right players to lock in. The Twins could be in a very similar situation in the near future and I'd love it if they'd do the same for prospects who have early success.

[tobi0040]

 

The first team that I can remember taking the approach of locking players in at a young age was Cleveland in the early '90's. They wound up contending for close to 10 years because they had several good young players emerge at about the same time and they chose the right players to lock in. The Twins could be in a very similar situation in the near future and I'd love it if they'd do the same for prospects who have early success.

 

Agreed.  We are in a position to have the following pitchers under control through their prime:

 

May, Gibson, Berrios, Meyer, as well as Hughes at a reasonable rate.  If we don't let Sano or Buxton get out of control we could have a really talented core at reasonable prices.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The first team that I can remember taking the approach of locking players in at a young age was Cleveland in the early '90's. They wound up contending for close to 10 years because they had several good young players emerge at about the same time and they chose the right players to lock in. The Twins could be in a very similar situation in the near future and I'd love it if they'd do the same for prospects who have early success.

 

I remember that well as I lived there at that time.  It worked out very well for them as they kept their core in tact. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they waited a year.  The costs do go up, but so does some of that certainty.  The Twins aren't hurting financially, so there's something to say about letting some of the risk play itself out, as a 7-8 year deal would still be very much of an option next year (it would just cost a bit more).   That being said, if they are comfortable with Sano, his work ethic, and that he is a long term major leaguer, I think it would be wise to extend him sooner than later. 

[tobi0040]

 

  That being said, if they are comfortable with Sano, his work ethic, and that he is a long term major leaguer, I think it would be wise to extend him sooner than later. 

 

Agreed.  I think the Twins needs to think about his floor.  If his floor is .235, 30 HR, 70 BB...than $80M over the next 10 years (3 FA years) is a deal you do.  That is his first three FA years for about $40M, while prepaying him $40M for his controlled years which may be a little more than he makes.

 

Because the Angels waited 3 full years before singing Trout and the Marlins waited four full years before signing Stanton.  Those were AAV deals in the $23-25M range.

[Dman]

 

Agreed.  I think the Twins needs to think about his floor.  If his floor is .235, 30 HR, 70 BB...than $80M over the next 10 years (3 FA years) is a deal you do.  That is his first three FA years for about $40M, while prepaying him $40M for his controlled years which may be a little more than he makes.

 

Because the Angels waited 3 full years before singing Trout and the Marlins waited four full years before signing Stanton.  Those were AAV deals in the $23-25M range.

 

I think for his agent Stanton money would be the bar.  Salaries only go up so if you are going to lock your client up X number of years you go with the contract that you think your player may emulate over time.  I doubt the Twins will lock him up early but it looks like it makes sense to do that before the player has fewer years to free agency and thus more leverage.  I doubt he will come cheep even with an early deal as right now he looks like he could be one of the top players in the league in time.  

[tobi0040]

 

I think for his agent Stanton money would be the bar.  Salaries only go up so if you are going to lock your client up X number of years you go with the contract that you think your player may emulate over time.  I doubt the Twins will lock him up early but it looks like it makes sense to do that before the player has fewer years to free agency and thus more leverage.  I doubt he will come cheep even with an early deal as right now he looks like he could be one of the top players in the league in time.  

 

The difference is a guy only makes $500K his first three years.  If you approach him then the money means more to him.  Both Trout and Stanton were arb eligible (Stanton) or one year away (Trout).  Stanton made $6.5M the year he signed the deal.

 

We also need to note that these are lofty comp's for a guy with 30 AB's. If he had two ridiculous years he may cost 100's of millions.  But he shoud not command $25M in any one year.

 

The upper end of contracts don't escalate as much as people think they do.  A-Rod signed a $25M a year deal in 2000.   That is the same AAV roughly as Trout and Stanton.  The highest is Cabrera at $29M, signed 14 years after A-Rod's.

 

[Dman]

 

The difference is a guy only makes $500K his first three years.  If you approach him then the money means more to him.  Both Trout and Stanton were arb eligible (Stanton) or one year away (Trout).  Stanton made $6.5M the year he signed the deal.

 

We also need to note that these are lofty comp's for a guy with 30 AB's. If he had two ridiculous years he may cost 100's of millions.  But he shoud not command $25M in any one year.

 

The upper end of contracts don't escalate as much as people think they do.  A-Rod signed a $25M a year deal in 2000.   That is the same AAV roughly as Trout and Stanton.  The highest is Cabrera at $29M, signed 14 years after A-Rod's.

 

I should have been more clear as I meant Stanton money after the Arb years but even his Arb years could be high if he is one the best at his position.  

 

The fact he only makes 500k the first three years is also why I don;t think a deal will get done.  There is no reason for either side to do too much too early until you know what talent level has been established.  Maybe I will be wrong but I believe the Twins will wait.

[tobi0040]

 

I should have been more clear as I meant Stanton money after the Arb years but even his Arb years could be high if he is one the best at his position.  

 

The fact he only makes 500k the first three years is also why I don;t think a deal will get done.  There is no reason for either side to do too much too early until you know what talent level has been established.  Maybe I will be wrong but I believe the Twins will wait.

 

I am torn as to what they do.  My hope is that they were burned a bit with Mauer and even Johan.  Dozier and Plouffe to an extent, although those two came on later in their careers.

 

[DaveW]

The Twins are smart, I wish they would sign him today, but that may be to early and maybe you don't want to mess with a good thing/put to much pressure on him ASAP.

 

However I bet they will visit with Sano about locking him in during this off-season. Maybe a compromise of buying out his first 2 free agent years, that allows Sano to get a nice guaranteed check while still keeping him line for a MONSTER pay day down the road.(Where the Twins could always extend him a few years down the road as well)

[HitInAPinch]

Wow, after 7 games?  Negotiate a fat contract after 7 games?  How about wait half a season?

[Dman]

Getting him earlier is better than later because prices only go up.  I just haven't ever seen the Twins do that before.  Sano is a different talent though and the Twins have been surprising with their decisions this year in general the FO is harder to predict so maybe they will do something early.  

 

If the Twins can't get him to sign an extension and 30m per year for ten years is the new normal for star players then he could be gone after 6 years.  That assumes he does reach his potential or something close to it.

[tobi0040]

 

Getting him earlier is better than later because prices only go up.  I just haven't ever seen the Twins do that before.  Sano is a different talent though and the Twins have been surprising with their decisions this year in general the FO is harder to predict so maybe they will do something early.  

 

If the Twins can't get him to sign an extension and 30m per year for ten years is the new normal for star players then he could be gone after 6 years.  That assumes he does reach his potential or something close to it.

 

A few notes of caution.  He is under control for seven years.  And as of right now, $30M is $5M more than an 8+ WAR player (Trout) and a million more than the first guy to hit a triple crown in forever (Cabrera).

 

Again, the highest contract for a position player right now is 16% higher than the highest contract was 14 years ago, about a 1% inflation rate.