Molitor is a mediocre manager

[Willihammer]

I'm all for the move in theory, provided Nunez is actually faster than Sano. Seems like he's constantly making outs on the bases.

I'd be curious to see who wins in a foot race between those two.

[ashbury]

I don’t understand why we need to hide Graham.  He is better than most of the pen.

 

Overall his ERA is 3.09, xFIP is 4.06.

First, as the xFIP points out, the ERA may be somewhat of a mirage. Second, with the manager deciding what batters this or any pitcher faces, it may be that the stats are better precisely because he's been "hidden".

[Linus]

Nunez would be substantially faster than Sano, and just as likely to get a hit (other than a homer) in the subsequent at bats.  No problem with that move.

[tobi0040]

 

First, as the xFIP points out, the ERA may be somewhat of a mirage. Second, with the manager deciding what batters this or any pitcher faces, it may be that the stats are better precisely because he's been "hidden".

 

I think he has been hidden from high leverage situations moreso than favorable matchups. But I could be wrong. If he has just been used in non-high leverage situations his stats should be legit.  Again, a 1.90 ERA in 20 or his 21 appearances.

 

Compare with Duensing, Thompson, even Boyer etc.

[ashbury]

I doubt if the record would show he has been given highly favorable matchups. But he may have been spared a few highly unfavorable matchups here and there, and it takes only a few cherry picked plate appearances to change a pitcher's run-scoring results dramatically. That's all I'm suggesting.

 

In effect, Molitor (aided by Allen) could be doing a very good managerial job with JR, and the stats can be interpreted to mean he's missing an opportunity instead.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Nunez would be substantially faster than Sano, and just as likely to get a hit (other than a homer) in the subsequent at bats.  No problem with that move.

Just as likely to get a hit, perhaps, but not as likely to reach base.  Sano has 3x Nunez's walk rate.  Plus, as you mention, Nunez is much less likely to get an extra base hit (and a double with a man on base, or even a solo homer, could end it).

 

Also, Nunez didn't steal until 9 pitches later, when there was already 2 outs.  If you're not going to steal immediately, and get two chances to drive in the runner from second base, I think I'd leave in Sano.

[SwainZag]

 

Just as likely to get a hit, perhaps, but not as likely to reach base.  Sano has 3x Nunez's walk rate.  Plus, as you mention, Nunez is much less likely to get an extra base hit (and a double with a man on base, or even a solo homer, could end it).

 

Also, Nunez didn't steal until 9 pitches later, when there was already 2 outs.  If you're not going to steal immediately, and get two chances to drive in the runner from second base, I think I'd leave in Sano.

 

In hindsight obviously it didn't matter because they didn't score and Sano's spot wouldn't get up again.  If you play the what if scenario, what if there was a double and Sano was held at 3rd and they didn't score.  Or if after the stolen base there was a single Nunez scores on where Sano would be stuck at 3rd, or even 2nd.  Obviously  I have never seen Sano run much outside of the his limited play in for the Twins this year, but I would have assume Nunez is quicker.  It didn't matter, but I don't mind the decision to pinch-run.

 

This same scenario could be used for the Perkins talk that has been going on.  Do you use him in the 8th and/or 9th to held extend the game, or wait and use him later IF the game gets that far? 

[Mike Sixel]

A sacrifice in the 2nd inning? Terrible decision. Awful strategy.

[TheLeviathan]

 

A sacrifice in the 2nd inning? Terrible decision. Awful strategy.

 

It was Kurt Suzuki.  I'd have done it too - odds were damn good he was going to get out anyway.

[JustinCB]

 

Gardy has big fork in him we don't want him back!

I'm sure Gardy has had a lot of forks in a lot of things lately.  Lotta potato salad I bet.

[Mike Sixel]

Odds are always a hitter will make an out. Always. You don't give away outs in inning 2. Simple math.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Odds are always a hitter will make an out. Always. You don't give away outs in inning 2. Simple math.

 

We give outs away before the first pitch is thrown every time we march Suzuki out there.  

 

It's a reflection of the utter lack of confidence everyone, including apparently Molitor, has in Suzuki right now.

[LaBombo]

Suzuki is another one of the Twins' many buy high/sell low mistakes since they fell out of relevance in 2011.  His extension was based largely on a .310 BABIP that doesn't appear all that high, but is in fact about 40 points over his career average.

 

And with a Suzuki 2015 BABIP 30 points lower than his career average as their chosen instrument, the baseball gods are punishing the Twins for giving Goins wedgies instead of their full attention last year when Suzuki's extension was discussed.

 

It's not like there were a ton of better options lying around, but the signing of Suzuki ensured that there would be no real effort to go find one, either.

[drjim]

 

Suzuki is another one of the Twins' many buy high/sell low mistakes since they fell out of relevance in 2011.  His extension was based largely on a .310 BABIP that doesn't appear all that high, but is in fact about 40 points over his career average.

 

And with a Suzuki 2015 BABIP 30 points lower than his career average as their chosen instrument, the baseball gods are punishing the Twins for giving Goins wedgies instead of their full attention last year when Suzuki's extension was discussed.

 

It's not like there were a ton of better options lying around, but the signing of Suzuki ensured that there would be no real effort to go find one, either.

 

I wonder if any of this has been discussed in approximately 17 other threads? Seems appropriate to bring up in a thread on Molitor's managerial decisions.

[drjim]

 

We give outs away before the first pitch is thrown every time we march Suzuki out there.  

 

It's a reflection of the utter lack of confidence everyone, including apparently Molitor, has in Suzuki right now.

 

I also think it was a reflection of the reality of facing David Price. Trying to steal a run when you can.

[Willihammer]

Is Trevor May not in the pen? I thought I heard he was moved to the pen.

[DaveW]

I don't mind the Suzuki bunt. Literally all Robinson has to do is hit the ball past the pitcher to score a run, but of course his worthless self strikes out on 3 pitches.

[Riverbrian]

I simply don't understand.

 

i'm sure Molitor has made mistakes and I'm also sure that Joe Maddon has made mistakes and I'm also sure that Tona LaRussa made them every year.

 

Bottom line... Nobody expected the Twins to be here and saying its Molitor's fault that we are better than expected makes no sense to me.

[Platoon]

The starting pitching! The starting pitching! The starting pitching! It's why the Twins are relevant right now. The bull pen is kind of mundane, the offense often relies on third baseman who can't catch line drives, and the base running is suspect. And yes, Molitor does do some things differently than his predecessor. That's why his predecessor, is a predecessor! But the starting pitching has been very good, almost to the point of excellent. Is that Neal Allen? Paul Molitor? Or the Twins version of the Vulcan Mind Meld? There is nothing wrong with Molitor as a manager. He has done ok with the players handed him. What would I do given the choice of whether to bunt Suzuki to the nine hole? I would call time out, go up to the big office and ask TR if he could get me two guys who can make decent contact. Any other alternative was never gonna work well!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Is Trevor May not in the pen? I thought I heard he was moved to the pen.

I am wondering the same thing.

[soofootinsfan37]

•  

  I am wondering the same thing,

He should  have pitched the 6th and 7th to hold the lead. Right?

[tobi0040]

 

I simply don't understand.

i'm sure Molitor has made mistakes and I'm also sure that Joe Maddon has made mistakes and I'm also sure that Tona LaRussa made them every year.

Bottom line... Nobody expected the Twins to be here and saying its Molitor's fault that we are better than expected makes no sense to me.

 

The other day I said if our pen had'nt blown those two games in KC we would be neck and neck for first. I was complaining, then   thought....I never thought I would have been able to say that this year.

 

RE: Bunting Kurt.  Against Price probaby has a 1 in 5 chance of getting a hit, if that.  With about a 90% chance of that hit being a single.  I am fine with it

 

 

 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

He should have pitched the 6th and 7th to hold the lead. Right?

No, but he has only appeared in one game where he could make a difference, and he did.

 

In that situation with two outs, you want a guy who doesn't put the ball in play. Blaine Boyer is not that guy. Trevor May is. That fourth run shouldn't have scored.

[Mike Sixel]

A sacrifice has a 99% chance of being an out.....the math is simple. It is all over the internet. It decreases your odds of scoring multiple runs. Turned out, they needed 5, not 1-2........

 

I'm not saying he's a good or bad manager, but this seems like the right thread to discuss his decisions. And the May thing is baffling.

 

They "bench" one of their best pitchers, to keep Pelfrey, and then DON'T USE said pitcher in important situations? Mind. Boggling.

[tobi0040]

 

A sacrifice has a 99% chance of being an out.....the math is simple. It is all over the internet. It decreases your odds of scoring multiple runs. Turned out, they needed 5, not 1-2........

 

I'm not saying he's a good or bad manager, but this seems like the right thread to discuss his decisions. And the May thing is baffling.

 

They "bench" one of their best pitchers, to keep Pelfrey, and then DON'T USE said pitcher in important situations? Mind. Boggling.

 

OK, giving up an out decreases your odds of scoring multiple runs. Makes sense. But having a guy at second versus first increases your odds of scoring one run, even with one more out.

 

The question is, how likely is scoring multiple runs with a runner on first and two low average guys and zero power guys in Suzuki and Robinson up against David Price?  Price has a 2.38 ERA, 1.80 BB per 9, .65 HR per 9, BA against is .239.  That is the thought process.  You need two singles to score one run versus one. 

 

 

[Squirrel]

 

A sacrifice has a 99% chance of being an out.....the math is simple. It is all over the internet. It decreases your odds of scoring multiple runs. Turned out, they needed 5, not 1-2........

 

I'm not saying he's a good or bad manager, but this seems like the right thread to discuss his decisions. And the May thing is baffling.

 

They "bench" one of their best pitchers, to keep Pelfrey, and then DON'T USE said pitcher in important situations? Mind. Boggling.

But in Suzuki's case, would you rather have one out or two, or an out without the runner advancing? I think not bunting you have a higher likelihood or Zukes hitting a short fly, pop up or into a DP.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I didn't agree with the second inning bunt, but whatever. My opinion is that Suzuki was bunting because Molitor feared Suzuki might hit into a double play, which would have prevented Dozier from batting with those runners on base later in the inning.

 

Radio announcers said Pelfrey wasn't throwing his split finger fastball with a runner on third in the 8th. The problem is, that's his best pitch. My guess is that Molitor was afraid a split finger might result in a wild pitch which would score the go ahead run for Detroit.

 

I like Molitor but it felt like he was managing scared and "not to lose" last night. We saw some good surprises early in the season (like JR Graham pitching those 3 innings in Pittsburgh) and some good things like the shifts are still happening, but I think Molitor is a little stale right now.

 

Lots of posters want Molitor to try May as a 7th or 8th inning guy. Something outside the box. No dice on that one, apparently. Or with Fryer's strong debut Wednesday, maybe play Fryer on back to back days. An idea so zany it just might work! But you get the feeling Suzuki will be out there 2 of the 3 remaining games before the break.

[drjim]

 

No, but he has only appeared in one game where he could make a difference, and he did.

In that situation with two outs, you want a guy who doesn't put the ball in play. Blaine Boyer is not that guy. Trevor May is. That fourth run shouldn't have scored.

 

I would be quite surprised if they bring May into the middle of an inning at this point. At least a couple of weeks away from doing that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would be quite surprised if they bring May into the middle of an inning at this point. At least a couple of weeks away from doing that.

That's possible. This singular instance doesn't bother me as much as concern over whether they plan to use him in a long role and not during critical moments (read 7/8/9 innings) of games.

[drjim]

 

That's possible. This singular instance doesn't bother me as much as concern over whether they plan to use him in a long role and not during critical moments (read 7/8/9 innings) of games.

 

I still think it is seen as very temporary. I do think if he stays for a little bit he will start 6th and 7th innings (and extra inning tie games). Just don't see him coming in the middle of innings with runners on base.