Rule 5 Redux: Graham in, Gilmartin out

[Wookiee of the Year]

MLBTradeRumors had an article yesterday providing an update on 2014 Rule 5 Draft picks across MLB.

 

The two to highlight:

 

J.R. Graham is a RHP working in the Twins' bullpen. In 2015, he's given the Twins: 36 IP, 27 K, 11 BB, 3.00 ERA, 4.30 xFIP.

 

Sean Gilmartin is a LHP taken from the Twins by the Mets. They converted him from a starter to a bullpen arm, and this year, he's given the Mets: 25 IP, 20 K, 10 BB, 1.80 ERA, 4.14 xFIP.

 

I remember being surprised the Twins didn't add Gilmartin to the 40 Man Roster last winter.

 

So now I'm curious: Given the choice, would you prefer the Twins had put Gilmartin on the 40 Man in the spot that eventually went to Graham? Or do you prefer Graham to Gilmartin?

[Kwak]

I prefer Gilmartin to Duensing.

[spinowner]

 

I prefer Gilmartin to Duensing.

This is the right answer.

[blairpaul715]

I also think most of us are happy with Graham, and really had no real feeling one way or the other losing Gilmartin at the time, but in hindsight, it would be nice to have Gilmartin, and he probably would have been kept if they were not going to sign Duensing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So now I'm curious: Given the choice, would you prefer the Twins had put Gilmartin on the 40 Man in the spot that eventually went to Graham? Or do you prefer Graham to Gilmartin?

As others allude to, it was never really Gilmartin vs. Graham.  Gilmartin could have taken the 40-man spot from Oliveros, Pryor, Darnell, Duensing, Thielbar, Thompson, Schafer, etc., and been stashed in AAA if we so desired.  And we still could have added Graham as a Rule 5'er ticketed for the MLB pen.

 

Personally, given Gilmartin's splits and our lack of quality LHP in the pen, I would have auditioned him as a reliever last year in MLB, to see if he could have been a better fit for our 40-man roster than some of the other names above (Duensing and his salary being the obvious one).  Basically, last year's Taylor Rogers.

 

Although Gilmartin is actually doing better against RHB than LHB for the Mets now, so who knows if he will be a bullpen asset long-term.

[USAFChief]

They could probably have a better Gilmarton now if they'd just move Rogers to the pen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They could probably have a better Gilmarton now if they'd just move Rogers to the pen.

And Rogers is Rule 5 eligible this winter too, so we should probably take a look at him now to avoid Gilmartin redux (or Darnell redux, where we give him the 40-man roster spot before his bullpen audition).

[Minniman]

As others allude to, it was never really Gilmartin vs. Graham.  Gilmartin could have taken the 40-man spot from Oliveros, Pryor, Darnell, Duensing, Thielbar, Thompson, Schafer, etc., and been stashed in AAA if we so desired.  And we still could have added Graham as a Rule 5'er ticketed for the MLB pen.

 

 

I do not know how good Gilmartin will be, but some of these other guys were not getting it done, so why expose the good arm?

 

[Wookiee of the Year]

 

I prefer Gilmartin to Duensing.

Certainly, 40 Man roster spots are fungible and there's nothing that forced the Twins to choose between Graham and Gilmartin.

 

However, it doesn't seem like that much of a stretch to say if Gilmartin was the "next-ranked" prospect on most lists to consider protecting (Twinkie Town suggested it at the time, for instance), and the Twins opted to leave a spot open to make a Rule 5 selection, that there was something of a "Gilmartin vs. a Rule 5 selection" calculation going on.

 

So while Gilmartin over Duensing is a clear no-brainer today--and was a logical choice at the time, too--I am curious how much regret there is over losing Gilmartin, vs. the gain of Graham.

[goulik]

Gilmartin was my Adopt A Prospect last year and someone I was disappointed about losing. While he was a high draft pick for a different team, he was not a highly regarded Twins prospect on TD. Not many complaints about losing him until he started killing it as an MLB reliever this year. Hind sight is 20/20.

[drjim]

Watching him he really doesn't look all that different from Duensing. Just don't see this as much of a loss.

[jokin]

Gilmartin 25 years of age.   He'll make the minimum for the next 2.5 seasons

 

Has a strong minor league history vs. LHB  K/9 9.45 BB/9 0.81.

This year combined K/9 7.20 BB/9 3.60 ERA 1.80 K% 20.2% BA .191 WHIP 1.08

 

Duensing 32 years of age.  Making $2.7 M. 

 

This year combined K/9 4.91 BB/9 4.91 ERA 6.87   K% 12.1% BA .296 WHIP 1.69

 

Gilmartin is definitely no panacea that would have solved all of the Twins LHRP problems, but there is a distinct difference in performance between Duensing and him.  And he certainly deserved protection over Wheeler and Darnell.

[jokin]

 

 

Gilmartin was my Adopt A Prospect last year and someone I was disappointed about losing. While he was a high draft pick for a different team, he was not a highly regarded Twins prospect on TD. Not many complaints about losing him until he started killing it as an MLB reliever this year. Hind sight is 20/20.

 

There were actually quite a few of us on TD that questioned the decision not to protect him at the time.   And one of the big national publications interviewed a Twins executive on the day of the Rule 5 draft (one whose name I can not recall at the moment).   The executive did express some degree of remorse for gambling and losing on Gilmartin.   They knew what they had lost, probably doing their own gambling on the guys they had already developed in the Twins Way coming through big in 2015.   Alas, that hasn''t happened, the Twins really can't point to one LHRP as a success   story in 2015, and resultantly, the Mets are now a marginally better team for it.

[stringer bell]

Gilmartin started last year in the minors, correct? My recollection, without checking, was that he and Darnell were about the same--so-so velocity, so-so secondary pitches and control. Darnell got his taste of MLB, while Gilmartin started '14 in AA and moved up. Gilmartin's topline numbers look very good for the Mets. My recollection is that he only made the Mets because they had an absolute dearth of LH relief pitching. He's taken his opportunity and run with it. I guess I don't fault the Twins too much for taking the chance of not protecting Sean Gilmartin.

[big dog]

I'm pretty impressed with what I've seen of Graham.  Not as polished as he needs to be, but that's the Rule 5 standard.  If I restrict the discussion to just Graham and Gilmartin, I'd rather have Graham.

 

But "both" would be a better answer.

[Wookiee of the Year]

 

I'm pretty impressed with what I've seen of Graham.  Not as polished as he needs to be, but that's the Rule 5 standard.  If I restrict the discussion to just Graham and Gilmartin, I'd rather have Graham.

 

But "both" would be a better answer.

That might sum up how I feel... Both appear to be "wins" in the Rule 5 draft.

 

I was disappointed when the Twins didn't protect Gilmartin (I protected him in my GM Offseason Plan), and today's evidence shows he was worth holding on to. But even though the Twins could really use an inexpensive, effective LHRP right now, I like Graham and think he has more upside. I would probably take Graham over Gilmartin... but for those of us who like thinking about roster depth and 25th men, I do think it's close enough to be worth thinking about.

[Platoon]

I like Graham. He is a little bit of a power arm, and he seems to have a bulldog personality. He also could be an example of letting a guy get his feet wet before determining if he is going to be able to stay up. Like May, Graham's first few games did not define him. Will Meyers?

[dougkoebernick]

Hindsight rocks.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

However, it doesn't seem like that much of a stretch to say if Gilmartin was the "next-ranked" prospect on most lists to consider protecting (Twinkie Town suggested it at the time, for instance), and the Twins opted to leave a spot open to make a Rule 5 selection, that there was something of a "Gilmartin vs. a Rule 5 selection" calculation going on.

If the Twins thought Gilmartin was that close to "Rule 5" worthy, then he almost certainly should have been protected and optioned to AAA over some of the suspects we chose to protect instead, regardless of their decision on Graham.

 

Not auditioning Gilmartin in 2014 seems like pretty poor resource management.  Look at the 2014 innings we gave to Burton, Swarzak, Correia, Deduno, Pino, Guerrier, and Johnson, most of whom were unlikely to return in 2015 anyway.  Even most of the auditions we did give -- Tonkin, Achter, Thompson, and Oliveros -- seem like they were too brief to be particularly useful, as we protected all of them through the winter but outside of Thompson's April, they have provided almost nothing for the 2015 Twins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My recollection is that he only made the Mets because they had an absolute dearth of LH relief pitching.

And that doesn't apply to the Twins...?

 

Gilmartin was better against LHB at AAA than Darnell.  But we didn't look at either in relief in 2014, and we only protected Darnell for a relief conversion.

 

I am sure they didn't want to expose Darnell to waivers, but given the SP we were acquiring/extending at the time, they should have had the foresight to try this lower tier of starters in relief before the 2014 Rule 5 decision point came about.

[Mike Sixel]

It was a bad decision. They are repeating it with Rodgers right now.......he should be in the bullpen, in AAA or here.

 

Keeping old, bad, veterans around, and not auditioning young guys (last year) is mind. boggling. given their state of rebuilding (especially last year).

 

Plenty of chafe on the roster last year, no reason to expose him at all. To the poster who said this is all hindsight, nope. Most of the people here said it was a bad idea not to protect him over others who had zero future with this team.

[drjim]

 

And that doesn't apply to the Twins...?

 

Gilmartin was better against LHB at AAA than Darnell.  But we didn't look at either in relief in 2014, and we only protected Darnell for a relief conversion.

 

I am sure they didn't want to expose Darnell to waivers, but given the SP we were acquiring/extending at the time, they should have had the foresight to try this lower tier of starters in relief before the 2014 Rule 5 decision point came about.

 

Twins have 2-3 LH in Rochester that are probably as good as Gilmartin. That really isn't the issue at the moment.

 

I suspect they made the decision based on stuff/velocity.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Twins have 2-3 LH in Rochester that are probably as good as Gilmartin. That really isn't the issue at the moment.

 

I suspect they made the decision based on stuff/velocity.

 

Maybe they should be in MN......

[kab21]

Yes, maybe gilmartin could have been kept over some other roster fodder but I am not going to fault the team for not keeping an 88 mph lefty with middling MiLB success.  I am very intrigued by Graham and I loved that pick and what he has shown so far.

[drjim]

Maybe they should be in MN......

At least one of them.

 

But realistically they and Gilmartin and Duensing are all close to the same guy. But certainly worth it to see if one can perform better than Duensing for three months, pretty low bar.

[USAFChief]

Twins have 2-3 LH in Rochester that are probably as good as Gilmartin. That really isn't the issue at the moment.

 

I suspect they made the decision based on stuff/velocity.

They do? Then where are they?

 

TR has been quoted several times in the past couple years saying they need to get LH pitching into the organization. Losing one to a rule five pick seems open to second guessing to me.

[drjim]

 

They do? Then where are they?

TR has been quoted several times in the past couple years saying they need to get LH pitching into the organization. Losing one to a rule five pick seems open to second guessing to me.

 

Oh, they should have protected him.

 

EDIT: But my bigger point is that if Gilmartin was in the organization right now I'm not sure he would be in the majors ahead of, say, Rogers or Darnell.

[jokin]

 

Oh, they should have protected him.

 

EDIT: But my bigger point is that if Gilmartin was in the organization right now I'm not sure he would be in the majors ahead of, say, Rogers or Darnell.

\

That's not exactly a crisp defense of the Twins personnel decision-making.  In effect, what you're saying is that the Twins decided that Gilmarin was the third , actually 4th if you count O'Rourke, best LHP option in the minors, and evidently, they have had no interest in any of them helping, despite the LHP disaster in the major league pen, and yet, the Mets -who are all-in this year, with a far superior pen to the Twins ( 11th best by fWAR, vs 24th best for the Twins) were more than happy to make room for another LHP in their pen.

 

Oh, and let's not forget, Thompson, Duensing and T-Bar in this LHP options equation, all were clearly seen as superior options to Gilmartin.  

 

FWIW, it looks like T-Bar is nearing the end of the road.  Tonight in 1 IP, he gave up 4 ER on 3 Hits, 3 BB and 0 K.

[drjim]

 

\

That's not exactly a crisp defense of the Twins personnel decision-making.  In effect, what you're saying is that the Twins decided that Gilmarin was the third , actually 4th if you count O'Rourke, best LHP option in the minors, and evidently, they have had no interest in any of them helping, despite the LHP disaster in the major league pen, and yet, the Mets -who are all-in this year, with a far superior pen to the Twins ( 11th best by fWAR, vs 24th best for the Twins) were more than happy to make room for another LHP in their pen.

 

Oh, and let's not forget, Thompson, Duensing and T-Bar in this LHP options equation, all were clearly seen as superior options to Gilmartin.  

 

FWIW, it looks like T-Bar is nearing the end of the road.  Tonight in 1 IP, he gave up 4 ER on 3 Hits, 3 BB and 9 K.

 

Believe it or not I don't agree with every decision the Twins front office makes involving personnel.

[nicksaviking]

Not protecting Gilmartin was the wrong move, and I don't think it can be called hindsight when 80% of the board here thought so at the time.

 

Still, I never liked Gilmartin. Through little fault of his own, the Twins inoculated me against liking soft tossing lefty junkballers by now. Considering where Duffy is still sitting, I doubt the Twins would be using Gilmartin as a LOOGY now, he would just be another guy ahead of Berrios in the country club call up line.

 

It was a dumb call, but it might work out because of how the Twins would have used him. Also, I'm happy with Graham's velocity, that's rare in these parts and we might get lucky when he gets re-stretched out next year in the minors.