Article: TD Midseason Top Prospects: #2 Miguel Sano

[Seth Stohs]

Despite missing the entire 2014 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March, Miguel Sano remained the preseason #2 Minnesota Twins prospect here at Twins Daily. It was assumed that Sano would need some time to shake off some rust – and it did – but Sano has come back with a vengeance since a slow start and remains #2 on this list.Age: 22

2015 Stats (AA): .273/.370/.546 (.916), 18-2B, 15-HR, 48 RBI

ETA: 2015

2015 Preseason Ranking: 2

 

What's To Like

 

Since signing with the Minnesota Twins as a 16-year-old “shortstop” way back in October of 2009, Sano has been in the spotlight. Touted as the most talented prospect to come from the Dominican in a while. Baseball America immediately place him in their Top 100 Prospect Ratings (#94) before the 2010 season. He moved up to #60 before the 2011 season. He has been a Top 20 prospect for Baseball America each of the four years since then. Even after missing the entire 2014 season, Sano came in as their #13 prospect this spring. He is a consensus top 15 prospect by all of the major rankings.

 

Despite this being his sixth professional season, and missing all of 2014, Sano only turned 22 years old in May. At 6-4 and 255 pounds, he is an intimidating presence at the plate.

 

His power production has been strong since arriving on the pro scene. His 20 homers at Elizabethton was second only to teammate Eddie Rosario in 2011. In 2012, he launched 28 doubles and 28 home runs in a full season in Beloit. He combined to his 35 home runs in 2013, splitting the season between Ft. Myers and AA New Britain. After missing all of 2014, and starting out slow, he already has 15 home runs in 66 games in Chattanooga.

 

With his power, it is fair to expect some strikeouts. However, Sano has also always been able to coax walks as well. He has made great improvements on his plate discipline and approach over the past couple of seasons.

 

After a look at his overall numbers, it’s easy to say that they look very strong, and they are. However, consider that after going 0-3 on May 1, Sano was hitting .152/.300/.364 (.664). He was displaying some power, but his at-bats were not always pretty. He had 23 strikeouts in 80 plate appearances (28.8%).

 

Since that day, Sano has been very good, reminiscent of his past years. In 46 games since that day, he has hit .320/.398/.616 (1.014) with 16 doubles and 11 home runs. He has 44 strikeouts in 201 plate appearances (22.9%).

 

He has been very good in June. In 21 games this month, he has hit .329/.422/.671 (1.093) with eight doubles and six home runs.

 

On Monday, he was named the Southern League hitter of the week after going 13-28 in his last seven games. In that time, he hit .464/.531/1.000 (1.531) with six doubles and three home runs. On Monday night, he went 1-3 with two walks.

 

 

What's Left To Work On

 

Twins fans may hate to hear it, but the word that can and will likely be used in describing Sano is “consistency.” Since his slow start with the bat, Sano has been very good and pretty consistent.

 

Defensively, it’s a different story. There have always been those who questioned whether Sano could play third base in the big leagues. I personally have believed that he could since seeing his first half to second half improvement in the Midwest League in 2011. Despite his size, Sano is a very good athlete and has made many diving, spectacular plays. His errors have often come on more routine plays.

 

Some have questioned his arm following surgery. He threw close to 94 mph before the surgery. Even if his velocity drops to 89 mph, that’s a very strong arm for third base. All reports have said that his arm remains very strong.

 

 

What's Next

 

Any rust that Miguel Sano had following Tommy John surgery and a missed season has been shaken. Sano is back to putting up the types of numbers that we had come to expect from him.

 

The reality is that if Trevor Plouffe were to get injured and need to go on the DL, Sano would come up. He is ready. The other reality is that the Twins have not had much production from the DH position this season. It’s very possible that if the GM wants to inject some offense, Sano could be the guy to get that call.

If nothing else, a promotion to AAA Rochester could be coming soon. I tend to think that he will jump from AA to the big leagues.

 

Miguel Sano is the biggest power-hitting prospect that the Twins have had since, well, Justin Morneau? Maybe Harmon Killebrew? Yesterday Nick wrote about JO Berrios who has continued to pitch very well and in most organizations could be the number two, if not the number one, prospect. After missing a year, Sano has come back and been able to maintain that number two ranking which says a lot about the Twins organization. It also says a lot about Miguel Sano.

 

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[Lefty]

Bring him up!

[theBOMisthebomb]

Now is the time - not sure what we are waiting for. Let's see if Sano can infuse some offense and get us rolling again.

[tobi0040]

"Since that day, Sano has been very good, reminiscent of his past years. In 46 games since that day, he has hit .320/.398/.616 (1.014) with 16 doubles and 11 home runs. He has 44 strikeouts in 201 plate appearances (22.9%)."

 

I would argue he has been playing much better than his past years.  Specifically, the .320 average versus his career minor average of .278.  His previous year in AA yielded an average of .236 and an OPS of .914. 

 

I think he is up in about a month as the DH.  My guess is that they still want him to stick at 3B and want him to get more reps there.  In the meantime, he is up if either Plouffe or Mauer get hurt (Mauer getting hurt moves Trevor to 1B and Sano to 3B).  At this point I just don't see the other longer term alternatives like trading Plouffe or moving Sano to the outfield.

[Mike Sixel]

Is there any good reason he is not in AAA or MN right now?

 

Same with Kepler (though I'd think he should be in AAA)?

[HitInAPinch]

 

Is there any good reason he is not in AAA or MN right now?

 

Same with Kepler (though I'd think he should be in AAA)?

As far as being in MN right now:  From the Pioneer Press a couple days ago: 

"Twins general manager Terry Ryan doesn't think Miguel Sano's bat is big-league ready."

 

Here's the link:  http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_28398169/minnesota-twins-not-rushing-miguel-sano-call-up

 

I think Sano should be promoted to AAA.  A maybe on Kepler.  In 58 games, his stats are really impressive and a pretty good jump from the rest of his MiLB stats.  If he keeps it up over the next couple weeks,Kepler is AAA bound as well.

[goulik]

How about a Sano/Ploufe/Mauer platoon at DH....

[nytwinsfan]

 

As far as being in MN right now:  From the Pioneer Press a couple days ago: 

"Twins general manager Terry Ryan doesn't think Miguel Sano's bat is big-league ready."

 

 

Bull ****. Translation, Sano is ready, but Plouffe is playing well at third base and given the uncertainty about whether the Twins will remain in the playoff hunt this September, I'm keeping things in a holding pattern for now. 

 

I actually don't disagree with Ryan's strategy, I just wish he'd be more honest about it. I think we want Sano playing third base every day, and I don't think he'll do that until Plouffe is gone, and that isn't going to happen while there is still a decent chance of the Twins making the playoffs. I know that isn't the popular opinion (either because people want Sano up playing DH right now at the cost of his defensive development at 3B or, on the other extreme, they want Plouffe traded right now). But frankly, I think the holding pattern is the best way to go, at least until the Twins either collapse, or Sept. comes and they are still in contention, in which case Sano is not going to be playing 3B otherwise anyway, and you may as well make him your DH to finish out the year.

[tobi0040]

 

Bull ****. Translation, Sano is ready, but Plouffe is playing well at third base and given the uncertainty about whether the Twins will remain in the playoff hunt this September, I'm keeping things in a holding pattern for now. 

 

I actually don't disagree with Ryan's strategy, I just wish he'd be more honest about it. I think we want Sano playing third base every day, and I don't think he'll do that until Plouffe is gone, and that isn't going to happen while there is still a decent chance of the Twins making the playoffs. I know that isn't the popular opinion (either because people want Sano up playing DH right now at the cost of his defensive development at 3B or, on the other extreme, they want Plouffe traded right now). But frankly, I think the holding pattern is the best way to go, at least until the Twins either collapse, or Sept. comes and they are still in contention, in which case Sano is not going to be playing 3B otherwise anyway, and you may as well make him your DH to finish out the year.

 

Also calling BS on Sano's bat not being MLB ready.  But that is GM speak.  They are not ready until the GM calls them up and suddenly they are ready.

 

The funny thing is it is all relative.  Sano vs. Vargas?  Enough said.

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, taking 2 months off from playing 3B every day is not, imo, going to cripple his career. You might get 2-3 chances a game....

[tobi0040]

 

Ya, taking 2 months off from playing 3B every day is not, imo, going to cripple his career. You might get 2-3 chances a game....

 

Especially when he can go to winter ball and get at least half those reps back.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

But, apparently, his bat isn't ready......so I guess we won't be seeing him soon.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Ya, taking 2 months off from playing 3B every day is not, imo, going to cripple his career. You might get 2-3 chances a game....

Cripple, no. But taking reps in games is not the same as taking them in practice. And especially for a lot of young players, defense is about learning to focus every moment of every game. And that means that it isn't just those 2-3 chances where you are improving, but all the others where the ball never comes your way, where you are learning to be fully ready despite the large probability you won't be involved in the play.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Mauer to RF, Sano to 1B. Presto change-o. And, no, I don't care about Aaron Hicks, so just save it.

[jimbo92107]

 

Is there any good reason he is not in AAA or MN right now?

 

Same with Kepler (though I'd think he should be in AAA)?

Miguel Sano isn't being blocked by Trevor Plouffe at this point; it's Kennys Vargas. The Twins have been waiting to see if Vargas can get back some of that Big Papi look that he had last season, but so far it's not really happening. For some reason Vargas has toned down his power swings from both sides of the plate. Is it the Twins hitting philosophy, the same thing David Ortiz complained about? It could be that Bruno is trying to make Vargas more like Dozier, that is, more selective about which situations to unleash the home run swing. The down side is that Vargas doesn't look terrifying anymore. He looks like a poor imitation of Dozier.

 

This opens up an opportunity for Miguel Sano to push Vargas down to AAA. Nobody is going to tell Sano to tone down his approach because it's already good enough to stick in the bigs. Sano can DH right now and do what the Twins were hoping Vargas would do.

 

As for Kepler, I would also like to see him go to AAA, at least for a while. I'd like to see him face a little better pitching before he makes the leap, to make sure he's ready. Kepler could be special, but he needs to keep honing his baseball craft a bit longer.

 

Frankly, the team should have done that with Byron Buxton, too. Compared to his physical tools, Buxton's level of baseball savvy seemed shockingly inadequate. Head-first slides with no gloves? Can't the team afford them?? The real eye-opener was Billy Hamilton. Probably no faster than Buxton, but the difference in baserunning skill is stark. Hamilton knows how to get a creeping lead, where Buxton stands rooted, not even hopping. Hamilton knows how to time a pitcher's move to home, where Buxton doesn't have a clue. Hamilton goes in feet first with a pop-up slide. Does Buxton even know how to do a pop-up slide? Why didn't somebody teach Buxton how to steal bases?

[jokin]

 

But, apparently, his bat isn't ready......so I guess we won't be seeing him soon.

 

You forgot the requisite emoticons:       :s-instagib:

[jokin]

 

 

 

Frankly, the team should have done that with Byron Buxton, too. Compared to his physical tools, Buxton's level of baseball savvy seemed shockingly inadequate. Head-first slides with no gloves? Can't the team afford them?? The real eye-opener was Billy Hamilton. Probably no faster than Buxton, but the difference in baserunning skill is stark. Hamilton knows how to get a creeping lead, where Buxton stands rooted, not even hopping. Hamilton knows how to time a pitcher's move to home, where Buxton doesn't have a clue. Hamilton goes in feet first with a pop-up slide. Does Buxton even know how to do a pop-up slide? Why didn't somebody teach Buxton how to steal bases?

 

And he's obviously never been asked or taught to bunt (remember when Buxton said he hadn't been asked to lay down a sacrifice bunt since Rookie League?).  This is a major indictment on the Twins developmental philosophies- and we've seen that lack of fundamental soundness played out in recent years with prospect after prospect, as they've been called up and been exposed.  

 

Having said all that, as I've posted elsewhere, Buxton still produced a net 0.3 WAR in only 11 games played- he's a freak athlete with a far better future than Billy Hamilton has- Buck's fully capable of learning the remedial lessons at the highest level that weren't taught to him in the lower minors. 

Edited June 30, 2015 by jokin

[d-mac]

 

Bull ****. Translation, Sano is ready, but Plouffe is playing well at third base and given the uncertainty about whether the Twins will remain in the playoff hunt this September, I'm keeping things in a holding pattern for now. 

 

I actually don't disagree with Ryan's strategy, I just wish he'd be more honest about it. I think we want Sano playing third base every day, and I don't think he'll do that until Plouffe is gone, and that isn't going to happen while there is still a decent chance of the Twins making the playoffs. I know that isn't the popular opinion (either because people want Sano up playing DH right now at the cost of his defensive development at 3B or, on the other extreme, they want Plouffe traded right now). But frankly, I think the holding pattern is the best way to go, at least until the Twins either collapse, or Sept. comes and they are still in contention, in which case Sano is not going to be playing 3B otherwise anyway, and you may as well make him your DH to finish out the year.

 

I agree on both parts. I think that is likely the best strategy, however, I'd consider moving Plouffe or Sano to a different position first. 

 

And Terry Ryan would have made a great politician in a different life. He's rarely truthful, only speaks in half-truths and platitudes. 

[Loosey]

 

As far as being in MN right now:  From the Pioneer Press a couple days ago: 

"Twins general manager Terry Ryan doesn't think Miguel Sano's bat is big-league ready."

 

Here's the link:  http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_28398169/minnesota-twins-not-rushing-miguel-sano-call-up

 

I think Sano should be promoted to AAA.  A maybe on Kepler.  In 58 games, his stats are really impressive and a pretty good jump from the rest of his MiLB stats.  If he keeps it up over the next couple weeks,Kepler is AAA bound as well.

Is it just me or does everyone else cringe when listening/reading Terry Ryan quotes.  Totally contradicts himself and is straight up afraid of bringing guys up that will be or are already better than the current players.  He wants the callups to be Major League players before they are major league players and that can't happen unless they get some time in the big leagues. 

 

"You never know if a guy is ready until you get him here," Ryan said.  Yet he claims Sano isn't ready, how does he know, he doesn't have him here yet. 

 

Sorry I'm done with my rant. . .

[tobi0040]

At the time of his promotion to the big leagues, Vargas was 23 and had an OPS of .832 in AA.  He had 17 HR in 97 games. Those 97 games were his only above A ball.  His OPS over his minor career is .856.  He has never sniffed a top 100 prospect list. 

 

Sano is 22, has an OPS of .918 in AA.  He has played 133 games above A ball (in addition to winter league). He has 15 HR in 66 games.  His minors OPS is .937 and has consistently been a top 23 prospect the last four years, peaking at #4.

 

What told Terry that Vargas was ready and Sano is not?

Edited June 30, 2015 by tobi0040

[Loosey]

 

At the time of his promotion to the big leagues, Vargas was 23 and had an OPS of .832 in AA.  He had 17 HR in 97 games. Those 97 games were his only above A ball.  His OPS over his minor career is .856.  He has never sniffed a top 100 prospect list. 

 

Sano is 22, has an OPS of .918 in AA.  He has played 133 games above A ball (in addition to winter league). He has 15 HR in 66 games.  His minors OPS is .937 and has consistently been a top 23 prospect the last four years, peaking at #4.

 

What told Terry that Vargas was ready and Sano is not?

I don't think Terry Ryan is savvy enough to use those complicated stats like OPS and games played.

[jokin]

 

At the time of his promotion to the big leagues, Vargas was 23 and had an OPS of .832 in AA.  He had 17 HR in 97 games. Those 97 games were his only above A ball.  His OPS over his minor career is .856.  He has never sniffed a top 100 prospect list. 

 

Sano is 22, has an OPS of .918 in AA.  He has played 133 games above A ball (in addition to winter league). He has 15 HR in 66 games.  His minors OPS is .937 and has consistently been a top 23 prospect the last four years, peaking at #4.

 

What told Terry that Vargas was ready and Sano is not?

 

Yep, Sano's clearly not ready.  "In Terry We Trust"

[d-mac]

There is no reason Sano, Kepler, and Polanco shouldn't be in AAA today. I'd leave ABW in AA for a full season. I'm glad they moved up Berrios to AAA. Here's how I'd play it:

 

I would have Sano getting reps at 1st and in RF in addition to his time at 3rd. I would also like to see Mauer and Plouffe get time in RF. Mauer isn't going anywhere with that contract and there is no reason to trade away Plouffe yet- he's an established, productive player and we don't have enough of those on this team.  I would like to see what Sano's bat would do against more experienced AAA pitching, before I'd bring him up. He's going to strike-out at the ML level, but Sano has shown the ability to reduce his K rate the more experience he gets at each level- so I'd wait for that point where he starts to reduce his K% in AAA before bringing him up to make that jump as easy as possible.

 

I think Polanco can come up and play SS at anytime- from what little I've seen he looks ready with the bat- and he's probably no more error prone than Santana, who has no bat.

 

Kepler, is likely almost ready to- that BB/K ratio is a thing of beauty. But he likely needs to stay in AAA until September to round off some of those rough edges.   

 

When Buxton is healthy, he needs to go to AAA. He clearly wasn't ready. Leave him there until September. 

[tobi0040]

 

Yep, Sano's clearly not ready.  "In Terry We Trust"

 

Yeah.   I would appreciate some brutal honesty. 

 

"We believe we have players in the minors right now that would have been promoted already had it been 2011-2014, but we are at a point right now where we have more talented players than roster spots.  It is a good problem to have"

[tobi0040]

Buxton - Starting CF when healthy.  Give him another 25 games and put him in AAA if he does not improve, with clear things to work on like breaking balls.

 

Sano - Starting DH now. Ready and the best option.

 

Polanco - Starting SS. Ready and the best option.

 

Kepler - I would promote to AAA.  You could argue he is ready, but the Twins have themselves in a pickle.  Hunter, Buxton, Hicks, and Rosario.  I would not introduce another guy there.

 

Berrios - Leave in AAA right now.  If he forces the Twins hand someone or two have to be traded. 

[howieramone2]

 

I agree on both parts. I think that is likely the best strategy, however, I'd consider moving Plouffe or Sano to a different position first. 

 

And Terry Ryan would have made a great politician in a different life. He's rarely truthful, only speaks in half-truths and platitudes. 

Why? He's made the HOF as a scout and it's just a matter of time until he does as a GM.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There is no reason Sano, Kepler, and Polanco shouldn't be in AAA today. I'd leave ABW in AA for a full season. I'm glad they moved up Berrios to AAA. Here's how I'd play it:

 

I would have Sano getting reps at 1st and in RF in addition to his time at 3rd. I would also like to see Mauer and Plouffe get time in RF. Mauer isn't going anywhere with that contract and there is no reason to trade away Plouffe yet- he's an established, productive player and we don't have enough of those on this team.  I would like to see what Sano's bat would do against more experienced AAA pitching, before I'd bring him up. He's going to strike-out at the ML level, but Sano has shown the ability to reduce his K rate the more experience he gets at each level- so I'd wait for that point where he starts to reduce his K% in AAA before bringing him up to make that jump as easy as possible.

 

I think Polanco can come up and play SS at anytime- from what little I've seen he looks ready with the bat- and he's probably no more error prone than Santana, who has no bat.

 

Kepler, is likely almost ready to- that BB/K ratio is a thing of beauty. But he likely needs to stay in AAA until September to round off some of those rough edges.   

 

When Buxton is healthy, he needs to go to AAA. He clearly wasn't ready. Leave him there until September. 

 

I love every piece of this.......every piece.

[jokin]

 

I love every piece of this.......every piece.

 

I liked everything except the last paragraph:

 

 

When Buxton is healthy, he needs to go to AAA. He clearly wasn't ready. Leave him there until September.

 

For sure, he needs to go there on rehab, and perhaps a bit longer if he gets off to a slow start (and assuming that he passes a course in AAA in Sliding 101).  

 

But he's proven by the eye test that he's clearly MLB ready in the OF, he actually appears to be on the verge of elite CF defense, and his 0.5 dWAR in only 11 games confirms that assessment- he can still be a net help to the Twins if they're still in the hunt upon his return.  Regardless of how the Twins are doing, I think he will be best served going forward by having the opportunity to get close to 200 MLB PAs to close out the season.

[jokin]

 

Why? He's made the HOF as a scout and it's just a matter of time until he does as a GM.

 

Uhh, the politician characterization still works with your analogy.  If Ryan ends up making the real HOF, it will be more based on the politics of baseball and the Old Boys Club, plus his longevity "achieved" with a club that doesn't fire anybody.  And there's no denying that the Hall and the Hall voters, is/are a very political body.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I liked everything except the last paragraph:

 

 

For sure, he needs to go there on rehab, and perhaps a bit longer if he gets off to a slow start (and assuming that he passes a course in AAA in Sliding 101).  

 

But he's proven by the eye test that he's clearly MLB ready in the OF, he actually appears to be on the verge of elite CF defense, and his 0.5 dWAR in only 11 games confirms that assessment- he can still be a net help to the Twins if they're still in the hunt upon his return.  Regardless of how the Twins are doing, I think he will be best served going forward by having the opportunity to get close to 200 MLB PAs to close out the season.

 

I'd say my love for that last part was less strong, but I have not decided where I stand on that right now.......