Taylor Rogers as the #1 LHRP option going forward

[jokin]

I've never been a big fan of Rogers as a major league SP. Yesterday's performance was certainly impressive, as the S/WB team leads the IL in BA and OPS. But even with that performance, he's only gotten to the 7th inning 6 times in 13 starts. And one of the prime reasons he did well yesterday was that 7 of his 8 Ks were against LHB, and collectively, the 4 S/WB LHBs went 0 for 14 against him. He practically has had complete domination of lefties, throughout his career.

Consider, Rogers v. LHB:

FIP 1.71 GB% 57.9% K% 30% K/9 10.22 K/BB 9.6 BA .206 OPS .499

Think I'm padding his stats by including the lower minor league levels?

Think again. Rogers vs. LHB in AAA, 2015:

FIP 1.18 GB% 55.6% K% 33% K/9 10.05 K/BB 32 BA .170 OPS .367

See that 32? That's right. 32 Ks and 1 BB.

Here's your replacement for Duensing. Rogers is bound to pick up at least a couple ticks on his FB in a relief role. Plus he's 6'3" and still only 24 years old. And as Mike and others have noted in the MiLB thread, his chances of getting a starting gig with the Twins any time soon are slim, and as Berrios soon enters the SP equation, growing ever slimmer.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm wondering if he has more value to the team as a starter, but yeah, not a bad option.  How's Ryan Orouke doing against lefties this year?  Righties hit him well last season, but his numbers were ridiculous against lefties.

[Linus]

I like it.  The Twins need a loogy in the worst way and need one now.  He's not likely to be a starter for them considering who they have signed and coming up.

 

If they drop out of contention, he can go back to starting in Rochester.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How's Ryan Orouke doing against lefties this year?  Righties hit him well last season, but his numbers were ridiculous against lefties.

O'Rourke is performing similarly this year:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=orourk001rya&type=pgl&year=2015

[Otto von Ballpark]

Gilmartin was similarly dominant against LHB last year.  (Interestingly, he's been about equally effective against both LHB and RHB so far in MLB this year.)

[Mike Sixel]

He is very unlikely to start more than a handful of games for the Twins, w/o many injuries happening.

 

In front of him this year:

Hughes, Gibson, May, Santana, Nolasco, Milone, Pelfrey

 

could leapfrog him soon:

Berrios

 

could rebound and overtake him:

Meyer

 

In 2 years:

Hu, Gonsalves, random other players

 

In the mean time, the Twins have NO LOOGY, and he could provide real value to the team right now. And next year, and the year after. He's MUCH more likely to play in the majors as a RP than as a SP. But for some reason, the Twins' don't make this move very often. Bird in the hand, and whatnot.....

[jokin]

 

I'm wondering if he has more value to the team as a starter, but yeah, not a bad option.  How's Ryan Orouke doing against lefties this year?  Righties hit him well last season, but his numbers were ridiculous against lefties.

 

Gilmartin was similarly dominant against LHB last year.  (Interestingly, he's been about equally effective against both LHB and RHB so far in MLB this year.)

 

Yep, as I wrote in the other thread:

 

"In the wake of the Gilmartin decision, I think the Twins need to think about their LHP prospect options a little more creatively."

 

I still can't understand why you would let a former 1st round   pick/LHP prospect just walk   away in favor of the others the Twins chose to protect... or in the case of Duensing, re-sign.

[jokin]

 

Gilmartin was similarly dominant against LHB last year.  (Interestingly, he's been about equally effective against both LHB and RHB so far in MLB this year.)

 

I also forgot to mention that the Twins elected to protect Logan Darnell and Jason Wheeler over Gilmartin, along with sticking with Thompson, T-Bar   and Duensing.    Wheeler hasn't been able to get many Ks from either side of the plate-  K/9 5.09.   Darnell has been converted to a RP,   struggled mightily with his control,   and he has managed to "achieve" fairly extreme reverse splits so far:

 

Darnell v. LHB

 

SIERA 4.40   K/9 5.87   K% 13.9%

 

Darnell v RHB

 

SIERA 3.01 K/9 11.68 K% 30.2%

 

I get that baseball is a funny game sometimes, but Darnell is 1.25 years older than Gilmartin and a 5th round pick,  Wheeler was an 8th round pick, both definitely not a 1st rounder like Gilmartin.   I don't get the Twins assessment process in coming to the conclusions for each of their respective potentialities.

 

 

[drivlikejehu]

Rogers isn't very good against right-handed hitters, so he's not a great starting prospect anyway. He seems ready or close to ready as a lefty specialist out of the pen though.

[jokin]

I actually found a prospect service that rated Taylor Rogers the overall #234 prospect:

 

http://top500prospects.com/blog/2015-preseason-top-500-baseball-prospects-rankings/234-Taylor-Rogers/

 

Just behind Stephen Gonsalves at #136, Trevor May at #147 and Nick Burdi at #177, but ahead of Jake Reed at #265 and JR Graham at #439. Of course, without them adding much comment, I would think Rogers might track a lot lower if his role changes in the long term purely to relief. But at least they value his stuff over or near some highly regarded prospects.

[goulik]

I personally like the idea of turning him into a loogy. I also agree that the Twins blew it on Gilmartin. There were definitely others I would have let go before exposing him.

[Dman]

 

I also forgot to mention that the Twins elected to protect Logan Darnell and Jason Wheeler over Gilmartin, along with sticking with Thompson, T-Bar   and Duensing.    Wheeler hasn't been able to get many Ks from either side of the plate-  K/9 5.09.   Darnell has been converted to a RP,   struggled mightily with his control,   and he has managed to "achieve" fairly extreme reverse splits so far:

 

Darnell v. LHB

 

SIERA 4.40   K/9 5.87   K% 13.9%

 

Darnell v RHB

 

SIERA 3.01 K/9 11.68 K% 30.2%

 

I get that baseball is a funny game sometimes, but Darnell is 1.25 years older than Gilmartin and a 5th round pick,  Wheeler was an 8th round pick, both definitely not a 1st rounder like Gilmartin.   I don't get the Twins assessment process in coming to the conclusions for each of their respective potentialities.

 

I'm too lazy to go out and grab stats but Wheeler had a pretty nice year last year.  It seemed like he was a prospect on the rise despite his K rate.  Darnell is a bit tougher sell but again he had a decent year and he seemed like he would improve.

 

The thing I disliked about Gilmartin was it seemed like he always gave up a big inning like four or five runs worth.  he had past arm problems and he was a soft tosser.  So I guess it came down to preference for the Twins and they did not choose Gilmartin.

 

FWIW I along with several others on this board predicted that the Twins would protect Gilmartin by adding him to the 40 man but were surprised when it did not happen.  

 

If it were me I would have let Duensing go but the Twins must have felt he had more in the tank and went the way they did.  I guess they figured Gilmartin was nothing special and could be replaced if someone was willing to take a chance on him.  I still don't think losing him is the end of the world as we have a lot of quality relief pitchers coming up but given the circumstance it would be nice to have him now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

O'Rourke is performing similarly this year:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=orourk001rya&type=pgl&year=2015

 

If that's the case, I'd probably promote him when I DFAd Duensing and leave Rogers as a starter (unless there's a desire to get another lefty setup man).  I think Rogers has far more value as a starter than a reliever. 

[twinssouth]

I haven't seen him pitch yet but will (hopefully if in the rotation) when the Red Wings make their annual trip to Gwinnet GA but I thought I read that his FB sits around 92 to 93 during starts, maybe I'm wrong and thinking of Brett Lee. Isn't he also a fellow U of KY graduate (Twins have so many of them) That's nice velocity for a lefty starter and probably would tick higher in relief. Also, that Prospect page needs to update his file, as to when drafted.

[Vanimal46]

Any one is considered an upgrade over Duensing. Bring him up and see what he can do out of the pen!

[jokin]

If that's the case, I'd probably promote (O"Rourke) when I DFAd Duensing and leave Rogers as a starter (unless there's a desire to get another lefty setup man).  I think Rogers has far more value as a starter than a reliever.

As drivlikjehu noted, Rogers has a long, long way to go against RHB if he's ever going to start in the majors.

 

Rogers vs RHB, 2015:

 

FIP 4.51 GB 49.2% K% 11.6% K/9 4.58 K/BB 1.33 BA .306 OPS .811

 

In addition to that really bad K/BB rate against RHB, he's giving up 11 hits per 9 innings pitched. The gap in his splits is yawningly wide. I think with added velocity from pitching in a relief role, plus Guardado and Allen tweaking a few things, he can offer more than a pure LOOGY. And who knows, perhaps he can translate back to a possible back-end SP at some point in time. But let's be realistic, as of now,he's close to the #10 option for an SP role going into 2016.

[d-mac]

 

 

 

I get that baseball is a funny game sometimes, but Darnell is 1.25 years older than Gilmartin and a 5th round pick,  Wheeler was an 8th round pick, both definitely not a 1st rounder like Gilmartin.   I don't get the Twins assessment process in coming to the conclusions for each of their respective potentialities.

 

What's new? 

[d-mac]

 

 

 

If it were me I would have let Duensing go but the Twins must have felt he had more in the tank and went the way they did.  I guess they figured Gilmartin was nothing special and could be replaced if someone was willing to take a chance on him.  I still don't think losing him is the end of the world as we have a lot of quality relief pitchers coming up but given the circumstance it would be nice to have him now.

 

No, it's definitely not a big deal. But TR has always proven to be a poor manager of the 40-man. We seem to lose a lot of cheap, young, role players with options left for nothing in return in order to protect a more expensive, older, veteran retread. 

[jokin]

No, it's definitely not a big deal. But TR has always proven to be a poor manager of the 40-man. We seem to lose a lot of cheap, young, role players with options left for nothing in return in order to protect a more expensive, older, veteran retread.

That's exactly right.

 

But I'll take a small issue on whether or not it's a big deal. The Twins clearly would have been much better off with Gilmartin's 22.1 innings over Duensing's 13 innings and T-Bar's 5 innings, maybe gotten an extra win.

[Dman]

 

That's exactly right.

But I'll take a small issue on whether or not it's a big deal. The Twins clearly would have been much better off with Gilmartin's 22.1 innings over Duensing's 13 innings and T-Bar's 5 innings, maybe gotten an extra win.

 

I don't have the level of access that the Twins do but I never saw the value of keeping Duensing around.  People on this board stated his velocity and veterannes but he looked like he was declining to me.  Many people on here felt like we had guys,  Gilmartin being one that was mentioned last year that could fill that position and if one failed you could bring up another one.  For me it was go young and build for the future.  That being said I have under valued and given up on older players before and they have proven me wrong and made me look silly.  The Twins must have thought no one would take him or else they gave up too early it appears.

[Rosterman]

I questioned the Twins 40-manning Darnell, unless they were keeping him as a starting alternative. But that seems to have disappeared and there's nothing special about him to groom him longterm in the bullpen.

 

I don't know why they felt the need to protect Wheeler, either.

 

And NOT protect Gilmartin, who could still be offered back to the Twins (if not picked up by someone else) at some point.

 

Rogers is not a longterm option as a starter. He can't get the righties out consistently enough. He will be passed by a half-dozen other pitchers by the time he would get a half-dozen MAYBE starts in the majors. But he could be a darkhorse bullpen candidate.

 

[Thrylos]

I'd take Pat Dean and Matt Batts over Rogers as far as LHSP who could be swingmen go,  and the 2 lefties at Cedar Rapids (and maybe Corey Williams who is back at it after TJ surgery) Boozer and Theophanopoulos, as far as LHRPs go.   Gonsalves is the only LHSP in the system with non-bottom of the rotation starter potential.

 

That will change as soon as they sign Tyrel Jay who I'd place on top of the organization's LHRPs chart at any level (Sorry Mr Perkins) and would reserve to see whether he has any starting potential.

 

That is the guy who can help the Twins in the pen this season, so, I'd say that he is the #1 LHRP option going forward

[jokin]

I'd take Pat Dean and Matt Batts over Rogers as far as LHSP who could be swingmen go,  and the 2 lefties at Cedar Rapids (and maybe Corey Williams who is back at it after TJ surgery) Boozer and Theophanopoulos, as far as LHRPs go.   Gonsalves is the only LHSP in the system with non-bottom of the rotation starter potential.

 

That will change as soon as they sign Tyrel Jay who I'd place on top of the organization's LHRPs chart at any level (Sorry Mr Perkins) and would reserve to see whether he has any starting potential.

 

That is the guy who can help the Twins in the pen this season, so, I'd say that he is the #1 LHRP option going forward

For all intents and purposes, on draft day Deron Johnson made it sound like Jay would definitely be undergoing the long process of attempted conversion to a starter. And Terry is definitely not a big fan of the Finnegan Fast Track method for pit?hing prospects, so isn't it unlikely that he'll give him a shot this year in the pen? The other four you mention under Ryan's developmental gameplan are likely quite a long ways off from helping. (Pat Dean's splits are uninspiring).

 

Given all of that track record.. It sure seems like Rogers could be the best option now- and he seems like he'll be a wasted asset sitting in AAA for the next 3 years.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Let's get rid of the bickering please.  This could be a very good thread, let's keep the topic to that.

[jokin]

I haven't seen him pitch yet but will (hopefully if in the rotation) when the Red Wings make their annual trip to Gwinnet GA but I thought I read that his FB sits around 92 to 93 during starts, maybe I'm wrong and thinking of Brett Lee. Isn't he also a fellow U of KY graduate (Twins have so many of them) That's nice velocity for a lefty starter and probably would tick higher in relief. Also, that Prospect page needs to update his file, as to when drafted.

Please remember to post back here if you get the chance to see him, Twinssouth! Anxious to get a first-hand report.

[Mike Sixel]

No one in CR is helping this year......so that doesn't really help anytime soon. Yet, this guy clearly has a chance to be better than Duensing right now. They are wasting him as a starter. It is a simple numbers game.

[stringer bell]

A lefty specialist would be nice, but a left handed reliever who can pitch a couple clean innings a week would be even better. Maybe Rogers can be that guy, especially if he can pick up just a little zip on the heater. The questions on converting pitchers are always there--can he get ready quick? Can he pitch two days in a row and four or even five times in a week? How is he at holding runners? If the answers to those questions are positive, there's a chance for a good job in the majors. If the guy was only so-so vs. RH hitters, then he would need to be used properly.

[jokin]

Now the day-to-day scribes are picking up on the possibility of Rogers as the LHRP answer in the Twins major league pen.  Here's Mike Berardino, possibly working off of a nudge from a Twins insider?  Better late to the party than never:

 

 

 

 

As Twins situational lefties continue to struggle of late, this was an interesting look at how Triple-A Rochester left-hander Taylor Rogers has dominated same-sided batters throughout his career.

Rogers has made all but seven of his career professional outings as a starter, but he also got some relief work in the Arizona Fall League after taking a comebacker off his pitching wrist.

Rogers, in fact, worked a scoreless inning of relief for Salt River in the AFL championship game.

It will be interesting to see if the Twins give Rogers a look out of the bullpen as they scour the trade market for situational relief help.

 

 

[jokin]

Aaron Thompson has fast faded from any potential usefulness as a LHRP.

June stats:

K/9 2.70

BB/9 5.40

BA .333

WHIP 2.10

xFIP 6.18

Strand 35.7%

 

Brian Duensing June stats show he's actually improved from April & May, but still awful:

 

K/9 5.87

BB/9 4.70

xFIP 4.30

Strand 54.6%

 

 

Time to give someone else a shot.  Rogers AAA numbers for June:

 

K/9 5.40

BB/9 0.83

WHIP 1.06

FIP 2.88

Strand 74.5%

 

Of course, although his overall peripherals have faded a bit, his numbers against LHB have remained ridiculously dominant.

http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/2014/11/11/images/mlbf_36913669_th_45.jpg

[drjim]

When it gets to the beat writers it almost always comes from a nudge from an inside source. Though Mike B has been known to engage in some unfounded speculation from time to time.