Time to Worry about Kohl Stewart?

[Boone]

Stewart is still displaying good control (7.5% BB rate), although it is a slight regression from last year (6.7% BB rate).  He is also a ground ball machine, as displayed by his 2.08 GO/FO ratio, even better than last year's 1.8 GO/FO.

 

However, Stewart is really struggling to strike hitters out: he has struck out just 10.8% of opposing hitters, far worse than his mediocre rate 17.2% last year.  To put this in perspective, his strikeout rate is the 3rd worst in the Florida State League among qualified starters.

 

For an elite prospect who was billed as having power stuff coming out of high school, this is a little worrisome.  Was his stuff never as good as advertised?  Is there a lingering injury that we don't know about?  How concerned should we be about his future?

[huhguy]

He is concerning

[nicksaviking]

Its been concerning since last year.

 

I'm sure it's not because of some kind of mandate, but Gibson and Pelfrey also have good velocity, a high groundball rate and poor strikeout numbers. I do wonder if there is some organizational instruction that plays a part in the franchise's inability to miss bats.

[Rosterman]

He's still young and adjusting. Give him a bit more time.

[goulik]

People, let's be a little less obsessed with speed of the fastball when talking about strike outs. MLB hitters can hit a 99, 100, 101 MPH fastball that's grooved. Location, changing speed, movement, and unpredictability lead to strikeouts. A good fastball can help for sure but it is not the key factor.

My questions would be, what is he working on, how much progress is he making on that, and what's next? Worried? A little yes, but we drafted a HS prospect pitcher. How old is he? Ok, were still fine...

[nicksaviking]

He's still young and adjusting. Give him a bit more time.

Strikeout numbers don't generally increase as players age or move up levels.

 

Unless the organization is doing something unorthodox with him, I think what we see now is what we should expect going forward.

[gunnarthor]

I posted this in a different thread but basically Stewart is really raw.  As a TX football star, he only worked on baseball 3 or 4 months a year but was still the best prep arm in his draft class.  Keith Law said in a chat that he was more a thrower than a pitcher when drafted and that the Twins were doing a hell of a job with him and not to worry about the strike outs.  He said that earlier this year. 

 

So, for now, I think we should look more at scouting reports than stats on him and hope he stays healthy.

[twinsbaby]

Pitchers can boost the velocity in the future, not the K%. If someone still believe him is a prospect, not a suspect. Give me a example for a pitcher who couldn't strike people outs in the Minors, then boosted his strikeouts rate in ML.

 

Also, he didn't have the same velocity as he did in the high school. Right now, he sits 90-93 mph. Slider can't fool anyone. Poor command. We need to give up and trade him right now.

[jimbo92107]

I'm not worried about Kohl Stewart. He's just spent the last couple years developing better control and technique for his pitches. Now comes the hardest part - learning the art of deception. Now he's got to learn to mask his delivery, release every pitch from the same release point, and change speeds without tipping off the batter. All that, plus he's got to hit the catcher's mitt wherever it is around the zone.

 

It may take Stewart a couple more years to hone his stuff, but that's okay - he's still just 20 years old. If we see him in a Twins uniform by 2017 or 2018, that would be perfect. Hopefully he can join Berrios and Meyer in one of the best starting rotations in baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

Not going to worry unless it looks like this next year. He was super raw.

[nicksaviking]

 

Also, he didn't have the same velocity as he did in the high school. Right now, he sits 90-93 mph.

Looking at YouTube videos, it sure looks like he hardly has any stride in the clips I saw of him at CR and Ft Myers. His HS videos didn't show a huge stride, but it was definitely longer than it is as a pro. Short strides certainly seems to be an organizational thing and often times a big killer of velocity.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He's got a 4.2 K/9 in high-A. (And only a 2.9 BB/9.)

 

Even accounting for age and experience, how many guys have done that and gone on to become top of the rotation MLB starters?

 

I was admittedly skeptical of the excuse last year that he was simply holding back on his best strikeout pitch, so needless to say, I find it even less persuasive in its second year as his results have gotten worse.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's not as if Stewart is the first raw pitcher ever drafted, or the first 18 year old draftee handled with kid gloves in the modern era.

[howieramone2]

 

Pitchers can boost the velocity in the future, not the K%. If someone still believe him is a prospect, not a suspect. Give me a example for a pitcher who couldn't strike people outs in the Minors, then boosted his strikeouts rate in ML.

 

Also, he didn't have the same velocity as he did in the high school. Right now, he sits 90-93 mph. Slider can't fool anyone. Poor command. We need to give up and trade him right now.

Nuke LaLosh

[nicksaviking]

Nuke LaLosh

I put Nukes lack of strikeouts on his catcher's misguided belief that being a Fascist is a bad thing to be on the mound.

[Bob Sacamento]

Wow lot of worried peeps over Kohl Stewart who is pitching at High A and won't turn 21 until after the season.  Don't be, he's looked good for being one of the youngest players in the league and his .337 BABIP shows that he's been unlucky thus far.  He's been working off and developing more his secondary (change and curveball) than just his fastball.  If he stays the entire season in Ft. Myers it's not a bad thing, consider this a learning season.  The K rate will go up from 4.17, just don't expect a 9 or be upset if at 21 he starts the 2016 season in High A either.

[Shane Wahl]

I don't understand how anyone wouldn't be concerned. This is straight up nowhere near elite pitching performance. His prospect stock has dropped significantly in my view. After last year, there were a lot of excuses being made for him. I bought those excuses, foolishly.

[cmb0252]

If only there were leagues below the majors where stats didn't matter and development is the most important thing for young players......

[Platoon]

Its been concerning since last year.

I'm sure it's not because of some kind of mandate, but Gibson and Pelfrey also have good velocity, a high groundball rate and poor strikeout numbers. I do wonder if there is some organizational instruction that plays a part in the franchise's inability to miss bats.

I have wondered about this, and the consistent lack of power hitters in the orginisation. I know it sounds like a conspiracy theory, but it's such a team trademark. No team purposely coaches pitchers not to strike out hitters, but we very rarely have a SO style pitcher.

[Sweetwater]

"I'm not worried"

 

 

Most people who smoke don't worry about cancer.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Looking at YouTube videos, it sure looks like he hardly has any stride in the clips I saw of him at CR and Ft Myers. His HS videos didn't show a huge stride, but it was definitely longer than it is as a pro. Short strides certainly seems to be an organizational thing and often times a big killer of velocity.

From what I've seen the organization is big on lesser strides with runners on as it keeps runners close.  Interesting you mention that about stride as I heard one of the pitching coaches going over with Josh Guyer on his stride, they did NOT like me recording this, I even had one of the Twins pitchers trying to get me to stop watching.

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I have wondered about this, and the consistent lack of power hitters in the orginisation. I know it sounds like a conspiracy theory, but it's such a team trademark. No team purposely coaches pitchers not to strike out hitters, but we very rarely have a SO style pitcher.

I'm not going to say it's a conspiracy but rather a concentrated philosophy that you can see from the ground floor of the developmental departmentl.  From what I've seen, the pitchers are taught to pitch more to contact and the hitters are taught to sacrafice power for contact.

 

What the Twins seem to strive for for example: If you strikeout a batter that's great but better to get two ground outs with the same 6 pitches.  Or that homerun was great with two strikeouts but the opposite field doubles with a walk were even better.

[drivlikejehu]

 

If only there were leagues below the majors where stats didn't matter and development is the most important thing for young players......

 

This isn't responsive to the concerns. Development is the most important thing for all young pitchers in the minor leagues. Yet these other young pitchers, many of whom supposedly have far inferior stuff to Stewart, get far more hitters to swing and miss. Even Stewart's fastball velocity alone should be enough to get the ball by lesser A-ball hitters.

 

Some of it probably has to do with his arm health, or lack thereof, but that doesn't make me feel much better. 

[twinsbaby]

What? PITCH MORE CONTACT?

 

Kohl Stewart was unlucky? This was advanced stats: SIERA 4.70

His .339 BABIP boosted becaused his LD% also increased. That was why his H/9 was 10.51.

 

Hitters hit DP was unlucky, so pitchers got DP was lucky. Stewart gets 7 DPs fewer than 50 innings this year, he is a incredibly lucky pitcher.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

What? PITCH MORE CONTACT?

 

Kohl Stewart was unlucky? This was advanced stats: SIERA 4.70

His .339 BABIP boosted becaused his LD% also increased. That was why his H/9 was 10.51.

Can you tell me where you found the SIERA stat? Kohl is my adopt-a-prospect and I'd like to look at all available data for my write-ups. Is it behind the paywall on Fangraphs? Or am I just missing something obvious? Thanks.

[gunnarthor]

 

Can you tell me where you found the SIERA stat? Kohl is my adopt-a-prospect and I'd like to look at all available data for my write-ups. Is it behind the paywall on Fangraphs? Or am I just missing something obvious? Thanks.

Don't worry about stats like SIERRA or fip in the low minors.  Klaw said they aren't trustworthy at that competition level.

[Shane Wahl]

 

If only there were leagues below the majors where stats didn't matter and development is the most important thing for young players......

 

"Stats don't matter" makes it seem like they don't indicate in any way how a player is developing. Gross false dichotomy.

 

I am actually alarmed by those saying they aren't alarmed! Stewart looks to me like a poor man's Kyle Gibson and wouldn't be in my top 10 prospects right now.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Don't worry about stats like SIERRA or fip in the low minors.  Klaw said they aren't trustworthy at that competition level.

I am less worried about that stat than I am interested in reviewing all available information. The sites I review now do not show me SIERRA so I was hoping to learn which site does. Any help would be appreciated.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

I think he is dealing with elbow issues based on a conversation I overheard involving who I believe were his parents at the Twins-Rangers game on Friday night. I am going to start another post to discuss my eavesdropping and to see if other Twins fans would have been annoyed like I was.

 

If he is dealing with elbow issues, I don't understand why he is even pithing or hasn't opted for surgery yet. Surgery is never good, but prolonging it is even worse. Not too many cases of opting not to have the surgery working out for the better longterm. Maybe be a handful, but the vast majority end up having it done. Why waste time.

 

I almost hope he has to have TJ, as bad as that sounds. At least that could justify his performance and maybe give us hope that he could regain his velocity and stuff. I could care less what Keith Law has said about him. My guess is that all the write-ups about him will not be on the positive side next year. 

 

Wonder if the kid actually might have developed better as a QB, and have a better pro future. Stating that we should ignore the overwhelming data, and to just trust the Twins developers are doing a great job with him would seem to be a little naive. Still hoping that he is holding back or being held back, but I don't see this working out well, IMO. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think he is dealing with elbow issues based on a conversation I overheard involving who I believe were his parents at the Twins-Rangers game on Friday night. I am going to start another post to discuss my eavesdropping and to see if other Twins fans would have been annoyed like I was.

He already hit the DL earlier this year for "elbow inflammation" so that's not surprising:

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/04/23/twinsights-pitching-prospect-kohl-stewart-elbow-lands-on-disabled-list/

 

His 2014 also basically ended in July due to a "shoulder impingement" (although he did return for 5.1 innings over 2 starts in August):

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140725&content_id=86250298&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

 

Given that, I would be surprised if there wasn't a health and/or performance issue that he has yet to overcome.