Time to Worry about Kohl Stewart?

[GACbaseball]

From what I've seen the organization is big on lesser strides with runners on as it keeps runners close.

This is a pretty concerning organizational philosophy... shortening your stride makes you use your legs less which results in using your elbow/shoulder a lot more. Basically it could produce more arm injuries while making our pitchers throw slower.

 

I understand that holding runners on is important but it's concerning to me that we sacrifice pitching ability for something small like that. How about we keep the stride length long to stop having so many baserunners in the first place?

[drjim]

If Stewart was pitching at Cedar Rapids and had a k/9 rate of around 8 would anyone be worried? He would still be relatively age appropriate. Perhaps I'm most surprised that they have pushed him this aggressively especially if he is as raw as some of the reports think he is.

[markos]

 

If Stewart was pitching at Cedar Rapids and had a k/9 rate of around 8 would anyone be worried? He would still be relatively age appropriate. Perhaps I'm most surprised that they have pushed him this aggressively especially if he is as raw as some of the reports think he is.

It depends on the context. Looking at Stewart as a generic HS pitcher, he is doing fine right now (also fine in your scenario where he is in Cedar Rapids). So in that context, he is still a good, fairly exciting prospect. However, Stewart isn't a generic HS pitcher - he was the #4 pick in the draft. Elite HS pitchers drafted that high should be dominating these low levels. The vast majority of top drafted HS pitchers ended up forcing a promotion to at least AA by their second full season. That doesn't seem likely with Stewart. So in this context, there is plenty of reason to worry. 

[drjim]

 

It depends on the context. Looking at Stewart as a generic HS pitcher, he is doing fine right now (also fine in your scenario where he is in Cedar Rapids). So in that context, he is still a good, fairly exciting prospect. However, Stewart isn't a generic HS pitcher - he was the #4 pick in the draft. Elite HS pitchers drafted that high should be dominating these low levels. The vast majority of top drafted HS pitchers ended up forcing a promotion to at least AA by their second full season. That doesn't seem likely with Stewart. So in this context, there is plenty of reason to worry. 

 

Oh, I'm worried about him.

 

I'm just a little surprised that he is pitching this young at High A with such poor k numbers. I think something is going on that we can't see. Even highly drafted high school arms can spend more time in Low A than we might think, especially if they have had some of the injury issues Stewart has battled.

[DaveW]

Not worried, he was super super raw when they drafted him. Come 2017 and he hasn't shown improvement then I will be concerned.

[h2oface]

Since last  year. Usually, folks that are going to be good, are good at every level. Kohl Stewart may be an exception, but people love to hype him. I chuckle every time I see him high on a prospect list. I never see the advantage in raw and young and not ready to help within 2 or 3 years. He is in good company with other number ones, Levi Michael & Alex Whimmers.

[clutterheart]

I chuckle every time I see him high on a prospect list.

That's silly.

 

Scouts like his pitches, athletic talent & potential so he has a high ranking. At some point he has to produce but for now at least he is being ranked based off impressive scouting reports

[diehardtwinsfan]

I know it's apples to oranges, but the Twins had this kid in their system named Trevor Plouffe. He never really stood out as he moved up the ladder, but was always very young for his age and held his own. He broke out much later in life. Granted, he wasn't the 4th overall player, but you are talking about a kid who cannot yet legally drink and is already pitching in high A. I get the K rate concern, I have it too, but he's also being moved quickly. I agree that if the Ks don't come, his stock falls pretty hard, it's already dropped a bit in my book as it is, but I don't think we need to worry just yet. Despite the lack of Ks, he's not exactly getting hit hard either. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I know it's apples to oranges, but the Twins had this kid in their system named Trevor Plouffe. He never really stood out as he moved up the ladder, but was always very young for his age and held his own. He broke out much later in life. Granted, he wasn't the 4th overall player, but you are talking about a kid who cannot yet legally drink and is already pitching in high A. I get the K rate concern, I have it too, but he's also being moved quickly. I agree that if the Ks don't come, his stock falls pretty hard, it's already dropped a bit in my book as it is, but I don't think we need to worry just yet. Despite the lack of Ks, he's not exactly getting hit hard either. 

 

I get the call to calm down, he is getting guys out and could turn out to be a useable pitcher

 

However useable pitchers aren't hard to find, and without the strikeouts he's not going to be an ace.  Even if it's irrational, for me it was, and probably will always be ace or bust at the #4 pick. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Where would he go if the 2013 draft was re-held today?  Looks like he already dropped out of Baseball America's and John Sickel's top 100 lists this past offseason.  He gained position on the MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus lists, but I suspect that could be fading with his early season results.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think we need to worry just yet. Despite the lack of Ks, he's not exactly getting hit hard either. 

Worrying doesn't mean giving up on the guy or anything crazy.  It's just plain old worrying, which I think is appropriate in this case given the data. (And it's not just performance worry, it could also be a health worry.)

 

If Buxton was performing like Ben Revere two years after being drafted, I think it would have been fair to worry about him too.

[drjim]

 

Where would he go if the 2013 draft was re-held today?  Looks like he already dropped out of Baseball America's and John Sickel's top 100 lists this past offseason.  He gained position on the MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus lists, but I suspect that could be fading with his early season results.

 

Hard to say. It is obviously early but aside from Bryant little of that draft has blown up, including the two college pitchers that went ahead of him. JP Crawford for sure, maybe Aaron Judge, otherwise lots of questions.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

That's silly.

Scouts like his pitches, athletic talent & potential so he has a high ranking. At some point he has to produce but for now at least he is being ranked based off impressive scouting reports

 

Where would he go if the 2013 draft was re-held today?  Looks like he already dropped out of Baseball America's and John Sickel's top 100 lists this past offseason.  He gained position on the MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus lists, but I suspect that could be fading with his early season results.

I do find it ironic, many Twins fans that are complaining of taking Tyler Jay who arguably has the highest floor (lower ceiling) of anyone taken in the 2015 draft and instead wanted someone with the highest ceiling (and low floor).  Well the Twins did that in 2013 draft and everyone is moaning on how far Kohl (one of high ceiling, low floors) has progressed thus far.

 

Going into the 2013 draft, he was regarded as the best high school pitcher, but he was more of a thrower than pitcher but had projectability  The two pitchers taken before him Jon Gray and Mark Appel aren't exactly lightening it up either and were college stars.  It's funny Twins fans are complaining about Stewart just the same time as Red Sox fans are complaining about Trey Ball who was a 2 sport HS player and taken three picks later.  Both pitchers are where one should be if not a level up of where they should be.  Progress takes time for high school pitchers and fans should not jump off the bandwagon as soon as a bump in the road is hit.

 

 

This was said of Stewart at the draft, "Stewart's pure stuff is as good as theirs (appel and Gray), and he's more athletic than they are." Scouts love the 6-foot-3, 190-pounder's arsenal, athleticism and competitiveness. They say that he has better present stuff than Jameson Taillon did when the Pirates took [him]". 

 

Now fast foward to this offseason, "plagued by late-season shoulder issues in both 2013 and 2014. In the latter season, Stewart topped out near 75 pitches per start and logged just five innings after July 17 after coming down with shoulder inflammation and losing velocity. Blessed with a strong, athletic frame and a clean delivery he repeats with ease....His other two pitches (curve and change) project to at least average but could still use some work. His curveball shows 12-to-6 action at its best, while his changeup remains inconsistent but has shown good sink and tumble. Perhaps because hitters could eliminate two pitches on many nights, Stewart's strikeout rate was of 6.4 per nine innings was well off the pace for top Midwest League starters."

 

 

[Hrbowski]

 

Pitchers can boost the velocity in the future, not the K%. If someone still believe him is a prospect, not a suspect. Give me a example for a pitcher who couldn't strike people outs in the Minors, then boosted his strikeouts rate in ML.

 

Also, he didn't have the same velocity as he did in the high school. Right now, he sits 90-93 mph. Slider can't fool anyone. Poor command. We need to give up and trade him right now.

That is not true at all. Terry Ryan said that he has hit 95 several times this year, and that his slider has been getting weak contact, he also does not have poor command. When you draft someone like Stewart you know he is going to be a project, and you don't give up right after you start it, so your reasoning for wanting to give up and trade him now is pathetic. You obviously don't know what you are talking about.

[Hrbowski]

 

Where would he go if the 2013 draft was re-held today?  Looks like he already dropped out of Baseball America's and John Sickel's top 100 lists this past offseason.  He gained position on the MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus lists, but I suspect that could be fading with his early season results.

#4, to the Twins. No matter who we had taken from what was available people would have been throwing fits, so it seems that going high upside was the best choice.

[DaveW]

 

#4, to the Twins. No matter who we had taken from what was available people would have been throwing fits, so it seems that going high upside was the best choice.

Actually he may go #2 if they reheld that draft today. Gray and Appel (both 3 years older then Stewart) are both putting up worse numbers then Stewart anyways.

[drivlikejehu]

 

That is not true at all. Terry Ryan said that he has hit 95 several times this year, and that his slider has been getting weak contact, he also does not have poor command. When you draft someone like Stewart you know he is going to be a project, and you don't give up right after you start it, so your reasoning for wanting to give up and trade him now is pathetic. You obviously don't know what you are talking about.

 

If he doesn't have poor command, then his stuff is bad. You can't have it both ways. For some reason, he's getting no strikeouts... either the pitches themselves are easy to hit, or the location is bad, or both. If everything was great his results would show it.

[nicksaviking]

I do find it ironic, many Twins fans that are complaining of taking Tyler Jay who arguably has the highest floor (lower ceiling) of anyone taken in the 2015 draft and instead wanted someone with the highest ceiling (and low floor).  Well the Twins did that in 2013 draft and everyone is moaning on how far Kohl (one of high ceiling, low floors) has progressed thus far.

 

I want the high ceiling and care little about the floor. With that comes the complete understanding that these guys may bust. Stewart was my choice after the big three were off the board and I don't fault the front office for taking him and I don't know that I've seen anyone posting like they do. I haven't given up on him completely, but I wouldn't want the club making future decisions on him simply because he was a #4 pick.

[nicksaviking]

If he doesn't have poor command, then his stuff is bad. You can't have it both ways. For some reason, he's getting no strikeouts... either the pitches themselves are easy to hit, or the location is bad, or both. If everything was great his results would show it.

The team took his stride to the plate away. Not only is that bad for the upper body as previously discussed by smarter posters than I, but it decreases velocity, and one would have to think with the ball being released out of his hand earlier, it is easier to pick up for the batter.