Joe Mauer - Final Line

[Bark's Lounge]

To start this topic it out, I first want to say that I am a fan of Joe Mauer and I desperately want him to be successful on the baseball diamond. He had a handful of great years and I felt privileged to be able to watch him play the game.

 

Over the last 1.5 years, it appears Joe has lost his mojo. His decline has been very concerning. Starting tomorrow, I hope he goes on a tear and hits .400 the rest of the year, I also hope that I hit the Powerball numbers on Saturday. Hope and reality, unfortunately, are on separate sides of the coin.

 

My question is this: What do you folks think his final offensive stat line will be at the conclusion of this season?

 

I certainly am not starting this topic to create chaos or for people to negatively vent, but I am curious to see what the predictions will be. Maybe they will give me a jolt of optimism, maybe they will make me feel worse about this subject than I already do now. The price of curiosity is always a wild card.

 

My prediction:

 

.289 BA, 7 HRs, .755 OPS

[blairpaul715]

 

To start this topic it out, I first want to say that I am a fan of Joe Mauer and I desperately want him to be successful on the baseball diamond. He had a handful of great years and I felt privileged to be able to watch him play the game.

 

Over the last 1.5 years, it appears Joe has lost his mojo. His decline has been very concerning. Starting tomorrow, I hope he goes on a tear and hits .400 the rest of the year, I also hope that I hit the Powerball numbers on Saturday. Hope and reality, unfortunately, are on separate sides of the coin.

 

My question is this: What do you folks think his final offensive stat line will be at the conclusion of this season?

 

I certainly am not starting this topic to create chaos or for people to negatively vent, but I am curious to see what the predictions will be. Maybe they will give me a jolt of optimism, maybe they will make me feel worse about this subject than I already do now. The price of curiosity is always a wild card.

 

My prediction:

 

.289 BA, 7 HRs, .755 OPS

Pretty close to what I think also.

[curt1965]

I agree, Bark. I, too, am a Mauer fan, and have been in his corner when the doubters have been unrelenting.

I really have no clue what to predict! I've never seen him as clueless at the plate as he is now. Usually most of his outs have been hit hard at someone. That hasn't been the case in the last month. He has been somewhat successful with RISP, but even that is misleading. I can't remember his last line drive hit.

I am hoping Mollie tries him lower in the batting order-maybe at 6, to get him going. I know that leaves a big hole at 3. I would like them to try Rosario there, against right handers in particular.

I'm not as hopeful as you:

 

.279, 5 HR's, .725 OPS.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

I'm not optimistic. Like Bark, I am a long-time fan of Joe's and want him to succeed, but he's in the discussion for being the worst 1B in MLB so far this season (ranks 23rd of 25 qualifying 1B in OPS, WAR, RC/27), and has been brutal over the past 6 weeks (.224/.273/.321 in May and June).

 

I don't know what the answer is, but he needs some kind of lightbulb moment soon.  Maybe someone like Parker can highlight something in his swing or approach that is contributing to this slump.

 

Even if he suddenly went back to being a reasonable approximation of his former self and hit .300/.370/.430 for the rest of the year, that would translate to a final line of .285/.350/.400.  That feels like a best case scenario to me right now.

[mickeymental]

just seems like his problems must be related to concussions. if so, all bets are off until and unless he recovers.

[Monkeypaws]

Seeing Justin go down again re-emphasizes Mickey's point. He certainly has lost something since.

[Twinsoholic]

Because concussions have always been a part of the grand game of baseball, it would be interesting to see if there is a comparison of Mauer with some stars from the 1970s or 1980s whose careers were reshaped by a concussion. Does anyone come to mind? Surely this had to happen, unfortunately, to some other outstanding players. There are examples, of course, of players being hit in the face with pitches and not being the same hitters they were, but what other players had concussions? Also, catchers in the 1970s and 1980s certainly experienced what Mauer did while he was catching. If anyone knows of any comparable players--players who had significant drop offs in their production following concussions--I would welcome hearing about them.

[mickeymental]

Because concussions have always been a part of the grand game of baseball, it would be interesting to see if there is a comparison of Mauer with some stars from the 1970s or 1980s whose careers were reshaped by a concussion. Does anyone come to mind? Surely this had to happen, unfortunately, to some other outstanding players. There are examples, of course, of players being hit in the face with pitches and not being the same hitters they were, but what other players had concussions? Also, catchers in the 1970s and 1980s certainly experienced what Mauer did while he was catching. If anyone knows of any comparable players--players who had significant drop offs in their production following concussions--I would welcome hearing about them.

back in the '60s and '70s, schoolboy football players who "got their bell rung" were back in the game asap. i can recall guys staggering around and not knowing what day it was ... coaches and other players thought it was funny -- but if you didn't get back in the game you were considered soft. likewise, i'd guess professional athletes of the not-too-distant past hid their symptoms and got back in the game asap. and that accurate records of concussions and their aftermath are scant.

[Halsey Hall]

I have doubt's it related to the concussions, but he is really off his game.   He looks just tired of it all. 

[Mike Sixel]

Bottom 5 first baseman, whatever that line looks like. Maybe worse. You have to consider benching him later this year, imo. And I loved watching him hit. Very sad.

[mickeymental]

I have doubt's it related to the concussions, but he is really off his game.   He looks just tired of it all.

 

i wonder what your doubts are based on. in other words, how can a guy go from a hall-of-fame-bound hitter to subpar just by being "tired of it all"? he's been a successful athlete in several sports all his life -- i imagine he's frustrated yet driven to reclaim his place near the top. but tired of it all? at 32? i don't see him as the type who's eager to put up his feet and count his millions ...

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Two questions:

1. Would you trade Joe Mauer for Ryan Howard straight up (noting their respective contracts)?

2. Did it depress the hell out of you that answering question1 took more than a nanosecond?

[Eris]

 

 If anyone knows of any comparable players--players who had significant drop offs in their production following concussions--I would welcome hearing about them.

I am not sure about comparable, but the earliest case that I recall reading about was that of Pete Reiser (Brooklyn Dodgers).  You can read about him here http://www.thisgreatgame.com/1942-baseball-history.html (about 2/3 of the way down the page).  Corie Koskie never played again following his 2006 concussion.  We are all familiar with Justin Morneau's struggles and this might be the best comparison to Joe Mauer's current situation.  Although this comparison is rudimentary, Morneau's BA dropped from about 0.320 to about 0.260 (20% decline) and SLG fell from slightly greater than 500 to 440 (slightly more than a 10% decline).  Mauer's loss in production is very similar, his BA has dropped from about slightly more than 0.320 to 0.260 (about 20%) and his slugging has fallen from 470 to about 360 (slightly more than 20%).  One aspect to keep in mind is that Joe Mauer played football in high school and it is possible that he experienced concussions predating his years with the Twins and this could effect the severity of any additional concussions.  The impact of any of this is unknown, but what we know is that after his concussion the Twins moved quickly to get him out from behind the plate and that his hitting skills declined significantly.

[Bark's Lounge]

Stay on the point of the original spirit of the topic my friends.

 

I don't want this to turn into a concussion based thread about Mauer. We all are aware of this and it's not breaking news.

 

To me, a concussion is an injury just the same as a torn ACL, a torn UCL, a severely broken bone, or torn rotator cuff. **** happens. They all are very unfortunate.

 

I'd like to see what poster's final Joe Mauer lines look like this season.

[nicksaviking]

I simply think we all got accustomed to the steroid era. Guys peaking in their mid to late 20's shouldn't be surprising. It's what used to be the norm. Frank Robinson famously was traded to the Orioles because at 30 the Reds thought he was getting toward the end of the line. It is a well known anecdote not only because the Reds were wrong, but because Frank defied expectations.

 

Most of the great HOFers peaked in their 20's and were able to ride out their careers with much less spectacular numbers, and while some were still great hitters, most rode it out by still being a power threat. Guys with some power can still be useful even once their reactions slow and their bodies break down. Joe doesn't have power. When his reactions slow and body ages, he has little else to fall back on. Joe looks very much like this eras Don Mattingly, a guy who everyone said was a sure fire HOFer until he reached his 30's.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

I simply think we all got accustomed to the steroid era. Guys peaking in their mid to late 20's shouldn't be surprising. It's what used to be the norm. Frank Robinson famously was traded to the Orioles because at 30 the Reds thought he was getting toward the end of the line. It is a well known anecdote not only because the Reds were wrong, but because Frank defied expectations.

Most of the great HOFers peaked in their 20's and were able to ride out their careers with much less spectacular numbers, and while some were still great hitters, most rode it out by still being a power threat. Guys with some power can still be useful even once their reactions slow and their bodies break down. Joe doesn't have power. When his reactions slow and body ages, he has little else to fall back on. Joe looks very much like this eras Don Mattingly, a guy who everyone said was a sure fire HOFer until he reached his 30's.

Great comp.

[Jham]

.262, 5 HR, 707 OPS

Excuses will start to pile up.  People will surmise he's not healthy.  Pretty soon the doctors will in fact diagnose an injury that had been bothering him since, oh we'll say spring training.  He'll have some minor arthroscopic wrist surgery or something, and he'll be out for the season in mid-August but could possibly be ready for the playoffs if we're still in the hunt.

[NoCal]

I like the Mattingly comp. Also, Joe Sheehan wrote a great article about Mauer this week in his newsletter. He points out that two major trends in baseball recently have worked against Mauer's strengths. Namely, the use of extreme shifts, and more importantly, the expansion of the strike zone, especially the low strike - now well below the knees, and often an inch or two off the plate. Mauer's greatest strengths have been his great eye and ability to differentiate between balls and strikes, and his tendency to go off field. The new game featuring low strikes and lots of power pitching, and reams of information, has blunted Joe's game. Maybe it is only partially due to concussions. If he can adjust to the new game, his line can improve - but still not much power. Maybe .290 / .340 / and some low power number.

[mickeymental]

I simply think we all got accustomed to the steroid era. Guys peaking in their mid to late 20's shouldn't be surprising. It's what used to be the norm. Frank Robinson famously was traded to the Orioles because at 30 the Reds thought he was getting toward the end of the line. It is a well known anecdote not only because the Reds were wrong, but because Frank defied expectations.

Most of the great HOFers peaked in their 20's and were able to ride out their careers with much less spectacular numbers, and while some were still great hitters, most rode it out by still being a power threat. Guys with some power can still be useful even once their reactions slow and their bodies break down. Joe doesn't have power. When his reactions slow and body ages, he has little else to fall back on. Joe looks very much like this eras Don Mattingly, a guy who everyone said was a sure fire HOFer until he reached his 30's.

mattingly's decline is widely attributed to chronic back problems -- not simply because he "reached his 30s."

[Seth Stohs]

 

Because concussions have always been a part of the grand game of baseball, it would be interesting to see if there is a comparison of Mauer with some stars from the 1970s or 1980s whose careers were reshaped by a concussion. Does anyone come to mind? Surely this had to happen, unfortunately, to some other outstanding players. There are examples, of course, of players being hit in the face with pitches and not being the same hitters they were, but what other players had concussions? Also, catchers in the 1970s and 1980s certainly experienced what Mauer did while he was catching. If anyone knows of any comparable players--players who had significant drop offs in their production following concussions--I would welcome hearing about them.

 

Just look at the catcher position. I'm sure there are many examples. There's a reason that there are very, very few MLB catchers that hit over .300 after they turn 30. And yeah, you can say that he's not a catcher anymore, but those miles are still on his legs and his knees. 

 

I agree that it initially was concussion related, and it may still be in some ways. The bat speed just isn't consistently there any more. Once in a while.

 

I think he can be a .275/.345/400 type. 

 

My question is: Did people think that Mauer would maintain what he was for about 7-8 years through age 36?

[Seth Stohs]

 

I like the Mattingly comp. Also, Joe Sheehan wrote a great article about Mauer this week in his newsletter. He points out that two major trends in baseball recently have worked against Mauer's strengths. Namely, the use of extreme shifts, and more importantly, the expansion of the strike zone, especially the low strike - now well below the knees, and often an inch or two off the plate. Mauer's greatest strengths have been his great eye and ability to differentiate between balls and strikes, and his tendency to go off field. The new game featuring low strikes and lots of power pitching, and reams of information, has blunted Joe's game. Maybe it is only partially due to concussions. If he can adjust to the new game, his line can improve - but still not much power. Maybe .290 / .340 / and some low power number.

 

THese both are HUGE points.

[nicksaviking]

mattingly's decline is widely attributed to chronic back problems -- not simply because he "reached his 30s."

Right, but almost certainly due to the everyday wear and tear an athlete suffers. The body won't last, your name sake is a testament to that. Mick had to retire at 36.

[mickeymental]

Right, but almost certainly due to the everyday wear and tear an athlete suffers. The body won't last, your name sake is a testament to that. Mick had to retire at 36.

mantle mangled his knee early in his career (long before today's miracle surgery) and drank himself into premature decline (famously saying "if i knew i was gonna live this long i woulda took a lot better care of myself"); mattingly is said to have wrecked his back in a bout of clubhouse horseplay.

[mickeymental]

 

I like the Mattingly comp. Also, Joe Sheehan wrote a great article about Mauer this week in his newsletter. He points out that two major trends in baseball recently have worked against Mauer's strengths. Namely, the use of extreme shifts, and more importantly, the expansion of the strike zone, especially the low strike - now well below the knees, and often an inch or two off the plate. Mauer's greatest strengths have been his great eye and ability to differentiate between balls and strikes, and his tendency to go off field. The new game featuring low strikes and lots of power pitching, and reams of information, has blunted Joe's game. Maybe it is only partially due to concussions. If he can adjust to the new game, his line can improve - but still not much power. Maybe .290 / .340 / and some low power number.

 

 

strong theories (aside from the specious mattingly comparison as addressed above).

[Boom Boom]

.265/.330/.370.

 

Whether you want to blame injuries, changes to the strike zone, or defensive shifts, Mauer just isn't the same hitter he used to be. No one is saying he should be arrested for that, but if he doesn't turn things around in a big way soon, Joe will be a major drag on this team's future. I don't think it's unrealistic to say that Sano or even Vargas will be a much better first base option in the near future and that Mauer's previous successes and local hero status shouldn't protect him from being squeezed out if it makes the Twins a better baseball team.

[D. Hocking]

 

 If he can adjust to the new game, his line can improve - but still not much power. Maybe .290 / .340 / and some low power number.

 

Bruno was on 1500 yesterday and said he has been working a lot with Joe trying to make some changes.  He was asked why his hitting was so much better with RISP.   He said when there are runners on base he is more focused on just getting them in -- when there is no one on base he is trying new things and is not quite there with some of the techniques - he is kind of in an in-between stage with mastering these adjustments.  I would imagine spring training with pitchers not at the peak is not enough time to modify a hitting style you have done since age 14.  

 

I am thinking more and more that perhaps he is in a decline either due to  the concussion and/or being a large catcher for years that had a significant knee injury early on, but I will cling to the kool aid a little longer in hoping that at some point he will be able to make some adjustments and improve. 

[Linus]

I have no idea what the real problem is, probably a combination of everything that has already been noted.

 

Two things stand out to me: first is the outfield shift that is being employed against him.  It is almost not possible for him to hit a ball in the air against KC and get a hit.  Unless he can pull some balls in the air that is gonna plague him for a long while. 

 

Second: I've never seen Joe swing and miss so much.  When he was in his prime it seemed that he always made contact.  This combined with a changing strike zone equates to lots of strike outs for a guy that used to very tough to strike out.

[Jham]

 

Just look at the catcher position. I'm sure there are many examples. There's a reason that there are very, very few MLB catchers that hit over .300 after they turn 30. And yeah, you can say that he's not a catcher anymore, but those miles are still on his legs and his knees. 

 

I agree that it initially was concussion related, and it may still be in some ways. The bat speed just isn't consistently there any more. Once in a while.

 

I think he can be a .275/.345/400 type. 

 

My question is: Did people think that Mauer would maintain what he was for about 7-8 years through age 36?

 

The problem is we didn't sign Joe Mauer to be "the old Joe Mauer".  We signed him to be the 2009 MVP Joe Mauer.  He's given us no seasons like that since. Some thought he could maintain his 2009 MVP level of success for at least a few years.  Others thought he took a month off and juiced up for a contract.  Midway into his contract, we've given up on getting the 2009 Joe mauer, we would be more than satisfied with the old Joe Mauer, but instead we're just getting Old Joe Mauer.

 

The main thing is his bat speed has slowed down, not strike zones or shifts.  It's obvious because he can't hit the ball as far anymore.  His advantage of being able to watch the ball longer and let it get deep is gone.  He has trouble catching up to heat.  He has to start his swing earlier leaving him vulnerable to off speed.  And compounding that problem is the fact that he's trying to pull the ball more which is taking its toll on his swing and requires that he get the bat through even earlier which means even more guessing.  He should go back to driving the ball to left.  Barry Bonds never worried about the shift.  Ortiz never worried about it.  Ted Williams hit .400 against shifts.  He should then think about a lighter bat.

 

 

 

[Mike Frasier Law]

285/360/400.

 

I blame the twins (not the Twins). He probably just isn't sleeping because he has two baby girls at home.

[Mike Sixel]

No one thought he'd be the greatest hitter forever, Seth.....I don't think anyone did. But he's bad, not even decent, the last year plus......did anyone expect that?

 

The real important thing is, will the Twins make a hard decision or not?