Joe Mauer - Final Line

[Loosey]

 

I have doubt's it related to the concussions, but he is really off his game.   He looks just tired of it all. 

I like Mauer and always thought he was a great player.  That being said, at least externally to the fans (me), he seems like baseball was just a job to him.  He never seems to be really happy to be playing the game and if his career ended today it seems he wouldn't be that greatly upset.  I could be be greatly incorrect here as he has a very mellow personality that can come off as not caring when in reality he deeply cares. 

 

Maybe it is 4 years of losing, injuries, not catching anymore that he has lost interest.  Add in the fact that he had expectations to be the greatest player ever and didn't live up to that mainly due to not hitting for power and getting ripped for it.  It adds up and maybe has worn him down.

 

Which brings me to my next point.  If the Twins traded him, I think he would see a career resurrection because the expectations would diminish and would most likely not have to be the "face" of the franchise.

 

.280/.360/.375

 

Anyways I think I got off track on whatever point I was trying to make . ..  .Happy Friday!

[Vanimal46]

 

No one thought he'd be the greatest hitter forever, Seth.....I don't think anyone did. But he's bad, not even decent, the last year plus......did anyone expect that?

 

The real important thing is, will the Twins make a hard decision or not?

 

No chance that the Twins put the pressure on Joe and force him out. On the other hand, maybe Joe makes the decision himself to walk away.. It would be hard on anyone's ego if you were an elite hitter, and all of a sudden it's gone. Do I think he would walk away from $46 million remaining on his contract? Probably not.... I'm afraid we're going to have a $23 mill / year part time 1B and DH very soon.

 

EDIT: My prediction for final stat line is .270 5 HR .700 OPS

[nicksaviking]

I'm afraid we're going to have a $23 mill / year part time 1B and DH very soon.

That sounds pretty optimistic. The team is reluctant to pull him from the #3 hole, I'm not sure they could bring themselves to bench him, even if it would be best.

[Secondary User]

 

No one thought he'd be the greatest hitter forever, Seth.....I don't think anyone did. But he's bad, not even decent, the last year plus......did anyone expect that?

 

The real important thing is, will the Twins make a hard decision or not?

 

To be fair, even last year, he was a 106 OPS+.  He was still a bit better than league average.  I wouldn't call that bad except if you're comparing it against past Joe.  Certainly not what you'd hope to get for $23 million, but if we want to discuss how that $23 million came to be, the Twins were basically staring down the barrel.

 

His comparison to other 1B man only is meaningful if the Twins have other options at 1B that are better.  Vargas is really the only one right now (unless Sano skips AAA AND makes a position change or Plouffe moves over to 1B), and he hasn't showed himself to be great defensively, and his offensive game isn't there yet either (lower in all three triple slash categories than Mauer).

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

To be fair, even last year, he was a 106 OPS+.  He was still a bit better than league average.  I wouldn't call that bad except if you're comparing it against past Joe.

 

I was comparing him to 1B....but I guess 15th out of 23 1B last year (offense only part of WAR) isn't "bad", it's just not good either. The problem is, the delta between good and where he was is HUGE.  He was closer to negative WAR on offense than he was the 10th best 1B last year......

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That sounds pretty optimistic. The team is reluctant to pull him from the #3 hole, I'm not sure they could bring themselves to bench him, even if it would be best.

Yeah.  There's already a good case that he shouldn't be playing every day, but there he is, just behind Dozier in the games started column.  Easily on pace for career highs in games played and plate appearances in what is also easily his worst hitting season as a pro so far.

[Willihammer]

Mauer has some funny splits so far this year - .764 against LHPs and .629 against RHPs. You can probably look at those in a glass half full or empty way.

 

Final line prediction: .275/.335/.410.

[nicksaviking]

I was comparing him to 1B....but I guess 15th out of 23 1B last year (offense only part of WAR) isn't "bad", it's just not good either. The problem is, the delta between good and where he was is HUGE.  He was closer to negative WAR on offense than he was the 10th best 1B last year......

Yes. It would be different if he played a different position, but 1B could be used for a number of different players.

[laloesch]

 

I like Mauer and always thought he was a great player.  That being said, at least externally to the fans (me), he seems like baseball was just a job to him.  He never seems to be really happy to be playing the game and if his career ended today it seems he wouldn't be that greatly upset.  I could be be greatly incorrect here as he has a very mellow personality that can come off as not caring when in reality he deeply cares. 

 

Maybe it is 4 years of losing, injuries, not catching anymore that he has lost interest.  Add in the fact that he had expectations to be the greatest player ever and didn't live up to that mainly due to not hitting for power and getting ripped for it.  It adds up and maybe has worn him down.

 

Which brings me to my next point.  If the Twins traded him, I think he would see a career resurrection because the expectations would diminish and would most likely not have to be the "face" of the franchise.

 

.280/.360/.375

 

Anyways I think I got off track on whatever point I was trying to make . ..  .Happy Friday!

"Add in the fact that he had expectations to be the greatest player ever and didn't live up to that"

 

LOL, based on whose expectations?  Joe's? You?    I certainly have never sensed that Joe thought he was going to be the greatest player ever.  My god the guy is stoic beyond belief.  People need to wake up and smell the coffee.

  He ain't all that and by all outward appearances he's in heavy decline.  Too many people worship this dude like he's some sort of baseball god like Mickey Mantle, Hank Aaron, etc.   

[Seth Stohs]

 

I like Mauer and always thought he was a great player.  That being said, at least externally to the fans (me), he seems like baseball was just a job to him.  He never seems to be really happy to be playing the game and if his career ended today it seems he wouldn't be that greatly upset.  I could be be greatly incorrect here as he has a very mellow personality that can come off as not caring when in reality he deeply cares. 

 

Maybe it is 4 years of losing, injuries, not catching anymore that he has lost interest.  Add in the fact that he had expectations to be the greatest player ever and didn't live up to that mainly due to not hitting for power and getting ripped for it.  It adds up and maybe has worn him down.

 

Which brings me to my next point.  If the Twins traded him, I think he would see a career resurrection because the expectations would diminish and would most likely not have to be the "face" of the franchise.

 

.280/.360/.375

 

Anyways I think I got off track on whatever point I was trying to make . ..  .Happy Friday!

 

Just a few notes... 

 

1.) It is his job. I'm sure he enjoys it, but it is his job.

2.) He works hard at his job. No one sees what he does.

3.) His "good guy" persona is legit. He is a family-first type, and that's how it should be.

4.) Expectations were set by him being incredible from at 21 through 31... as a catcher.

5.) The contract, as much as we like to think it's based on what he would do is always based on what a player has done. The Cardinals made the tough choice to let Pujols go, and it was wise. Can you even imagine what the Twins fans would have done if they had let Mauer go at that time? 

6.) People need to realize that his great days are over. We also need to never forget that greatness. Hopefully he can be 10% better than average. That would be good at this stage. 

7.) They need to move him out of the 3 spot. No question. That's not on the player. He doesn't make the lineup. 

8.)  Who cares if he's stoic? Not sure what that has to do with his performance on the field. That's an old and tired thought. It doesn't mean he doesn't work, or doesn't care, or isn't competitive or any of that stuff.

[Ultima Ratio]

Why doesn't Joe stand 4 inches closer to the plate to more easily cover the outside of the plate and be able to pull or at least put the ball hard back up the middle?  I don't ever see him get brushed back, so dare the pitcher to move you off the plate a bit -- and maybe get an middle-in mistake and launch it.  There's still quite a margin between his stance and the plate, so the pitcher would really have to be throwing deep inside to worry Mauer with his concussion history, but may that has something to do with it anyway.

 

Get closer to the plate.  Then you make every pitcher and defense adjust to your adjustment.  Without an adjustment like this, not much difference can be expected.

 

(Plus, Joe's a nice guy, so no one's going to throw at his ear hole, right?)

[jokin]

No chance that the Twins put the pressure on Joe and force him out. On the other hand, maybe Joe makes the decision himself to walk away.. It would be hard on anyone's ego if you were an elite hitter, and all of a sudden it's gone. Do I think he would walk away from $46 million remaining on his contract? Probably not.... I'm afraid we're going to have a $23 mill / year part time 1B and DH very soon.

 

EDIT: My prediction for final stat line is .270 5 HR .700 OPS

It isn't $46M, it's $69M. This team is transforming itself right around him. Hard to imagine how he could stay in the exact same role through Oct 1, 2018.

[Vanimal46]

 

It isn't $46M, it's $69M. This team is transforming itself right around him. Hard to imagine how he could stay in the exact same role through Oct 1, 2018.

 

Ugh, I thought we only had 2 years left of this contract...

[drunksam]

My question is: Did people think that Mauer would maintain what he was for about 7-8 years through age 36?

In my dreams. In my dreams........

[mickeymental]

similar question: did people think cano or pujols would maintain what they were for 10 years?

[Mike Sixel]

Those are total red herring/straw man arguments.....NO ONE is arguing if they thought Mauer was going to be the awesomeist forever......it is a great use of a logical fallacy......

 

We are talking about him being BAD compared to other 1B, and probably bad compared to Sano, and maybe Kepler soon......

[mickeymental]

few if any are arguing that he's anything but bad right now ...

[gocgo]

I think the issue for Joe started when he grew late.  A 6'2" catcher is plausible, a 6'5" catcher is not.  Higher profile catchers stand a greater chance of getting beat up and a lesser chance of throwing out runners.  When Joe was drafted, he was not 6'5".  When he was learning the position, he was shorter yet.  In his earlier career, he threw out runners at or above the league percentage.  That declined as he advanced in years and stature.  At his prime, he was a really good catcher and a great hitter. Prior to Joe, a great catcher batted .280 and threw out 40+ percent of runners (Johnny Bench was 6'1").  In his prime, Joe batted .350 and threw out 40+ percent of runners.  Yadi Molina is someone that I would say is one of the best catchers in the game today.  He's 5'11", bats .287 and throws out 45-50 percent of the runners.  Joe batting .350 and throwing out 40 percent of runners was insane...but so is catching when you are 6'5".

 

Best catcher ever?  Roy Campanella - 5'9", batted .276 and threw out 57% of runners.  JMO.

[dougkoebernick]

 

Just a few notes... 

 

1.) It is his job. I'm sure he enjoys it, but it is his job.

2.) He works hard at his job. No one sees what he does.

3.) His "good guy" persona is legit. He is a family-first type, and that's how it should be.

4.) Expectations were set by him being incredible from at 21 through 31... as a catcher.

5.) The contract, as much as we like to think it's based on what he would do is always based on what a player has done. The Cardinals made the tough choice to let Pujols go, and it was wise. Can you even imagine what the Twins fans would have done if they had let Mauer go at that time? 

6.) People need to realize that his great days are over. We also need to never forget that greatness. Hopefully he can be 10% better than average. That would be good at this stage. 

7.) They need to move him out of the 3 spot. No question. That's not on the player. He doesn't make the lineup. 

8.)  Who cares if he's stoic? Not sure what that has to do with his performance on the field. That's an old and tired thought. It doesn't mean he doesn't work, or doesn't care, or isn't competitive or any of that stuff.

Great points Seth - who would you like to see in the #3 hole? Dozier with a different lead off guy?

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Just look at the catcher position. I'm sure there are many examples. There's a reason that there are very, very few MLB catchers that hit over .300 after they turn 30. And yeah, you can say that he's not a catcher anymore, but those miles are still on his legs and his knees. 

 

I agree that it initially was concussion related, and it may still be in some ways. The bat speed just isn't consistently there any more. Once in a while.

 

I think he can be a .275/.345/400 type. 

 

My question is: Did people think that Mauer would maintain what he was for about 7-8 years through age 36?

very good question. I guess I thought the decline would be more gradual. Seems like more of a cliff than a slope, but then I guess an extended period off to recover from a serious injury might make the decline seem more severe than it is.

 

I agree with the general .275 to .280 ba and .700 to .750 ops theme.

[Seth Stohs]

 

very good question. I guess I thought the decline would be more gradual. Seems like more of a cliff than a slope, but then I guess an extended period off to recover from a serious injury might make the decline seem more severe than it is.

I agree with the general .275 to .280 ba and .700 to .750 ops theme.

 

I agree... no one thought it would be this big of a fall... 

 

I still hold out hope of him being solid again. 

[Minniman]

I am not sure Bruno can help Mauer. Maybe the Twins should bring in another coach.

 

Why do MLB teams only have one hitting coach anyway? Not every batter hits the same way.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

I am not sure Bruno can help Mauer. Maybe the Twins should bring in another coach.

 

Why do MLB teams only have one hitting coach anyway? Not every batter hits the same way.

The Twins do have two hitting coaches. Rudy Hernandez is the assistant hitting coach.

[Blake]

 

Bruno was on 1500 yesterday and said he has been working a lot with Joe trying to make some changes.  He was asked why his hitting was so much better with RISP.   He said when there are runners on base he is more focused on just getting them in -- when there is no one on base he is trying new things and is not quite there with some of the techniques - he is kind of in an in-between stage with mastering these adjustments.  I would imagine spring training with pitchers not at the peak is not enough time to modify a hitting style you have done since age 14.  

 

I am thinking more and more that perhaps he is in a decline either due to  the concussion and/or being a large catcher for years that had a significant knee injury early on, but I will cling to the kool aid a little longer in hoping that at some point he will be able to make some adjustments and improve. 

I'm glad to hear this. My biggest beef with Joe has been the fact that he has not changed his approach at the plate while the rest of the league has adjusted to Joe Mauer.  

 

Final line: 280 with 10 HR. (Joe seems to be looking to pull more balls, which is good)

[DocBauer]

It pains me greatly to say this....but I think age and damage has reduced him to a .270-ish hitter with a 10 HR max, but probably more in the 7-8 range. Experience and recognition could still keep his OB in the .350 range. Less contact, less average, but still a big strapping man, it is my hope he can at least be a 30+ doubles player still.

 

I really and truly believed Mauer, seemingly recovered and moved to 1B, would rebound to hit in that .290-.300 range, keep the OB at .380-.390, and while I have never believed he would suddenly transform in to a power hitter, just playing 150 games a year should put him 12-15 HR's while still providing 35-35+ doubles. I saw him being Wally Joyner-Mark Grace-Keith Hernandez-ish. And not only is that a really, really good thing, (despite not being an lassie 1B slugger) how could you look at Mauer's history, see him healthy at age 31, NOT OLD, look at the kind of hitter/producer he has been his ENTIRE career as long as healthy, and NOT think that is what and who he would be? I mean really! At least for a few years, right? A natural, champion all-star silver slugger hitter with a great eye, line drive power, and now not subjected to the rigors of catching should be that guy..........shouldn't he?

 

Mauer is NOT an old man, nor is he and old ballplayer. You can talk about the rigors of catching, but he has converted to 1B, not 3B, nor a corner OF position. To me...there is something amiss here. Like good friend Morneau, he may show a late recovery from his concussion injury and again flash his old self. But right now...here and now...something has clearly robbed our man Mauer of his skills.

 

While I will hope for the best, right now, I am resigned to Mauer not finishing out his contract. Like his move from behind the plate (where his decreased hitting would still be OK) to preserve health and consider his family, I can easily see Mauer trying it for one more season and then walking away for pride, family, and love of the game. Possibly with a personal services type of arrangement?