2016 Election Thread

[Craig Arko]

"@ilduce2016: “It is better to live one day as a lion than 100 years as a sheep.” – @realDonaldTrump #MakeAmericaGreatAgain"

 

Yup.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sure, but his 82 is still 65 more than anyone else.  He's got five times what anyone else has and he's running away with primaries.

The numbers in the first sentence make the second sentence mostly irrelevant.

 

65 delegates is essentially one Ohio.

 

Florida is a winner-take-all state with 99 delegates. If Rubio wins the state, there's 150% of your 65 delegate gap.

 

There's a lot in flux and Trump can certainly win this thing but it's far from a certainty at this point.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Whoa, time to tap the brakes.

 

Yes, some of these trends are surprising and, to an extent, troubling... But we're four states into primary season.

 

And those four states account for less than 3.8% of the United States' population. They're also some of the looniest states in the country.

 

Every four years, we lose our minds some time in early March because Radical & Insane Candidate X is making a surprising run at the nomination. You'd think we'd learn our lesson at some point but it never happens.

 

Yes, Trump has a chance to win the nomination but with ~96% of the country left to weigh in, it's a bit early to draw significant conclusions from what we've seen thus far.

 

Look, there are a lot of people way better at statistically projecting these things than me that disagree.   Here too.  And we already saw the StoneyBrook model.  

 

I don't like it, the guy is a whack job, but things are looking his way in an overwhelming fashion right now.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yes, Trump has a chance to win the nomination but with ~96% of the country left to weigh in, it's a bit early to draw significant conclusions from what we've seen thus far.

 

Except we're using advanced polling (polling that has largely been reflective of the results, if not underselling Trump if anything) and a variety of other measures.  If you want to see the reality setting in, just listen to the Republicans scrambling to deal with this.  They seem to think it's all but inevitable.

 

And it's also not true that we saw anything like this in 2012.  Cruz/Santorum are similar, but in all the other early states Trump is outperforming Romney.  

[stringer bell]

Trump will do "well" on Super Tuesday. Cruz will probably win his home state (that is Texas, not Calgary), keeping the battle between three major candidates. Two weeks later comes Florida, which will be Rubio's moment of truth. Wins in Ohio and Florida for Trump would just about wrap it up for him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well, we'll find out more in two days. I'm not really sold on some of the projection models, as there are still too many candidates and one major event (good or bad) from any one of them could drastically shift the outcome of both Super Tuesday and March 15th (which has two winner-take-all states).

 

If Trump wins Ohio or Florida, he almost surely gets the nomination. If those two states split (Ohio to Kasich, Florida to Rubio), then Trump probably wins. If one non-Trump candidate wins both, then it's wide open (combined, the two states are worth 165 delegates).

[TheLeviathan]

 

If Trump wins Ohio or Florida, he almost surely gets the nomination. If those two states split (Ohio to Kasich, Florida to Rubio), then Trump probably wins. If one non-Trump candidate wins both, then it's wide open (combined, the two states are worth 165 delegates).

 

Sure, but I think you just kind of made my point.  So long as it remains Trump and both Cruz and Rubio...there's almost no chance the same guy wins both Ohio and Florida.  Unless that guy is Trump.

[Squirrel]

 

 

I think people are paying attention and I think he is tapping into something...strange. 

 

He's tapping into the hate that is in all of us and fostering it and letting it froth and fester.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Also, the Iowa handgun law is also the most preposterous thing ever. Read about it if you haven't.

I disagree. I think an "arm every child" law could be useful. If implemented properly, parents would be mandated to send their children to school with their fire arms, thereby preventing any future Sandy Hook incident from happening. Even better, public schools could contract with the NRA to teach marksmanship classes.

[Hrbowski]

I am currently a mixture of shock and anger at the GOP, and if Trump is the nominee I am leaving the party.

[Hrbowski]

 

I don't see it. The guy has insulted pretty much everyone who isn't a white male at one point or another.

He has insulted them.

[Hrbowski]

 

... an eccentric lifelong politician senator who really doesn't do anything and hasn't really done much in the senate. Prior to him running for POTUS nobody outside of Vermont knew who he was.

That little bit could describe Clinton.

 

Also, I knew who Sanders was.

[DaveW]

 

That little bit could describe Clinton.

 

Also, I knew who Sanders was.

Yes, clearly Hilary hasn't done anything Secretary of state is pretty much a gig anyone would be suited for, no? :whacky028:

[Craig Arko]

Yes, clearly Hilary hasn't done anything Secretary of state is pretty much a gig anyone would be suited for, no? :whacky028:

I hear Sano is going to give it a shot.

[formerly33]

 

I hear Sano is going to give it a shot.

Obviously, if Sano can succeed in the role which has been so incongruously thrust upon him, he'll be qualified in every capacity for any profession he chooses to take up.

[twinsnorth49]

I disagree. I think an "arm every child" law could be useful. If implemented properly, parents would be mandated to send their children to school with their fire arms, thereby preventing any future Sandy Hook incident from happening. Even better, public schools could contract with the NRA to teach marksmanship classes.

This thread being what it is.......not sure if serious .

[DaveW]

 

This thread being what it is.......not sure if serious .

I don't think it goes far enough, just think what we could accomplish if we arm fetuses?

[twinsnorth49]

I don't think it goes far enough, just think what we could accomplish if we arm fetuses?

One would think this could never happen, but then again I thought the same thing about Trump.

[DaveW]

 

One would think this could never happen, but then again I thought the same thing about Trump.

The democrat I assume?

[TheLeviathan]

This thread being what it is.......not sure if serious .

I figure an armed classroom will have a direct effect on my grading practices.

[TheLeviathan]

If you missed Jon Oliver's take on Trump last night, you should google it.  It's worth every second.

[PseudoSABR]

 

If you missed Jon Oliver's take on Trump last night, you should google it.  It's worth every second.

For the lazy.

[twinsnorth49]

 

Trump will do "well" on Super Tuesday. Cruz will probably win his home state (that is Texas, not Calgary), keeping the battle between three major candidates. Two weeks later comes Florida, which will be Rubio's moment of truth. Wins in Ohio and Florida for Trump would just about wrap it up for him.

Ummm......Calgary isn't a state.....c'mon now, don't reinforce the stereotype I already have of you guys.

[formerly33]

 

He has insulted them.

By this I suppose you mean it's insulting to have such a blatant reminder that racism and sexism are still prevalent issues in modern American society. Or maybe it's as simple as, "He has insulted individual white men; therefore, I've come to the conclusion that he's insulting them as a group in the same manner he insults women and minorities."

 

Because of course you understand that when Brock said, "The guy has insulted pretty much everyone who isn't a white male at one point or another," he meant Drumpf has insulted them by his collective bigotry towards them.

[Mike Sixel]

I am very disappointed Rubio is calling Trump names, pointing out his hair, and his skin color. I had hoped, against logic, that he would be a US Senator, not a 12 year old. I don't even know what to think of the Republicans right now, I used to think some of them were Presidential, if not who I would agree with. 

[Willihammer]

Even before the Christy exchange it was obvious that Rubio was an automaton. He just isn't very  sharp, and inspires zero confidence as a leader. Honestly, if there is a foreign policy crisis, is that the guy we want going eyeball to eyeball with Vlad Putin or whoever? LOL.

Ditto Cruz, Bush, Kasich, Paul, etc. Everyone except Trump.

[Craig Arko]

 

Even before the Christy exchange it was obvious that Rubio was an automaton. He just isn't very  sharp, and inspires zero confidence as a leader. Honestly, if there is a foreign policy crisis, is that the guy we want going eyeball to eyeball with Vlad Putin or whoever? LOL.

Ditto Cruz, Bush, Kasich, Paul, etc. Everyone except Trump.

I'd only let Trump go eye-to-eye with Putin if we took away the launch codes, thank you very much.

[Hrbowski]

 

Even before the Christy exchange it was obvious that Rubio was an automaton. He just isn't very  sharp, and inspires zero confidence as a leader. Honestly, if there is a foreign policy crisis, is that the guy we want going eyeball to eyeball with Vlad Putin or whoever? LOL.

Ditto Cruz, Bush, Kasich, Paul, etc. Everyone except Trump.

Isn't very sharp? That is one of the dumbest things I have ever read. Trump is a failure who is being carried by the Klan.

[Willihammer]

 

Isn't very sharp? That is one of the dumbest things I have ever read. Trump is a failure who is being carried by the Klan.

OK well regardless of Turmp's supporters or his policies or net worth or anything else, when it comes to just speaking off-script (which I call "sharpness"), Trump does it 1000x better than anyone else in the field. His entire campaign is unscripted.

Rubio looks like a fool when he breaks script. So does Cruz.

[stringer bell]

 

Even before the Christy exchange it was obvious that Rubio was an automaton. He just isn't very  sharp, and inspires zero confidence as a leader. Honestly, if there is a foreign policy crisis, is that the guy we want going eyeball to eyeball with Vlad Putin or whoever? LOL.

Ditto Cruz, Bush, Kasich, Paul, etc. Everyone except Trump.

IMHO, the Republicans are all sharp enough. Their problem is that they are being forced to spew malarkey to feed the base, which is in conflict with real discussion of real issues.