Souhan on Plouffe

[gunnarthor]

http://www.startribune.com/twins-savvy-plouffe-goes-from-stopgap-to-standout/304064641/

 

Nice little piece on Plouffe, who, in Souhan's words, may be the best all around player on the Twins and no longer a stop gap to Sano.  Plouffe also seems to acknowledge that he's grown up in the organization and wants to remain in MN.  

 

I do think that if the Twins decided to trade him, they'd get a very nice haul.  And he's 29 this year and under team control for several more years so other teams should/will covet him.  But keeping him around makes a lot of sense, even if Sano is everything we hope for (and he's really turned a corner in May).  He's a good player and it's unlikely that Sano will be better at third defensively, even though his bat will probably be better.  Sano can still go to a corner OF and eventually replace Mauer, if needed.  But I like the idea of a lineup where Plouffe is hitting well and not our third or fourth best hitter.

[TheLeviathan]

The Twins should listen to offers, but be in no rush whatsoever.

[stringer bell]

Souhan has done a 180 on Plouffe. As recently as 2013, Souhan was lobbying for the Twins to get Trevor out of town. It was about more than his play on the field. I think it is significant that Plouffe is continuing to work hard even after solidifying his position on the team.

 

BTW, I put Plouffe behind Dozier in the all-around player rankings. Dozier is the better base runner, tipping the scales in his favor.

[spinowner]

 

I do think that if the Twins decided to trade him, they'd get a very nice haul.

This is the crux of the trade-or-not-to-trade question. It's not whether someone should be traded it's whether TR feels the trade will improve the organization's position. I'd probably (probably) trade Buxton to the Dodgers if they'd give us Kershaw and Puig in return.

As for Plouffe, it will be interesting to see what happens when July rolls around. If any contending teams covet him to the extent that they would be willing to make a trade that would make sense for us it wouldn't surprise me to see it happen, especially if Sano continues to improve.

[Parker Hageman]

Souhan has done a 180 on Plouffe.

 

 

I prefer to call it a flip-flop. Souhan has gone from amazing prospect to trash and back again over the last several years. Case in point:

 

July 2011:

When last seen in the big leagues, Plouffe was sailing throws like Tarvaris Jackson and Young was tying himself into the shape of a soft pretzel in the batter's box. Thursday, Ron Gardenhire made Plouffe his first baseman, then shifted him to designated hitter when Jim Thome's sore toe acted up.

 

March 2012:

Plouffe has two major advantages over Revere: the ability to hit the ball with authority, and the ability to throw it with authority. Revere has strengthened his arm but still struggles to get the ball to the cutoff man with any velocity. Plouffe, the former shortstop, has a much stronger arm.

 

 

May 2012:

A month ago, the Twins' plan was to survive questionable starting pitching by relying on what looked like a deep lineup. Now their batting order looks every bit as pathetic as last year's Fun Bunch Battalion.

 

With Josh Willingham nursing a skin condition, the bottom five in the lineup on Monday night were Danny Valencia, Chris Parmelee, Trevor Plouffe, Komatsu and Jamey Carroll.

 

 

 

June 2012:

The newly-shorn Plouffe is no longer the goofy kid with the boy-band hair.

 

 

 

August 2014:

Trade Trevor Plouffe: If the Twins play Santana at shortstop, that will mean moving Eduardo Escobar out of the starting role.

 

 

Plouffe is 28. He has not turned himself into an accomplished third baseman. He has produced power in flashes, yet he and Escobar have virtually the same OPS (on-base-plus-slugging percentage) this season.

 

 

And now? 

 

The presumption for years was that Plouffe would be expendable by the time Sano was ready to play third base. But what if Plouffe is the Twins’ best player at that point? What if he’s a proven cleanup hitter and a far better fielder than Sano?

 

 

The placeholder might just stay in place.

 

[Linus]

Man, Trevor went from whipping boy to teen idol in a very short period of time.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I highly doubt Buxton will be traded to the Dodgers. But something's got to give with all the corner infield/outfield/DH type guys including Plouffe in that group. There's too much potential value there, and not enough spots in the lineup.

[Thrylos]

Got to love it that Souhan brought Twins' mouthpiece in the story to give a view on the topic as well.  Gee.

 

and another gem:

 

 

For once, Plouffe’s successes are not revealed by traditional statistics.

 

UZR/150 2012:-14.9, 2013: -8.6, 2014: 7.7, 2015: 6.9
RZR: 2012:.691, 2013: .727, 2014: .736, 2015: .797
even good old range factor:
RF/G: 2012:2.73, 2013: 2.38, 2014: 2.64, 2015: 3.07

[markos]

 

This is the crux of the trade-or-not-to-trade question. It's not whether someone should be traded it's whether TR feels the trade will improve the organization's position. I'd probably (probably) trade Buxton to the Dodgers if they'd give us Kershaw and Puig in return.

As for Plouffe, it will be interesting to see what happens when July rolls around. If any contending teams covet him to the extent that they would be willing to make a trade that would make sense for us it wouldn't surprise me to see it happen, especially if Sano continues to improve.

Jim Bowden reported a couple weeks ago that the Giants were in the market for a long-term 3B solution (not just a rental), and they were willing to trade minor league pitching. I thought it would be worth exploring for the following reasons:

1) The Twins have a decent short-term replacement in Escobar
2) They have a potential long-term replacement in Sano
3) The Giants have a long history of giving up serious, high-end prospects for players (Zack Wheeler, Francisco Liriano)
4) They have lots of pitching prospects (and a mix of high-ceiling and high-floor) to choose from right now (Beede, Crick, Mella as some interesting names to headline a deal)

 

The Twins are definitely dealing from a position of strength, as they have no dire need to move Plouffe any time soon. However, I don't think he is untouchable, and if an offer comes along that blows their socks off (perhaps revolving around a really good catching prospect?), they should take it.

[IowaTwin346]

One of my favorite places to go for a good laugh is the comment section on a Souhan article about the Twins.  

 

Take some time to read through there. Some brilliant minds hanging out.

 

That said I am a big fan of Plouffe.  He probably is never going to hit for much better avg wise than he did last year, will hit for some power and play consistently in the field.  I remember when Cuddyer was a big prospect for the Twins and he was ready to be the third basemen and watching him struggle to field routine ground balls. Some guys figure it out with the bat before the glove.  Plouffe started with the power, challenging Hammer a few years ago and everything else has come along.  

[Shane Wahl]

Plouffe is replicating 2014, and that is very good. Certainly a top 10 third baseman overall, though we will see if the defense holds up.

 

And yes, dear lord, he should be traded at the deadline. This is likely, hopefully, the last draft for awhile that puts the Twins in the top 10-12 picks. The remaining aging veteran assets not named Mauer should be traded for prospect depth. Plouffe, Suzuki, Hunter, and half the 'pen . . .

[TheLeviathan]

 

Plouffe is replicating 2014, and that is very good. Certainly a top 10 third baseman overall, though we will see if the defense holds up.

 

And yes, dear lord, he should be traded at the deadline. This is likely, hopefully, the last draft for awhile that puts the Twins in the top 10-12 picks. The remaining aging veteran assets not named Mauer should be traded for prospect depth. Plouffe, Suzuki, Hunter, and half the 'pen . . .

 

Totally agree with the reasonable caveat that they get worthwhile value in return.  Not "we robbed the bank!", but worthwhile.

 

We can see the corner turning, we should add all the longterm assets for short-term ones that we can.

[nicksaviking]

 

Man, Trevor went from whipping boy to teen idol in a very short period of time.  

 

Yeah but to be fair, Souhan wasn't exactly alone in those positions.  The fanbase has been off and on the bandwagon as much as the media.

 

Personally, I've been off the bandwagon most of this time. I now see he's a solid player, and the Twins are lucky to have him.   I've only recently come to accept that in today's game, a 3B isn't always, or often an .800 OPS guy.

 

I'm hoping Sano one day makes me change my opinion back though.

[Lakeside]

It should not surprise anyone as to what Plouffe is now doing.  He's a former #1 draft pick with loads of talent.  Check out guys like Hunter, Cuddyer, Smalley. . . all former #1 draft picks that took about 1000 at bats in the bigs to hit full stride.  Plouffe has been a few more at bats but he is hitting stride now. 

 

I expect him to continue to get better and while Sano may be the 3B of the future. . . he is also going to need AB's to get his game on line at the MLB level.

 

I have no idea what the Twins will do with Plouffe but do agree that Escobar is a serviceable 3B at the present time if we wanted to try to get something for Plouffe at the trade deadline.  Or, maybe we want to try to get something for Escobar???

 

I also agree Dozier is the best all-around player on the Twins.  I didn't always think so (thought his HR totals would be a fluke) but he has a knack for scoring runs (and you need runs to win) and I'm expecting him to hit about .275-.280 this year. . . .which is a big improvement.  IMO . . .a smart move to tie him up for a few more years.

[lwarring]

I will go against the grain here and suggest keeping Plouffe and consider trading Sano, provided it was for a game changing pitcher. Sano may end up being great, but we have enough bats now and coming up. What we seem to always lack is top level pitching. Take a risk and get an ace and trust that we will have plenty of bats to fill in the void. I feel the Twins farm system seems to be good at identifying and/or creating good position players but seems to lack the ability to scout or develop good arms.

 

 

[jimmer]

 

I will go against the grain here and suggest keeping Plouffe and consider trading Sano, provided it was for a game changing pitcher. Sano may end up being great, but we have enough bats now and coming up. What we seem to always lack is top level pitching. Take a risk and get an ace and trust that we will have plenty of bats to fill in the void. I feel the Twins farm system seems to be good at identifying and/or creating good position players but seems to lack the ability to scout or develop good arms.

Yeah, if we're lucky, Ryan can trade Sano for a quality top of the rotation type pitching prospect like he did when he traded Span....

[Lakeside]

 

I will go against the grain here and suggest keeping Plouffe and consider trading Sano, provided it was for a game changing pitcher. Sano may end up being great, but we have enough bats now and coming up. What we seem to always lack is top level pitching. Take a risk and get an ace and trust that we will have plenty of bats to fill in the void. I feel the Twins farm system seems to be good at identifying and/or creating good position players but seems to lack the ability to scout or develop good arms.

Intriguing proposition. . . don't know if I agree though. However, I've been around baseball for over 50 years and I am of the opinion that the most probable future HR hitter the Twins have in the system is Travis Harrison.  He's only 22, balls jump off his bat, he is on pace to hit over 45 doubles in AA.  As he gets older many of the 2Bs will become HRs.

 

Again, IMO while everybody talks Buxton, Sano, Walker, I continue to be most impressed with Harrison and Polanco.

 

 

[USAFChief]

 

Totally agree with the reasonable caveat that they get worthwhile value in return.  Not "we robbed the bank!", but worthwhile.

 

We can see the corner turning, we should add all the longterm assets for short-term ones that we can.

Plouffe isn't a short term asset, for one thing.

 

Second thing:  If you're convinced you're turning the corner, why would you trade major league assets?

 

That seems backwards to me.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Plouffe isn't a short term asset, for one thing.

 

Second thing:  If you're convinced you're turning the corner, why would you trade major league assets?

 

That seems backwards to me.

 

Plouffe is likely a short-term asset.  At 29 any contract we give him after arbitration is almost certain to be a bad investment.  Just by virtue of his age when he debuted (much like Dozier) it makes any long term investment really, really dicey.

 

I don't look to trade him, but I'd listen to anyone that wanted to give me a near-ready player with some serious upside. I wouldn't deal him for anything less than a blue-chipper.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Jim Bowden reported a couple weeks ago that the Giants were in the market for a long-term 3B solution (not just a rental), and they were willing to trade minor league pitching. I thought it would be worth exploring for the following reasons:

1) The Twins have a decent short-term replacement in Escobar
2) They have a potential long-term replacement in Sano
3) The Giants have a long history of giving up serious, high-end prospects for players (Zack Wheeler, Francisco Liriano)
4) They have lots of pitching prospects (and a mix of high-ceiling and high-floor) to choose from right now (Beede, Crick, Mella as some interesting names to headline a deal)

 

The Twins are definitely dealing from a position of strength, as they have no dire need to move Plouffe any time soon. However, I don't think he is untouchable, and if an offer comes along that blows their socks off (perhaps revolving around a really good catching prospect?), they should take it.

Susac, plus a pitching prospect?

[USAFChief]

Plouffe is likely a short-term asset.  At 29 any contract we give him after arbitration is almost certain to be a bad investment.  Just by virtue of his age when he debuted (much like Dozier) it makes any long term investment really, really dicey.

 

I don't look to trade him, but I'd listen to anyone that wanted to give me a near-ready player with some serious upside. I wouldn't deal him for anything less than a blue-chipper.

He doesn't need a contract through 2017. 2.75 more seasons. That's not really short term.

 

Baseball players don't fall off the earth at 31, either, if you want more than through 2017.

 

He's a good, solid big leaguer. Shouldn't the Twins be trying to collect those types?

[TheLeviathan]

 

He doesn't need a contract through 2017. 2.75 more seasons. That's not really short term.

Baseball players don't fall off the earth at 31, either, if you want more than through 2017.

He's a good, solid big leaguer. Shouldn't the Twins be trying to collect those types?

 

I've made clear I'm in no rush to deal him.  But if I can get a 24 year old big league contributor for him...why wouldn't I?

 

2 additional years is absolutely what I would call a short term asset.  And the risk to extend him beyond that is much higher than you're making out.  For example, there is a certain number 7 on our team that flies in the face of your comments about age 31.....

 

 So yeah, it can and does happen.  Statistically at a pretty high rate in fact.

[Willihammer]

 

Yeah, if we're lucky, Ryan can trade Sano for a quality top of the rotation type pitching prospect like he did when he traded Span....

In that scenario, ideally, we're the ones getting several years of solid production out of a legit MLB player for a top prospect who never materializes into anything (or takes a looong time to materialize into... something).

[PseudoSABR]

Find a spot for Sano and Plouffe as long as they produce, trade either for the show horse.  

[jimmer]

 

In that scenario, ideally, we're the ones getting several years of solid production out of a legit MLB player for a top prospect who never materializes into anything (or takes a looong time to materialize into... something).

ideally.  though I wouldn't bet money on that type of player being targeted

[Brandon Warne]

I like this story when I wrote it -- a couple weeks ago.