Nolasco to have MRI

[tobi0040]

 

A walk rate in the 9s won't work, but last year's walk rate was not unusual in AAA for a pitcher with good stuff.

 

Other pitchers with high AAA/AA walk rates.

 

Hernandez 4.9

Price 4.6
Lester 4.3
Samardzija 4.2

 

I don't know if he can pitch at the major league level. I just don't think he is going to get any closer to ready pitching in AAA. He was best the first half of last season and his efforts to bring down his walk rate have sent him in reverse. 

 

May and Meyer need to be in the rotation this year and the Twins need to assess whether they can grow into mid rotation starters. They already spent 100 million in search on the back end of the rotation.

 

No disagreement here.  If he is in the mid 4's or even 5.  Bring him up.

 

But at this point it would seem like a terrible idea for his confidence and frankly, mean.

 

[jimmer]

 

I agree, they should be up, that's how the Twins will get more information. I thought both should be up last year........and stay up.

Look at the bright side, by the time they reach FA for the first time they'll just be going into their decline years.

[h2oface]

 

MLB hitters will certainly do a better job of hitting Meyer.  I don't think that's unrealistic.  I don't see how that's going to reduce his walk rate unless we are arguing that no one bothers to take the bat off their shoulders.  That said, I don't see that changing in the big leagues.  Those walks will still come, except that some hitters can and will punish pitches that aren't good. 

Again, this is opinion and total conjecture. We can talk about it all we want. Nobody will know what will happen until he is given the opportunity. You could be right. You also could be very very wrong.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

By the way, Meyer did not have control problems when Twins traded for him.

For those of you who agree with the Twins that Meyer should remain in AAA, what do you personally feel is the reason he has not met expectations or cannot throw strikes, or whatever? What is there left to do, that you would like to see the Twins try?

Is it that he didn't have control problems or that less disciplined hitters in A+ weren't laying off as much?  Control becomes a much bigger problem higher up you go.  That won't change in the majors.  Just look at the jump in May's walk rate between AAA and MLB.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Again, this is opinion and total conjecture. We can talk about it all we want. Nobody will know what will happen until he is given the opportunity. You could be right. You also could be very very wrong.

 

I guess I'm missing how my statements that MLB hitters will do a better job against Meyer than minor league hitters have is conjecture.   Are you really arguing that they'll do a worse job than AAA hitters?  When May got promoted, his walk rate skyrocketed.  Is it a fixable issue?  Sure, but let's not pretend that there isn't a talent gap between AAA and MLB.  If you have some study that shows that AAA pitchers consistently see a drop in walk rates on promotions to MLB, I'll freely admit right here that I'm wrong, but I don't think it's conjecture to state that major league hitters will hit him better than minor league hitters.  Nor do I think it's conjecture to state that if a guy can't hit the zone consistently in the minors, those problems won't get any easier as he advances.

[h2oface]

 

No disagreement here.  If he is in the mid 4's or even 5.  Bring him up.

 

But at this point it would seem like a terrible idea for his confidence and frankly, mean.

If the management supports him, is in his ear that he is going to be just fine, we believe in you, and we are going to stick with you for the rest of the year...... I think the performance blips could be overcome. I think confidence can come from support and belief.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

From what I understand, his mechanics are all over the place. 

 

The flip side is, if a guy is walking more than a guy an inning in AAA, what do you expect to happen by promoting him?  He is suddenly going to gain some control against better hitters?

Yes, very possibly. He might find some control if he is promoted. Professional hitters such as the guys in the Detroit Tigers lineup would love nothing more than to take their best hacks against a guy like Meyer. Very different from the overmatched AAA guys who sit back taking pitches they have no hope of putting in play. That's one school of thought.

 

Mechanics. Many pitchers slip out of their grooves from time to time. Tougher for taller guys, everybody gets that. It seems like the longer they leave him in the minors, the higher the walk rates, the more problems he develops. And now they want him to learn a change up. Wrong answer, imo.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If the management supports him, is in his ear that he is going to be just fine, we believe in you, and we are going to stick with you for the rest of the year...... I think the performance blips could be overcome. I think confidence can come from support and belief.

ABSOLUTELY!!

[h2oface]

 

I guess I'm missing how my statements that MLB hitters will do a better job against Meyer than minor league hitters have is conjecture.   Are you really arguing that they'll do a worse job than AAA hitters?  When May got promoted, his walk rate skyrocketed.  Is it a fixable issue?  Sure, but let's not pretend that there isn't a talent gap between AAA and MLB.  If you have some study that shows that AAA pitchers consistently see a drop in walk rates on promotions to MLB, I'll freely admit right here that I'm wrong, but I don't think it's conjecture to state that major league hitters will hit him better than minor league hitters.  Nor do I think it's conjecture to state that if a guy can't hit the zone consistently in the minors, those problems won't get any easier as he advances.

OK. You are absolutely correct in your assertions of how the future for this one individual will be. While opinions based on incomplete information are conjecture by definition, we will allow yours to not be. The incomplete information here that this opinion is formulated with Meyer never actually pitching in the MLB. I think a recent example of a player surprisingly performing better in the MLB than in the minors is Danny Santana. It does happen sometimes, regardless of what the studies predict.

[blairpaul715]

 

Good!

If anything, this might teach him to bid on the high priced guys who can actually make a difference. Add Santana and Nolasco's contracts together and you have enough to sign a genuine ace.

This is how I like to think of it, lets say you have a REAL ace, he wins 16 to 18 games and a young kid or prospect in the rotation who wins 8 to 10 games.......that is as good as having the likes of 2 Santana's winning 12 to 14 games.......now if you make the playoffs, you have an ace, and if he gets hurt, you werent going to win anyway, better draft pic

[diehardtwinsfan]

OK. You are absolutely correct in your assertions of how the future for this one individual will be. While opinions based on incomplete information are conjecture by definition, we will allow yours to not be. The incomplete information here that this opinion is formulated with Meyer never actually pitching in the MLB. I think a recent example of a player surprisingly performing better in the MLB than in the minors is Danny Santana. It does happen sometimes, regardless of what the studies predict.

 

You can cut out the sarcasm here as it's really not necessary.  I'm not making predictions on what Meyer will or will not be.  I am saying that major league hitters tend to be more patient and tend to do a better job against a pitcher than AAA hitters do.  You're right that a minor leaguer can improve from a promotion from time to time.  But let's not pretend that it happens all the time, or even most of the time.  And it's funny you bring up Santana since nearly everyone and his mother has predicted Danny to regress big time this year.  I think we all hope that it doesn't happen, but a .400+ BABIP invites that type of speculation.  And if you want to talk conjecture, how is it that that your argument isn't conjecture?  I find it odd that you want to dismiss what I'm saying as conjecture when I'm arguing that statistically speaking, Meyer is far more likely to get worse after a promotion than to get better, especially given that this happens to players far more than it doesn't. 

 

I don't think it's unreasonable to have a guy get those types of things under control, because it isn't that he's in AAA that is somehow making him be unable to hit the strike zone.  It's because he cannot consistently hit the strike zone.  As I said before, if you can show me concrete data that says that players consistently improve as they get promoted, I'll be the first to stand up and admit that I'm wrong.  Until then, I'll have no problems letting a guy work out control issues in the minors before he's promoted to the majors.

[blairpaul715]

 

Welcome home, Kevin Correia!I

Get to many likes and TR might read this and actually think that is what we want , and TADA he is ours, I think he is the property of the Giants, maybe we will trade Sano for him LOL

[tobi0040]

I agree guys go in and out of grooves. I just think he needs to get in one before he sniffs the big leagues.

 

I think the odds are greater that he struggles up here an has a greater chance of hurting his confidence than he does of turning a switch on.

 

I also think that his best weapon in his slider. Comes in low 90's and the bottom drops out. But if his fastball is not a threat nobody will offer at the slider. So fixing the fastball makes him better by two pitches.

[h2oface]

 

 
You can cut out the sarcasm here as it's really not necessary.  I'm not making predictions on what Meyer will or will not be.  I am saying that major league hitters tend to be more patient and tend to do a better job against a pitcher than AAA hitters do.  You're right that a minor leaguer can improve from a promotion from time to time.  But let's not pretend that it happens all the time, or even most of the time.  And it's funny you bring up Santana since nearly everyone and his mother has predicted Danny to regress big time this year.  I think we all hope that it doesn't happen, but a .400+ BABIP invites that type of speculation.  And if you want to talk conjecture, how is it that that your argument isn't conjecture?  I find it odd that you want to dismiss what I'm saying as conjecture when I'm arguing that statistically speaking, Meyer is far more likely to get worse after a promotion than to get better, especially given that this happens to players far more than it doesn't. 
 
I don't think it's unreasonable to have a guy get those types of things under control, because it isn't that he's in AAA that is somehow making him be unable to hit the strike zone.  It's because he cannot consistently hit the strike zone.  As I said before, if you can show me concrete data that says that players consistently improve as they get promoted, I'll be the first to stand up and admit that I'm wrong.  Until then, I'll have no problems letting a guy work out control issues in the minors before he's promoted to the majors.

I am truly sorry. I was trying to be sincere, and not sarcastic at all. I am sorry I have misinterpreted that you were making predictions that Meyer is not ready, and supporting it with your arguments.  I am not responsible for the definition of conjecture (which, upon checking and quoting, I understand to be: "an opinion or conclusion formed on the basis of incomplete information"), and I have been told by other mods to not state something as fact that is opinion. That is what I have tried to do here. Surely my opinion is also conjecture, and I have never asserted it is not, and have made sure to say that it is my opinion. I am not interested in showing you "concrete data" and arguing. I believe, and it is my opinion, that Meyer should be given an opportunity regardless of any study. I have stated my case and will go back to making sure I avoid engaging a moderator, for I do not hope to make you angry and suffer consequences I might disagree with. I support your having and expressing your opinion.

[blairpaul715]

 

I am truly sorry. I was trying to be sincere, and not sarcastic at all. I am sorry I have misinterpreted that you were making predictions that Meyer is not ready, and supporting it with your arguments.  I am not responsible for the definition of conjecture (which, upon checking and quoting, I understand to be: "an opinion or conclusion formed on the basis of incomplete information"), and I have been told by other mods to not state something as fact that is opinion. That is what I have tried to do here. Surely my opinion is also conjecture, and I have never asserted it is not, and have made sure to say that it is my opinion. I am not interested in showing you "concrete data" and arguing. I believe, and it is my opinion, that Meyer should be given an opportunity regardless of any study. I have stated my case and will go back to making sure I avoid engaging a moderator, for I do not hope to make you angry and suffer consequences I might disagree with. I support your having and expressing your opinion.

H20 I also didnt think it was sarcastic, i think IMO someone is a little testy, but i dont have any facts on that. Untill his comments I thought it was a good debate.

[Tibs]

 

Can't tell if serious or not...

 

Clearly I'm being serious

[Platoon]

There is one thing not noted here, or if so, I missed it. A mitigating factor in deciding whether to bring up Meyer is whether he is replacing a legitimate, competent ML pitcher?

[h2oface]

Breaking News...........

 

Trevor Bauer pitches 6 no hit innings with 11 strikeouts for Cleveland today....... but he walked 5 and threw 111 pitches. After a concerned call from Terry Ryan to Chris Antonetti, it has been decided Trevor will be optioned to the AAA Columbus Clippers to work on his control.

.......................                                                                 

[Thrylos]

 

If this goes really poorly and he has to miss significant time, TR is never, ever going to give out big contracts to pitchers again.

 

You know, I hope that he does not have another chance to do that at least for the Twins... 

[FlapsDown]

Clearly I'm being serious

It might have something to do with Ric Flair being in the same sight picture as your post...wild guess

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Good grief.  Well, Trevor May or Alex Meyer?  May wasn't stretched out but Meyer was pretty wild.

it’ll be Stauffer, and then TR will sign some 45 year old career triple a player for the bullpen

[tobi0040]

Breaking News...........

 

Trevor Bauer pitches 6 no hit innings with 11 strikeouts for Cleveland today....... but he walked 5 and threw 111 pitches. After a concerned call from Terry Ryan to Chris Antonetti, it has been decided Trevor will be optioned to the AAA Columbus Clippers to work on his control.

.......................

Bauer went 6 scoreless. Gives up no hits and 5 bb. 11 k to a major league team

 

Meyer went 5. 3 er. 6 bb. 3 k to minor league players. The only one I have heard of was colabello.

[adorduan]

 

This is a serious damage control situation for the front office.   Nolasco has been ineffective since the day he signed with Minnesota.  The Twins have invested a TON of money in him over 4 years.  If indeed the rumors are true that he doesn't want to be in Minnesota, it wouldn't surprise one bit that he and the front office milk this thing for all its worth and then figure out a timely divorce in 2016 when he only has one year left on his deal.

 

Well, that doesn't help much now.

[jorgenswest]

 

Breaking News...........

 

Trevor Bauer pitches 6 no hit innings with 11 strikeouts for Cleveland today....... but he walked 5 and threw 111 pitches. After a concerned call from Terry Ryan to Chris Antonetti, it has been decided Trevor will be optioned to the AAA Columbus Clippers to work on his control.

.......................                                                                 

In addition

 

Bauer would never have put on the major league roster as a Twin. His walk rate in AAA, AA and overall was higher than Meyer's.

[tobi0040]

In addition

 

Bauer would never have put on the major league roster as a Twin. His walk rate in AAA, AA and overall was higher than Meyer's.

He came to the Indians as a top 10 prospect at 21 who had already pitched in the big leagues.

 

He started in aaa, had a bb rate in the mid 5's. Was promoted. Was really bad. Then demoted to aaa. He had a bb rate under 3 and was then put back on the Indians.

 

If Meyer had a bb rate in the 4 or 5 range this year he pitches for the twins.

[jorgenswest]

He came to the Indians as a top 10 prospect at 21 who had already pitched in the big leagues.

He started in aaa, had a bb rate in the mid 5's. Was promoted. Was really bad. Then demoted to aaa. He had a bb rate under 3 and was then put back on the Indians.

If Meyer had a bb rate in the 4 or 5 range this year he pitches for the twins.

The Twins had two opportunities last year.

 

Pelfrey was injured early. At the time Meyer had 5 starts and walked 3.7 per 9. The Twins went with Deduno. It was a small sample but Cleveland brought up Bauer in a small early season sample and Bauer's long term track record was worse.

 

They had an opportunity again in early June when it was clear that Deduno wasn't an answer. At that time Meyer had an ERA of 3.30 and a walk per 9 of 4.0. Again they passed him up for someone like Darnell or Johnson.

 

I don't see how anyone can give the Twins a pass on this. It is too hard to find guys that throw 100+. He is going to struggle. Bauer did. Clevelands patience with his struggle at the major league level is paying off.

 

There is no reason the Twins can't exercise that same patience on a team that was and is going nowhere.

 

What do they have to lose? He is old enough. He has a lot of innings in AA and AAA. It is time.

[jokin]

 

The Twins had two opportunities last year.

Pelfrey was injured early. At the time Meyer had 5 starts and walked 3.7 per 9. The Twins went with Deduno. It was a small sample but Cleveland brought up Bauer in a small early season sample and Bauer's long term track record was worse.

They had an opportunity again in early June when it was clear that Deduno wasn't an answer. At that time Meyer had an ERA of 3.30 and a walk per 9 of 4.0. Again they passed him up for someone like Darnell or Johnson.

I don't see how anyone can give the Twins a pass on this. It is too hard to find guys that throw 100+. He is going to struggle. Bauer did. Clevelands patience with his struggle at the major league level is paying off.

There is no reason the Twins can't exercise that same patience on a team that was and is going nowhere.

What do they have to lose? He is old enough. He has a lot of innings in AA and AAA. It is time.

 

Excellent post, precise analysis on how the first half season was proceeding for Meyer.  The Twins excuse at the time was that they were looking for "more consistency", but of course they had no intention of ever calling him up, the plan all along was actually just to get him to the end of August in AAA healthy and then shut him down.

 

I'd only add a few words to your last line:

 

"He is more than old enough.   He has a lot of innings in AA and AAA, with nothing left to prove- competition-wise.  It is past time to get him to the Twins.

[glunn]

 

 I have stated my case and will go back to making sure I avoid engaging a moderator, for I do not hope to make you angry and suffer consequences I might disagree with. I support your having and expressing your opinion.

 

As head moderator I can assure you that moderators never use their powers as moderators to persecute anyone who disagrees with them or even taunts them.  Most of what we do involves trying to convince a handful of TD members to refrain from personal attacks and trolling.

 

I have enjoyed your debate with diehard and I learned from each of your posts.  One of your posts came off as somewhat sarcastic, and other than that I think that you have contributed to the discussion, as has diehard.  

 

My heart agrees with you -- maybe Mayer might be like Santana and blossom in a spot start then go on to win rookie of the year.  My heart loves your argument.  But my brain agrees with diehard -- pitchers usually fare worse when they come up and it will be easier for Meyer to fix his mechanics without the added pressure of the show.  

 

MAYBE the synthesis of these two positions is that some  minority of pitchers have a propensity to catch fire when they hit the show, and the only way to find out is to call them up.  Then the issue would be whether it might damage a pitcher psychologically to get called up and fail miserably.  That's why I like the idea of a last minute spot start, so that there will be less disappointment if he walks a lot of batters and/or gets shelled.

[jokin]

 

 

 

MAYBE the synthesis of these two positions is that some  minority of pitchers have a propensity to catch fire when they hit the show, and the only way to find out is to call them up.  Then the issue would be whether it might damage a pitcher psychologically to get called up and fail miserably.  That's why I like the idea of a last minute spot start, so that there will be less disappointment if he walks a lot of batters and/or gets shelled.

 

There's a 3rd way, a method that worked well for Johan Santana as well as some current Cardinal SPs.  Get him up here in low leverage relief situations, particulaly in apparently another year where the W-L record will be unimportant.

[nicksaviking]

pitchers usually fare worse when they come up and it will be easier for Meyer to fix his mechanics without the added pressure of the show.  

This could be very true, but if it is, I'd like to find out, because pitchers who don't fare well under pressure don't tend to produce good results when it matters most.

 

Also, isn't the organization's best pitching coach, who specializes in Meyer's weakest pitch, the change up, with the big club?

 

With his performance this year, it's becoming increasingly difficult to defend Meyer, but if the MLB product is going to be wretched for a fifth straight year....