Kyle Gibson's Rare Valuable Talent

[jorgenswest]

Interesting article from Beyond the Box Score.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/4/4/8338029/twins-kyle-gibsons-rare-valuable-talent-ground-balls-pop-ups

[TheLeviathan]

It's also ridiculously rare for this organization right now.

[JB_Iowa]

Not only interesting but comprehensible for those of us not much into metrics.  Thanks for the link.

 

Hope Gibson can maintain.

[jimmer]

If I remember correctly, Fangraphs is going to incorporate infield flies induced into their FIP equation starting this season. which will make Gibson look better if he can maintain this skill.  They feel that infield flies are converted into outs at such an incredibly high percentage across the league that it really isn't an out that is dependent on any defensive skill.

 

'Rosenheck’s work argues (and, to be fair, others have made the point as well) that infield pop ups are essentially fielding independent as well. No major league team is “better” or “worse” at turning pop ups into outs – for all intents and purposes, they’re *always* outs. This makes them look a heck of a lot like strikeouts – they’re nearly always outs, and runners usually can’t advance on them. The fact that a pitcher’s infield fly% isn’t as stable as his K% just makes them more akin to home run rates.'

[SwainZag]

I've behind the wheel of the Gibson bus for awhile.  Year 3 after TJ surgery, 1st year he went 150 combined innings and got his first taste of ML action.  His sophomore year he improved across the board, including K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 but wore down in mid-August and September where his control waivered and he got harder than the rest of the season.  I really think we see a better Gibson this year than last year.

[jimmer]

 

I've behind the wheel of the Gibson bus for awhile.  Year 3 after TJ surgery, 1st year he went 150 combined innings and got his first taste of ML action.  His sophomore year he improved across the board, including K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 but wore down in mid-August and September where his control waivered and he got harder than the rest of the season.  I really think we see a better Gibson this year than last year.

well, as the attached article said, he's not exactly young.  Now would be nice for him to throw it into high gear if he has a higher gear.

[SwainZag]

 

well, as the attached article said, he's not exactly young.  Now would be nice for him to throw it into high gear if he has a higher gear.

 

Very true, he's an interesting case study because of that TJ surgery though.  At age 27, he isn't exactly ancient.  For him to turn the corner he is going to need to miss some more bats because 5.4 K/9 is pretty putrid.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Fascinating article. That IFFB situation is the type of thing that is missed by most stats but looks to be a repeatable skill, at least to some extent. It's interesting that Gibson is such a groundball-heavy pitcher but can turn to another pitch and create essentially the exact opposite effect.

[jimmer]

'While we can pretty confidently say that Gibson will remain a ground ball pitcher, we don't know that the popups will remain. Matt Klaasen's work with correlations has illustrated that the latter statistic fluctuates a lot, with a measly .422 year-to-year correlation.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Very true, he's an interesting case study because of that TJ surgery though.  At age 27, he isn't exactly ancient.  For him to turn the corner he is going to need to miss some more bats because 5.4 K/9 is pretty putrid.

He won't need to miss many more bats to turn the corner.

 

If Gibson can strike out seven guys per nine, he's basically Brandon Webb with slightly less groundball tendencies. That doesn't make him good, that probably makes him one of the best pitchers in the league.

 

We can't apply the same strikeout thinking to groundball pitchers. If Gibson has even a respectable strikeout rate, that makes him a very good pitcher because groundball guys don't need to miss bats as often as their flyball counterparts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

'While we can pretty confidently say that Gibson will remain a ground ball pitcher, we don't know that the popups will remain. Matt Klaasen's work with correlations has illustrated that the latter statistic fluctuates a lot, with a measly .422 year-to-year correlation.

Dude... The very next sentence is:

 

"Then again, Gibson has some basis for this, skill-wise. His four-seam fastball, which he threw 19.5% of the time in 2014, induced a popup in an incomparable* 15.8% of all balls in play."

 

Followed by:

 

"Gibson utilized his four-seamer entirely differently than he did any other pitch, and he uncoincidentally saw entirely different results from it. Sure, it didn't get him too many ground balls — 40.5% worm burners, only marginally better than average — but the weak contact he generated from avoiding the zone compensated for that. If he continues to execute in this manner, the infield fly balls shouldn't disappear."

[jimmer]

 

Dude... The very next sentence is:

 

"Then again, Gibson has some basis for this, skill-wise. His four-seam fastball, which he threw 19.5% of the time in 2014, induced a popup in an incomparable* 15.8% of all balls in play."

SOME basis for this skill.  Assuming he continues that.

 

Until we see him do it again and get the same results we won't know how repeatable it was.  Cause right now we have year, not year to year ,data. I have faith that he will be able to buck the trend though. Hopefully it's not an outlier situation.We have to take into account Neil Allen's influence this year with the changeup emphasis. How will that affect things.

[jimmer]

Happy Easter, BTW.  We have a baseball game that counts today.  Not a Twins game, but a game.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I have faith that he will be able to buck the trend though. Hopefully it's not an outlier situation.We have to take into account Neil Allen's influence this year with the changeup emphasis. How will that affect things.

I have no idea what to expect from Neil Allen past "he likes changeups". It's going to be an interesting study throughout the season.

[jimmer]

 

I have no idea what to expect from Neil Allen past "he likes changeups". It's going to be an interesting study throughout the season.

Indeed. 

[stringer bell]

I sit right behind SwainZag on the Gibson bus. I have thought since his TJ that he could develop into the type of ace that Webb was or perhaps become Doc Halladay lite. These findings further increase my hope. Gibson also will get himself a few outs from his athleticism off the mound. He seems to make more good plays covering first than the rest of the staff combined.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Gibson's minor league K rates would suggest that he could improve a little in that area in the majors, even if that rate never became really dominant.

 

I have minor but legitimate worry about a scenario where Gibson roughly holds steady this year, the Twins need room for May and/or Meyer at mid-season, Nolasco and Milone are unmovable, and Gibson gets traded and takes the envisioned big step forward while pitching somewhere else.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Gibson can strike out seven guys per nine, he's basically Brandon Webb with slightly less groundball tendencies. That doesn't make him good, that probably makes him one of the best pitchers in the league.

League average K/9 for Webb's leagues was like 6.7, and Webb was at 7.3.

 

League average K/9 for Gibson's league is now 7.7.  Gibby would need to be at 8 or more to be Webb's equivalent in that department.

 

Not that Gibson can't be good at 7 K/9, but I don't know that he'd be Webb level.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, Eduardo Nunez says Gibson's infield fly tendencies are hardly "rare"

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

League average K/9 for Webb's leagues was like 6.7, and Webb was at 7.3.

 

League average K/9 for Gibson's league is now 7.7.  Gibby would need to be at 8 or more to be Webb's equivalent in that department.

 

Not that Gibson can't be good at 7 K/9, but I don't know that he'd be Webb level.

I didn't think the disparity between the two eras and leagues was that large but yeah.

[SwainZag]

 

He won't need to miss many more bats to turn the corner.

 

If Gibson can strike out seven guys per nine, he's basically Brandon Webb with slightly less groundball tendencies. That doesn't make him good, that probably makes him one of the best pitchers in the league.

 

We can't apply the same strikeout thinking to groundball pitchers. If Gibson has even a respectable strikeout rate, that makes him a very good pitcher because groundball guys don't need to miss bats as often as their flyball counterparts.

 

Ok, maybe I worded that wrong, but if minor league numbers before his injury and the increasing K rates between 13 and 14, I wouldn't be surprised for him to move closer to the 6.5 K/9 range, or maybe it's just blind optimism.  Either way, minus 50 IP last season was essentially his rookie year.  I think we have a lot to look forward to.

[Hrbowski]

Gibson is the only home grown starter this team has, also.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ok, maybe I worded that wrong, but if minor league numbers before his injury and the increasing K rates between 13 and 14, I wouldn't be surprised for him to move closer to the 6.5 K/9 range, or maybe it's just blind optimism. Either way, minus 50 IP last season was essentially his rookie year. I think we have a lot to look forward to.

That's fair. I think it's reasonable to expect marginal improvement from Gibson this season. Personally, I don't expect anything dramatic but just a bit more consistency from start to start could pay big dividends over the course of a season.

[ashbury]

 

Also, Eduardo Nunez says Gibson's infield fly tendencies are hardly "rare"

Now I REALLY want Nunez to be acquired by some other team, preferaby AL, so that we can be treated to an occasional epic battle between the irresistible force and the movable object.

[SwainZag]

 

That's fair. I think it's reasonable to expect marginal improvement from Gibson this season. Personally, I don't expect anything dramatic but just a bit more consistency from start to start could pay big dividends over the course of a season.

 

If he could limit those 5 or less innings with 5+ run outings to say....3 or 4 instead of 8 like he did last year, that alone would pay dividends.

[Lonestar]

 

I have no idea what to expect from Neil Allen past "he likes changeups". It's going to be an interesting study throughout the season.

I am optimistic that Allen would read this kind of analysis and do something with it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Gibby's minor league K rate was right around 8. I think he can bring that up a bit from 5.7. I do think Gibson will take a nice step forward this season.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

In mid March Gibson was showing a few added ticks to his fastball velocity, that he seemed to be excited about. Any reports on whether he was able to sustain the velocity increase through his final three spring starts, or was it it just short lived?

 

Also, is Gibson less valuable to a team like the Twins, who have bad defense in both the OF and most likely the IF too? Seems to me that he better increase his K/9 at least a little, or he could struggle with this defense behind him.