Is Nolasco Guaranteed as SP?

[strumdatjaguar]

I don't get it.  Other than the fact that the Twins are paying big bucks to him, what is the reason to consider Ricky No-fastball as a certainty as one of four starters (Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Nolasco)?  To illustrate here is a hypothetical situation involving veterans:  Nolasco struggles in Spring Training, while Mike Pelfrey and Tommy Milone shine (and presume May, Meyer, Stauffer don't earn an SP job).  If the #4 and #5 spots are open, why shouldn't Pelfrey and Milone be given the spots?  I personally think that the only ones who get any slack are Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes.  Otherwise, there should be competition for the other 3 spots.  Tell me why I'm wrong!

[Seth Stohs]

Yes, as long as he is healthy, he will be in the rotation. Yes, the contract is a big part of it, but so is his long track record of being a pretty solid starting pitcher. 

[Kwak]

 I think there were two Nolascoes last season:   the first changed to adopt a cutter as the breakng ball (`ala Hughes) and he got hammered;  the second replaced the cutter with a curveball (which I believe was what he used before he became a Twin), and the second Nolasco had improved results which were similar to those before being a Twin.  Thus, I believe we will see improved results from him in 2015.

 

Oh yes, that contract means he is in the rotation come April.

[jorgenswest]

If healthy, I would give him 10 starts to show he is a league average pitcher. If he has an ERA close to 5, release him and invest the starts in arms with upside.

 

It could be an expensive lesson that signing a decline phase pitcher to a long term contract can have disastrous results. It is particularly risky when that pitcher was below league average throug his prime and has no room for decline.

 

Santana doesn't have much room for decline either.

[nicksaviking]

I don't like that he's a given, but his salary makes it so, so no need to gnash our teeth about it.

 

To be honest though, had Nolasco bombed with say Cleveland last year and the Twins picked him up on a buy low deal this off season, we'd probably be pretty excited right now expecting a bounce back from our shiney new lotto ticket we would be penciling into the rotation.

[DocBauer]

Well, other than injury or just complete and utter suckage...yeah...he has a spot reserved. And he should. And not just because of he contract. Nolasco has been a solid, reliable ML SP in his career. His peripherals are solid, his W-L record not bad, despite pitching for some pretty poor teams, and has had a few really solid seasons in the past as well. (with solid teams, but go figure, good results when pitching for a solid team)

 

People really need to get off Nolasco's proverbial back. If he had pitched to his normal standards last season, and then been hurt for his second season, all we'd be hearing now is how good and deep the Twins rotation should be with Hughes and Santana and Gibson and a return to health and form by Nolasco. My goodness, where do we put all our young starting pitchers? But because he signed a contract, and dared to get hurt in his first year and ruin optimism, he's suddenly a bum who should be discarded and a waste of money.

 

If anything, we should be encouraged by his healthy return, not only for the sake of our beloved Twins, but because with May and Meyer and Berrios here and on the way, a productive Nolasco will pad the win column and then prove tradable for an asset or two while making room for one of the kids. (and shaving money off the payroll to perhaps be used elsewhere) So put away your voodoo dolls, and break out your rabbits feet and 4-leaf clovers and root for a healthy Nolasco in 2015.

[DocBauer]

Now, at the risk of sounding like a complete hypocrite...and I'm not, just looking at worse case scenarios... let's just say Nolasco, for whatever reason, is a mess or stinks up the joint in '15. Is it just me, or do you get the sense that the Twins would trade him for a bag of balls, or even just outright release him, to make room for a talented youngster, where in the past, they may have stubbornly held fast and hoped?

[Seth Stohs]

If healthy, I would give him 10 starts to show he is a league average pitcher. If he has an ERA close to 5, release him and invest the starts in arms with upside.

 

It could be an expensive lesson that signing a decline phase pitcher to a long term contract can have disastrous results. It is particularly risky when that pitcher was below league average throug his prime and has no room for decline.

 

Santana doesn't have much room for decline either.

 

It's taken me 3-4 years, but I'm starting to get people to agree with me that signing free agents to long-term contracts hardly ever works...

 

That said, he and Santana both have very strong backgrounds and credentials over time. Definitely need to be given more time. I don't think 10 starts is a point in which he gets released. Way too soon. I just don't know what the right number is or how they go about it. 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

It's taken me 3-4 years, but I'm starting to get people to agree with me that signing free agents to long-term contracts hardly ever works...

 

I think I agreed with you - well always.  Having said that, the team had no choice whatsoever but to make the moves they did.   Our best case scenario is that Nolasco remains serviceable when the team returns to competitiveness - hopefully next year.  

 

Frankly the Nolasco investment is modest compared to the albatross around Detroit's neck with the Verlander contract.  

[stringer bell]

I share Doc's hypocrisy... let's call it ambivalence about Nolasco. He has a track record of being pretty good and very durable. However he has has himself to blame, probably hiding an injury and giving indications that he was unhappy in Minnesota. He can get back in Twins' fans good graces with good performance and keeping his love for LA and displeasure with Minnesota weather to himself.

[Halsey Hall]

Nolasco has lost alot of weight since last year.  Hopefully he's taking this more serious this time around. 

[jimmer]

He is absolutely guaranteed a spot in the rotation,

[Physics Guy]

It's taken me 3-4 years, but I'm starting to get people to agree with me that signing free agents to long-term contracts hardly ever works...

 

If you are the President of that club, I'm pretty sure jorgenswest is the VP.

[big dog]

If you are the President of that club, I'm pretty sure jorgenswest is the VP.

And the late Carl Pohlad was the Treasurer!

[h2oface]

It's taken me 3-4 years, but I'm starting to get people to agree with me that signing free agents to long-term contracts hardly ever works...

Hey........ signing anyone to a long term contract hardly ever works!

[Dantes929]

Hey........ signing anyone to a long term contract hardly ever works!

I'm usually in that camp but the alternative is to sign almost no one that has service time and has been any good at all either homegrown or free market.   I hope Nolasco does well.    If Pelfrey earns the 5th spot I hope he does well also.    Just I am hoping May or Meyer gets it.

[JB_Iowa]

Ricky says he feels good.  Hughes says Nolasco's sinker was one of the best he has seen:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/02/25/twinsights-ricky-nolasco-feels-lot-better-twins-debut-season/

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's taken me 3-4 years, but I'm starting to get people to agree with me that signing free agents to long-term contracts hardly ever works...

"Hardly ever" seems like a massive overstatement.

 

Going back to 2011 (when it became clear that the Twins needed SP reinforcements), looking at free agent SP signing 3+ year contracts, I see the following 9 which have worked out more or less just fine (some of them great):

 

Buehrle

Sanchez

Greinke

Lohse

Guthrie

Hughes

Garza

Vargas

Wilson

 

And I see only the following 3 failures so far (although all of them still have multiple seasons to rebound):

 

Nolasco

Jimenez

Jackson

[Lazarus]

If we remember the scenario 18 months ago, the Twins had zero starting pitching (maybe less than zero) and had attracted zero interest from any average or better free agent the prior year. Pohlad had said the team was under no spending constraints but no free agent wanted to come here since there was zero chance of competing for a playoff spot for a couple of years minimum. We can debate whether the offer was too high, but at the time the only way to get a free agent to sign that had any track record was to make a premium offer to overcome their reluctance to come here. So Nolasco probably received an extra $1-$2 million per year over what he was likely worth if he signed somewhere else (based on his track record prior to last year). Hughes signing was different due to his lack of a successful track record.

 

I don't see any way the Twins will DFA Nolasco during the first half of a 4 year contract. Later in 2016, it could be possible - but no way he is DFA'd before then. If he doesn't bounce back, the best-case scenario is trading him for the proverbial bag of balls, with a rosin bag to be named later. Or DFA Pelfrey and make Nolasco your long reliever.

[kab21]

The problem with saying that FA's on long term contract don't work out is that you end up with a cheap team that does well in wins/dollar spent but still isn't very good.  Nolasco hasn't worked out but it's hardly conclusive evidence that the team should have continued to operate with a <75M payroll. 

 

At some point teams have to spend money and one of the few places that teams can spend money is on FA's.  This is especially true of teams that developed very few expensive arb eligible players that could be getting extensions.  The key in FA is to get a decent value when you spend the money and so far Nolasco has done nothing.  At the end of the day if you don't spend the money it's gone.  Now I would have preferred that the Twins had jumped at exploiting the int'l draft loopholes like other teams but it's unlikely that they would have done that even if they hadn't signed Nolasco.

 

The only thing that Nolasco needs to do to keep his spot in the rotation is to not be completely awful or injured.  Despite being awful last season he has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in the rotation.  May and Meyer will get their chances this year regardless of Nolasco and I think May will win the #5 spot.

[jorgenswest]

Hey........ signing anyone to a long term contract hardly ever works!

It works better when players have space for decline. Those guys cost a lot more money than Nolasco. Tthey would need to take the Nolasco, Santana and Pelfrey money and sign one guy with space to decline. Fill the other spots with younger upside players.