To be .500 or better our starters need:

[KirbyHawk75]

My thoughts are: 

 

Ricky Nolasco:

ERA:  3.75 or lower

WHIP:  1.32-1.25

Wins:  15 

 

Ervin Santana:

ERA:  4.00 or lower

WHIP: 1.25 or lower

Wins:  14 or more

 

Phil Hughes:  

ERA: 3.50 or lower

WHIP:  1.25 or lower

Wins:  16 or more

K/BB Ratio:  8.0 or better

 

Kyle Gibson:

ERA:  4.00 or lower

WHIP:1.3 or under

Wins:  12 or more

 

 

 

 

[Craig Arko]

I think they collectively need to be .500 or better.

[Brock Beauchamp]

My thoughts are:

 

Ricky Nolasco:

ERA: 3.75 or lower

WHIP: 1.32-1.25

Wins: 15

 

Ervin Santana:

ERA: 4.00 or lower

WHIP: 1.25 or lower

Wins: 14 or more

 

Phil Hughes:

ERA: 3.50 or lower

WHIP: 1.25 or lower

Wins: 16 or more

K/BB Ratio: 8.0 or better

 

Kyle Gibson:

ERA: 4.00 or lower

WHIP:1.3 or under

Wins: 12 or more

If that happens, the Twins would be better than .500.

 

You just accounted for 57 wins from four starters.

[DocBauer]

First, flip Nolasco and Santana's ERA.

 

Second, flip Nolasco and Santana's win totals. Santana is the better overall pitcher, with all due respect to Nolasco, who is very consistent in his career-yearly numbers. But Santana has better overall stuff and is the more dynamic of the two. Wins are very difficult to project...though I try my best to do so...as they are so dependent on defensive, offensive, bullpen and luck/fortune support. However, that being said, unless the Twins defense, offense, bullpen and luck/fortune betray him, Santana could win anywhere from 14-17 wins.

 

Forgetting the fact that I'm hoping Nolasco pitches well enough to be excellent trade bait by the all-star break...and I think that's very, very possible, thus opening up a slot for another young pitcher for the future build...were Nolasco on the team for the entire season, were he also not betrayed, he could win 12-14 games as the Twins #3 SP.

 

Now to #4, I'm a big believer in Gibson. As previously stated, it's easy to love the success of a pitcher when he's "on". After all, isn't everyone good when "on"? But while Gibson was a little Jekyll/Hyde last season, when he was the "doctor" he was borderline dominate in just about every start. (at least the ones I watched/listened to/read about) He was a rookie last season, and damned impressive the majority of the time. A little more consistency, and I think he becomes the Twins #3 SP. I know it's asking a lot for a player or pitcher to raise their game to a 10% greater efficiency in one year, in this case rookie to second year, but if he learned enough, improved enough, could find enough consistency to do so, he'd be looking at 197 IP with a 4.023ERA and 1.179WHIP and .232OppBA and 118-51 SO/BB. After winning 13 games last season, he could be in the 15 win area.

 

Then you hope for at least 8 and possibly as many as 12 wins from May/whoever as your 5th starter.

 

I'm looking for Hughes to progress and regress slightly here and there, but build on last season, and basically he same level/quality of pitcher. Now, whether that means an overall better Twins team in '15 gives him 2+ more wins, or poor luck and support drops him down -2 is hard to say. But color me an optimist!

 

The scary thought is...none of this is really outlandish.

[TheLeviathan]

.....a better defense.

[DocBauer]

.....a better defense.

And you and I have both agreed and blogged on this very subject. So there is no disagreement there.

 

And I STILL maintain it's not too late for TR to do something about CF to help this team out!

 

But tickle me pink or color my glasses rose, I feel pretty good about every other position. Honestly! I like Suzuki behind the plate, and have hope for Pinto until someone better comes along. (is 2016 too early for Garver and/or Turner?) I like Mauer at 1st, love Dozier at 2B and Plouffe at 3B, and like Escobar and the potential of Santana at SS.

 

Arcia...IMHO...doesn't suck. But he's inconsistent. I still think it's a mistake to move him from RF to LF, but Ryan, Molitor and others may just be smarter than all of us on this, and it just might work out. I do know Arcia has gotten at least a little better defensively over time. And Hunter...well...I give him high marks for confidence he can do the job. But I have to say, smarts and experience DOES count for something. And even if he is no thoroughbred any longer, he at least knows how to track and play a ball. (not to mention knowing what base to throw to!)

 

Don't be surprised still, I say, to see a Hunter and Arcia LF/RF swap. I think when it comes time to actually play the games, you might see it happen.

 

Regardless, I like the INF defense, I don't believe the OF corners will kill us, but I still have a real, real concern about CF.

 

Is it just me, or does anyone else...besides us...see this as being a potential linch-pin to the upcoming season?

[ashbury]

with a 4.023ERA and 1.179WHIP

Give or take.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

And you and I have both agreed and blogged on this very subject. So there is no disagreement there.And I STILL maintain it's not too late for TR to do something about CF to help this team out!But tickle me pink or color my glasses rose, I feel pretty good about every other position. Honestly! I like Suzuki behind the plate, and have hope for Pinto until someone better comes along. (is 2016 too early for Garver and/or Turner?) I like Mauer at 1st, love Dozier at 2B and Plouffe at 3B, and like Escobar and the potential of Santana at SS.Arcia...IMHO...doesn't suck. But he's inconsistent. I still think it's a mistake to move him from RF to LF, but Ryan, Molitor and others may just be smarter than all of us on this, and it just might work out. I do know Arcia has gotten at least a little better defensively over time. And Hunter...well...I give him high marks for confidence he can do the job. But I have to say, smarts and experience DOES count for something. And even if he is no thoroughbred any longer, he at least knows how to track and play a ball. (not to mention knowing what base to throw to!)Don't be surprised still, I say, to see a Hunter and Arcia LF/RF swap. I think when it comes time to actually play the games, you might see it happen.Regardless, like the INF defense, I don't believe the OF corners will kill us, but I still have a real, real concern about CF.Is it just me, or does anyone else...besides us...see this as being a potential linch-pin to the upcoming season?

Arcia might be ok in left. I do not like Hunter in right, or resting on the CF laurels. Hunter will probably not hit well enough to justify how poor his fielding will probably be. If Hunter were a coach, I'd be less pissed, but only a bit. I think the 2 statues in the corners will continue to multiply the pain of poor CF play.

However I agree that the infield looks to be a pretty good fielding/hitting combination. I hope Plouffe and Dozier build on 2014 and Mauer shows some fielding prowess and his hitting bounces back. I'm less enthusiastic about Suzuki, but I think he will be serviceable.

 

Edit: it's not just you

[Twodogs]

If four of the Twins starters are around 15 wins each as you have listed the Twins would win 90 and probably be in the running for winning the Central.

[stringer bell]

Nolasco needs to get double digit wins, Gibson needs to win as much as last year, but pitch more innings. Santana and Hughes need about 30 wins and 400 innings between them. Finally, the fifth starting position needs to win about a dozen games. Even with a sub-par bullpen, I believe that would put the Twins above .500.

[Twodogs]

Wow!  The Giants had two pitchers in double digits last year,  one had 18 and the other had 12.  The Royals had 4 pitchers in double digit wins and none of them had 15, not even Shields he had 14.  The Dodgers with their out of this world pitching staff had 4, granted Kershaw had 21 and Grienke had 17. But still if the Twins Staff has all 5 rotation spots in double digit wins the Twins will be in the World Series, not just fighting to get to .500.  All of this is also predicated on whether or not the Twins will score enough runs to help these pitchers out.  I think the lineup could be good, but there are a lot of variables in there expecially with a lot of these guys aka Vargas, Santana, etc... going on basically their second seasons and first full seasons in the bigs.

[Twodogs]

Don't get me wrong, I hope it happens. 

[stringer bell]

To clarify, I don't expect any one pitcher in the #5 spot of the Twins' rotation to get to double digit wins. I would expect that the combination of Milone, Pelfrey, May and Meyer will combine to win double digits. Last year, the #5 spot won only five games or so IIRC and the next spot (Correia and his replacements) didn't do too well, either. It is a lot to expect a total turnaround from 3/5 of the rotation, but there are lots of candidates and it will be up to Molitor and Allen to make the right choices on who gets the opportunities.

[mikecgrimes]

ESPN fantasy rankings have our starting pitching ranked #21,67,107,139,182,188, of course the back end may be rated lower because those 6 guys don't include May Meyer or any other prospect, and even 5 or 6 starts from either of those guys is going to cut into the potential stats for either Milone or Pelfrey.  Nolasco comes in at 182, I don't play fantasy baseball, but if I did I would love to get a guy like him as the 182nd starting pitcher taken.

[jimmer]

Most fantasy sites value pitcher stats that aren't necessarily great indicators of pitcher's performance, like Wins and ERA.  

 

And another stat that they value strikeouts, we aren't exactly great at.

 

So it's not surprising our fantasy SP rankings would be lower than the actual skill of the pitchers themselves.

[gunnarthor]

To be .500 our starters need:

 

Hughes and Gibson need to combine for 64 starts and 8 WAR again.

Santana and Nolasco need to combine for 50 starts and 5 WAR.  (That would be a 3 WAR improvement over Nolasco/Correa).

 

Our 5th starter would have to make 20 starts at 2 WAR (a 1 WAR improvement over May/Pino last year)

Our 6th starter would have to make 18 starts at 1 WAR (a 1.5 WAR improvement over Pelfrey/Swarzak/Milone/Darnell last year)

Our 7th starter would have to make 8 starts at 1 WAR (a 1 WAR improvement over Deduno last year)

 

Something in that neighborhood would get the Twins to roughly .500 or maybe a little better.  Obviously the Santana/Nolasco part is key (as is health in general).  They both have the track record where a combined 5 WAR isn't out of the questions and if Nolasco struggles, his starts could be replaced by Meyer, for instance.  

 

A .500 team needs roughly 33-35 WAR.  Twins had 30 by fangraphs last year, 24 by B-R.  So they'd need a 5-10 improvement depending on your version.  

[jimmer]

 

A .500 team needs roughly 33-35 WAR.  Twins had 30 by fangraphs last year, 24 by B-R.  So they'd need a 5-10 improvement depending on your version.  

Yes, but only if we figure we'll get exactly the same performance we did last year from everyone and that replacement level remains the same.  Unfortunately, some will do better, so will do worse. Can't just say we got this last year and only have to add X amount. 

 

And I know you aren't necessarily saying that, it's just that some will make that error.

[gunnarthor]

Yes, but only if we figure we'll get exactly the same performance we did last year from everyone and that replacement level remains the same.  Unfortunately, some will do better, so will do worse. Can't just say we got this last year and only have to add X amount. 

 

 

 

Well, sure.  But this thread was about what our starters needed to do. Hell, the starters could all go backwards and the team could still reach .500 if the offense explodes.  (Replacement level isn't going to change significantly for back of the napkin measurements like this).  

[Steve Lein]

My thoughts are: 

 

Ricky Nolasco:

ERA:  3.75 or lower

WHIP:  1.32-1.25

Wins:  15 

 

Ervin Santana:

ERA:  4.00 or lower

WHIP: 1.25 or lower

Wins:  14 or more

 

Phil Hughes:  

ERA: 3.50 or lower

WHIP:  1.25 or lower

Wins:  16 or more

K/BB Ratio:  8.0 or better

 

Kyle Gibson:

ERA:  4.00 or lower

WHIP:1.3 or under

Wins:  12 or more

 

If we have 4 starters with 12 or more wins, I think that's a team in a pennant race, not just .500!

 

The Twins had only 2 starters that went over 10 wins last year. After them the highest win total was 6.