Article: On Phil Hughes And Regression

[Shane Wahl]

One thing to keep in mind, and maybe I am peculiarly aware of this since I had Phil on my fantasy team back in his early days (thinking I was all smart in grabbing him early in drafts), is that Hughes was touted as being the kind of pitcher we saw in 2014 back 8 years ago. Things went astray and sometimes the talent just is really there but doesn't translate to the field for whatever reason (I maintain that he was never a guy to succeed in New York, in general). That changes all talk of "regression" somewhat.

[Shane Wahl]

Also, Chris Parmelee should have smacked the bejesus out of that ball . . . 

[ashbury]

His GCTWTG percentage

[jimmywill4]

While I enjoyed the read, "regression" is more of a adjective or label placed I would put on everyday players. Everyone loves to get caught up the numbers now days, metrics this metrics that, but you still have to throw a round ball and hit it with a round bat. Mechanics are as number 45 has shown extremely important, just check out video of Vance Worley since he left. 2 video's you posted though Parker are 2 different pitches. 1st vid you can see he overthrew it, trying to bust inside and became out-front, out of balance. 2nd vid very controlled, cutter that froze hitter, excellent pitch. Number 45 gained a lot of the biggest factor for pitchers and that's confidence and his stats show this. Will he regress to bad mechanics? I'm on the side he wont and will live up to extension.

[Parker Hageman]

Also, Chris Parmelee should have smacked the bejesus out of that ball . . .

 

Eh...Parmelee likes the ball down.

 

 

2 video's you posted though Parker are 2 different pitches. 1st vid you can see he overthrew it, trying to bust inside and became out-front, out of balance. 2nd vid very controlled, cutter that froze hitter, excellent pitch.

 

 

I feel like I have to address this every time I post two clips: they are representative of the sample as a whole. These two were chosen because of the same venue (providing the same camera angle) and situation (from the stretch). Both are excellent pitches. The first example is indicative of what clips show from his 2013 season -- erratic mechanics, pulling off line, dropping low with his body. The second clip shows a more controlled delivery as has been the case thorough the 2014 season and staying back/taller. 

[Linus]

Gives Chance To Win The Game.

 

Regardless of stats, when he took the mound last year we had a really good chance to win the game.  I expect that to be roughly the same next year regardless of the metrics.  Not to be simple about it but, he has good stuff, throws strikes and attacks enough that he will always strike out a decent number of hitters (hopefully when there is a man on third).

 

I also think that regression won't be caused by him slipping into old habits.  The changes he made were in spring training and he was pretty consistent over 200 innings - that's no flash in the pan.

 

Oh, by the way.....thanks for asking Ash.

[Parker Hageman]

Gives Chance To Win The Game.

 

 

Add it to the law firm:

 

[jimmer]

Gives Chance To Win The Game.

 

Regardless of stats, when he took the mound last year we had a really good chance to win the game.  I expect that to be roughly the same next year regardless of the metrics.  

He didn't give the team a chance to win regardless of the stats or metrics.  The metrics/stat tell us that he did just that.All the metrics/stats tell us is how well he was able to do that.  It's not like the metrics/stats say he was horrible but he still somehow managed to keep us in the games so there's really no conflict there. 

 

If anything, I'd say some of the simpler stats, like quality starts (and quality start percentage) didn't do him justice when talking about how well he kept us in games, even though many point to that stat when determining whether or not a SP gave his team a chance to win.

Edited January 14, 2015 by jimmer

[Linus]

He didn't give the team a chance to win regardless of the stats or metrics.  The metrics/stat tell us that he did just that.All the metrics/stats tell us is how well he was able to do that.  It's not like the metrics/stats say he was horrible but he still somehow managed to keep us in the games so there's really no conflict there. 

 

If anything, I'd say some of the simpler stats, like quality starts (and quality start percentage) didn't do him justice when talking about how well he kept us in games, even though many point to that stat when determining whether or not a SP gave his team a chance to win.

Its OK - I'm not dissing metrics; I think they are useful and interesting.

[Shane Wahl]

Also, can the Twins just hire Parker to provide these kinds of analyses on a weekly basis for them? It's amazingly stellar.

[nytwinsfan]

No, because that would compromise his journalistic integrity.  Plus they can read them here for free!

 

Also, can the Twins just hire Parker to provide these kinds of analyses on a weekly basis for them? It's amazingly stellar.

Edited January 14, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[Parker Hageman]

Also, can the Twins just hire Parker to provide these kinds of analyses on a weekly basis for them? It's amazingly stellar.

 

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/cut.gif

[tobi0040]

In addition to the psychology, I think his numbers in the new Yankee stadium make his 2014 look like a bigger abberation.

 

Prior to last year, I looked at his ERA outiside of Yankee stadium, it was just over 4.00.  Much better than his career 4.50 ERA at the time.

 

His career road numbers, 3.79 ERA, .249 BA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.5 K per 9, 2.42 BB per 9

[Craig Arko]

I think it's about 5 weeks until pitchers and catchers report. Can't wait.

[TheLeviathan]

Gives Chance To Win The Game.

 

Finally!  A metric Gardy can get behind!

[Linus]

I almost included a Gardy reference in my post.  I was hearing him when I was typing it.

[ashbury]

Gives Chance To Win The Game.

...

 

Oh, by the way.....thanks for asking Ash.

Every Costello needs his Abbott to set things up.

[nicksaviking]

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/cut.gif

 

I'm not sure which awards show that is taken from.  Are you suggesting the Twins hire Paul DePodesta who Jonah Hill portrayed in Moneyball, or the guy he portrayed in The Wolf of Wall Street?

[tobi0040]

In addition to the psychology, I think his numbers in the new Yankee stadium make his 2014 look like a bigger abberation.

 

Prior to last year, I looked at his ERA outiside of Yankee stadium, it was just over 4.00.  Much better than his career 4.50 ERA at the time.

 

His career road numbers, 3.79 ERA, .249 BA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.5 K per 9, 2.42 BB per 9

 

To expand on this, here is a comp, career road numbers vs. 2014.  Granted some of the road numbers were in 2014:

 

Career Road Record      3.79 ERA,  1.22 WHIP, .249 BA, 7.5 K per 9, 2.42 BB per 9, .7 HR per 9

2014 Stats                      3.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP,  .265 BA, 8.0 K per 9, .7 BB per 9, .7 HR per 9

 

The only glaring differences are BB per 9 and WHIP.  But the numbers overall are relatively similar.  If the K rate and HR rate stay the same and he keeps an improved BA rate.....he could come close to repeating 2014 IMO.

 

In roughly the same amount of innings, he has given up 87 HR at home and 41 at home. 

[ashbury]

I'm not sure which awards show that is taken from. 

Painstaking research¹ reveals it to be the 2012 Oscars.

 

^{1_{Meaning, I googled for 45 seconds and made the call}}

[diehardtwinsfan]

Finally!  A metric Gardy can get behind!

I'm not sure Gardy would score well in this particular metric...

[Thrylos]

I was just looking at those delivery gifs (great job, as usually, btw) and look at the way he finishes with his back leg.  He jerks his foot and twists his back big time and my initial thought was that it just cannot be good for his back.  Did a bit of research and bingo:  Looks like he herniated a disc in 2004, aggravated it in 2011, was DTD with a "stiff back" in 2012, and was in DL with disc issues in 2013.   So being healthy in 2014 has allowed him to pitch more.

As far as regression goes:  There were 2 drivers towards his 2014 success:  BB% and HR%.  Those were the major outliers from his 2013 raw numbers.  If he continues his locating the strike zone (maybe because of the mechanics) that BB% can still be in the ballpark, but the driver for the HRs was his 6.9% HR/FB, which might regress towards the average 10%.   On the other hand, Hughes did what he did with a .324 BABIP (thanks to the Twins' Defense) which will hopefully regress itself and cancel the HR/FB regression.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I was just looking at those delivery gifs (great job, as usually, btw) and look at the way he finishes with his back leg. He jerks his foot and twists his back big time and my initial thought was that it just cannot be good for his back. Did a bit of research and bingo: Looks like he herniated a disc in 2004, aggravated it in 2011, was DTD with a "stiff back" in 2012, and was in DL with disc issues in 2013. So being healthy in 2014 has allowed him to pitch more.

As far as regression goes: There were 2 drivers towards his 2014 success: BB% and HR%. Those were the major outliers from his 2013 raw numbers. If he continues his locating the strike zone (maybe because of the mechanics) that BB% can still be in the ballpark, but the driver for the HRs was his 6.9% HR/FB, which might regress towards the average 10%. On the other hand, Hughes did what he did with a .324 BABIP (thanks to the Twins' Defense) which will hopefully regress itself and cancel the HR/FB regression.

I think the BB rate has to regress. The HR rate... Well, it'll probsbly land somewhere between his 2014 season and his old AL East/Yankee Stadium numbers.

 

As you said, all of that could be offset by a reduction in BABIP. I think Hughes will continue to be good, though I'm not sure how good. He could easily repeat 2014 or he could slide toward 100 ERA+ territory. Neither would surprise me.

[jimmer]

This was interesting to go back and read, both the article (and it's conclusions) as well as the discussions about the conclusion.

 

What was the unexpected change, if any, that had Hughes results revert back to what he was before 2014?  Should we expect a bounceback this year?

Edited October 11, 2015 by jimmer

[Mike Sixel]

Was it tinkering with his FB type mix? Two vs four seamer, for example?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Was it tinkering with his FB type mix? Two vs four seamer, for example?

I think there's a good chance that played a part but the guy was down 1-2mph on his fastball for the season. I don't think he was right most of the year.

 

Of course, multiple factors probably came into play. Was he changing his pitch selection due to coaching or was he changing pitch selection because his arm wasn't right? I don't know.

[Mike Sixel]

I thought we read that we changed it because he thought it would help him improve. I found it odd that he'd do that, given his success the previous year. But, I may be remembering that incorrectly.

 

And yes, multiple things were in play. I just want him to be between the two years in terms of effectiveness (well, I want him to be like Kershaw, but I'm trying to be realistic here).

[Willihammer]

So, did Hughes' mechanics stay contstant this year? Or did he revert back to drop and drive?

[Parker Hageman]

I think there's a good chance that played a part but the guy was down 1-2mph on his fastball for the season. I don't think he was right most of the year.

 

Of course, multiple factors probably came into play. Was he changing his pitch selection due to coaching or was he changing pitch selection because his arm wasn't right? I don't know.

 

 

The change from four-seam to two-seam came because he said his four-seamer (the one he used most of the year last year) was not effective. 

 

“Obviously with my two-seamer I want to be down in the zone but I feel like I haven't been able to effectively live up in the zone with my four-seamer as much as I have been in the past,” Hughes said of his body of work during strikeout situations. “Again, small sample size and I feel like I'm not really in a groove right now but hopefully when I start getting on a roll, you will start to see more riding four-seamers up in the zone and then getting some two-seamers down if I have to but my bread-and-butter is living up and that something I've always done but right now I've gotten burned a few times on pitches that I've tried to go up on the corners that I've just left over the plate. As my confidence with my four-seamer starts to pick up, you'll see more of those up in the zone.”

 

 

This was from a discussion in May about his pitch selection and it became apparent soon enough that an injury was one of several reasons he was finding his fastball ineffective. He also lost his cutter, one of his best pitches in 2014, and that made his fastball that much more effective. 

 

If he can get his health back -- which means improved velocity and command -- no reason to not see a better year in 2016 out of Hughes. 

[Mike Frasier Law]

I think this explains a lot:

 

Average pitch speeds:

2013/2014/2015

Fastball 92.3/92.0/90.7

 

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/7450_P_FA_20150930.png