Mackey: Are the Twins Spending Enough Money?

[Seth Stohs]

1500 ESPN's Phil Mackey wrote up a tremendous article on the Twins payroll situation. He does a great job comparing Twins GM Terry Ryan to the Cubs' Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer combination. 

 

 

Two general managers have followed similar strategies over the past three years, yet one has received praise while the other is viewed as incompetent by a large segment of the fan base.

 

He also discusses other topics that are often asked by some fans, like addressing the topic of the new stadium and revenues, and much much more.

 

Check it out and discuss. 

[Brandon]

The difference is Theo Epstein admitted up front he was doing a rebuild and Terry Ryan did not.  That's where the frustration comes from saying one thing while doing another.  With that said there is no one I would rather see in charge of the Twins then Terry. 

 

Though on the spending money thing I do think the Twins could have spent the money to get Neshek for the pen on a 2 year 12 million deal.  Yes its a little much but we do have the payroll space and a need for relievers and it is a short term contract. 

[nytwinsfan]

Mackey has a good overall point, but notably missing from his discussion is the Hunter deal, which nobody can convince me Epstein would EVER have made. I don't love the Santana deal, but I don't hate it either. In fact, I probably mildly like it. I agree it is analogous to the Lester deal, and probably actually better. But the Hunter deal is just bad. After the Santana signing, with a little luck, and the signing of a good outfield defender, we could be a .500 team this year, with the outside possibility of more. Instead, all of our pitchers will have an ERA about .50 higher than they should, because our outfield defense will be the worst in all of baseball. Yes, Hunter excites the fanbase. But another thing that excites the fanbase is winning, and not having bloated ERAs based on terrible defense. I don't even care about the money they spent on Hunter. I care about the playing time that could be used for someone like Colby Rasmus, or Eddie Rosario, or any number of other free agents with decent or good outfield defense. So Mackey is right that overall Ryan has done a decent job, especially at drafting and overseeing the scouting of young talent. But to say he is the equivalent of Epstein is a stretch.

[nytwinsfan]

The other difference is that Chicago doesn't have 3 stud young pitching prospects waiting in the wings like the Twins do, so signing Lester was a necessity. While again, I don't mind the Santana signing, it does create a possible logjam problem that Chicago won't run into with Lester. That being said, if Ryan is willing to force Nolasco or Santana to pitch out of the pen in their 3rd and 4th contract years (or trade them, if that is possible) then this shouldn't be a problem. But I'm not sure I trust him to do that, and I can see the Santana signing delaying Meyer, May, and Berrios developments, at least on the margin.

[Mike Sixel]

Also ignores the Cubs traded high, and the Twins did not on Willingham, or Perkins or Burton or Fien. Also, the Cubs signed starters to one year deals to try to flip them, Twins did not. Also, the Cubs signed expensive international guys, Twins did not. Alao, the Cubs have aggressively promoted players, Meyer was not. Lots of things are very different. Oh, and they paid for an ace, the Twins did not.

[Mike Sixel]

I was merely pointing out the approaches are not identical. No place did I say on this thread what I thought of either.

[jay]

I will never understand expecting the Twins to maintain the spending habits of the Cubs or Yankees. If that is what it takes to be satisfied as a fan, I'd have a hard time saying I was a Twins fan.

 

Separately, of course the Twins and Cubs have not been perfectly identical, that isn't the point. They've both had some successes and failures. Highlighting the Cubs' successes and Twins' failures or personal pet peeves doesn't mean there aren't significant comparisons between the two.

[Bark's Lounge]

I'm not gonna sit here and say, the Twins Front Office is without it's mishandling of situations, like trading a player like Willingham after he hit 35HR's, or a guy like Fien and even Perkins, when there is a chance they will never have as good a season as we now witness in our rearview mirrors.

 

Whether one agrees with Mackey's Epstein/Ryan comparison? It's probably going a little far out there, but it had the steam to make an argument - that should count for something. It was not a ridiculous write-up.

 

The Twins had some bad luck this past season. Sano was lost for the year, Buxton pretty much the same, and Meyer had a set back towards the end of the season.

 

If everything broke right, rather than wrong, maybe the Twins would be in a similar position as the Cubs are right now. The Twins had some tough luck, while things broke right for the north siders. That is how the ball bounces sometimes.

 

I'll take Hughes any day of the week over Arrieta, and Soler looked very good with his cup of coffee, but Baez is anything but a finished project, he looked awful in between his HR's - he has a ways to go. I guess to sum it up, the Cubs still have some work to do... nothing is guaranteed in this game.

 

I will say this - the Twins would never ever have been able to sign Lester, the Cubs have much more money to spend if they chose to do so and they did and the past connections with Lester probably did not hurt.

 

Are the Cubs in a better position than the Twins are right now? Of course they are. If the Twins had some better breaks and did not lose our 2 top prospects to season ending injuries (Buxton played a little), I do believe the 2 franchise would be comparable in terms of high end prospects knocking on the door and ready to have an impact during the 2015 season.

[Boom Boom]

The only thing more predictable than fans complaining that the Twins are cheap is Phil Mackey complaining about fans complaining that the Twins are cheap.

 

For a guy who says he's sick of that line he sure brings it up a lot.

[ashbury]

If I had a nickel for every time someone complained about Mackey complaining about... oh well.

[SwainZag]

Also ignores the Cubs traded high, and the Twins did not on Willingham, or Perkins or Burton or Fien. Also, the Cubs signed starters to one year deals to try to flip them, Twins did not. Also, the Cubs signed expensive international guys, Twins did not. Alao, the Cubs have aggressively promoted players, Meyer was not. Lots of things are very different. Oh, and they paid for an ace, the Twins did not.

 

To be fair Hicks, Santana, Vargas and even Arcia were all promoted pretty aggressively.  Yes, the Twins were and have been patient with some pitching, but they have been fairly aggressive with their offensive players.

 

It's fun to create a trade market for Willingham and rip the Twins for not trading him and for that matter Burton and Fien too.  The only player who had a lot of interest was Perkins at the deadline.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't know -- when you have that bad of a starting staff for 2-3 years running, that's not good, even if you're rebuilding.  TR did virtually nothing to address a very shaky starting staff heading into 2012, then tried to address it as cheaply as he could in 2013, until the situation was so bad that a phenomenal season from Hughes in 2014 wasn't enough to lift us from the bottom.

 

Also, I like that Epstein was proactive from the get-go -- signing Soler from Cuba, trading for MLB ready Rizzo, acquiring multiple new interesting pitchers each year.  TR more or less sat back and made his draft picks, and traded for a couple minor league pitchers a few years away (plus damaged goods Worley).

 

And I feel like TR let the Gardy/Andy show stagnate a bit too long -- the Cubs had their own issues with Dale Sveum but moved on from him after just two poor seasons.  Not to mention the reliance on player reunion tours.

 

TR is stepping up his game on the spending front the past two winters, for sure.  It will be fun to finally judge his free agent acumen.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, count me among those that doesn't think this comparison of approach is real accurate.  My problem is not with the fact that Ryan is rebuilding, my problem is with HOW he rebuilds.  He basically limits himself to one avenue of improvement and ignores many others.

 

Epstein does not appear to have that problem.

[Willihammer]

 

Adding another $10 million would only move the needle so much.

Santana isn't a franchise-altering signing, and neither was Hughes, despite how well he pitched. Baseball is a game of incremental improvement, and the best players in the game are only worth 6, 7 and 8 Wins Above Replacement.

Clearly teams are more than the sum of their WAR. The World Series champs evidence that. Last year, 76 wins and nowhere near the playoffs. They went out and got Tim Hudson and Mike Morse, two players who combined for 2.7 WAR in 2014. Meanwhile, Cain got hurt. Lincecum went from bad to worse - two draft products. As a team, the Giants WAR actually dropped by 1.4 in 2014, and yet, they won 12 more games and the World Series.

 

This notion of incremental improvement is such an oversimplification. Nothing is static in baseball. Iinjuries happen, players get better, players get older, players get worse, players get smarter, players get concussed, coaches change, philosophies change, umpires change, etc. Way too many other variables to just tally the previous year's win total, add x-projected WAR of FA y, and say "the money for this guy won't move the needle. Not worth it." Rubbish. Get the best players you can, every year. Give yourself the best chance, every year. Then play the games and see what happens.

[The Wise One]

I love the sell high comments people make. Which bullpen arm is the strikeout machine other than Perkins. Selling a Twins' bullpen arm would net you a Dustin Martin. Willingham have value after a big season. Which GM did not know his injury history? If he is healthy and you need a bat in the middle of the season he has value. As a cornerstone on a 2 year contract I really doubt he had value beyond say a soft tossing left hander. Collect too many of them and you lose them in rule v

 

Epstien signed Edwin Jackson to a 4 year contract, Nate Shierholtz to a 2 year contract, Scott Bakertfor 5 mil, Fujikawa for 9. Yep That Epstien/Hoyer duo do not sign bad contracts.

 

Hunter on a one year deal. What other outfielder out there would their defense be so great as to ofset an anemic bat?

[jay]

Get the best players you can, every year. Give yourself the best chance, every year. Then play the games and see what happens.

That sounds wonderful, but I don't buy it. The Marlins seem to be doing some of that in selling off their farm system to get whatever they can. The White Sox consistently do that and have marginal results to show for significantly larger payrolls.

 

There has to be balance.

[Seth Stohs]

Yeah, count me among those that doesn't think this comparison of approach is real accurate.  My problem is not with the fact that Ryan is rebuilding, my problem is with HOW he rebuilds.  He basically limits himself to one avenue of improvement and ignores many others.

 

Epstein does not appear to have that problem.

 

how is that even true? Limits himself to one avenue? First focus was through player acquisition via trades (getting Meyer and May and Worley)... Then they altered their draft focus the last several years as well, continuing to take high upside, toolsy prep players (which they've had a LOT of success with) and now more hard-throwing pitchers. They have always been ahead of the curve signing players internationally outside of DR, VZ, but now they're a strong player in those markets as well. They've tried Japan (and it didn't work). They were at least at the table in Korea. They've always done pretty well with minor league free agents. They're generally active in the Rule 5 draft. And now since Terry Ryan's return, they've been active in the free agent market. Two $50M pitchers the last two offseasons and Hughes at $24M. No, it's not $100-150M pitchers, but who would advocate that?!

[diehardtwinsfan]

Clearly teams are more than the sum of their WAR. The World Series champs evidence that. Last year, 76 wins and nowhere near the playoffs. They went out and got Tim Hudson and Mike Morse, two players who combined for 2.7 WAR in 2014. Meanwhile, Cain got hurt. Lincecum went from bad to worse - two draft products. As a team, the Giants WAR actually dropped by 1.4 in 2014, and yet, they won 12 more games and the World Series.

 

This notion of incremental improvement is such an oversimplification. Nothing is static in baseball. Iinjuries happen, players get better, players get older, players get worse, players get smarter, players get concussed, coaches change, philosophies change, umpires change, etc. Way too many other variables to just tally the previous year's win total, add x-projected WAR of FA y, and say "the money for this guy won't move the needle. Not worth it." Rubbish. Get the best players you can, every year. Give yourself the best chance, every year. Then play the games and see what happens.

If anything, this tells me there's a problem with WAR.

[diehardtwinsfan]

how is that even true? Limits himself to one avenue? First focus was through player acquisition via trades (getting Meyer and May and Worley)... Then they altered their draft focus the last several years as well, continuing to take high upside, toolsy prep players (which they've had a LOT of success with) and now more hard-throwing pitchers. They have always been ahead of the curve signing players internationally outside of DR, VZ, but now they're a strong player in those markets as well. They've tried Japan (and it didn't work). They were at least at the table in Korea. They've always done pretty well with minor league free agents. They're generally active in the Rule 5 draft. And now since Terry Ryan's return, they've been active in the free agent market. Two $50M pitchers the last two offseasons and Hughes at $24M. No, it's not $100-150M pitchers, but who would advocate that?!

About the only thing they didn't do is chase after Cubans... Might have been his biggest mistake though too...

[Otto von Ballpark]

how is that even true? Limits himself to one avenue? First focus was through player acquisition via trades (getting Meyer and May and Worley)... Then they altered their draft focus the last several years as well, continuing to take high upside, toolsy prep players (which they've had a LOT of success with) and now more hard-throwing pitchers. They have always been ahead of the curve signing players internationally outside of DR, VZ, but now they're a strong player in those markets as well. They've tried Japan (and it didn't work). They were at least at the table in Korea. They've always done pretty well with minor league free agents. They're generally active in the Rule 5 draft. And now since Terry Ryan's return, they've been active in the free agent market. Two $50M pitchers the last two offseasons and Hughes at $24M. No, it's not $100-150M pitchers, but who would advocate that?!

Seth, TR has not signed any significant prospects outside the draft or capped international markets in his second term.

 

He also did basically nothing in terms of trades or FA signings his first offseason, other than sign a few older low-interest vets to replace departing low-interest vets.  And actually more of the same in his second offseason, outside the Worley trade.  It's also been over two years since his last trade bringing in a notable piece, and those were mostly minor leaguers multiple years away outside of damaged goods Worley.

 

I also don't think Cubs have rushed a guy to failure like Hicks (twice!), at least not without an obvious fallback option.  Also, I don't think the Cubs have recently cut anyone who immediately succeeded elsewhere like Worley.

 

And also, while TR has started spending significant money the past two winters, the Cubs started that process earlier too.  For as big of a failure as he's been, Edwin Jackson soaked up innings in two rebuilding years and is closer to being off the books or trade/release bait than the Twins two biggest FA signings (Jackson is also still younger than them too).

 

The Cubs also have several strong MLB performers signed long-term already.

 

The Cubs certainly have not been perfect, but they have been much more aggressive in procuring outside talent and locking it up than the Twins -- I am surprised this is even a point of contention.  It's no surprise that they've also been seeing more incremental improvements over the course of their rebuild so far, not like the Twins starting pitching situation, they are younger, and are expected to return to contention sooner.

 

I will grant that the Twins have had some bad luck, probably more than average, but that's the sort of thing that gets compounded by a slow, passive, reactionary approach.  (For more evidence of that approach, see how the Epstein installed a new manager and pitching coach upon taking over, then replaced that manager after just two seasons of progress deemed insufficient.)

 

I am sure you don't prefer elements of this style, but it is very clearly different than the Twins recent approach.

[nicksaviking]

If I had a nickel for every time someone complained about Mackey complaining about... oh well.

 

I'm getting awful tired of you complaining about people complaining about Mackey complaining about fans complaining about the Twins payroll.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I love the sell high comments people make

Part of the Twins problem is they haven't been aggressive enough in acquiring guys with the potential to sell high.  You can't say "we can't sell high with guys like Willingham, Doumit, Carroll, Correia, Burton, Duensing, Swarzak, etc." without acknowledging that was more or less a known downside when we signed them or invested playing time in them.

 

Epstien signed Edwin Jackson to a 4 year contract, Nate Shierholtz to a 2 year contract, Scott Bakertfor 5 mil, Fujikawa for 9. Yep That Epstien/Hoyer duo do not sign bad contracts.

I doubt anyone has made that latter argument, but this list is instructive because it shows how active the Cubs have been.

 

They've also signed/claimed Hammel, Maholm, Feldman, Wada, Villanueva, DeJesus, Hairston, Navarro, Valbuena, Sweeney, Bonifacio, Soler... and these are just the guys off the top of my head who have provided positive performances and/or trade returns for the Cubs.

[Mike Sixel]

No one on this thread has argued the Cubs don't make mistakes......should I list the ones the Twins have made the last few years? That isn't at all the point anyone her is making.......

 

I look forward to the Twins aggressively promoting May, Meyer, Berrios, Buxton, Sano and Rosario this year, not to mention using some of the minors' RP instead of signing veterans that can't be demoted/promoted as needed.

[nicksaviking]

I wasn't a big advocate of a big payroll this offseason as I wanted to put as many players under 30 as possible on the roster.  Still it has been a welcome sight to see Ryan agressive early on both of the last two offseasons.

 

Ryan and Hoyer have been making similar moves, but not the same moves.  Hoyer's (and Epstein) moves do seem intended to push for a rebuild while Ryan's moves seemed intended to inject stability.  Hoyer made a bad long term deal in Edwin Jackson (I also think Lester will not pan out in the long run), but he also bought low on a bunch of known pitching commodities that seemed aimed at soley flipping them at the trade deadline. 

 

Aside from perhaps the first Pelfery contract, all of Ryan's pitching moves seemed to be made for the purpose of adding and keeping veterans in the rotation.  Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled to have Phil Hughes, but for an actual rebuild and restocking of the system, Ryan should have had fewer two year deals to Correia and Pelfrey and more one year deals like the Cubs did with Feldman and Hammel.

 

Also, the Cubs agression in the international market is obviously the opposite approach to the Twins.

[dbminn]

So how many of you would trade the Twins roster and farm system right now for the Cubs system?

[nicksaviking]

So how many of you would trade the Twins roster and farm system right now for the Cubs system?

 

I think most talent evaluators have the Cubs system stronger than the Twins system.

[Major League Ready]

I am glad Mackey continues to write articles with the general theme that it is the fans that often don't understand.  The skillset for managing the P&L and assets for a 9 figure business is a $300K plus job.  Full  P&L responsibility for that type of organization is a $500K plus position and does not happen without considerable credentials. Yet, fans seem to think they know better.  If they had the skillset to know better, they would have the job.  

 

This is not meant to suggest that fans should not be enthusiastic about what they want to the team do.  However, many take a very strong position often with little comparable experience and always with less information than the people making the decisions.  I just don't think it is wise to take an emphatic position that assumes people with better credentials are incompetent, especially given they always have more information. 

 

Most fans are inclined to look at the immediate and that is an extremely poor way to run any organization.  For example, the concept of "just go get the best players you can every year".  That concept IMO is incredibly simplistic and a good way to assure mediocrity.

 

Fans also tend to give far more weight to the best case scenario.  History would suggest that the majority of the long-term deals do not turn out in the BCS.  If FA performance worked out half the time, smaller market teams would have no chance at all.  Swisher and Bourne are good parallel example to the Twins right now.  What if the very real possibility of Nolasco Santana, and Mauer performing at league average or worse by 2016 & 2017 when the Twins should be in position to contend.  We will have roughly $50M tied up in those players.

 

Some make an argument that if you don't get over that fear you are relegated to never participating in free agency.  This is another gross over simplification.  The potential to end up with $50M in dead weight or more probably under performing assets also has to be considered.  IMO, the benefit of Nolasco and Santana is we won't completely suck.  The cost is that payroll could have been allocated to filling the final holes to build a contender.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd argue that relying mainly on prospects, and not acknowledging that many do not work out.....that's betting on the best case scenario. YMMV, of course.

 

Pretty tired of the appeal to authority argument that fans are somehow stupid, btw.

 

there are also negative consequences of doing nothing, but somehow those mistakes are never acknowledged.......like not signing Cubans the last few years.

[Mike Sixel]

So how many of you would trade the Twins roster and farm system right now for the Cubs system?

 

Does that include the three players the Cubs promoted last year? If I could trade the entire systems for each other, MLB team and minor league team, I'd do that.

 

Because I don't care who is winning the "who has the most prospects that might not ever work out" contest, frankly.

[Brock Beauchamp]

But the Hunter deal is just bad.

It's really not. I wouldn't have signed Hunter but a one year deal is rarely a "bad" deal, particularly to a guy who continues to swing a pretty potent bat.

 

Questionable? Yeah. Not the move I'd make? Absolutely. Bad? Nah.

 

If Hunter had been the only move this offseason, I'd be a lot more upset but it's now apparent that Ryan had his eye on adding more pitching and put his resources there instead of the outfield. I don't entirely agree with that decision but the reasoning behind it is sound.