Mets sign Cuddyer

[Mike Sixel]

Methinks if a team gave up a first round pick every year for a 35 year old with injury issues, who has averaged 1 WAR a year over his career.    Sure it is certain that player will be in the MLB this year.  But it is also certain in the long run that will be a terrible team with a very high payroll.

 

And what makes you think they are going to do this every year? Who here said "do this every year", or even every 4 years? 

[Mike Sixel]

Clearly they are not assuming he is worth .75 WAR this year. Isn't that kind of obvious by the signing?

[tobi0040]

 

Clearly they are not assuming he is worth .75 WAR this year. Isn't that kind of obvious by the signing?

 

 

I guess my question for the Mets would be....if a guy has totaled 10.8 WAR over 14 seasons (.77 WAR a year) through ages 22-35. He is now 35 and has missed 190 games over the last three years, why are you forecasting a WAR of more than .75 a year?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuddymi01.shtml?redir

[tobi0040]

And what makes you think they are going to do this every year? Who here said "do this every year", or even every 4 years? 

 

Nobody, but I wanted to highlight this is not a sustainable way to do things. 

[Mike Sixel]

Well, he was not even a part time player the first three years....so you are skewing the calculations. Four out of the last 6 years he's had a WAR over 1.2. I think you might want to re-look at how you are looking at those stats.

[tobi0040]

We were looking at two different things. I was taking the difference between Owar and Dwar. 

 

At the end of the day I think giving a 35 year old with injury issues $20M and giving up the 15th overall pick is a bad idea.  And that is whether he is a 1.2 WAR guy or .75 WAR guy.  Ideally you have a 24-25 year old in your system that can do that.  Two 25 year olds platooning should certainly be able to.

 

Aaron Hicks has a career OPS of .750 against lefties and Arcia has a career OPS around .850 against righties.  So the two of them would have to be at least at 1.2 WAR and that is a $1M commitment and you keep the 15th overall pick.

[jharaldson]

 

I am sure that the Cuddyer has a career total of 15.9 WAR and a 2 year total of 3 WAR according to baseball-reference.

[JB_Iowa]

Maybe it isn't all statistics.

 

Maybe they like those intangibles (magic?) he brings to the clubhouse.  Maybe they like his versatility.  Maybe they think he and Wright will make a good leadership team.

 

Clubs have all kinds of reasons for doing what they do,

 

If it all came down to numbers and probabilities, we could just computerize it but there is still room for "art" in the GM's office, 

[tobi0040]

Maybe it isn't all statistics.

 

Maybe they like those intangibles (magic?) he brings to the clubhouse.  Maybe they like his versatility.  Maybe they think he and Wright will make a good leadership team.

 

Clubs have all kinds of reasons for doing what they do,

 

If it all came down to numbers and probabilities, we could just computerize it but there is still room for "art" in the GM's office, 

 

 

 

I am going with the magic tricks.

[jharaldson]

http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Bgk4b7Wm3sk/maxresdefault.jpg

[biggentleben]

I read a chat by Shoenfeld from ESPN.  He ripped on the Rockies for making Cuddy a QO about four times.  Towards the end, he was asked what was the most surprising QO he saw...he started answering those questions with "other than Cuddyer, my most surpsing was...."

 

Now they got a pick in the mid 40's and the Mets lose their 15th.

 

Comp picks started about 30 last year.  As more teams sign someone and give up their pick, those comp picks move earlier and earlier in the draft.

[biggentleben]

I'm rethinking my disgust......

 

IF Wright is healthy, and Cuddy adds 2 wins, and their SP is a bit better, they could be the lucky Royals team this year. That has to be their thinking. 

 

Except their bullpen is more akin to Hunter Strickland than Wade Davis (if we're using postseason references), so they'd need to dump a ton of money or have a lot of arms take big steps forward.

[biggentleben]

Nobody, but I wanted to highlight this is not a sustainable way to do things. 

 

It is to the Mets.  This is simply how they do business.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The present is always more certain than the future.

The problem is that if you're the Mets, the future quickly becomes the present and you persistently find yourself lacking in decent prospects because you continually look at today's results instead of considering tomorrow's potential you're giving away.

 

The Mets have been "in the present" for about a decade now and it has gotten them absolutely nowhere. Since 2006, the Mets have not won more than 88 games and not lost less than 70. They've been perpetually stuck in mediocrity and a lot of that is due to the fact they keep handing away picks and prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

A lot is due, imo, to bad choices in FA. Of which this might be one.

[JB_Iowa]

Another perspective:

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/overpaying-to-keep-young-talent-111114

 

Grab a free agent early to avoid trading young players already in the system.

[tobi0040]

A lot is due, imo, to bad choices in FA. Of which this might be one.

 

They have certainly whiffed in free agency as well.  But it seems to me they pay a premuim for guys well over 30 in many cases.

 

They gave up first round picks in 2006 (Wagner), 2007 (Alou) , 2009 (K-Rod), and now 2015 (Cuddy).  They have gained several as well during this stretch, but that is the nature of having a bunch of high priced free agents.  These four moves should be analyzed separately.

 

They got 2 good years of out K-Rod, aged 27-29. 

 

They got 2 good years and 2 injured years out of Billy Wagner, ages 33-37.

 

They they got 100 games out of a 40-41 year old Alou over two years.

 

I am guessing each of these guys was paid over $10M a year as well.  Relievers and corner outfielders should be about the easiest to develop, or sign without having to give up first round picks.  They will be out a first round pick in 4 of 10 drafts.

[Dman]

Don't the Mets have a pretty good farm system already?  So if they have guys coming up but need to fill a few holes to bridge the gap then maybe this isn't as crazy as it seems.  If they grab a couple more FA's then maybe they can pull a Baltimore or KC season and keep the guys they have in the farm system.  Yeah it messes them up for one year of top young talent but when you have been mediocre this long maybe you need to try something different.

 

In a vacuum  I agree with the rest of the board that this is bit of a head scratcher.  I have to believe there are other moves to come.

[TheLeviathan]

Only 500 PAs once in three years, dramatic home road splits, 35 years old, bad defender.

 

It'll take a miracle for this not to be a dumb decision.

[USAFChief]

 

 

I guess my question for the Mets would be....if a guy has totaled 10.8 WAR over 14 seasons (.77 WAR a year) through ages 22-35. He is now 35 and has missed 190 games over the last three years, why are you forecasting a WAR of more than .75 a year?http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuddymi01.shtml?redir

Perhaps not many MLB front offices put much stock in something as dubious as WAR.

[tobi0040]

Perhaps not many MLB front offices put much stock in something as dubious as WAR.

 

They apparently didn't look at home/road splits since at Coors field either:

 

2012   .858 OPS at home, .755 on the road

2013   .997 OPS at home, .852 on the road

2014    1.255 OPS at home, .734 on the road

 

What this should scream to them is MLB average corner OF production offensively (when healthy) and of course bad defense and durability.

[Brock Beauchamp]

They apparently didn't look at home/road splits since at Coors field either:

 

2012   .858 OPS at home, .755 on the road

2013   .997 OPS at home, .852 on the road

2014    1.255 OPS at home, .734 on the road

 

What this should scream to them is MLB average corner OF production offensively (when healthy) and of course bad defense and durability.

No big deal, Coors and Citi are pretty much the same thing... right?

[stringer bell]

I firmly believe that WAR does an injustice to Cuddyer. That said, I still am in shock that he got a QO after his injury-plagued season and even more surprised that he took the Mets offer. Could he have waited for the Rockies to match or exceed it? In my book, Cuddyer at this point is a good, versatile right handed hitter with age and injury concerns. I certainly wouldn't have wanted to go more than one year at a time with him. Best of luck to Cuddy in the Big Apple!

[big dog]

The Rockies are to be congratulated for their acumen in extending the qualifying offer, that's for sure.  Lucky or good, looks like it worked out well for a team considering a rebuild.

 

I'll join the group hoping Cuddy has a great year with the Mets, especially if it means they beat the Yankees during Rivalry Week or whatever marketing strategy they use next year.

[Oldgoat_MN]

That money and commitment vs. a 15th pick.

 

I know nothing is certain, but past #15 picks have included:

Stephen Drew

Scott Kazmir

Chase Utley

Jim Rice 

 

and others with career WAR that is pretty significant.

 

This looks like a very bad signing to me. I can't imagine how this board would blow up if the Twins had signed him.

 

That said, I'm happy for Cuddy.