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OF Trade Prospects

Poli_Crandall

By Poli_Crandall
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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Kirby_waved_at_me First Round Pick

Kirby_waved_at_me

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

If Seattle wanted Arcia, who would they have to add with Saunders to get him? A pitching prospect? Looking at Seattle's roster, it seems foolish for them to shop Saunders, since they need Outfield bats...  They are in a kind of similar postion as Minnesota, but without having Buxton and Sano in the wings.

tobi0040 Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

tobi0040

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Add what to Arcia to get back Saunders and Walker? There has been talk they'd trade Walker for hitting.

 

Not getting Walker without Sano or Buxton.  Just not happening.

diehardtwinsfan Minnesota Twins

diehardtwinsfan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Saunders definitely has a 'buy low' potential to him. Not a bad get, though I think trading Kepler is a similar sell low move. Kepler really put it together near the end of the season, and I'd like to see if he can re-establish himself in AA.

 

The problem I see is that Seattle doesn't match well with Minnesota. If Seattle wants OF bats now, then trading Saunders seems odd since he's a decent corner bat with above average defense (when he's on the field). What I kind of wonder is if a guy like Taylor Rodgers or Tyler Duffey might net a quasi decent prospect at this point. They have low mileage arms due to being relievers in college, throw reasonably hard, and could be mid-rotation arms. But with guys like Meyer, May, Gibson, and Berrios, there isn't much room in the rotation for them.

jorgenswest St Paul Saints

jorgenswest

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Through age 24 Saunders had a slash line of 196/263/306 for an OPS+ of 60 in 635 plate appearances. Following that dismal start he had an OPS+ of 108, 106 and 128 through age 27. The 128 may be his peak.

 

Aaron Hicks through age 24 is at 201/293/313 for an OPS+ of 69 in 538 plate appearances.

 

Instead of trading a prospect for Saunders, why not just develop our own guy?

Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Through age 24 Saunders had a slash line of 196/263/306 for an OPS+ of 60 in 635 plate appearances. Following that dismal start he had an OPS+ of 108, 106 and 128 through age 27. The 128 may be his peak.

 

Aaron Hicks through age 24 is at 201/293/313 for an OPS+ of 69 in 538 plate appearances.

 

Instead of trading a prospect for Saunders, why not just develop our own guy?

Because not all 69 OPS+ hitters through age 24 become 110 OPS+ hitters at age 25?

 

I know nothing about Saunders and would not necessarily recommend a trade for him or casting aside Hicks quite yet, but one of my pet peeves is applying somewhat dramatic/unlikely development paths to your own players as if they are standard/inevitable.

tobi0040 Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

tobi0040

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Because not all 69 OPS+ hitters through age 24 become 110 OPS+ hitters at age 25?

 

I know nothing about Saunders and would not necessarily recommend a trade for him or casting aside Hicks quite yet, but one of my pet peeves is applying somewhat dramatic/unlikely development paths to your own players as if they are standard/inevitable.

 

Agree on the dramatic/unlikely paths.

I would give Hicks another half year at least to see if he can break through.  If not he becomes your 4th OF/platoon against righties where he has a .750 OPS and can likely provide valuable defense in the corner.

Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Saunders definitely has a 'buy low' potential to him. Not a bad get, though I think trading Kepler is a similar sell low move. Kepler really put it together near the end of the season, and I'd like to see if he can re-establish himself in AA.

If you are not willing to deal Kepler, a modest corner outfield prospect very far from MLB, for an average to above MLBer at a position of need, you're basically never going to be willing to deal a prospect ever.

 

Would be interesting to see how other teams value Kepler at this point.

James Richter College Ball

James Richter

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

If Seattle wanted Arcia, who would they have to add with Saunders to get him? A pitching prospect? Looking at Seattle's roster, it seems foolish for them to shop Saunders, since they need Outfield bats...  They are in a kind of similar postion as Minnesota, but without having Buxton and Sano in the wings.

I live in Seattle, so I get a pretty close look at the Mariners. They are in big-time win-now mode, and ownership was OK with going over-budget last year since the investment resulted in increased attendance. Their MLB pitching could not be more set. They need offense from SS, a replacement corner OF for Saunders, and above all, DH. They've already got plenty of lefty bats in the lineup, and probably wouldn't want to add another unless he didn't have much of a platoon split. Historically, Jack Z hasn't been awesome at getting back good value in trades.

 

I think they'd take Pinto straight-up for Saunders. He could mostly DH and sometimes back up Zunino. Escobar would probably get him, too. If they wanted Arcia, maybe Saunders + Carson Smith, a Michael Tonkin-type MR they called up in September. They would certainly be interested in Vargas or Santana, and either of them would probably get us Saunders and one or more of their top-10 prospects.

 

Not advocating any moves here, just trying to estimate costs.

jay First Round Pick

jay

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

Arcia is way too much for Saunders. Kepler seems reasonable. Maybe even Rosario (similarly embattled) or Pinto (only if the Twins can't see him staying at C).

Kirby_waved_at_me First Round Pick

Kirby_waved_at_me

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Pinto for Saunders is pretty interesting - now that Gardy is gone, though, I feel like Pinto has a better chance of getting more at bats for the Twins.

 

I agree, though, if the Twins aren't going to give Pinto at bats, might as well trade him for a guy they will put in the lineup.

sthpstm College Ball

sthpstm

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

While perhaps not as exciting as Saunders, I think Alejandro De Aza may be a better target for the Twins this year. He had a down year so the asking price may be low; his career OPS is .730; he plays a decent LF; and he can run.  He seems like a consistent, reliable guy that could help stabilize the OF till the young guys are ready. 

ashbury GOAT

ashbury

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Matt Kemp's name came up in another thread, and I thought I'd bring my response over to here instead:

 

diehardtwinsfan, on 16 Nov 2014 - 2:39 PM, said:

 I'd rather have Kemp in left who can play above average defense

 

I'm not able to take this assessment of his defense as a given.  When a star gets moved out of CF, it's often after enough degradation that it's open to question whether he even can be average in left or right anymore.  Here's an article with video that goes into depth about his defensive chops, and it's not complimentary.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/matt-kemps-wish-is-a-pitching-staffs-nightmare/

 

Some of the video looks nearly Willinghamesque (though in fairness he moves better than the Hammer did at the end).  I give guys credit for playing through injury/rehabilitation, if that's what's being shown here, but then I also give Willingham credit for guts (bad back etc) without calling him a good defensive player.

 

The numbers aren't kind to Kemp's defense, but there's not consensus here that state-of-the-art numbers count for anything even yet. 

 

I'd prefer an unbiased professional scout's opinion more than the Fangraphs page I linked to above, but didn't find one with a little bit of searching.  I did find Kemp's self-assessment as of last May, here: 

http://nesn.com/2014/06/matt-kemp-red-sox-trade-wouldnt-benefit-boston-despite-offensive-woes/

 

“I just need to play better defense,” Kemp said last month, according to ESPN.com. “I’ve been bobbling balls, not getting as good a jump as I need to. … My legs are getting stronger and stronger, but I did come off microfracture surgery. I wish I was as explosive as before. I’m not hurt or anything, but you have those good days and bad days...."

 

I'm not saying Kemp's defense is below average going forward, but I'd like some reassurance if I'm being asked to believe it's above.

old nurse Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

old nurse

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Blockbuster time? Arcia, Pinto, and May or Meyer for Walker, Saunders, and Hicks (AAA catcher).  I would start out offering Aaron Hicks and another prospect rather than Arcia, but if they are in win now mode it might not do it.

tobi0040 Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

tobi0040

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Blockbuster time? Arcia, Pinto, and May or Meyer for Walker, Saunders, and Hicks (AAA catcher).  I would start out offering Aaron Hicks and another prospect rather than Arcia, but if they are in win now mode it might not do it.

 

If Seattle is in win now mode, they aren't trading Taijuan Walker.   In 53 IP, he has a 2.89 ERA and 46 K.  Only 22 years old, he will be part of the winning.  He is a much better than Meyer or May.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Seattle's pitching is very good to great....they need hitting. Trading Walker for hitting and lesser pitching is exactly what a win now team would do, unless there is a FA they love.

iTwins Draft Eligible

iTwins

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Pinto for Saunders is pretty interesting - now that Gardy is gone, though, I feel like Pinto has a better chance of getting more at bats for the Twins.

 

I agree, though, if the Twins aren't going to give Pinto at bats, might as well trade him for a guy they will put in the lineup.

 

Bingo. If Gardy was still here, I'd be all over this hypothetical move. Pinto for Saunders is a trade I think both sides would agree to - BUT - if Molitor is actually going to let Pinto play, I'd rather keep him.

nicksaviking MVP

nicksaviking

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

Are we all talking about the same Michael Saunders? The one in Seattle can't get on base consistantly and only once posted an OPS over .740 which happened last year while playing in only half his games because he can't stay healthy.  That abbreviated season was also the only time in the last three years he posted a postive UZR if people are looking at him to upgrade the OF defense.

 

Don't forget a contending team is looking to trade him because they think his offseason workout habits are "lackidasical."  It seems like the Twins haven't had the best track record with injury prone players who's offseason work habits are called into question.  27 isn't an old player normally, but it seems pretty old for a guy who gets back and shoulder injuries.

 

I'd give them Duensing.  That's it.

ashbury GOAT

ashbury

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I'd give them Duensing.  That's it.

So you'd start by offering them nothing, and then throw in Duensing at the last minute to sweeten the deal? :)

nicksaviking MVP

nicksaviking

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

So you'd start by offering them nothing, and then throw in Duensing at the last minute to sweeten the deal? :)

 

If they want to play hardball, Swarzak is my final offer.

tobi0040 Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

tobi0040

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

It was rumored hard over the weekend, but I didn't want to believe it.

 

A trade was talked about on here for Heyward, of course the proposals that were thrown around were slightly less than Shelby Miller.

biggentleben FCL Twins

biggentleben

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

A trade was talked about on here for Heyward, of course the proposals that were thrown around were slightly less than Shelby Miller.

 

No, I'm talking about on Braves sites and on Twitter.  That's where the Miller for Heyward rumors were all over this weekend.  I figured there'd be more with Miller to pull off Heyward, but Walden is a throw in that the Braves were wanting to dump for virtually anything they could get.

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