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OF Trade Prospects


Poli_Crandall
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I would quite confidently wager that Arcia is going to be a much more impactful hitter than Heyward.  The defense is an obvious, lopsided matter in favor of Heyward however.

 

I'd take that wager.  I think the bias has run the other direction when that gets to be the conversation.

 

Say what you want about Heyward's overall production and about they psychology behind the game, but Heyward is very obviously a hitter who does best when put in a batting order position and left there. He's also done what's asked of him in different positions in the batting order, including most of last season when he was asked to level his swing as the leadoff hitter in the order.  Last year was only the second season he's been given even 400 PA in the same batting order position in a season, and the other was his rookie 2010 season.  He's asked to move to the middle of the lineup, and I think if Justin Upton stays in town, a 3-4-5 of Freeman, Upton, and Heyward could be quite impressive in 2015.  Those who watch Heyward can tell you it's there when he's allowed to go at the at-bat in his own way, but he's been so messed with up to this point.

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Never, never, never, never, never trade young, potentially high end starters for outfielders.  It is much easier to train an outfielder than to come up with God-given pitching talent.  If Berrios or Meyer were 5 or 6 years from the majors and the Twins were one player away from a world championship, then maybe.  That's not the case here.  Think Garza for Young.  Not the right direction. 

 

As far as OF'ers go, the potential is there.  Arcia hit 20 homers this year, Hicks showed improvement at the end of the year and might be able to be turned around, Rosario and Kepler are hitting in the AFL, Santana will be fine in CF or at SS, and if Buxton can stay healthy, he'll be great.  Molitor needs to put together a coaching staff who can improve these guys.  Early in his career, Molitor was injured a lot. Put him in a room with Buxton to explain that while it's nice to go full blast on defense, if it keeps putting you in the hospital, you're not helping the team.  With his speed, going 3/4 time will save injuries and keep him on the field.

This, a thousand times.  Starting pitching, especially good starting pitching is the best currency there is and the most fundamental factor in the short and long term success of any franchise.  Trade it at your peril.....which is why I was adamantly apposed to the Delmon Young trade, even straight up much less throwing in Bartlett for nothing.  Few corner outfielders are worth a good, young pitcher.

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Is Meyer good? He couldn't even scratch out one appearance on the worst SP staff in baseball, not even after rosters expanded. If he's so good, why didn't that happen at all?

 

I'd not deal him right now for Hayward, but that's because I think he is good, but you wonder what the Twins are thinking about him at this point. It's not like he's 22 years old either.

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Is Meyer good? He couldn't even scratch out one appearance on the worst SP staff in baseball, not even after rosters expanded. If he's so good, why didn't that happen at all?

 

I'd not deal him right now for Hayward, but that's because I think he is good, but you wonder what the Twins are thinking about him at this point. It's not like he's 22 years old either.

He was hurt after the rosters expanded.  Prior to that, well, that debate has been waged here extensively.  I think he will be in our rotation next year, maybe even out of spring training - I like him a lot and think is a big piece of the puzzle.

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Braves need hitters, they can't hit the broad side of a barn. They also need plate discipline. They have a solid SS prospect in Peraza, but he doesn't have much plate discipline (Altuve-esque approach).

 

26th in Batting Avg

4th in batter strikeouts

27th in OPS+ (1 pct off dead last)

 

With the same team that was one of the most productive teams in the NL last year.  The hitters just need to produce.  The Braves are really not looking for more hitting this offseason.

 

Peraza also is a 2B and has played there for a full season now.  The system has a ton of middle infield depth.  Ozhaino Albies has been referred to as the positional Julio Urias, who jumped from playing at a level above what his age suggested to one of the best prospects in baseball this year.

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Meyer only, not a chance.  Meyer AND Berrios might get you into discussions.

 

And if the Twins didn't make the move of Heyward for Meyer, they're idiots, frankly.

 

Heyward had a 5.6 WAR season last year and was still a dissapointment at the plate....2.8 WAR offense and defense.  He is about to be paid pretty well and I think it would be silly to move multiple key pitching prospects for him.

 

Frankly, I don't really see the need for Atlanta to trade the guy at all.

Edited by tobi0040
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Heyward had a 5.6 WAR season last year and was still a dissapointment at the plate....2.8 WAR offense and defense.  He is about to be paid pretty well and I think it would be silly to move multiple key pitching prospects for him.

 

Frankly, I don't really see the need for Atlanta to trade the guy at all.

 

I don't see why they would at all, which is why he'll require a huge return in order to get him out of a Braves uniform.

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With the same team that was one of the most productive teams in the NL last year.  The hitters just need to produce.  The Braves are really not looking for more hitting this offseason.

 

Peraza also is a 2B and has played there for a full season now.  The system has a ton of middle infield depth.  Ozhaino Albies has been referred to as the positional Julio Urias, who jumped from playing at a level above what his age suggested to one of the best prospects in baseball this year.

 

I'm not sure what you mean by "productive"...(?) W-L wasn't bad 79-83, but they were still 17 G behind the Nationals, who had the only winning record in the Division.

 

They were 2nd to last in runs scored (573), only the Padres (535) were a worse team when it came to putting runs on the board.

 

Great pitching though.

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How about Nolasco to the Dodgers for Either?   I would even eat part of Nolasco's contract. 

 

I don't think Nolasco for Ethier is a fit.  The guy is owed $16M a year for three more years and has a vesting option for another year.  he will be 33 next year.  Last year he had a .9 oWAR and -.8dWAR.  Not the type of OF help we need.

 

And this is a deal that makes us even thinner in the rotation and we have to go out and pay free agent dollars just to get back to square one.  I think for better or worse, Ricky is here and about the best thing that can happen is he gets back to the guy he was before last year.  That would help us more than Ethier IMO.

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I got the impression Heyward's extension talks fizzled at about the time the Braves extended Freddie Freeman while at the same time it was being reported they weren't offering Heyward a deal in the same ballpark.

 

The Twins may be able to sign him long term, but one shoud probably assume it would take an offer similar to Freeman's, which was 8 years $135 million.  How comfortable are people with that considering they'd also have to give up top end prospects?

Edited by nicksaviking
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I got the impression Heyward's extension talks fizzled at about the time the Braves extended Freddie Freeman while at the same time it was being reported they weren't offering Heyward a deal in the same ballpark.

 

The Twins may be able to sign him long term, but one shoud probably assume it would take an offer similar to Freeman's, which was 8 years $135 million.  How comfortable are people with that considering they'd also have to give up top end prospects?

 

On a scale of 1 to 10, about 0. 

 

I think signing John Lester for $135M makes more sense than a corner OF, and I wiill keep Sano, Meyer, and Buxton.

 

I think we need to keep sight of the actual problems. Starting pitching and outfield defense.  OF defense seems like it could be fixed for a heckuva lot less than that.

Edited by tobi0040
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Heyward may be traded, but it would be for a top 5-10 prospect in all of baseball just to get the conversation started.  If a Braves outfielder is moved for something akin to the OP package, it'd be BJ Upton.  That grouping likely won't get you in the door for Heyward or Justin Upton, both of whom the team would listen on for the right trade package, but I have a feeling that package would include a Buxton/Sano to start the discussions.  May not take one of those guys to get the deal done if the deal was something like Meyer AND Berrios and some other pieces for Heyward, but basically think of Heyward as the Braves' Hershel Walker, expecting a conversation to be akin to that sort of organizational changing package of players.

You're from out of town, right?  Otherwise you'd know better than to bring up Herschel Walker.

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WAR is a terrible stat to use with Heyward because he's a poster child for what's wrong with the stat.

 

As for what Heyward can produce - the guy has been steadily declining in his production and is nowhere near the type of hitter he was expected to be.  Arcia has been pretty good despite having some monumental hills to climb in his approach.

 

I love Heyward's defense, but the guy is going to get way overpaid on the basis of good corner OF d and an overrated bat.  No thanks.

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WAR is a terrible stat to use with Heyward because he's a poster child for what's wrong with the stat.

 

As for what Heyward can produce - the guy has been steadily declining in his production and is nowhere near the type of hitter he was expected to be.  Arcia has been pretty good despite having some monumental hills to climb in his approach.

 

I love Heyward's defense, but the guy is going to get way overpaid on the basis of good corner OF d and an overrated bat.  No thanks.

 

I think WAR is a data point that can help put some things in perspective, especially for a player you almost never see play.

 

At the end of the day he is not what we need to be spending $100+ million on and we likely won't be spending it on anyone anways.

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I'm not sure what you mean by "productive"...(?) W-L wasn't bad 79-83, but they were still 17 G behind the Nationals, who had the only winning record in the Division.

 

They were 2nd to last in runs scored (573), only the Padres (535) were a worse team when it came to putting runs on the board.

 

Great pitching though.

 

In 2013, they had one of the most productive offenses in the league.  That's the point.

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I got the impression Heyward's extension talks fizzled at about the time the Braves extended Freddie Freeman while at the same time it was being reported they weren't offering Heyward a deal in the same ballpark.

 

The Twins may be able to sign him long term, but one shoud probably assume it would take an offer similar to Freeman's, which was 8 years $135 million.  How comfortable are people with that considering they'd also have to give up top end prospects?

 

Not close to the real story from Heyward or the Braves.  He had major issues with Wren and refused to negotiate with Wren, so there was never a deal on the table long-term.  Most close to the situation were surprised he'd even do two years.  He's already talking about meeting with Hart to get something done long-term.

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WAR is a terrible stat to use with Heyward because he's a poster child for what's wrong with the stat.

 

As for what Heyward can produce - the guy has been steadily declining in his production and is nowhere near the type of hitter he was expected to be.  Arcia has been pretty good despite having some monumental hills to climb in his approach.

 

I love Heyward's defense, but the guy is going to get way overpaid on the basis of good corner OF d and an overrated bat.  No thanks.

 

If you go the FA route, generally, you're going to overpay. If you trade a player away for prospects, you'll generally get ahead, not immediately, but generally you get ahead in the game. But you have to do it when the iron is hot. Tampa Bay waited too long and didn't get much of a return for Price by comparison to previous trades of James Shields and Jeff Samardjia.

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If you go the FA route, generally, you're going to overpay. If you trade a player away for prospects, you'll generally get ahead, not immediately, but generally you get ahead in the game. But you have to do it when the iron is hot. Tampa Bay waited too long and didn't get much of a return for Price by comparison to previous trades of James Shields and Jeff Samardjia.

 

I agree, but this is not the time to buy on Heyward.  Especially not since there is still such a strong contingent that overrates his contributions.

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How about Nolasco to the Dodgers for Either?   I would even eat part of Nolasco's contract. 

 

It should be the other way around since Ethier makes more money/season.  I could handle this but Ethier isn't very interesting as a player anymore.  So-so (and declining) power with poor defense.  I prefer CC on Dodgers if we go that route.  He's actually fairly good offensively and defensively.

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