OF Trade Prospects

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Who is a good comp in the Twins' System for the minor leaguer Jenkins that the Braves are getting?

 

Would the Twins have been smart to trade say, Kyle Gibson and uh, Jason Wheeler (fort myers Miracle LHP) to get Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden? 

[biggentleben]

Who is a good comp in the Twins' System for the minor leaguer Jenkins that the Braves are getting?

 

Would the Twins have been smart to trade say, Kyle Gibson and uh, Jason Wheeler (fort myers Miracle LHP) to get Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden? 

 

No way that deal does it.  Jenkins is a top 100 guy who is a former first rounder.  In value, Jenkins could be akin to Stewart because Jenkins is closer to the majors, but has similar upside to Stewart.

 

And Gibson to Shelby Miller isn't even close.

 

I'm not a fan of this deal, but it would have likely taken Meyer/Stewart or something similar as the Twins simply don't have a guy with Miller's background and years of control.

[James Richter]

Acquiring Heyward likely means the Cards are ready to unload Bourjos. Go get him, TR!

[Riverbrian]

I can't imagine the Braves walking away from Heyward. That young player will get it together. He's still young and figuring it all out.

Especially with Upton issues in the OF. I can't imagine Hart moving him... No matter what is offered.

You couldn't even say Heyward to Hart without him saying Upton back to you.

Ryan: I like that Heyward Kid... How Much?

Hart: B.J.... He's got speed... Power... He'd be a nice fit in Minnesota. I could make that happen... B.J. Upton in a Twins uniform.

Ryan: Can't do it with Upton... Let's get back to Heyward.

Hart: I watched B.J. Hit a ball 475 feet to dead center... Drop the bat and sprint full speed and he caught the ball he hit. He's amazing!!!

Ryan: My guys are telling me Heyward is what we need in our OF.

Hart: Your Guys?

Ryan: Twins Daily

Hart: B.J. Ran into a burning orphanage and pulled out 20 young children to safety just last night... He's feeding the poor. Positive P.R... I'm telling you... I would only make this deal with someone I respected... Like you... Ummm... Terry.

Well... It's official... Hart is crazy.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If you are not willing to deal Kepler, a modest corner outfield prospect very far from MLB, for an average to above MLBer at a position of need, you're basically never going to be willing to deal a prospect ever.

 

Would be interesting to see how other teams value Kepler at this point.

I didn't say I was unwilling to trade him. Just wondered aloud if trading Kepler was selling low. Saunders is a buy low guy, not what I'd call an average MLBer at this point. He was OK last year but also injured.

[biggentleben]

Well... It's official... Hart is crazy.

 

I'll hold judgement.  I don't like it, but Miller/Jenkins for Heyward is a pretty solid package, and it sounds like other than the Cubs, there weren't any players in the Heyward market (and the Cubs were only offering a package of prospects, no one major league ready).  He might have done as well as he could have.  Once again, he played Kenny Lofton and a reliever into David Justice and Marquis Grissom, and as a Braves fan, I thought they picked up a piece that would put them over the edge for the next 5 years while moving one who wanted way more contract than the Braves could afford.  They then went until Heyward trying to find a guy who could be half the player Justice was in right field.  Hart may have pulled off something similar.  If Roger McDowell can get a good season out of Aaron Harang, imagine what he could do with Shelby Miller

[sthpstm]

No way that deal does it.  Jenkins is a top 100 guy who is a former first rounder.  In value, Jenkins could be akin to Stewart because Jenkins is closer to the majors, but has similar upside to Stewart.

 

And Gibson to Shelby Miller isn't even close.

 

I'm not a fan of this deal, but it would have likely taken Meyer/Stewart or something similar as the Twins simply don't have a guy with Miller's background and years of control.

I'm curious why you say Jenkins is a top 100 guy.  When I looked up Jenkins this morning, I couldn't find him in any Cardinals top 10 prospects list, those which went to 20 seemed to have him in the mid-teens or lower, which would put him far out of top 100 consideration.  

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I'm curious why you say Jenkins is a top 100 guy.  When I looked up Jenkins this morning, I couldn't find him in any Cardinals top 10 prospects list, those which went to 20 seemed to have him in the mid-teens or lower, which would put him far out of top 100 consideration.  

On mlb.com, he's already been moved to the Braves' list - he's #7 on their top 20

 

I don't know if he's still considered top 100 overall anymore - he was #94 in 2013 from baseball Prospectus, #94 in 2012 from Baseball America....

[Riverbrian]

I'll hold judgement. I don't like it, but Miller/Jenkins for Heyward is a pretty solid package, and it sounds like other than the Cubs, there weren't any players in the Heyward market (and the Cubs were only offering a package of prospects, no one major league ready). He might have done as well as he could have. Once again, he played Kenny Lofton and a reliever into David Justice and Marquis Grissom, and as a Braves fan, I thought they picked up a piece that would put them over the edge for the next 5 years while moving one who wanted way more contract than the Braves could afford. They then went until Heyward trying to find a guy who could be half the player Justice was in right field. Hart may have pulled off something similar. If Roger McDowell can get a good season out of Aaron Harang, imagine what he could do with Shelby Miller

If Miller reaches his potential... The Braves will be happy... But... But... I think Heyward will become one of the best players in Baseball... He has every single tool and a batting eye to boot. He's an Atlanta Kid so I'd guess He'd try to remain with the team after 2015.

 

And the rest of the OF is an Upton mess. It unstabalizes the offense trying to fix the pitching.

 

I wouldn't make this deal. To me it's like Cleaning the Garage by Sweeping the blown in leaves... Dust... Into the kitchen. The Garage looks potentially better... But now your kitchen looks like hell.

[tobi0040]

If Miller reaches his potential... The Braves will be happy... But... But... I think Heyward will become one of the best players in Baseball... He has every single tool and a batting eye to boot. He's an Atlanta Kid so I'd guess He'd try to remain with the team after 2015.

 

And the rest of the OF is an Upton mess. It unstabalizes the offense trying to fix the pitching.

 

I wouldn't make this deal. To me it's like Cleaning the Garage by Sweeping the blown in leaves... Dust... Into the kitchen. The Garage looks potentially better... But now your kitchen looks like hell.

 

I think the motivating factor for the Braves was money.  I am guessing they know what Heyward is looking for and Shelby has 3-4 years of control left.

[jay]

No way that deal does it.  Jenkins is a top 100 guy who is a former first rounder.  In value, Jenkins could be akin to Stewart because Jenkins is closer to the majors, but has similar upside to Stewart.

 

Jenkins is nothing like Stewart.  Drafted 50th overall 4 years ago and hitting the back edge of the BA list is nowhere near Stewart's upside nor documented prospect status.  Jenkins is more like Burdi or Cederoth who the Twins drafted this year, except with injury trouble since then downgrading his stock even further.

 

Miller is probably most like Berrios in our system, but obviously further along with 2 years of ML experience (and soon to be increasing salaries).

[biggentleben]

If Miller reaches his potential... The Braves will be happy... But... But... I think Heyward will become one of the best players in Baseball... He has every single tool and a batting eye to boot. He's an Atlanta Kid so I'd guess He'd try to remain with the team after 2015.

 

And the rest of the OF is an Upton mess. It unstabalizes the offense trying to fix the pitching.

 

I wouldn't make this deal. To me it's like Cleaning the Garage by Sweeping the blown in leaves... Dust... Into the kitchen. The Garage looks potentially better... But now your kitchen looks like hell.

 

You're assuming BJ Upton even plays for the Braves in 2015.

[biggentleben]

Jenkins is nothing like Stewart.  Drafted 50th overall 4 years ago and hitting the back edge of the BA list is nowhere near Stewart's upside nor documented prospect status.  Jenkins is more like Burdi or Cederoth who the Twins drafted this year, except with injury trouble since then downgrading his stock even further.

 

Miller is probably most like Berrios in our system, but obviously further along with 2 years of ML experience (and soon to be increasing salaries).

 

You're underselling Jenkins, but also misinterpreting what I stated.  I stated that they have similar upside, but Jenkins is closer to the majors.  Simply because Stewart hasn't really failed, he'll sit higher on current lists, but Jenkins has rebuilt a ton of value in the last year.

[biggentleben]

I'm curious why you say Jenkins is a top 100 guy.  When I looked up Jenkins this morning, I couldn't find him in any Cardinals top 10 prospects list, those which went to 20 seemed to have him in the mid-teens or lower, which would put him far out of top 100 consideration.  

 

The offseason lists from last year would be pretty poor as Jenkins had a trainwreck 2013.  He's rebuilt a lot of that value, though the statlines don't pop, so he probably won't be high on overall lists, but as far as pitchers and what they bring to the table, absolutely Jenkins and Stewart are similar pitchers with top of the rotation stuff and just needing to show they can harness at a higher level.

[Mike Sixel]

If they didn't think they could sign him....and didn't think they were winning the WS with him this year, then trading him is the right idea. Whether the trade was good or not depends on how you feel about Miller.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think it's pretty common for prospects to be overrated for one's own favorite team, and underrate another team's prospect.

 

Stewart seems to me like a better prospect, but I might be overrating him and underrating Jenkins. My thought with Wheeler was that he was pitching in the same league as Jenkins this year and was about the same age, with kinda sorta similar stats. On a closer look, I would side with the other comp of Cederoth or another guy, like, maybe Mason Melotakis (before his recent TJ surgery news).

 

In any case, I think the Twins weren't really in the Heyward Sweepstakes, and that's ok. It would be great if the Twins can find an OF that can make up for the last two years of bad defense and mediocre hitting. They weren't likely to give up Kohl Stewart (or Melotakis, or Cederoth, or Berrios for sure) to get Heyward for a year, and there's no certainty that they'd be able to retain Heyward beyond that.

 

Dodgers, Red Sox, Saint Louis, all seem to have a surplus of bodies that could be MLB outfielders in 2015. Maybe there's a match there for the Twins...

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Are we all talking about the same Michael Saunders? The one in Seattle can't get on base consistantly and only once posted an OPS over .740

I saw something like this posted in another thread about Rasmus and how little he met a .740 OPS threshold.

 

Remember, a .740 OPS is actually pretty good now.  In Seattle 2014, it would be about a 115 OPS+, roughly equivalent to Dozier's 2014 production (and a little better than Plouffe's).  Even in slight hitter's environments like Minnesota and Toronto, it would be about a 105 OPS+, comfortably above average.

 

It's not really a good threshold to use anymore.

[jorgenswest]

I'll hold judgement.  I don't like it, but Miller/Jenkins for Heyward is a pretty solid package, and it sounds like other than the Cubs, there weren't any players in the Heyward market (and the Cubs were only offering a package of prospects, no one major league ready).  He might have done as well as he could have.  Once again, he played Kenny Lofton and a reliever into David Justice and Marquis Grissom, and as a Braves fan, I thought they picked up a piece that would put them over the edge for the next 5 years while moving one who wanted way more contract than the Braves could afford.  They then went until Heyward trying to find a guy who could be half the player Justice was in right field.  Hart may have pulled off something similar.  If Roger McDowell can get a good season out of Aaron Harang, imagine what he could do with Shelby Miller

Miller was not very good last year. Jenkins was a fringe 100 prospect that will certainly drop after posting a 13.3% strike out rate in high A last year. This is not near the kind of return that was forecasted earlier.

[biggentleben]

Miller was not very good last year. Jenkins was a fringe 100 prospect that will certainly drop after posting a 13.3% strike out rate in high A last year. This is not near the kind of return that was forecasted earlier.

 

Miller also posted a ~2.10 ERA in the second half last season.  He had a very poor first half, but he came around, and he was still better than the pitcher he's replacing, Ervin Santana.

 

Jenkins' strikeouts were down a bunch this year, but his control was much improved, and his stuff received reviews comping him to Brandon Webb with more velocity with his sinking action along with a sharp breaking curve.  Plus, add that repertoire to the Braves infield with Simmons/Peraza up the middle, and you really could see great production.  That's one thing that is missed in the minors by those who only review stats - a heavy sinkerballer will usually have one or two major league caliber middle infielders behind him the entire way up the system, which is why a lot of them "surprise" once they get to the majors and have adequate defense behind them.

[markos]

Miller also posted a ~2.10 ERA in the second half last season.  He had a very poor first half, but he came around, and he was still better than the pitcher he's replacing, Ervin Santana.

 

Jenkins' strikeouts were down a bunch this year, but his control was much improved, and his stuff received reviews comping him to Brandon Webb with more velocity with his sinking action along with a sharp breaking curve.  Plus, add that repertoire to the Braves infield with Simmons/Peraza up the middle, and you really could see great production.  That's one thing that is missed in the minors by those who only review stats - a heavy sinkerballer will usually have one or two major league caliber middle infielders behind him the entire way up the system, which is why a lot of them "surprise" once they get to the majors and have adequate defense behind them.

 

There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about this trade from Atlanta's perspective, as Ben has laid out. However, there is a significant amount of risk. Miller's turnaround was definitely buoyed by a .214 BABIP in the second half. His FIP was still above 4.00 during that time. He does have good pedigree and is young, but Dave Cameron made the comp to Jeremy Hellickson as another pitcher whose performance never quite reached his lofty prospect status. Regarding Jenkins, both Keith Law and Kylie McDaniel gave glowing reports from his performance in the Arizona Fall League. However, Jenkins sure gave up a lot of home runs last season if he is an elite groundball pitcher. As a comparison, he was in the same league as Jose Berrios last year (and 2 years older), yet he gave up homers at twice the rate, even though Berrios is considered a flyball-prone pitcher. Overall, he had a 4+ FIP for the season. And he has yet to pitch more than 100 innings or make more than 20 starts in a season due to injuries. Sounds like he has good stuff and seems to be trending in the right direction, but there is a fair amount of risk involved.

 

If I was a Braves fan, I would be a little disappointed that they couldn't get more for Heyward, but I would definitely be excited about the potential upside.

[tobi0040]

 

If I was a Braves fan, I would be a little disappointed that they couldn't get more for Heyward, but I would definitely be excited about the potential upside.

 

I think the trade looks a tad lopsided because money was a factor.  You swap a guy with one year of control for a guy with four years of control.  The Braves have long term contracts all over the place and they replace Ervin's $14M with Shelby's much less.

[biggentleben]

I think the trade looks a tad lopsided because money was a factor.  You swap a guy with one year of control for a guy with four years of control.  The Braves have long term contracts all over the place and they replace Ervin's $14M with Shelby's much less.

 

Total savings were roughly $12M with Walden's expected $4M-ish

[tobi0040]

Total savings were roughly $12M with Walden's expected $4M-ish

 

I just think they weren't interested in another long term deal.

 

They owe Justin $16M over two years and he is in line for a nice extension.  As is Medlen.

 

They owe BJ $45M over 3 years.

 

They owe Kimbrell $50M over 4 years.

 

They owe Freeman $120M over 7 years

 

They owe Johnson $23M over 3 years

 

They owe Teheran $25M over 5 years

 

They owe Simmons $50M over 5 years

[biggentleben]

Upton is owed $14.5M in 2015.  Medlen is most likely gone or signing a very heavily-incentivized one-year deal after his second Tommy John.  Johnson is strongly being shopped.  There is intentional movement of money as part of this deal.  They're meeting with Lester this week and offered 8 years last offseason to Heyward, so I highly doubt it's about contract length.

[nicksaviking]

Prospects like Jenkins always bother me, but I'll admit I am extremely prejudiced against guys who can't miss bats in A ball.

 

Miller is still a better trade chip than any pitcher in the Twins system though.  Berrios might be sniffing his level, but he's not there at this time.  We can't forget that while the prospect luster wears off guys once they make it to the MLB level, GM's tend to favor the "MLB ready" tag more than those who rate raw prospects.  The Twins didn't have the pieces to pull this one off without making it hurt way too much.  They also aren't likely to offer Heyword the $130 million extension required to keep him past 2015.

[biggentleben]

Prospects like Jenkins always bother me, but I'll admit I am extremely prejudiced against guys who can't miss bats in A ball.

 

Miller is still a better trade chip than any pitcher in the Twins system though.  Berrios might be sniffing his level, but he's not there at this time.  We can't forget that while the prospect luster wears off guys once they make it to the MLB level, GM's tend to favor the "MLB ready" tag more than those who rate raw prospects.  The Twins didn't have the pieces to pull this one off without making it hurt way too much.  They also aren't likely to offer Heyword the $130 million extension required to keep him past 2015.

 

I'd be very surprised if it "only" took $130M to keep Jason Heyward on an extension.

[cmb0252]

I really would like the Twins to make a move like the Heyward trade. We have a deep farm system, quantity in the bigs, but lack quality. While I consider myself a prospect guy they just seem to be over valued. I almost always feel the team trading the star gets the better end of the deal now of days (except the shark trade).

[biggentleben]

I really would like the Twins to make a move like the Heyward trade. We have a deep farm system, quantity in the bigs, but lack quality. While I consider myself a prospect guy they just seem to be over valued. I almost always feel the team trading the star gets the better end of the deal now of days (except the shark trade).

 

The Heyward trade required a highly-valued asset with major league experience, though.  I'm not sure the Twins have those that they're willing to move.

[cmb0252]

The Heyward trade required a highly-valued asset with major league experience, though.  I'm not sure the Twins have those that they're willing to move.

That's the problem. They should be willing to move anyone after losing for the 4th season in a row. I would have no problem packaging Santana, Vargas, or Gibson with soon to be ready prospects to get a true impact player. You are right though that they won't which disappoints me.

[biggentleben]

That's the problem. They should be willing to move anyone after losing for the 4th season in a row. I would have no problem packaging Santana, Vargas, or Gibson with soon to be ready prospects to get a true impact player. You are right though that they won't which disappoints me.

 

I don't think Santana/Vargas/Gibson are exactly highly valued assets around the league, either.