The Twins and the Orioles are pretty close in performance

[Thrylos]

I know that this title sounds pretty ridiculous, if you consider that the Twins lost 92 games and the Orioles won 96.   Interestingly enough, their team performance on both sides of the ball is pretty close:

 

FIP:

 

Twins: 3.97

Orioles: 3.97

 

OPS+

 

Twins: 100

Orioles: 106

 

wRC+

 

Twins 102

Orioles 105

 

And yet they are in polar opposites in the standings.    The difference?   Management and decisions (like break camp with a roster of DHs/1B & carry about 5 SSs at a point) Luck? Wanting to win more?

 

Not sure, but just some interesting food for thought...

[USAFChief]

Runs allowed:

 

Bal:  593

Min:  777

 

Maybe FIP ain't all that.

[twinsnorth49]

Yes, now I'm more firmly convinced than ever that the Twins just don't want to win. That has to be it.

[stringer bell]

Runs allowed:

 

Bal:  593

Min:  777

 

Maybe FIP ain't all that.

Defense is a huge problem. The Twins just about have to stay with Arcia, he needs to be a smarter and better defender. I think he has made more good plays, but he also has had too many "brain freezes"--diving when he shouldn't dive, throwing to the wrong base or not throwing to the right base etc.--left field has to be manned by a plus defender (I like Schafer there) and center should be played consistently by one player (I think Santana would be more than adequate with a full spring training).

[TheLeviathan]

Conclusion: Our defense sucks.

[Mike Sixel]

That and averages hide lots of context.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Runs allowed:

 

Bal:  593

Min:  777

 

Maybe FIP ain't all that.

FIP can be useful, but it also effectively limits how bad a team/pitcher can be.  Invariably, there are pitchers with ERAs in the 5's but FIP always registers in the 4's for them.  Similar for the worst team ERAs in the league.

 

I know that FIP is supposed to remove some of the defense/luck inherent in ERA, but when you are one of the worst pitchers on perhaps the worst staff in the league... it's probably removing too much defense/luck.

[USAFChief]

Defense is a huge problem. The Twins just about have to stay with Arcia, he needs to be a smarter and better defender. I think he has made more good plays, but he also has had too many "brain freezes"--diving when he shouldn't dive, throwing to the wrong base or not throwing to the right base etc.--left field has to be manned by a plus defender (I like Schafer there) and center should be played consistently by one player (I think Santana would be more than adequate with a full spring training).

I just can't buy defense being the reason the Twins gave up 180 more runs. Particularly when most everyone agrees the infield defense was reasonably competent.

[The Wise One]

The Twins pitchers gave up 200 more hits than the Orioles pitchers did. That alone would not explain more runs. The LOB% of 77% for the Orioles versus 69% for the Twins would cause me to think maybe the Twin's pitchers were prone to giving up the big inning more than the Orioles.  Not to be too picky, but I guess that is why when one uses statistics to determine the difference between  70 and 96 you need to look at more than a few statistics. .

[Paul Pleiss]

While I think FIP/xFIP are much better at predicting future performance for a pitcher from year-to-year than ERA/ERA+, I'm not convinved comparing the FIP of one team to another tells us that much about the squad. FIP is a useful tool, but I think it leaves a lot out, which I think is the point of the state, but it's not the whole picture by a long shot.

[The Wise One]

"Before helping the Orioles, Wallace was the minor league pitching coordinator for the Atlanta Braves and had a health scare with his hip replacement. Now he is the Orioles' fifth pitching coach since 2010 and one who, based on Showalter's comments and the success of the team, can stay with Baltimore for as long he wants."

 

That was from Rueters. As Thrylos points out the Twins and Orioles have the same fielding independent pitching. I would take then that is the only pitching statistic Thrylos mentioned to compare to the Orioles that the Twin's pitching staff could be comparable to the Orioles. Now if Showalter thinks that his coach can have a job for the rest of his life with the Oriole's results, who are we to complain of Anderson. His staff is producing the same result  as Wallace's

[jokin]

I just can't buy defense being the reason the Twins gave up 180 more runs. Particularly when most everyone agrees the infield defense was reasonably competent.

 

Orioles Pitching slash:  .308/.382/.690  BA: .244 (ranked 5th lowest)

Twins Pitching slash:  .330/.428/.758    BA: .280 (ranked Worst)

 

Orioles CS%:  28% (ranked 5th)

Twins CS%: 18% (ranked Worst)

 

Orioles BABIP:  .280 (ranked 3rd lowest)

Twins BABIP:  .315  (ranked Worst)

 

Orioles DIP%:  115% (ranked 1st)

Twins DIP%:  87% (ranked Worst)

 

Regarding pure IF team defensive metrics, based on UZR and DRS, the Orioles graded out vastly superior at 1st, 2nd and SS over the Twins, with the main players contributing to the strong numbers primarily being Pierce (about 1/3 the innings @ 1st), Schoop and Hardy.  3rd Base was basically a wash, as Machado missed all of April and basically the last two months of 2014, as well.  Matt Wieters has been out since early May, but no matter, Caleb Joseph easily outgraded Suzuki defensively at Catcher.  I would think the "reasonably competent" grading for the Twins IF might be in the ballpark, but nowhere near "above average", let alone "near elite", as the Orioles appear to be (and the O's are probably in the "elite" camp with a healthy Manny Machado) .

 

Looks like plenty of blame to go around here for both the Twins IF defense, as well as the Pitchers/Catchers.

[The Wise One]

Orioles Pitching slash:  .308/.382/.690  BA: .244 (ranked 5th lowest)

Twins Pitching slash:  .330/.428/.758    BA: .280 (ranked Worst)

 

Orioles CS%:  28% (ranked 5th)

Twins CS%: 18% (ranked Worst)

 

Orioles BABIP:  .280 (ranked 3rd lowest)

Twins BABIP:  .315  (ranked Worst)

 

Orioles DIP%:  115% (ranked 1st)

Twins DIP%:  87% (ranked Worst)

 

Regarding pure IF team defensive metrics, based on UZR and DRS, the Orioles graded out vastly superior at 1st, 2nd and SS over the Twins, with the main players contributing to the strong numbers primarily being Pierce (about 1/3 the innings @ 1st), Schoop and Hardy.  3rd Base was basically a wash, as Machado missed all of April and basically the last two months of 2014, as well.  Matt Wieters has been out since early May, but no matter, Caleb Joseph easily outgraded Suzuki defensively at Catcher.  I would think the "reasonably competent" grading for the Twins IF might be in the ballpark, but nowhere near "above average", let alone "near elite", as the Orioles appear to be (and the O's are probably in the "elite" camp with a healthy Manny Machado) .

 

Looks like plenty of blame to go around here for both the Twins IF defense, as well as the Pitchers/Catchers.

Since you are making a deal on how bad the Twins are throwing out base runners. It was reported Suzuki has thrown out 25.3% of the basestealers. The 0/19 of Pinto might go a long way to explain why the Twins brass are not that high on him as a catcher.

[stringer bell]

I just can't buy defense being the reason the Twins gave up 180 more runs. Particularly when most everyone agrees the infield defense was reasonably competent.

I don't think it is the only reason at all. I think the club, going forward, needs to look at defense as a higher priority in who plays and who they acquire. The number I saw most recently was that the Twins were -57 runs in outfield defense, roughly a third of the 180 run difference between the Orioles and Twins. Pitching, of course, is the primary component and the Twins outfield defense was further exposed by the low strikeout, high flyball pitching staff.

[stringer bell]

Since you are making a deal on how bad the Twins are throwing out base runners. It was reported Suzuki has thrown out 25.3% of the basestealers. The 0/19 of Pinto might go a long way to explain why the Twins brass are not that high on him as a catcher.

How did Zuke get up to 25%? At one point he had only thrown out two of something like 40 base stealers. Yes, Pinto had problems throwing, but they don't have much to do with his arm strength. Footwork and accuracy were the problems and when discussing catcher throw outs, we always need to remember that there is no chance unless the pitcher does a reasonable job of holding the runner and getting the pitch to the plate quickly.

[USAFChief]

I don't think it is the only reason at all. I think the club, going forward, needs to look at defense as a higher priority in who plays and who they acquire. The number I saw most recently was that the Twins were -57 runs in outfield defense, roughly a third of the 180 run difference between the Orioles and Twins. Pitching, of course, is the primary component and the Twins outfield defense was further exposed by the low strikeout, high flyball pitching staff.

Baltimore employed, among others, Nelson Cruz and Delmon Young in LF.

 

And yet they gave up 180 fewer runs.

 

The Twins OF defense seemed to be just fine on the days Phil Hughes was pitching.

[gil4]

How did Zuke get up to 25%? At one point he had only thrown out two of something like 40 base stealers. Yes, Pinto had problems throwing, but they don't have much to do with his arm strength. Footwork and accuracy were the problems and when discussing catcher throw outs, we always need to remember that there is no chance unless the pitcher does a reasonable job of holding the runner and getting the pitch to the plate quickly.

 

I would add that the tendency to make the back-up the personal catcher for somebody can skew the data if that somebody is horrible at holding runners on.  Wasn't Pinto catching Deduno early in the year?  

[jokin]

Since you are making a deal on how bad the Twins are throwing out base runners. It was reported Suzuki has thrown out 25.3% of the basestealers. The 0/19 of Pinto might go a long way to explain why the Twins brass are not that high on him as a catcher.

 

Caleb Joseph had a Caught Stealing rate of 40.4% this year.  Only Molina has a higher mark than that for any full-time Catcher. 

 

FWIW- ESPN has Suzuki at 24.7% this year, with a career CS rate of 26%.  The Twins at the Catcher position, as a team, #30 out of 30 teams in rSB, which is defined by The Fielding Bible as thus:

 

 

rSB – Stolen Base Runs Saved (Catchers/Pitchers) measures two things: the pitcher’s contributions to controlling the running game, and gives the catcher credit for throwing out runners and preventing them from attempting steals in the first place.

 

So.... blame for all to share, but Suzuki is right around his career average.  And an illustration of yet another mess that needs fixing if the goal in 2015 is increased run prevention.

[Beemo]

Don't use caught stealing percentage as a statistic for catchers. That also includes plays where the pitcher essentially picks off the runner and gets him out advancing to the next base. Only 12 of Suzuki's 21 caught stealings this season were actually Suzuki throwing the runner out. 

[jokin]

Don't use caught stealing percentage as a statistic for catchers. That also includes plays where the pitcher essentially picks off the runner and gets him out advancing to the next base. Only 12 of Suzuki's 21 caught stealings this season were actually Suzuki throwing the runner out. 

 

I don't know why you wouldn't use it.  Baseball reference doesn't have a problem using it, and it sure seems the best regarded catchers dominate the top names on the list of top active catchers CS%:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/caught_stealing_perc_active.shtml

 

Yadier Molina is # 1 among actives.  Mauer is #7.  Among the 40 catchers listed, Suzuki ranks #33.

[Thegrin]

This whole discussion just proves that no single stat should be used to quantify the effectiveness of any teams ability. 

And what do the stats predict? In '15 we won't be playing Willingham.  We may get a full season of Pinto catching at least twice a week.  Will Joe be healthy?  What effect will Vargas at first have on the numbers.

Who will play SS ? and who will play CF? How will these questions combine to effect the Twins fielding stats?

[Beemo]

I don't know why you wouldn't use it.  Baseball reference doesn't have a problem using it, and it sure seems the best regarded catchers dominate the top names on the list of top active catchers CS%:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/caught_stealing_perc_active.shtml

 

Yadier Molina is # 1 among actives.  Mauer is #7.  Among the 40 catchers listed, Suzuki ranks #33.

 

Because it includes things the catcher didn't actually do. And because of that is will overrate and underrate some guys. Suzuki is actually affected pretty significantly if you only count the guys he threw out. I can't go through the whole list, but every guy below Suzuki in that top 40 of active CS% has actually thrown out a higher percentage of base stealers than him.