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So What Now?


Doctor Gast

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When Pohlad dropped a bomb saying paraphrased "We aren't going after any $30MM/ yr. FA" & " We'll live where we're at". Many fans went berserk, I'm not taking sides if the Pohlads can afford to pay the money or not because I have no idea. But I do know we live in a much lower market than NY, LA & CHI. & can't compete with those teams in spending. But is spending big in FA the answer to being successful? NYY & NYM went big in FA last offseason, how did they do? Is FA the solution to all our problems? I think not. IMO FA is an inefficient way to take care of our needs with FA salaries skyrocketing every year. I'd like to look at 3 different teams that do not go big in FA yet are very productive.

1st is Baltimore, They won the highly competitive AL East Division & are positioned to be a powerhouse for years to come. How did they do it? Much like HOU they tanked for many years & were able to get high draft picks & started to accumulate great prospects. 2nd is Tampa Bay. It's been a while since TB has had a really bad season so how have they done it? By accumulating prospects by trading off hyped players (especially SP) getting near to FA for promising young players & prospects. Another successful team that doesn't rely on FA is Atlanta. Like TB they like to trade but they trade to fortify a need & when they get a player they like to be around for a while they extend them. Can we emulate them?

With the new anti-tanking lottery this is no longer a sure bet to build a great team, plus teams like PIT & CO have tanked for years & still are floundering. Maybe build a pitching pipeline like TB & CLE, which we have tried since Favey became GM. Many of our high-ceiling prospects never panned out & Ober (started out as mid-ceiling) is the highest of any of our prospects that have risen but we haven't been able to produce a rotation full of in-house high-level  SPs every year so we can trade them to fill weak spots in the team. Maybe we can be more proactive in trading to fill our needs and extend players like ATL? It should definitely help. 

BAL, TB & ATL are all different but there are a couple of things that they do that are the same. They are great at player & team evaluation & development which separates them from their peers and make them successful year after year. These are areas that the Twins need to improve. CO has tanked for years & they like to throw money at their players but that doesn't do any good if they don't have good player & team evaluation & development. IMO stats like WAR favor sluggers, & any high-focus analytical team tends to focus on HRs & defense & baserunning are minimized. Drafting, developing, team & player evaluations are prioritized on HRs, the rest is ignored. Analytics are very important but we can't be lost in it.

We been blessed with 3 high 1st round picks that were no brainers Lewis, Lee & Jenkins. Whenever we get a low 1st round draft pick we often select a big bat cOF/1B/DH (Rooker, Sabato, Larnach, & Caveco #13 was drafted as a SS but most likely will end up at 1B). I'm frustrated with the development of Wallner who has a lot of potential but it seems that all they focus on is for him to hit HRs. I'm frustrated with the development of our catchers. This priority affects us as far as our evaluation of our team needs & players' importance to the team where we hang onto players we could let go & let go of who we should keep.

Team & player evaluation & development are very important but where ATL separates itself is that they use that evaluations to find holes in their team & then they go out & make trades that fills or upgrade in that area. We have also been fortunate with trades that fell into our laps like Lopez, Ryan, & Maeda. But once we improve our team & players evaluations of not only our team but also those teams that hold our missing pieces, I'd love to see us to be more proactive in making trades. There are so many opportunities out there once our eyes are open. The opportunities that were open early this season are pretty much closed but there'll be new opportunities & we need to be ready for them.

I heard someone praise our FO that if Pohlad allocates X amount of dollars they will spend X amount of dollars. I can see what they are saying but I also see it as something very wasteful because if the Twins had an extra $11MM they could take another unrealistic risk on a Gallo-type that had no real need just because they had the money. Dreaming about picking up this high price FA or that high price FA isn't very feasible even before this Balley mess.

The Chinese look at crises as an opportunity, these 2 words have the same root word. We have 2 choices stay the same & fall behind or change our priorities to be more realistic & to become more like ATL & become independent from free agency,  & become a better & more competitive team.

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RpR

Posted

You are cherry picking, those three teams all had bomba squads and excellent pitching, you also ignored the Dodgers .

Twins had good pitching through Free Agency and that is probably gone; the Front Office wants a bomba squad but three members of that are gone.

Schmoeman5

Posted

Why are a lot of people using the Orioles way of team building a great success? For about the last 20 years they've sucked. Yeah they occasionally brought up some good players Machado, Jones only to deal them away or lose them to free agency. So they've done really well drafting and getting these new guys MLB ready over the past 5 years. Get back to me in 5 years when Rutchmann and all these other young guys become too expensive and are dealt away. They have the model. But do they have the glue?

Doctor Gast

Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, RpR said:

You are cherry picking, those three teams all had bomba squads and excellent pitching, you also ignored the Dodgers .

Twins had good pitching through Free Agency and that is probably gone; the Front Office wants a bomba squad but three members of that are gone.

I'm not against HRs & those 3 teams probably aren't against HRs either but they are aware that to be successful you have to know defense & baserunning are important, it's a good idea to develop your own players & have a great evaluation system.

LAD wasn't big in FA last offseason. Yet they are a big market team (& like I said we can't compete with them in spending they have money to burn) but what separates them from most other big market teams is that they focus on defense, baserunning, developing their players & have a great evaluation system.

You seem to have the bomba squad mentality. Where HRs equate wins, We had the most HRs in the AL, then that means we should have had the best record in the AL last season. But in reality if we went by wins only, we wouldn't have made the play-offs.

Edited by Doctor Gast
tony&rodney

Posted

Joaquin Anduhar said something along the lines of "You can sum up the game of baseball in word, 'You Never Know'."

While I am excited to see what Lewis, Lee, and Jenkins can do as MLB players, they are just getting their feet wet.

Nearly every single team and their fans talks about their superior development programs in their system. Did anyone listen to the Yankee broadcasters today drone on about how much better the Yankees are at identifying and teaching prospects? They even had a few subtle shots at the Twins. 

When I look around at national publications, there is general agreement that the Twins are the favorite to win the AL Central Division with around 84 victories. 

So What Now? Ask Anduhar.

Doctor Gast

Posted

I give up. I know many have no idea what I'm saying. For things to get better things have to change & this FO is not going to change where everything is filtered by big bats. Miller is an elite SS who has promise to become a very good hitter & should become our future SS. but he doesn't have a big bat so he's dispensible. Miller's talents & being super undervalued, he should have been untouchable but this FO didn't see it that way.

This trade greatly helped LAD to add future depth to their questionable key position of SS. LAD will teach Miller to become a hitter, not how to strike out. LAD wanted to dump Margot to pick up Hernandez. The SS lotto ticket we got will add to the mediocre SS heap we have that probably won't stick but he has raw power, just what we need. Margot like all the new additions doesn't fill any need but only adds backfill & replacement of well-qualified in-house players would have filled, at the expense of our needed assets. LAD is playing chess where they are a couple of moves ahead. While the Twins are playing Tic-Tac-Toe. Our real needs are a postseason starter, upgrades to our dismal catching depth & catching development. Those were not touched.

This FO has been lucky, in '19, Schoop influenced Cruz to come to MN & of course the "juiced ball". '20 was the perfect storm for Maeda, Many good trades (Lopez, Gray, Ryan & Maeda) & Correa fell into their laps that came into fruition in '23. But when things don't fall into their laps they are absolutely terrible. Unless they still trade Vazquez or he, Lewis or Lopez significantly get hurt (heaven forbid). The Twins will win the division but the postseason will be disappointing. The one thing that this FO does well is spin hype.

Like I said I give up, this is my last blog. I have given up hope that this FO will ever change or this ownership will ever fire them or the Twins will ever win another World Series. So pile up those thumbs down, quote me & try to undo what I said. I don't care. I'm no longer going to rock the boat, so enjoy your Kool-Aid party while you can.

tarheeltwinsfan

Posted

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I give up. I know many have no idea what I'm saying. For things to get better things have to change & this FO is not going to change where everything is filtered by big bats. Miller is an elite SS who has promise to become a very good hitter & should become our future SS. but he doesn't have a big bat so he's dispensible. Miller's talents & being super undervalued, he should have been untouchable but this FO didn't see it that way.

This trade greatly helped LAD to add future depth to their questionable key position of SS. LAD will teach Miller to become a hitter, not how to strike out. LAD wanted to dump Margot to pick up Hernandez. The SS lotto ticket we got will add to the mediocre SS heap we have that probably won't stick but he has raw power, just what we need. Margot like all the new additions doesn't fill any need but only adds backfill & replacement of well-qualified in-house players would have filled, at the expense of our needed assets. LAD is playing chess where they are a couple of moves ahead. While the Twins are playing Tic-Tac-Toe. Our real needs are a postseason starter, upgrades to our dismal catching depth & catching development. Those were not touched.

This FO has been lucky, in '19, Schoop influenced Cruz to come to MN & of course the "juiced ball". '20 was the perfect storm for Maeda, Many good trades (Lopez, Gray, Ryan & Maeda) & Correa fell into their laps that came into fruition in '23. But when things don't fall into their laps they are absolutely terrible. Unless they still trade Vazquez or he, Lewis or Lopez significantly get hurt (heaven forbid). The Twins will win the division but the postseason will be disappointing. The one thing that this FO does well is spin hype.

Like I said I give up, this is my last blog. I have given up hope that this FO will ever change or this ownership will ever fire them or the Twins will ever win another World Series. So pile up those thumbs down, quote me & try to undo what I said. I don't care. I'm no longer going to rock the boat, so enjoy your Kool-Aid party while you can.

Doc, Don't go. It is almost spring and hope springs eternal. Right now the Twins are tied for first place. You made some good points, but I did not agree with everything you wrote. Sorta like voting for a politician...I don't agree with everything any politician says or does, but just have to pick the one who makes the most sense to me. You are one of the posters who has made the most sense to me through the years. I look forward to your continued posts. 

CCHOF5yearstoolate

Posted

9 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I give up. I know many have no idea what I'm saying. For things to get better things have to change & this FO is not going to change where everything is filtered by big bats. Miller is an elite SS who has promise to become a very good hitter & should become our future SS. but he doesn't have a big bat so he's dispensible. Miller's talents & being super undervalued, he should have been untouchable but this FO didn't see it that way.

This trade greatly helped LAD to add future depth to their questionable key position of SS. LAD will teach Miller to become a hitter, not how to strike out. LAD wanted to dump Margot to pick up Hernandez. The SS lotto ticket we got will add to the mediocre SS heap we have that probably won't stick but he has raw power, just what we need. Margot like all the new additions doesn't fill any need but only adds backfill & replacement of well-qualified in-house players would have filled, at the expense of our needed assets. LAD is playing chess where they are a couple of moves ahead. While the Twins are playing Tic-Tac-Toe. Our real needs are a postseason starter, upgrades to our dismal catching depth & catching development. Those were not touched.

This FO has been lucky, in '19, Schoop influenced Cruz to come to MN & of course the "juiced ball". '20 was the perfect storm for Maeda, Many good trades (Lopez, Gray, Ryan & Maeda) & Correa fell into their laps that came into fruition in '23. But when things don't fall into their laps they are absolutely terrible. Unless they still trade Vazquez or he, Lewis or Lopez significantly get hurt (heaven forbid). The Twins will win the division but the postseason will be disappointing. The one thing that this FO does well is spin hype.

Like I said I give up, this is my last blog. I have given up hope that this FO will ever change or this ownership will ever fire them or the Twins will ever win another World Series. So pile up those thumbs down, quote me & try to undo what I said. I don't care. I'm no longer going to rock the boat, so enjoy your Kool-Aid party while you can.

I guess I'm probably one of the people referred to in the last paragraph here, but stuff like "Miller has promise to become a very good hitter and should become our future SS" is just completely detached from reality, man. 

It could happen, sure, but at this point it is very unlikely and you have to completely disregard his actual play to say what you said. Baseball history is littered with low percentage could have been guys. 

If you want to say that every good move they made was luck and it fell into their lap, that's your prerogative. But I simply do not not view that as a serious commentary on the moves. I view that as someone who is completely unwilling to give any credit but rather is choosing to view every move in the most negative light possible. 

Werbellik

Posted

Lopez was acquired through trade for Arraez. Ober was developed by our farm system. Paddack was acquired through trading Taylor Rogers . Descalfini along with a top 100 prospect and relief pitcher were acquired through trading Polanco. Varland is being ceveloped, as are the next three or four potential starters in line. Jax is a draftee and Thielbar is a native and on and on. The vast majority of our very good staff was either developed by or acquired by trade of players developed by our system. I agree the Pohlads won't spend and the organization is horrible at PR, but there's more than one way to skin a cat.

rhal

Posted

The lack of humility is striking. Perhaps leave a little space for the possibility that Miller is in fact a no-hit, great glove player that will never make it to the majors as a regular. Or that he’ll be blocked anyway by some better prospect. Andújar had it right. Enjoy the ride, we only get to go this way once 

Doctor Gast

Posted

20 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Doc, Don't go. It is almost spring and hope springs eternal. Right now the Twins are tied for first place. You made some good points, but I did not agree with everything you wrote. Sorta like voting for a politician...I don't agree with everything any politician says or does, but just have to pick the one who makes the most sense to me. You are one of the posters who has made the most sense to me through the years. I look forward to your continued posts. 

Thank you for those kind words Tarheel. Although I don't see any hope that my Twins will accomplish their full potential & I'm pulling back frustrated because of it, I'm not going anywhere.

Doctor Gast

Posted

1 hour ago, rhal said:

The lack of humility is striking. Perhaps leave a little space for the possibility that Miller is in fact a no-hit, great glove player that will never make it to the majors as a regular. Or that he’ll be blocked anyway by some better prospect. Andújar had it right. Enjoy the ride, we only get to go this way once 

They said the same thing about Lewis & Martin & most everyone believed it. But they bucked the system & found their own way of being a very good hitters that can hit HRs. I expect Miller needs someone to coached him how to find his way & become a good hitter not a slugger that strikes out a lot. Miller is a GG SS in of it's self is enough to keep him if you have any sense of defense.

Aerodeliria

Posted

I also say thanks DG. It was a thoughtful post. I do not agree with everything, but I do believe that there is less emphasis on fundamental plays and players, which is troubling. Kirilloff's OLE at 1b in Game 3 against the Astros opened the floodgates--negating a sure double-play and put the Twins behind the 🎱.

CCHOF5yearstoolate

Posted

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

They said the same thing about Lewis & Martin & most everyone believed it. But they bucked the system & found their own way of being a very good hitters that can hit HRs. I expect Miller needs someone to coached him how to find his way & become a good hitter not a slugger that strikes out a lot. Miller is a GG SS in of it's self is enough to keep him if you have any sense of defense.

This is simply not true. 

Doctor Gast

Posted

Ober is the only one on this rotation, who has been developed by the organization the rest have been obtained. So the others have not been developed but tweaked, there's a difference. I have given them credit for their tweaking & their pipeline (although it hasn't reached the goal that it was meant to be). My concern isn't so much on their pitching development as on everything else.

Doctor Gast

Posted

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

They said the same thing about Lewis & Martin & most everyone believed it.

This is simply not true. 

If you are one of the very few whose faith in Lewis & Martin never wavered. I salute you. But during their difficult time of finding themselves, great many that were influenced by negative hype said they were no good & that they should be traded. But their trade value along with their rankings had tanked.  

 

tarheeltwinsfan

Posted

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

They said the same thing about Lewis & Martin & most everyone believed it. But they bucked the system & found their own way of being a very good hitters that can hit HRs. I expect Miller needs someone to coached him how to find his way & become a good hitter not a slugger that strikes out a lot. Miller is a GG SS in of it's self is enough to keep him if you have any sense of defense.

Are you referring to Jerry Lewis and Dean Martin? Austin Martin can't hit homeruns and he has not played one game in the major leagues yet. See Doc, I did not agree with you about Martin, but that does not mean I won't respect you in the morning.  Keep on writing Doc. You are one of my favorite writers. 

CCHOF5yearstoolate

Posted

52 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

If you are one of the very few whose faith in Lewis & Martin never wavered. I salute you. But during their difficult time of finding themselves, great many that were influenced by negative hype said they were no good & that they should be traded. But their trade value along with their rankings had tanked. 

Sorry Doc, that's just not the reality of the situation. An astonishingly small group completely lost faith in Royce Lewis to the point of saying he should be traded, and 1 year of bad results from Austin Martin while they were trying to maximize his potential is not an apt comparison to Noah Miller's 3 consecutive years of terrible production. Plus, it's not like Martin has actually proven anything yet.

A few disproportionately loud voices do not mean their opinion is held by the majority. 

Doctor Gast

Posted

37 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Are you referring to Jerry Lewis and Dean Martin? Austin Martin can't hit homeruns and he has not played one game in the major leagues yet. See Doc, I did not agree with you about Martin, but that does not mean I won't respect you in the morning.  Keep on writing Doc. You are one of my favorite writers. 

My point with Martin is he hit 2 HRs in the whole '22 season at AA while trying to be an HR hitter & when he stopped trying to be an HR hitter he hit 8 HRs in half of the '23 season at AAA & AFL. Prorated that to a full season comes to 16 HRs, which is not too shabby.

Doctor Gast

Posted

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Sorry Doc, that's just not the reality of the situation. An astonishingly small group completely lost faith in Royce Lewis to the point of saying he should be traded, and 1 year of bad results from Austin Martin while they were trying to maximize his potential is not an apt comparison to Noah Miller's 3 consecutive years of terrible production. Plus, it's not like Martin has actually proven anything yet.

A few disproportionately loud voices do not mean their opinion is held by the majority. 

Sorry I'll have to take back my salute, Lewis, Martin & Miller are exactly the same in that they are all trained the same way. Only Lewis & Martin had it in themselves to break away to find themselves, whereas Miller needs to be set aside & coached to find himself. If you look at Martin, you'll see the person he is & you don't need any more proof than that, (like I had done with Lewis). 

Miller, was the best SS we had in our system which has a lot of value. But the Twins looks at him & see that he's not a HR hitter so by their standard he's worthless & they project this to the fanbase. That's what I fault with this organization. They should have seen his worth, seen he's not an HR hitter, set him aside & helped him to become a good hitter & OB machine.

CCHOF5yearstoolate

Posted

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Sorry I'll have to take back my salute, Lewis, Martin & Miller are exactly the same in that they are all trained the same way. Only Lewis & Martin had it in themselves to break away to find themselves, whereas Miller needs to be set aside & coached to find himself. If you look at Martin, you'll see the person he is & you don't need any more proof than that, (like I had done with Lewis). 

Miller, was the best SS we had in our system which has a lot of value. But the Twins looks at him & see that he's not a HR hitter so by their standard he's worthless & they project this to the fanbase. That's what I fault with this organization. They should have seen his worth, seen he's not an HR hitter, set him aside & helped him to become a good hitter & OB machine.

You're trying to pass off your emotional attachment to the players as facts. That doesn't do anything for me. 

Doctor Gast

Posted

2 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

You're trying to pass off your emotional attachment to the players as facts. That doesn't do anything for me. 

I've been accused of being a Cave hater, Polanco hater, Jeffers hater, Polanco lover, Bauer lover & now a Miller lover. Emotion has nothing to do with it. It's about making this team better. I really like Lewis & Lee but Miller would have been the best choice for this team at SS when Correa transitions to 3B. That's all that matters. LAD saw the elite glove of Miller (fact) & his hitting potential & is able to develop him into a 1st class hitter. Which would be a shame because that's what the Twins should have done. If I'd judge between the Twins' player evaluation or LADs'. I'd pick LAD any day of the week (fact). If you think otherwise, you should question your own emotional attachments.

CCHOF5yearstoolate

Posted

25 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I've been accused of being a Cave hater, Polanco hater, Jeffers hater, Polanco lover, Bauer lover & now a Miller lover. Emotion has nothing to do with it. It's about making this team better. I really like Lewis & Lee but Miller would have been the best choice for this team at SS when Correa transitions to 3B. That's all that matters. LAD saw the elite glove of Miller (fact) & his hitting potential & is able to develop him into a 1st class hitter. Which would be a shame because that's what the Twins should have done. If I'd judge between the Twins' player evaluation  or LADs'. I'd pick LAD any day of the week (fact).

You can't just try to bury emotional arguments that are completely detached from any real scouting report in between 2 obvious truths and act like it's also a fact. That might only be effective on middle schoolers. 

Your personal belief in Noah Miller does not change the fact that he's done nothing but show a very poor ability to hit professional pitching in 3 full seasons. You've yet to support that belief with anything other than blind faith. Wanting to believe that he'll be a "1st class hitter" isn't proof that it will happen. 

RpR

Posted

Well the Twins let Rortvedt go and he is a well above average fielder (He threw a Twins runner out this week  in a Spring Training game) but the FO let him go, SO,  it seems they do not want to teach gents, for whom hitting is not a natural item, how to make it better.


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