15 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

You can't just try to bury emotional arguments that are completely detached from any real scouting report in between 2 obvious truths and act like it's also a fact. That might only be effective on middle schoolers. 

Your personal belief in Noah Miller does not change the fact that he's done nothing but show a very poor ability to hit professional pitching in 3 full seasons. You've yet to support that belief with anything other than blind faith. Wanting to believe that he'll be a "1st class hitter" isn't proof that it will happen. 

Ozzie Smith and Bud Harrelson both were not good hitters but were GG and All Stars and played for at least 15 years, so being a top rank fielder should not be ignored good bat or not.

20 minutes ago, RpR said:

Ozzie Smith and Bud Harrelson both were not good hitters but were GG and All Stars and played for at least 15 years, so being a top rank fielder should not be ignored good bat or not.

Harrelson probably doesn’t play in today’s league…certainly doesn’t hold down a starting role. Very different game. Even Ozzie Smith is automatically significantly less valuable in todays game…way fewer balls put into play, and fewer infield ground balls. Gotta have at least some pop in the bat in today’s game. But, yes…if Miller is Ozzie Smith, the Twins shouldn’t have traded him for a back up center-fielder.

11 minutes ago, RpR said:

Ozzie Smith and Bud Harrelson both were not good hitters but were GG and All Stars and played for at least 15 years, so being a top rank fielder should not be ignored good bat or not.

If Noah Miller were as good as Ozzie Smith, he wouldn't have been ranked in the 20's on Twins prospect lists. Ozzie Smith's career MLB batting average is 42 points higher than Noah Millers rookie ball/low-A/high-A batting average. From 1982-1993 he was essentially a league average hitter with an OPS+ of 96, and all he did on the diamond in that time was win 11 consecutive Gold Gloves. 

Miguel Rojas seems like a more apt comparison, and Miguel Rojas is a fine player! I've never said that good defense at short is a bad thing, but you've also got to look at the long term Twins roster. They're already full in the infield for the next 6 years with Lewis/Correa/Julien/Lee, which is not to mention the plethora of middle infielders who are further along than Miller. Even if Correa needs to be moved off short in the next few years, which I'd consider pretty unlikely, you're just not going to play Miller every day over one of Lewis/Julien/Lee.

16 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

 

Harrelson probably doesn’t play in today’s league…certainly doesn’t hold down a starting role. Very different game. Even Ozzie Smith is automatically significantly less valuable in todays game…way fewer balls put into play, and fewer infield ground balls. Gotta have at least some pop in the bat in today’s game. But, yes…if Miller is Ozzie Smith, the Twins shouldn’t have traded him for a back up center-fielder.

Multi-Gold Glove Andrelton Simmons played in todays game and was similar in skills to both.

If you read his history his glove got him into the Major League; Defense still counts, a lot.

14 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

If Noah Miller were as good as Ozzie Smith, he wouldn't have been ranked in the 20's on Twins prospect lists. Ozzie Smith's career MLB batting average is 42 points higher than Noah Millers rookie ball/low-A/high-A batting average. From 1982-1993 he was essentially a league average hitter with an OPS+ of 96, and all he did on the diamond in that time was win 11 consecutive Gold Gloves. 

Miguel Rojas seems like a more apt comparison, and Miguel Rojas is a fine player! I've never said that good defense at short is a bad thing, but you've also got to look at the long term Twins roster. They're already full in the infield for the next 6 years with Lewis/Correa/Julien/Lee, which is not to mention the plethora of middle infielders who are further along than Miller. Even if Correa needs to be moved off short in the next few years, which I'd consider pretty unlikely, you're just not going to play Miller every day over one of Lewis/Julien/Lee.

I understand what you are saying, BUT,  here are Smiths first four Major League years:

His SLG, OPS are some thing that would have so many here saying DFA, DFA, DAF.

10 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Miller, was the best SS we had in our system which has a lot of value. But the Twins looks at him & see that he's not a HR hitter so by their standard he's worthless & they project this to the fanbase. That's what I fault with this organization. They should have seen his worth, seen he's not an HR hitter, set him aside & helped him to become a good hitter & OB machine.

Apparently, he failed to sufficiently impress Annie Savoy.

I’d never sleep with a player hitting under .250, not unless he had a lot of RBIs _and_ was a great glove man up the middle

16 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

But the Twins looks at him & see that he's not a HR hitter so by their standard he's worthless & they project this to the fanbase.

This sentence is about as emotional as it gets. 

It's one thing to disagree with a trade but when you are saying that the Twins think Miller is WORTHLESS to support your point... you are embellishing, escalating your rhetoric. I highly doubt that the Twins felt Noah Miller was worthless. 

Again... It's OK to disagree with a trade but at least consider the possibility that instead of the Twins thinking Noah is worthless maybe the Dodgers think he is worth something. Trades take two to tango. You have to consider the other team. There are miles of gray into between black and white.  

Deep Breath Doctor Gast. 

18 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

My point with Martin is he hit 2 HRs in the whole '22 season at AA while trying to be an HR hitter & when he stopped trying to be an HR hitter he hit 8 HRs in half of the '23 season at AAA & AFL. Prorated that to a full season comes to 16 HRs, which is not too shabby.

Good point Doc. Thanks.

13 hours ago, RpR said:

I understand what you are saying, BUT,  here are Smiths first four Major League years:

His SLG, OPS are some thing that would have so many here saying DFA, DFA, DAF.

 

Ozzie Smith also played at a time in baseball where he only played 1 year in Low-A ball and then they just decided to give him the job out of spring training the next year. In that one year in the minors, Ozzie Smith hit .303/.391/.362. 

Also, that first season at 82 OPS+ is basically the year-adjusted production Noah Miller has put up in the low minors so far, except in the majors. In 1978 the average OPS in the National League was .692. In 2023, the average OPS in MLB was .734.

Lastly, I don't think it's a realistic assumption to think that Noah Miller would immediately become a Gold Glove contender if they just threw him out there like San Diego did with Ozzie. Bobby Witt, Jeremy Pena, Anthony Volpe are all very good defenders already and only getting better as they get experience. 

14 hours ago, RpR said:

I understand what you are saying, BUT,  here are Smiths first four Major League years:

His SLG, OPS are some thing that would have so many here saying DFA, DFA, DAF.

 

One last thing, here are the Padres season records leading up to them handing Ozzie the starting job. That '78 Padres team was in a much different spot than the Twins to absorb a black hole in the lineup to see what might develop.

And putting him out there didn't really help them win outside of his aforementioned rookie season where he was just below average and not horrible at the plate.

9 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Apparently, he failed to sufficiently impress Annie Savoy.

 

I’d never sleep with a player hitting under .250, not unless he had a lot of RBIs _and_ was a great glove man up the middle

Evidently he would have passed Annie Savoy standards but failed the Twins sole standard of HRs/ SOs

Two things:

Miller is an excellent defender, which is valuable, and not much of a hitter, which makes him less so. He's only 21 this year so he's unlikely to be ready for a substantial role in the majors before 2026 or 2027. There are other good SS prospects in the system that are ranked above him and also several years out, and that makes him a flawed piece for the future, which is to say trade bait.

And that's fine. Between Correa, Lee and Lewis (and Farmer and Castro) there's little need for a young SS in the next 2-3 years, so having a ready glove at AA isn't that important to this organization. If Correa's foot falls off and Lee gets fat and Lewis blows his knee out again we can play Farmer or Castro for a year and figure things out from there. Maybe DaAndrade  will be ready or Martin can fill in or we extend Castro. Whatever, there's no guarantee that Miller will be a better option then. This trade is moving a 2027 piece in order to compete while the window is open.  Noah Miller is exactly the guy to trade in that moment.

Meanwhile the essay that triggered this has little to do with Miller, it's about people complaining that they don't root for the Yankees or Dodgers. We've been over this before: MN has middle-rank money and spends at about that level.  The old Pohlad holding the purse had an aversion to large and long contracts, but this new Pohlad has shown himself more amenable to big moves. He took some chances in the recent past (Buxton, Correa) and then he backed down from that big payroll as the money situation got muddled, but there's no evidence that this is a Nutting-like hibernation.

This interview simply said No More Huge Contracts At This Time and everyone lost their minds. That's childish and shows some serious object permanence issues. Just because the big dollars vanished today doesn't mean they're gone, it means that we've got a decent lineup and the wallet went back into the pocket. He could pull it out later and you might get a tater tot when you least expect it. Does anyone recall the high expectations that we were going to pick up Correa or Grey? You better say no, because those deals came out of nowhere and everyone celebrated. Surprise tater tots are awesome, but remember that what makes them great is that they aren't the standard, they're treats. MN has never been a big free agent destination, and recent changes haven't moved that needle a lot. In fact until the larger revenue model is resolved (probably after 2026 in the next CBA) there's little chance that we'll choose someone else's stars over our young emerging stars. The next few big dollar deals this front office will sign will go to guys you already know: Lewis, Ryan, Ober, Duran rather than 30-somethings from other organizations.

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

This sentence is about as emotional as it gets. 

It's one thing to disagree with a trade but when you are saying that the Twins think Miller is WORTHLESS to support your point... you are embellishing, escalating your rhetoric. I highly doubt that the Twins felt Noah Miller was worthless. 

Again... It's OK to disagree with a trade but at least consider the possibility that instead of the Twins thinking Noah is worthless maybe the Dodgers think he is worth something. Trades take two to tango. You have to consider the other team. There are miles of gray into between black and white.  

Deep Breath Doctor Gast. 

The point of this blog to show how the Twins overrate HRs where they overlook a player's weakness to strike out & underrate everything else, in this case defense (in comparison to HRs,  defense is worthless) & how they need to put adequate importance on defense, baserunning & clutch hitting. 

To be more like the LAD who has a much better player evaluation, which they can see value in players that their original team could not see &  then capitalize on them. One case that comes to mind is Chris Taylor. Who became World Series hero & fan favorite. Taylor loves LAD because they valued him & was able to turn him into the player he was meant to be.

Quote

On June 19, 2016, the Mariners traded Taylor to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for Zach Lee. Seattle Mariners General Manager Jerry Dipoto would later regret making this trade by calling it "clearly the worst deal I've ever made."

Of course, LAD saw value in Noah Miller that's why they targeted him, what gets me is that the Twins could not see it. LAD strikes again, They sold the Twins on Margot who they wanted to move & picked up a desired elite SS. 

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

The point of this blog to show how the Twins overrate HRs where they overlook a player's weakness to strike out & underrate everything else, in this case defense (in comparison to HRs,  defense is worthless) & how they need to put adequate importance on defense, baserunning & clutch hitting. 

To be more like the LAD who has a much better player evaluation, which they can see value in players that their original team could not see &  then capitalize on them. One case that comes to mind is Chris Taylor. Who became World Series hero & fan favorite. Taylor loves LAD because they valued him & was able to turn him into the player he was meant to be.

You are a solid poster... I enjoy your posts... I got what you were saying when I read the blog. I'm just saying that when you type that the Twins thought that Noah Miller was worthless... you jumped the shark and you are using embellishment to sell it.  

If I were to guess and my guesses are just as worthless as everyone else around here. I'd be more inclined to believe the exact opposite. 

I'd be more inclined to look at the timing and guess (without the information needed to guess) that Kike Hernandez was involved in this trade since his signing with the Dodgers was nearly simultaneous. 

A. The Dodgers couldn't entertain signing Kike due to roster space. They needed to move someone off the 26 man for the roster space. The Twins were entertaining the signing of of Kike while looking for a decent CF in case needed and also slide into a short side platoon with Wallner or Kirilloff or Larnach. 

B. Kike probably wanted to go back to the Dodgers. Knowing Kike's wishes... Either the Dodgers called the Twins or the Twins called the Dodgers and they helped each other out. The Dodgers would trade Margot to open up space for Kike. The Twins would get a better defensive OF'er to take that last spot. 

C. They talk about a trade... The Dodgers like Miller but the Twins don't want to give up Miller because the Twins do indeed value him... so in order to make the trade work. The Twins ask the Dodgers to include 8 million dollars and a prospect who is actually rated in the same ball park as Noah Miller. 

Noah Miller isn't done cooking yet. He was a supplemental 1st rounder just a couple of years into his career. What he is going to become... he hasn't become yet. It would be amazingly impetuous for the Twins to tag him as worthless in this short of period. 

Like I said... It's one thing to disagree with a trade... It's another thing to embellish the point by claiming that the Twins don't value Miller. 

There is no chance that the Twins didn't value Miller. I think my theory while worthless is more plausible. 😉 

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

You are a solid poster... I enjoy your posts... I got what you were saying when I read the blog. I'm just saying that when you type that the Twins thought that Noah Miller was worthless... you jumped the shark and you are using embellishment to sell it.  

If I were to guess and my guesses are just as worthless as everyone else around here. I'd be more inclined to believe the exact opposite. 

I'd be more inclined to look at the timing and guess (without the information needed to guess) that Kike Hernandez was involved in this trade since his signing with the Dodgers was nearly simultaneous. 

A. The Dodgers couldn't entertain signing Kike due to roster space. They needed to move someone off the 26 man for the roster space. The Twins were entertaining the signing of of Kike while looking for a decent CF in case needed and also slide into a short side platoon with Wallner or Kirilloff or Larnach. 

B. Kike probably wanted to go back to the Dodgers. Knowing Kike's wishes... Either the Dodgers called the Twins or the Twins called the Dodgers and they helped each other out. The Dodgers would trade Margot to open up space for Kike. The Twins would get a better defensive OF'er to take that last spot. 

C. They talk about a trade... The Dodgers like Miller but the Twins don't want to give up Miller because the Twins do indeed value him... so in order to make the trade work. The Twins ask the Dodgers to include 8 million dollars and a prospect who is actually rated in the same ball park as Noah Miller. 

Noah Miller isn't done cooking yet. He was a supplemental 1st rounder just a couple of years into his career. What he is going to become... he hasn't become yet. It would be amazingly impetuous for the Twins to tag him as worthless in this short of period. 

Like I said... It's one thing to disagree with a trade... It's another thing to embellish the point by claiming that the Twins don't value Miller. 

There is no chance that the Twins didn't value Miller. I think my theory while worthless is more plausible. 😉 

 

 

 

I appreciate that Brian, but like I stated, I used the term worthless relative to how they value HRs to defense. So please don't get hung up on that. We agree that LAD was motivated to move Margot but that $ wasn't negotiable, it automatically came with Margot from TB (not theory, fact), Miller won the GG 2nd year into pro-ball, he's an elite SS which is very hard to come by. He's a switch hitter which adds to his potential. We have a lot of big bats/ mediocre SSs we could have offered LAD but LAD wanted super undervalued Miller & they wanted Hernandez, we didn't have to trade for Margot we could have gone FA. We had all the leverage so we could decline trading Miller & insist on one of our bigger bats/ lesser gloves in trade instead. So the fact that the Twins settled on giving up Miller when they didn't have to, over a different player tells me they didn't really value Miller. `Throwing in a big bat/ weak glove SS (a Sano type) low lotto ticket to add to the glut doesn't do anything for me & nowhere near the ballpark to replace Miller.

25 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I appreciate that Brian, but like I stated, I used the term worthless relative to how they value HRs to defense. So please don't get hung up on that. We agree that LAD was motivated to move Margot but that $ wasn't negotiable, it automatically came with Margot from TB (not theory, fact), Miller won the GG 2nd year into pro-ball, he's an elite SS which is very hard to come by. He's a switch hitter which adds to his potential. We have a lot of big bats/ mediocre SSs we could have offered LAD but LAD wanted super undervalued Miller & they wanted Hernandez, we didn't have to trade for Margot we could have gone FA. We had all the leverage so we could decline trading Miller & insist on one of our bigger bats/ lesser gloves in trade instead. So the fact that the Twins settled on giving up Miller over a different player tells me they didn't really value Miller. `Throwing in a big bat/ weak glove SS (a Sano type) low lotto ticket to add to the glut doesn't do anything for me & nowhere near the ballpark to replace Miller.

Could be but I'm not sure that I agree that the Twins value HR's to defense. Slugging to K rate... I'll agree. 

I'd be in the camp that says they over value defense at times... but then again... I tend to value big bats over defense and I'm extremely distrustful of zone rating defensive measurements. So I'm coming from the opposite direction that you are. Individual perspective is subjective and a funny thing that provides the DIS in these DIScussions. Twinsdaily would be boring with a bunch of yep I agree responses without our varied opinions. 😄

I think it could be argued that Margot was primarily a defensive addition to the club. His bat is certainly so-so. So in my mind... he's a defensive addition. 

I would certainly be ready to argue with anyone that Max Kepler was a defensive specialist for 2.5 years. 

I'd say Taylor was a defense first consideration. I think Urshela was a fantastic defensive 3B with a so-so bat. 

Simmons... His bat was about as bad as it gets. Still played every day. 

In this case... I don't know Miller from a Giraffe. I've read articles but never seen him play. I'll take you at your word that he is what you say he is. If he is... there is no way the Twins didn't value that at the SS position. Under Valued... Over Valued... I don't know but time will tell. In the meantime... I'm going to give Margot his chance to win me over and I'm going to give this kid that the Dodgers sent over a chance to get better. Let's see what happens. 

On 2/27/2024 at 6:58 AM, Doctor Gast said:

I give up. I know many have no idea what I'm saying. For things to get better things have to change & this FO is not going to change where everything is filtered by big bats. Miller is an elite SS who has promise to become a very good hitter & should become our future SS. but he doesn't have a big bat so he's dispensible. Miller's talents & being super undervalued, he should have been untouchable but this FO didn't see it that way.

This trade greatly helped LAD to add future depth to their questionable key position of SS. LAD will teach Miller to become a hitter, not how to strike out. LAD wanted to dump Margot to pick up Hernandez. The SS lotto ticket we got will add to the mediocre SS heap we have that probably won't stick but he has raw power, just what we need. Margot like all the new additions doesn't fill any need but only adds backfill & replacement of well-qualified in-house players would have filled, at the expense of our needed assets. LAD is playing chess where they are a couple of moves ahead. While the Twins are playing Tic-Tac-Toe. Our real needs are a postseason starter, upgrades to our dismal catching depth & catching development. Those were not touched.

This FO has been lucky, in '19, Schoop influenced Cruz to come to MN & of course the "juiced ball". '20 was the perfect storm for Maeda, Many good trades (Lopez, Gray, Ryan & Maeda) & Correa fell into their laps that came into fruition in '23. But when things don't fall into their laps they are absolutely terrible. Unless they still trade Vazquez or he, Lewis or Lopez significantly get hurt (heaven forbid). The Twins will win the division but the postseason will be disappointing. The one thing that this FO does well is spin hype.

Like I said I give up, this is my last blog. I have given up hope that this FO will ever change or this ownership will ever fire them or the Twins will ever win another World Series. So pile up those thumbs down, quote me & try to undo what I said. I don't care. I'm no longer going to rock the boat, so enjoy your Kool-Aid party while you can.

I know I am late to this particular party, so to speak, but I agree with your assessment completely.  And I sure would hate to see this be your last blog. 

7 hours ago, Mark G said:

I know I am late to this particular party, so to speak, but I agree with your assessment completely.  And I sure would hate to see this be your last blog. 

Thanks Mark. I'm pretty frustrated, it's hard for me to listen to any Twins podcast with all the hype going on. I listen more to other teams' podcasts, especially those with promising catching. It has been refreshing to listen to them give an actual scouting report, stating that this prospect blocks pitches really well, throws out runners at a high rate, able to handle the rotation, or have a keen sense of what's going on around them. 

I'm expecting to give this a rest. Maybe start up again next year.       :)

42 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thanks Mark. I'm pretty frustrated, it's hard for me to listen to any Twins podcast with all the hype going on. I listen more to other teams' podcasts, especially those with promising catching. It has been refreshing to listen to them give an actual scouting report, stating that this prospect blocks pitches really well, throws out runners at a high rate, able to handle the rotation, or have a keen sense of what's going on around them. 

I'm expecting to give this a rest. Maybe start up again next year.       :)

Well I, for one, am looking forward to the next post!  And trust me........I know what it is like to be in the minority here sometimes........:)