I can see Ober maybe 170, but Paddack around 125 and Desclafini is anyones guess, but IMO they may get 120

Shortly after I posted this blog, I ran into "Baseball Today" with Chris Rose & Trevor Plouffe brought this same article up. 

Nobody in the organization cares what Bailey Ober or Chris Paddack said in a Spring Training interview about how many innings they expect to throw….,,,,just be happy they didn’t say 140 & 100. At least they want to compete!

Didn't read the article but I am confused about your comments about velo & spin rates being raised to new ceilings with “the innings expectations of yesteryear”……nobody, save a half dozen guys in the game pitch innings anywhere near guys from even 20 years ago. 200 innings is a huge amount. Any starter getting to 180 innings is a WORKHORSE. 135 - 170 seems to be a typical range for somebody with decent success and no serious injuries.

I wonder how much it helps if a pitcher does something like 2 high stress pitches then a low stress pitch then a high stress pitch then a low stress then 2 high stress……… Just to give the elbow a breather in game.  I wonder how much that helps protect against the arm?  

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Nobody in the organization cares what Bailey Ober or Chris Paddack said in a Spring Training interview about how many innings they expect to throw….,,,,just be happy they didn’t say 140 & 100. At least they want to compete!

Didn't read the article but I am confused about your comments about velo & spin rates being raised to new ceilings with “the innings expectations of yesteryear”……nobody, save a half dozen guys in the game pitch innings anywhere near guys from even 20 years ago. 200 innings is a huge amount. Any starter getting to 180 innings is a WORKHORSE. 135 - 170 seems to be a typical range for somebody with decent success and no serious injuries.

Pitchers of yesteryear it wasn't uncommon for pitchers to pitch a complete game but their velo & spin rates normally weren't very high. With the added stress on the arm with the increasing velo & spin rates, the author stated that this caused pitchers to have more injuries & shorter careers. IMO if you reduce the innings pitch/ game you can save the pitcher's arm, avoid injuries & have more quality innings. # of innings will be determined by age, type of pitcher & DNA.

I agree that you want your pitchers to want to stay on the mound as long as possible. But as fans, we need to see the reality & not put our expectations on what pitchers say. Paddack was in good condition heading into the '22 season but didn't last long. Desclafani has the same condition Paddack had but he's having problems at the start of ST. I don't see him having any kind of season before he needs TJ.

I also agree how the Twins are handling Raya, he's young & needs to be taken slowly, to preserve his arm as he physically develops. I expect the same for Soto.

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Pitchers of yesteryear it wasn't uncommon for pitchers to pitch a complete game but their velo & spin rates normally weren't very high. With the added stress on the arm with the increasing velo & spin rates, the author stated that this caused pitchers to have more injuries & shorter careers. IMO if you reduce the innings pitch/ game you can save the pitcher's arm, avoid injuries & have more quality innings.

I agree that you want your pitchers to want to stay on the mound as long as possible. But as fans, we need to see the reality & not put our expectations on what pitchers say. Paddack was in good condition heading into the '22 season but didn't last long. Desclafani has the same condition Paddack had but he's having problems at the start of ST. I don't see him having any kind of season before he needs TJ.

No doubt DeSclafani is a potential problem. He’s been hurt about 40-50% of his time in the Majors. 

I don’t see the Team letting OBER go much more than 170 innings in regular season. PADDACK, maybe 125 innings. Guys like SWR & Festa will be key from July onward. Varland is pretty strong and has been building up - I think he’s good for 110 plus innings this year.

Lopez -185

Ryan - 175

Ober - 165

Paddack - 115

Varland - 110

SWR - 40

Festa - 50

DeSclafani - 60??

That’s 558 innings for the Pen divided by 10 -11 guys……….maybe some additional “starter innings”?

On 3/9/2024 at 9:23 AM, Brandon said:

I wonder how much it helps if a pitcher does something like 2 high stress pitches then a low stress pitch then a high stress pitch then a low stress then 2 high stress……… Just to give the elbow a breather in game.  I wonder how much that helps protect against the arm?  

It is good to think in terms like this, and I'm no medical expert, but I think the issue is micro-tears in the muscle tissue, and it takes longer than 60 seconds, or whatever period of time you seem to have in mind, for those tears to knit back together.  Less stress to result in fewer tears would be one avenue, but then I suspect the hitters tee off on those cripple pitches - then the pitcher goes to the showers sooner where he can begin to rest up, so I guess there's that.

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

It is good to think in terms like this, and I'm no medical expert, but I think the issue is micro-tears in the muscle tissue, and it takes longer than 60 seconds, or whatever period of time you seem to have in mind, for those tears to knit back together.  Less stress to result in fewer tears would be one avenue, but then I suspect the hitters tee off on those cripple pitches - then the pitcher goes to the showers sooner where he can begin to rest up, so I guess there's that.

It depends on how you use your less stress pitches.  I think the curveball is less stress than a fastball.  Also you can throw just off the plate if you want to take something off the fastball.  I remember Jack Morris would throw a Euphis pitch every once in a while to throw hitters off.  Just gotta get creative with your strategy and have a plan for each at bat.  

11 minutes ago, Brandon said:

It depends on how you use your less stress pitches.  I think the curveball is less stress than a fastball.  Also you can throw just off the plate if you want to take something off the fastball.  I remember Jack Morris would throw a Euphis pitch every once in a while to throw hitters off.  Just gotta get creative with your strategy and have a plan for each at bat.  

Sounds a bit like the really old Pitching In A Pinch strategy, which certainly has its merits.  Purposely throwing "just off the plate" starts to sound like "nibbling", which is a similar strategy that has fallen into disfavor, at least in TD-land.  And a typical pitcher's command/control isn't as fine as we might hope, for that to work.  The more you avoid clipping the strike zone, the higher the pitch counts become, which may become an issue - throw enough of the low-stress pitches and it's a question of how much if anything you are saving in terms of wear and tear, because every pitch causes some stress.  Getting a swing and a miss outside the strike zone is of course to be desired, but maybe you need to display a bit of your "stuff" to make that happen, and now we're back to wondering about which pitches cause the least stress.  If a low-stress pitch has the stuff and gets outs, sure, great.

I suspect the catcher and/or the bench already take your ideas into account when calling the game, and moving too far from their mix would end up counterproductive, not just in terms of game result but also arm health.  Throwing 120 pitches per start and wriggling out of jam after jam to eke out 5 innings could be bad for the arm even if most every pitch is nominally "low stress."  Of course I'm painting the opposite picture from what you're proposing, but I think it's in the realm of possibility.

Depends on the pitcher.

26 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Sounds a bit like the really old Pitching In A Pinch strategy, which certainly has its merits.  Purposely throwing "just off the plate" starts to sound like "nibbling", which is a similar strategy that has fallen into disfavor, at least in TD-land.  And a typical pitcher's command/control isn't as fine as we might hope, for that to work.  The more you avoid clipping the strike zone, the higher the pitch counts become, which may become an issue - throw enough of the low-stress pitches and it's a question of how much if anything you are saving in terms of wear and tear, because every pitch causes some stress.  Getting a swing and a miss outside the strike zone is of course to be desired, but maybe you need to display a bit of your "stuff" to make that happen, and now we're back to wondering about which pitches cause the least stress.  If a low-stress pitch has the stuff and gets outs, sure, great.

I suspect the catcher and/or the bench already take your ideas into account when calling the game, and moving too far from their mix would end up counterproductive, not just in terms of game result but also arm health.  Throwing 120 pitches per start and wriggling out of jam after jam to eke out 5 innings could be bad for the arm even if most every pitch is nominally "low stress."  Of course I'm painting the opposite picture from what you're proposing, but I think it's in the realm of possibility.

Depends on the pitcher.

Greg Maddox is the pitcher model that I consider as he never threw too hard and was very efficient with his pitches.  Obviously not all results are equal.  I am not a professional itch analyst maybe the 40% number is high maybe just take something off 10-25 pitches a game.  But I do see merit in picking spots to dial it back to save more bullets for when really needed.  Also in blowout games starting pitchers would take stuff off their pitches and not worry about giving up a few runs in games they already won.  This was done back in the 90’s

Also Ashbury.  I think you have good points.  I’m bouncing ideas from them 

5 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Greg Maddox is the pitcher model that I consider as he never threw too hard and was very efficient with his pitches.  Obviously not all results are equal.

If Greg Maddux could bottle what he knew how to do and sell it to others, he'd be a millionaire.  Oh wait, he already is. 😀

Oh, and I agree, good chat.

IMHO reduction in starting pitchers innings has little to nothing to do with starters striving for higher spin rates and higher velocity, or even to the fact of people wanting to protect their arms.  If they were looking to protect their arms they would be wanting to protect their arms FOR something.  and what is that FOR in todays game? It is not liek they are protecting young arms so they can go deeper in games later in their career, or later in games in "BIG TIME GAMES".  AT some point it morphs from "protecting arms" to "He's never gone more than X innings" to after a number of years... "he has X number of innings under his arm".

Ultimately it is all about analytics, and the fact that it is not the STARTING pitchers with increased velocity and spin rate, but EVERYONE has higher spin rate and velocity., and more about analytics and the philosophy of the game.

If a manager feels there is a 1.75% better chance of getting through an inning by bringing a fresh arm (with that high velocity and spin rate) as oppose to letting a pitcher face a lineup for a third time. then it does not matter how much of a spin rate that starter has, or how much velocity that starter has, the manager is going to pull the starter and bring in the "fresh arm".

For good or for bad (for me it is for bad, btu that is just my preference) the game has changed,  Anyone of these pitchers in teh gaem today COULD go 8 innings consistently, and COULD throw 250+ innings per year. It may have STARTED by wanting to protect pitchers arms when starters started getting paid big bucks, but the main driver now is the analytics, and the fact that you can use your farm system to constantly rotate fresh bullpen arms through. Analytics has just simply "devalued" the starting pitcher (ironically despite quality starting pitching getting more and more expensive each year).

I know this will trigger some strong responses, but I think one issue that is being missed is the current infatuation with strikeouts. No stats to back it up, but gut feel is that a typical AB that ends in a K will require 5+ pitches. The heart of the “pitch to contact”, or more accurately “pitch to weak contact” philosophy popular during the Terry Ryan tenure was to limit the number of pitches. Retire hitters on 2 or 3 pitches resulting in fly out/groundouts rather than chasing high K totals. The end result, ideally, is lower pitch counts per inning and therefore longer starts in innings for the same number of pitches. 
it is great to have “strikeout stuff” when you need one but too much focus on K’s throughout the game may be part of the problem. 
l look forward to the flow of stats that either support or dispute this idea. 

1 hour ago, Elliot said:

I know this will trigger some strong responses, but I think one issue that is being missed is the current infatuation with strikeouts. No stats to back it up, but gut feel is that a typical AB that ends in a K will require 5+ pitches. The heart of the “pitch to contact”, or more accurately “pitch to weak contact” philosophy popular during the Terry Ryan tenure was to limit the number of pitches. Retire hitters on 2 or 3 pitches resulting in fly out/groundouts rather than chasing high K totals. The end result, ideally, is lower pitch counts per inning and therefore longer starts in innings for the same number of pitches. 
it is great to have “strikeout stuff” when you need one but too much focus on K’s throughout the game may be part of the problem. 
l look forward to the flow of stats that either support or dispute this idea. 

You might have something there, Elliot. With less importance put on defense & Ks are sexier than pitch-to-contact. Teams trended away from it. I'm also interested on what the stats show 

22 hours ago, Elliot said:

I know this will trigger some strong responses, but I think one issue that is being missed is the current infatuation with strikeouts. No stats to back it up, but gut feel is that a typical AB that ends in a K will require 5+ pitches. The heart of the “pitch to contact”, or more accurately “pitch to weak contact” philosophy popular during the Terry Ryan tenure was to limit the number of pitches. Retire hitters on 2 or 3 pitches resulting in fly out/groundouts rather than chasing high K totals. The end result, ideally, is lower pitch counts per inning and therefore longer starts in innings for the same number of pitches. 
it is great to have “strikeout stuff” when you need one but too much focus on K’s throughout the game may be part of the problem. 
l look forward to the flow of stats that either support or dispute this idea. 

Quick and dirty data for starter league-wide and the Twins 

2003: Starters averaged 94 pitches per game and 5.9 IP/game for 15.93 pitches/inning. Twins were 92, 6.0, 15.33

2023: Starters averaged 85 pitches per game and 5.1 IP/game for 16.67 pitches/inning. Twins were 88, 5.5, 16.0

Pitchers are throwing, on average, 0.74 more pitches per inning than they were 20 years ago. Assuming on average 4 batters faced per inning, that's around 0.18 more pitches per batter faced - or 1 extra pitch per 5.5 batters faced.

Seems interesting, but fairly insignificant to me. 

Driveline did some biomechanics study on different pitches and the stress placed on the pitcher's arm.
Overall, there were no pitches more stressful on the arm than the fastball. Basically, velocity was the main stressor in pitching. If curveballs were thrown as fast as fastballs, they'd be the most stressful pitch, but they're not so I'm not sure it's relevant. It's also worth considering how the increased velocity was modeled to determine whether or not it was even accurate.

In young pitchers, the slider was most likely to generate pain.

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2017/02/fastballs-offspeed-pitches-comparative-relative-elbow-stress/

In regard to how hard pitchers are throwing now vs. how hard they used to throw, I'm not sure how reliable older data was. Starters Avg Fastball
2002 - Max 94.5mph, 10th Best 92.3mph,  Median 88.8mph, 10th Worst 84.9mph (85 Qualified)
2005 - Max 95.6mph, 10th Best 92.7mph,  Median 89.5mph, 10th Worst 86.4mph (93 Qualified)
2010 - Max 96.1mph, 10th Best 93.5mph, Median 91.3mph, 10th Worst 88.2mph (92 Qualified)
2015 - Max 96.4mph, 10th Best 94.6mph, Median 91.9mph, 10th Worst 89.4mph (78 Qualified)
2019 - Max 97.7mph, 10th Best 94.9mph, Median 92.9mph, 10th Worst 90.5mph (61 Qualified)
2023 - Max 97.8mph, 10th Best 95.6mph, Median 94.4mph, 10th Worst 92.4mph (44 Qualified)

I think there's a pretty clear trend. There wasn't a huge increase in average pitcher velocity through 2010, it was just  a drop off on the lowest velocity guys.

We start to see a trend of hyper focusing on velocity by 2015 with a significant jump in median and max velocities afterwards with a rapidly declining count of pitchers who are able to qualify. Max velocity for the top pitchers seems to have spiked out at this point, but there's still a hyper focus on pushing all pitcher velocity northward, and there's a plummeting number of them who will qualify as a result. While this method probably produces the best results in a playoff rotation, getting to the playoffs is maybe a different story. Unfortunately, all the way down into high school, pitchers know scouts want to see velocity, velocity, velocity. The number of pitchers who have developed 4 or 5 potential pitch offerings has declined while the number of 2-3 pitcher flamethrowers has seemingly increased. Even if there is more value in drafting and developing pitchers with somewhat lower velocities, but better stuff who could potentially be as good as mid-rotation, those pitchers may not exist in significant numbers.

Maybe pitchers should try to emulate Walter Johnson's pitching motion.  Minimal stress on the arm.

If I am remembering correctly from past threads the best indicator of future TJ surgery was velocity in high school. With travel teams and clinics, many kids who are drafted play baseball at least 9 months a year. Also in my area (NJ) it is almost impossible to pitch on a high school team without having a private pitching coach by the time you are in 8th grade. What do most of them teach—mechanics to deliver max velocity. 
 

Tom Glavine gave an interview about this many years ago indicating that he didn’t have a pitching coach until he was in the Braves organization. 

One thing pitchers and fans need to think about is that only a few pitchers are HOF level pitchers and can put their arm through what it takes to pitch deep into games a high level for years.  They are not common humans.  Nolan Ryan was one of the first super high velo pitchers that could seem to do it forever.  In this day in age Justin Verlander is closest to that.  Part of the problem in my mind, is that teams, and pitchers, look at peak ability and want that every time out.  

Pitchers are putting forces on their elbow that only the super humans used to be able to do.  It is no surprise they break down at higher rates now. The pitchers do this because if you cannot throw at 95 plus, which used to be really fast, you are not likely to even get looked at. Could you imagine if a guy like Brad Radke tried to make majors these days?  What about Trevor Hoffman, a HOF closer, he topped out at 95, and eventually lost that velo to below 90, for most of his career, and was one of best closers.  He did it with change of speed, not with high velo. Greg Maddux topped out at around 93 early in career, but he got it done with movement and pin point location. 

None of those guys would have a shot this day in age, or would not be considered top guys because their velo does not put them up there.  Most likely they would have changed up their approach if they were coming up this day in age.  However, the starters of the past understood you needed to save some in the tank to get deep into games.  You did not reach for max spin or max velo every pitch.  The really good ones would change up the velo on the fastball even.  

I could never hit a high velo fastball, I personally believe that change in speeds and mixing up location is harder for a hitter to be on a pitch more than just velo. I hate reading that because a guy sits at low 90's velo he is not going to be a good pitcher.  There is more than 1 way to get a guy out. 

This is just the natural progression of hitters vs pitchers. Hitters get better so pitchers have to get better. Once the pitchers get better the hitters have to get better. That's the constant adjustment of professional baseball. Add in the overwhelming amount of information we can produce about guys now and this is what you get. 

Maddux is the guy everyone tends to point to as an example of "see, it can be done another way," but that's like pointing to Michael Jordan and saying "why don't guys just do what he did?" Could Maddux survive in today's game? Absolutely. Would he have been as good? That's a tougher question to answer. Guys see movement like his all the time now. Guys see changes of speed all the time now. His control would absolutely still give him a career, and he'd likely still be really good, but as dominant as he was? I don't know. It's possible, but it's also possible he'd have struggled more.

Teams don't actually care that much about player health beyond what a healthy player can provide for them. It's a cutthroat business on the field and in the executive suites. It's not easy to get a top job in a baseball operations department, and it's even harder to keep it. Those guys can't afford to be too sentimental about players. They need to produce winning teams or they get fired. With all the technology and data they have now they know what performs best on the field and do everything they can to build teams that are good at those things.

A big part of sports science in every league now is the idea that having players be able to perform as close to peak as possible while playing less is the best way to maximize your odds of winning. Randy Moss got roasted back in the day for saying he would take plays off, but now every NFL team is tracking an insane amount of player data and they're the ones taking guys out for plays (or even practices). NBA teams rest guys all the time. MLB teams have starters go shorter and give position players rest days. It's the smart thing to do if you're in charge of a team, but it's not good for the leagues themselves as it hurts entertainment value (or fantasy value in the NFL as folks are hyper focused on touches for "their" guys). 

Professional athletes test the bounds of what's possible for the human body. Some of them seem super-human in their ability to just keep going and going. Most of them break down. The team that figures out the "perfect" balance between maximizing results and avoiding injury will enjoy a nice stretch of success while the other teams figure out how they did it and how to replicate that. Nobody has figured it out yet. I don't blame guys running teams for riding the guys on their teams as hard as they can, and I don't blame players for doing everything they can to maximize their bodies. It's a $10+ billion industry and you won't make it anywhere on the field or in the offices if you're not willing to do those things. 

Pitchers are pushing their arms beyond what they're meant to do. The max effort velocity and spin isn't going away, though. It's not good for their arms, but it's what's required of them if they want to make their MLB dreams come true. Only option is to do everything you can to maximize your body and hope it holds up. Twins fans know all too well that not all of their bodies can handle it, unfortunately.

On 3/13/2024 at 4:46 PM, terrydactyls said:

Maybe pitchers should try to emulate Walter Johnson's pitching motion.  Minimal stress on the arm.

It's so many things. Everybody everywhere wants a one-answer solution, but it's spin rate, it's pitching motion, it's genetics, and it's age and arm strength. 

But Johnson pitched forever without good healthcare (comparative to now) whereas you saw one pitch from Liriano and knew he was going under the knife at some point. (I'm not specifically responding to you, terrydactyls -- I just wanted to piggyback.

And now go on a tangent:

It's all really interesting stuff. I wonder how many pitchers enter with the philosophy that they're sacrificing their body for millions, similar to something I've heard football players say.  In short, they're getting paid handsomely and making a big personal sacrifice for it.