NOT!

3 hours ago, RpR said:

NOT!

Okay, I'll bite. What do you disagree with? I spent the time to write an entry expecting to have a dialogue about depth and reinforcements and the seemingly abrupt change in focus from having veterans available to fill in for the presumed starters and I get a thumbs down and one word response.

Do you disagree with what I stated about the Twins having depth that saved their season in 2023 or do you disagree with my assumption that the Twins will use unproven guys as replacements/reinforcements in 2024? Maybe both? 

At least you responded, maybe I shouldn't be perturbed by your (one word) posting. 

I felt that last year's depth was the real MVP. Not really one player. Castro, Taylor, Solano, Farmer all played big roles and none were starters at the beginning of the year.  I hope they do not trade Kepler, Polanco or Vasquez.  They still should have some money to spend and should be able to purchase a major league starter.  That to me is what they do not have covered right now. I do not see a starter ready in the minors when inevitably a starting pitcher gets hurt. A back up center-fielder we should be able to piece together. Bullpen there may be help in the minors. MLB ready starting pitcher not seeing it.

Good Post

@Otwins beat me to it. We finally had depth in ‘23 so we didn’t have to go into the farm during the grind of the season and trot out questionable mlb fringe guys. 
SP needs proven depth.  One 60 day il and we will be in trouble. 
position players is a different situation. 3 rookies stepped into significant roles in ‘23. 3 young players coming back from injury riddled seasons and 3 to 6 guys in AAA that could step up their game to arrive and stay in the show.  Being a young and developing team comes with downside risk but we have enough talented option to throw into any given situation and see which player will rise to the occasion.  Its going to be a very exciting year!!!

Stringer, I think you're echoing many of the concerns Twins fans have as this off season of inertia continues.  Signing Josh Staumont as a lottery ticket bullpen piece could work out but is certainly not what we as Twins are hoping for.

You're correct in pointing out that we haven't replaced either SP lost from our rotation.  I've been advocating signing one FA and trading for another because Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland and Paddack while adequate still leaves the Twins with a razor thin margin to replace anyone who spends some time on the I.L.  And of the 5 guys listed, only Lopez has shown the consistency to deliver innings.  Ryan got to 160 last year and Ober got to 144.  That's promising, but it's the first time either has reached those levels, and both spent time on the I.L.  Paddack comes into 2024 with specific innings/pitches limits right out of the gate.

Starting pitchers are starting to come off the board.  Giolito and Montas were 2 guys I thought would be good fits for the Twins.  There's still a chance to make a trade and/or sign a FA but the longer the Twins wait out the market the fewer their options will be.

Martin "might" be a good platoon in CF with Castro if Buxton crashes and burns again, but a veteran RH bat like an Adam Duval but no move has been made on that front yet either.

I think as Twins fans we're all anxious to see some moves get made now that we're in 2024.  Decreeing a substantial cut in payroll due to TV revenue "uncertainty" on the heels of winning the division seemed a bit premature and somewhat shortsighted and the fanbase certainly has a right to be disappointed in that approach.  Knowing that a Polanco, Kepler, Farmer or Vasquez probably needs to be traded just to even out any additional financial burdens in acquiring a couple of solid starting pitchers is frustrating but we as fans "get it" as well.

We want to defend that division title and we want to see the continued growth and improvement of our young core.  But each day that goes by without meaningful steps taken to address these roster issues, both frontline talent and depth, is as Joe Mauer would say "Frustrating..."  

I do believe their plan is to use minor leaguers as depth this year. Harrison Bader and Kevin Kiermaier just got $10.5 million deals so I don't see the Twins bringing MAT back as his cost likely went way up with those deals. They're not signing Bellinger and there's really no other CF options worth while on the market so they're either relying on Buxton, Castro, Gordon, and Martin or they're making another trade. I'd bet they plan to rely on those 4 until mid-February when they see what Buxton's knees are looking like. That'd be the earliest I'd expect a CF move.

Starting pitching is the only place I think they're really trying to add a legitimate outside piece. Very likely through trade if it's a bigger piece. I'd guess the Snell and Montgomery signings have to happen before any big SP trades happen. I do expect them to bring in another major league starter to push Varland to AAA, but I have no idea if they'll be able to pull off another Lopez-Arraez type deal or if they're going to get stuck snagging a Clevinger, Ryu, or Lorenzen type late in the offseason if they're just never able to find a deal. I'd think they've touched base with a number of teams already and have an idea of what sorts of assets they'd need to give up for certain guys, but those teams may change their tune in terms of acquisition cost depending on where the rest of the FAs go and what sort of competition they can drum up for their available arms. A Cease deal may have to happen before the Twins make a deal for an arm as well (I don't think they're a likely Cease destination). 

I don't expect much else in terms of movement for the roster. And I don't expect anything "big" to happen until Snell and Montgomery move. Agree that the depth definitely looks different this year, and they're going to be forced to test their development strength at some point. Prato, Helman, and Keirsey types are likely going to get shots. We'll see if any of them can outdo the Contreras types. Hopefully none are needed to play too big a role as this team should have goals that are much bigger than those guys are likely to help them achieve. But you don't have many options when you're cutting payroll. Have to trust the kids.

It’s still a little early to know for sure what the depth situation will actually wind up being, but I think the Twins are willing to roll the dice and say that they have a bunch of minor league guys that are ready to take a step forward and be valuable.  Remember, in addition to the depth they signed, they got a pretty wonderful bounce from Julien, Lewis, and Wallner.  So, depth wise:  Farmer is back (for now), Castro is back.  Miranda seems like a reasonable choice for RH bat/platoon 1B.  Austin Martin and a cast of several more seem like they could handle the CF situation.  Those might not all work out, but they are not without upside.  If the budget needs to be what it needs to be, then I’m glad these young players seem capable of filling in when necessary.  

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I do believe their plan is to use minor leaguers as depth this year. Harrison Bader and Kevin Kiermaier just got $10.5 million deals so I don't see the Twins bringing MAT back as his cost likely went way up with those deals. They're not signing Bellinger and there's really no other CF options worth while on the market so they're either relying on Buxton, Castro, Gordon, and Martin or they're making another trade. I'd bet they plan to rely on those 4 until mid-February when they see what Buxton's knees are looking like. That'd be the earliest I'd expect a CF move.

Starting pitching is the only place I think they're really trying to add a legitimate outside piece. Very likely through trade if it's a bigger piece. I'd guess the Snell and Montgomery signings have to happen before any big SP trades happen. I do expect them to bring in another major league starter to push Varland to AAA, but I have no idea if they'll be able to pull off another Lopez-Arraez type deal or if they're going to get stuck snagging a Clevinger, Ryu, or Lorenzen type late in the offseason if they're just never able to find a deal. I'd think they've touched base with a number of teams already and have an idea of what sorts of assets they'd need to give up for certain guys, but those teams may change their tune in terms of acquisition cost depending on where the rest of the FAs go and what sort of competition they can drum up for their available arms. A Cease deal may have to happen before the Twins make a deal for an arm as well (I don't think they're a likely Cease destination). 

I don't expect much else in terms of movement for the roster. And I don't expect anything "big" to happen until Snell and Montgomery move. Agree that the depth definitely looks different this year, and they're going to be forced to test their development strength at some point. Prato, Helman, and Keirsey types are likely going to get shots. We'll see if any of them can outdo the Contreras types. Hopefully none are needed to play too big a role as this team should have goals that are much bigger than those guys are likely to help them achieve. But you don't have many options when you're cutting payroll. Have to trust the kids.

Agree with the broad strokes here…….Bader signing for $10.5M is just crazy - that’s like his version of the Ohtani deal - I was shocked!

Maybe Randal Grichuk is an add in OF for depth at all 3 positions - agreed though, too much cost at $9-$11M……..he’s got good pop in his bat and has a career OPS of .769. RH bat in OF. Seems like a good potential add.

Other guy I see lots of value in, despite your slight above, is Clevinger. He threw a bit in ‘22 after returning from arm surgery. He then threw 131 innings in ‘23 with an ERA of 3.77. Was 9-9 with the lowly White Sox. I think he’s worth $13 - $14M/year …..give him a player option for year 2 so he has both security & independence with a deal. He’s the replacement for Mahle from the beginning of ‘23 season’s staff in both ability & cost.

8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Agree with the broad strokes here…….Bader signing for $10.5M is just crazy - that’s like his version of the Ohtani deal - I was shocked!

Maybe Randal Grichuk is an add in OF for depth at all 3 positions - agreed though, too much cost at $9-$11M……..he’s got good pop in his bat and has a career OPS of .769. RH bat in OF. Seems like a good potential add.

Other guy I see lots of value in, despite your slight above, is Clevinger. He threw a bit in ‘22 after returning from arm surgery. He then threw 131 innings in ‘23 with an ERA of 3.77. Was 9-9 with the lowly White Sox. I think he’s worth $13 - $14M/year …..give him a player option for year 2 so he has both security & independence with a deal. He’s the replacement for Mahle from the beginning of ‘23 season’s staff in both ability & cost.

Grichuk, Duvall, etc. wouldn't be terrible signings. Certainly not exciting ones, but I wouldn't be mad about them (depending on the cost). I do fear that they'd pull another Gallo move where they refuse to move on from them in the name of depth or cost or whatever. I don't expect anyone to be as bad as Gallo became, and I don't see a highly likely option for someone to be putting up Wallner numbers that they're blocking, but those mid- to low-tier veteran depth pieces become more harmful than helpful if the FO isn't willing to dump them when it's called for. But not crazy signings by any means.

If Clevinger is the best pitcher they bring in this offseason I'm going to be disappointed. He'd be better than the Happ, Shoemaker, broken down Archer days, but I hope (and believe) the FO is aiming higher than him. I think he's a league average pitcher. Which, again, is better than some of their offseason moves, but not what I think they should be bringing in. Thus the "stuck with" comment. If that's as high as they're aiming they should just sign him now. But I think they're aiming higher so he'd be a fall back option late in the offseason if they can't make the move they want.

"so they're either relying on Buxton, Castro, Gordon, and Martin or they're making another trade. I'd bet they plan to rely on those 4 until mid-February when they see what Buxton's knees are looking like. That'd be the earliest I'd expect a CF move."

I agree with this.  It feels like the Twins will wait until late Feb/early March to make a move on a CF.  If they think Buxton can play 80 games in CF, I think they'll be OK with current options.

At a minimum, they really need to add a solid #3 starter.  I'm hoping they are working the trade market to obtain a multi-year, affordable quality SP.

3 hours ago, Elite Benchwarmer said:

 

 

I agree with this.  It feels like the Twins will wait until late Feb/early March to make a move on a CF.  If they think Buxton can play 80 games in CF, I think they'll be OK with current options.

At a minimum, they really need to add a solid #3 starter.  I'm hoping they are working the trade market to obtain a multi-year, affordable quality SP.

 

So, this is where I think the Twins are in a bind. What is a solid #3 starter worth in terms of players in return? Are we saying at least one of the top three prospects (Rodriguez, Lee, Jenkins)? Does the fan base agree with that? On top of that, what kind of salary would this hypothetical #3 starter get? Since the Lucas Giolitos and Frankie Montases of the world are getting >$15M, a #3 starter would figure to have a similar salary. If he is under team control the arb number would be in that area. If the Twins add a #3 starter's salary, they probably will have to subtract salary. Finally, any team willing to unload a #3 starter probably doesn't want to add the salary of a Kepler or Polanco. I think it's really tough to thread this needle. 

43 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

What is a solid #3 starter worth in terms of players in return? Are we saying at least one of the top three prospects (Rodriguez, Lee, Jenkins)?

Tough to determine worth because it depends on the needs and views of another team. Totally abstract.

The Twins should not be trading Emmanuel Rodriguez in any event and will not trade Walker Jenkins for anyone. Despite concerns among many Twins fans, Louie Varland is a very solid choice for the rotation and should not be overlooked or pushed to AAA for a guy like Clevinger.

The Twins do have reasonable depth right now and need to be careful not to deplete their player resources. Any trade now has to be very clear in purpose.

20 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Okay, I'll bite. What do you disagree with? I spent the time to write an entry expecting to have a dialogue about depth and reinforcements and the seemingly abrupt change in focus from having veterans available to fill in for the presumed starters and I get a thumbs down and one word response.

Do you disagree with what I stated about the Twins having depth that saved their season in 2023 or do you disagree with my assumption that the Twins will use unproven guys as replacements/reinforcements in 2024? Maybe both? 

At least you responded, maybe I shouldn't be perturbed by your (one word) posting. 

I think that was a typing error. With his always optimistic views. I think he may have meant HOT!

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

So, this is where I think the Twins are in a bind. What is a solid #3 starter worth in terms of players in return? Are we saying at least one of the top three prospects (Rodriguez, Lee, Jenkins)? Does the fan base agree with that? On top of that, what kind of salary would this hypothetical #3 starter get? Since the Lucas Giolitos and Frankie Montases of the world are getting >$15M, a #3 starter would figure to have a similar salary. If he is under team control the arb number would be in that area. If the Twins add a #3 starter's salary, they probably will have to subtract salary. Finally, any team willing to unload a #3 starter probably doesn't want to add the salary of a Kepler or Polanco. I think it's really tough to thread this needle. 

 

I read that montgomery is looking for Rodon type money. Over $26M/yr for 6 years. Rediculous!!!

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Tough to determine worth because it depends on the needs and views of another team. Totally abstract.

The Twins should not be trading Emmanuel Rodriguez in any event and will not trade Walker Jenkins for anyone. Despite concerns among many Twins fans, Louie Varland is a very solid choice for the rotation and should not be overlooked or pushed to AAA for a guy like Clevinger.

The Twins do have reasonable depth right now and need to be careful not to deplete their player resources. Any trade now has to be very clear in purpose.

 

I disagree with the bolded just because we need rotation depth. We need to add at least a mid-rotation starter. That guy is going to be a rostered major leaguer. I would say Louie has shown he is at least a major league capable pitcher and he very likely could be a #3 or better moving forward. He is, however, the only player available to the Twins that is both major league ready and has options necessary for stashing in AAA. Just like last year when Bailey Ober was sent down amid some grumbling from the fan base, this year it is Varland's turn. This is a good thing having 6 legitimate MLB caliber starters instead of years past where we had 3 at best and added the Happs and Shoemakers of the world. 

The Twins have some minor league movement on the 40-man. Let's look at that.

Rodriguez, Severino, Canterino, Woods Richardson would be hard-pressed at the moment to see major league action, sadly, unless it was dire (or a double-deader start, by chance, for Woods Richardson at best).

The Twins have arms like Jensen (should start in the minors) and Staumont, both who could be removed from the 40-man if push came to shove, but still remain in the organization. The Twins pitching depth at St. paul will be the non-40-man Ranmdy Dobnak, Ronny Henriquez (starter or bullpen arm) and names like Winder, Sands, Balazovic, Headrick if not out of options. Headrick could still develop into a lefty starter and be that 7th-8th piece in the mix. But all those names, along with Alcala, are pretty much replaceable by a minor league free agent signee in the near future.

The Twins have to extra spaces open on the 40-man right now. And from all the names above, you could easily find three spots. But everytime you add a topflight minor league guy, you risk the need to move him off the 40-man, or keep him and create a logjam.

The Twins also have Camargo on the 40-man, so the call-up catcher is set and doesn't need to be added by pickups.

Looking over the Twins mior league roster, is this the year that they actually stock St. Paul with prospects that they have signed, rather than dominated by guys who come in and play for the season? Last year the Twins signed 25 minor league free agents no longer with the team. They had 8 guys on their 40-man that were basically place fillers at times. 49 guys played in the majors for the Twins on their 40-man roster.

The level of uncertainty with Buxton and broadcast revenue will keep the roster situation fluid until spring training, at least. Until we see our favorite CF actually in the field, we’ll be questioning whether he can play rather than how often. Just not sure if anyone is in a position to rescue us from a revenue standpoint, and how much effect it will ultimately have on payroll.

With that said, it’s really nice to be discussing a couple of distinct roles on the 26 man roster rather than going into spring training with a few locks and way, way too much hope.

On 1/5/2024 at 12:09 PM, chpettit19 said:

Grichuk, Duvall, etc. wouldn't be terrible signings. Certainly not exciting ones, but I wouldn't be mad about them (depending on the cost). I do fear that they'd pull another Gallo move where they refuse to move on from them in the name of depth or cost or whatever. I don't expect anyone to be as bad as Gallo became, and I don't see a highly likely option for someone to be putting up Wallner numbers that they're blocking, but those mid- to low-tier veteran depth pieces become more harmful than helpful if the FO isn't willing to dump them when it's called for. But not crazy signings by any means.

If Clevinger is the best pitcher they bring in this offseason I'm going to be disappointed. He'd be better than the Happ, Shoemaker, broken down Archer days, but I hope (and believe) the FO is aiming higher than him. I think he's a league average pitcher. Which, again, is better than some of their offseason moves, but not what I think they should be bringing in. Thus the "stuck with" comment. If that's as high as they're aiming they should just sign him now. But I think they're aiming higher so he'd be a fall back option late in the offseason if they can't make the move they want.

Don’t see Clevinger as a Savior but he’s got a 2 year ERA, since surgery, a bit less than 4.00. He’s a more experienced Joe Ryan in my opinion. I think, for what Twins can afford, he’s a good fit…….,some here have lumped him in with T. Bauer on off-field behavior……that seems to have been overblown after reading more about it - no charges - MLB interviewed 15 people and passed on any discipline. They gave Bauer a 324 game suspension originally.

Anyway, am worried he won’t be around much longer as we continue to search for a better trade piece…….we need somebody credible.

Sign him and then continue to earnestly work on pitching trade piece. Pretty easy to trade a starter if they have too many!

I agree that it does seem like they will rely on minor league depth this year. I think that is a solid strategy for the position player side of things. The CF depth looks ok with their outlook on Buxtons health. I can’t argue with that since only they know his health status. With Castro, Gordon, and Martin ( in that order) lined up as CF depth, that should work. Don’t forget about Keirsey in St. Paul. He had a good year last year and probably deserves a shot. Is Niko Goodrum still able to play outfield? I think the corner outfield depth is questionable. After Larnach, I guess it’s Castro, Gordon, Martin, Goodrum, and Keirsey. That’s a big drop off in power output for the corner outfield spots. 
The SP depth right now is Dobnak, Festa, SWR, and maybe Winder. Headrick was also a starter, so he is probably on the depth chart. Except for Festa, those aren’t exciting names to take long term spots at the MLB level if needed. Could work for short term stints to fill in for injuries. Would be better to bring in experienced SP to push Varland to St. Paul for depth. 
Like every fan every year, it would be good to see a BP arm added. With the way BP usage is in today’s game, you’d think that is a requirement for teams that want post season success. With the top five spots locked up, the FO is going to go with Canterino, Alcala, Balazovic, Staumont, Winder, Headrick, and Moran. Not sure of Moran’s health status. Lots of questions with those names. Falvine seems comfortable gambling on three of those guys being dependable for the season. High risk, if you ask me. BP gamble is their MO, so no surprise. 

Good post and some interesting ideas. I'm also starting to think the Twins will most likely go with their current depth (Martin, Goodrum, Gordon, maybe even Larnach) to fill the holes in the outfield or as backups in case Buxton isn't able to play the field much. Not as much reason to sign any other infielders or outfielders this year.

But ... the original post stated:

I expect that the current five-man rotation will be among the best in the American League.

Huh? That comment caused me to twitch a bit. As things stand, I don't think our starting rotation is anywhere near the best in the league. I'm expecting Lopez to pitch well, and I have high hopes for Paddack and Ryan, and to a lesser extent Ober and Varland, but there are just too many question marks with that bunch. Maybe maybe maybe they will all perform to expectations, or hopefully exceed those expectations, but I still think we need to find a Lopez-like arm in a trade. No easy task, I know, but unless we find that extra something, this season may end up being a very frustrating one for the Twins fans. 

There are some pitchers available in free agency that may help but management hasn't offered anything? Wood? Carrasco? Lorenzen? Odorizzi (if healthy)? Clevenger? even Matthew Boyd? are all seasoned vets who may be helpful. Some pitchers already signed or traded this past week aren't much to brag about. We'll see.

On 1/4/2024 at 11:38 PM, Otwins said:

I felt that last year's depth was the real MVP. Not really one player. Castro, Taylor, Solano, Farmer all played big roles and none were starters at the beginning of the year.  I hope they do not trade Kepler, Polanco or Vasquez.  They still should have some money to spend and should be able to purchase a major league starter.  That to me is what they do not have covered right now. I do not see a starter ready in the minors when inevitably a starting pitcher gets hurt. A back up center-fielder we should be able to piece together. Bullpen there may be help in the minors. MLB ready starting pitcher not seeing it.

Good Post

If we had the same TV revenue, the front office would be actively trying to improve our depth. It's just the circumstances are different this time. You post was very good by the way.