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Off Day Musings--The One(s) that got Away

stringer bell

Entry posted by stringer bell in Analysis ·

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The Twins have completed a sweep of the KC Royals and increased their lead in the AL Central to two games. Just to show they are impartial, the Royals play Cleveland next and send out the worst starting pitcher in MLB (Jordan Lyles) to face the Guardians tonight. The Twins have an off day today and face the Baltimore Orioles for the second weekend in a row, this time at Target Field.

The Orioles are a team on the rise. After being the only bad team for years in the AL East, they have become respectable and have a much better record than the Twins. They have been given many top draft choices this decade and those draft choices are bearing fruit. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Hendrickson, Jordan Westburg and Colton Couser have all been added in the last two years with more premium prospects in the system. Their pitching staff has been built mostly by trial and error--keep churning guys through the system and some will work out--including Jorge López who was flipped to the Twins at last year's trade deadline. On the pitching staff, the '23 Orioles have four pitchers who at one time were property of the Twins, including probably the number one loss on a Rule V claim in recent history. Here's a look at four pitchers who have gone from the Twins directly or indirectly to the Orioles.

#4--Kyle Gibson. Kyle Gibson was a #1 draft pick by the Twins. A college pitcher, he debuted midseason in 2013 and gave the Twins six and a half years of starts. Gibson was promoted as a sinkerballer who threw hard enough to get strikeouts and I suspect his stuff would have played better in another era. His body of work is middle of the road, but he has been better than that for stretches, including an All-Star selection in 2021. I have met Kyle and he is one of my favorite ballplayers. Since his time with the Twins, Gibson pitched for Texas and Philadelphia before signing as a free agent with the Orioles.

#3--Danny Coulombe. Coulombe pitched parts of three seasons with the Twins. He is a left handed middle reliever and in his time with the Twins he was mostly effective. For the third year in a row, he signed a minor league contract with the Twins. Now 33 years of age, this year's contract had an opt-out clause in the contract. If another club wanted to offer a major league roster spot Coulombe could opt out of his contract with the Twins. The Orioles offered and the Twins had to let him go. Given his history, and the fact that Coulombe signed three straight minor league contracts with the Twins, I think it is defensible that the Twins didn't put him on the major league roster solely to keep him in the organization. On the other hand, did they really need to keep a long reliever (Cole Sands) and Emilio Pagán? Coulombe has performed very well for the Os. His ERA is under 3 and he is averaging over 11 Ks per nine innings. 

#2--Yennier Cano. Cano was signed by the Twins in 2019 as a 25-year old. He put up excellent strikeout numbers, but displayed command issues. Regardless, Cano advanced through the Twins upper minors and made his debut last year. He got hit hard. The pattern would be some outstanding pitches followed by non-competitive waste pitches and then a grooved fastball or breaking ball. Too many walks, too many pitches out of the strike zone and too many homers. Cano was included in the trade that landed Jorge López and few (including me) thought much about him being added as a throw-in, especially since he was already 28 years old. Baltimore kept him in the majors to close out the year and he continued to be ineffective. However, in 2023, soOmething has clicked. Cano was unscored on in April, allowed no hits and no walks in 11 innings. He pitched very well in May, as well, but has appeared a bit more vulnerable as time has gone on. He's going to the All-Star game and is a great story.

#1-Tyler Wells. There's been a lot of angst that Danny Coulombe and Yennier Cano have been important bullpen pieces for the Orioles this year. Less has been said about probably the O's best starter Tyler Wells. Wells was a 2016 draftee for the Twins who had advanced through their organization. During the 2020 COVID year, he didn't compete and was left unprotected in the Rule V draft. The Orioles picked him and he stuck with the club in 2021. He pitched out of the (bad) Orioles bullpen in 2021 and posted okay numbers for a guy who had only pitched 32 innings above A ball. Pitching around injuries, Wells stayed on the major league roster in 2022 and joined the rotation. in 2022. Wells was pretty good last year (7-7 4.25 ERA) and this year has been much better than that. He leads all qualified MLB pitchers in WHIP (Joe Ryan is second) and is 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA. The only thing keeping Wells from being a Cy Yound contender is that he has yielded 21 homers this year while having a pitcher-friendly home park. IMHO, this is the current one that got away for the Twins.

 

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Dave Borton

Dave Borton 1,960

Posted

...and these two got away. Have them on the radio right now, Blue Jays/White Sox.

One I am sorry to have lost and one, well, glad he is gone. You know which  is which.

Berrios/Lynn

DocBauer

DocBauer 22,233

Posted

A really interesting post Stringer!

While he's a coach and not a player, we might include Matt Borgschulte, the Orioles hitting coach. He rose through the Twins system pretty quickly, and more than a few Twins prospects had positive things to say about him. As I recall, he was one of the candidates to be the Twins primary hitting coach before they settled on Popkins. And I don't mean that as an indictment of Popkins, or that he "got away", merely to include him as a former Twins organization addition to the Orioles. He's one of many coaches, instructors, and additional staff that have been "snagged" by other organizations over the past few years, an indication to me that the FO has a good eye for personnel. 

As to the 4 you listed:

GIBSON: I never felt he got his due when with the Twins. IMO, he was a victim of expectations as he never became the front of the rotation starter everyone hoped for after being selected. And there's no question he ran hot and cold at times. But I think he was better than a lot of people gave him credit for. And he pitched for some not very good teams at times. I've always wondered if expectations and some bad teams held him down some.

COULOMBE: I liked him with the Twins, and I like him now. He's nothing special, and he's had injury concerns. So I didn't have a problem with him being left off the 40 man. But once ST was underway, IMO, was an easy choice to be kept, placed on the 40 man for 1 of a few candidates, especially Megill, and should been kept, 100%. While I never would have kept Pagan...and I think few would have...but once he was back, his rubber, low leverage arm should have been kept as the 8th man, with Sands beginning the year at AAA, and Coulombe as a 3rd LH in the pen. Retrospect is one thing, but this was obvious KEEP in my mind, at the time, and doesn't need retrospect.

CANO: He was bad with the Twins in 2022, and bad with the Orioles as well. The fact that he's done so well in 2023 with the Orioles is good for him, good for them, and a bit of a mystery. And I can't fault the Twins for tossing him in as part of the Lopez trade. Why wouldn't you at 28yo and bad control? But as you point out, his past 30 days have been in a constant decline. Surprisingly, the BB haven't been aweful, but the hits per and ERA are definitely up. I wish him no ill will, but it will be interesting to see the rest of this season and next, who is better between him and J Lopez. I understand that Lopez is a "good guy" dealing with some family issues. But if he can find a "good place" in his head and heart and balance his personal and professional life better, he's still got the stuff to be a very good piece to the Twins pen. I'm sure hoping so. And I believe the Twins still have arbitration control for 2024.

WELLS: Yes, this one hurts a bit to be sure. But to put his situation in context, despite promise and being the Twins milb pitcher of the year after 2018, he went through surgery, and then missed all of 2020 as most milb players did. Meanwhile, the Twins had one the best seasons in the history of the franchise in 2019, and were fully expected to contend in 2020, which they did. At that time, the organization was looking to add a few depth pieces for the staff, as well as normal prospect 40 man adds, and weren't concerned with protecting a AA arm coming off of surgery. Now, I think it's fair to examine a few of the "throw away" arms they brought in for potential depth options, but I don't think we can blame them for not being concerned about a AA arm on rehab vs arms they believed might add to playoff runs. (Personally, I would have protected him). I'd like to think they've learned their lesson as they were somewhat protective of Enlow, have been with Canterino, and were aggressive with Paddack. 

MASSIVE credit to the Orioles who knew they were bad, were going to be bad, and were rebuilding their entire system. They took a shot on a rehabbing arm with no IP for 2yrs and no guarantee he'd ever amount to anything but stuck with him. From interviews of Wells alone, I'd like to have him as part of the system as he seems like a great teammate and high character guy. 

There really is no way the Twins, or Baltimore, could have expected what he's done here in 2023, over 4yrs removed from surgery, no play, and a couple of nondescript seasons at the ML level. HAD he been protected, I don't know that anything he's done the two previous seasons would have changed the various moves the Twins have made, but who knows for sure? He might be right there with Ober, and Varland, as part of the "pipleine" of young arms too good for AAA, but still behind the starters the Twins began this season with. 

But man, it would be fun to have that conundrum wouldn't it?

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