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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    Longenhagens seems much more realistic about Prielipp than the prospect rankers here at TD, essentially flipping him with Festa on their list. I like how they tier the list. It helps to understand that 8-12 are rather interchangable, but 7 is clearly a slight step up, while 6 is a full step up. Longenhagens is a freak. It's crazy listening to him converse as he seems to remember every detail about 1000+ prospects in MiLB at any time. Just freak.
  2. Minny505
    Agreed. Ryan is starting to get that venerable ACE chatter around the general MLB pod talkers. He seems like a lock unless he implodes in June. Gray will likely make it as well as long as he holds the course. Making it as a RP is much harder. Only a few RPs generally make the squad. Duran is a highlight reel, so MLB may push him on the AL manager for the WOW factor, but his baseball card numbers don't stand out at all. Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano look like locks. I'd add Duran to that mix for the consistent 102 since his speed does stand out in the sea of tier 2 relievers after those two guys.
  3. Minny505
    Pulling Kirilloff and Julien after the 1st inning was the plan, not a reaction. Not at all. Rearranging his starting lineup because the team thought Manea was NOT going to pitch is reacting, abandoning the plan. If this is overmanaging, Kevin Cash of the Rays is the worst manager in MLB...meaning he is the biggest over-managing manager in the league.
  4. Minny505
    Hahaha!!! Well stated.
  5. Minny505
    Let's pump the brakes a bit on Stewart, who owns a 6.75 BB/9, a 0 HR/9, and a 100% strand rate. He's been passable, but has really only pulled a half branch ahead of Pagan on the bullpen trust tree. Passable is all he needs to be to hold onto a spot for now, but he's hardly secure.
  6. Minny505
    @William K Johnson & @tarheeltwinsfan I tend to agree with you. Not necessarily that he owes it to the Twins, he owes them nothing. But considering Maeda's recent past, and especially if Varland keeps this up, Maeda can best help the team by pitching out of the pen, where he has proven himself to be dominant in the past. (Related: His time missed to injury this season pretty much preclude him from reaching monetary incentives in his contract, so that should not be a point of contention to a relief role as it has been in the past.)
  7. Minny505
    Of the guys who played over the last 30ish years, I think I'd only include Nishioka and Worley on the list, and I could be talked into McCarty. I'd replace the other 4-5 with Sidney Ponson, Livan Hernandez, Byung Ho-Park, and while he was before my Twins watching days, the legendary Ron Davis. It's hard for a player to be so bad that he literally becomes a Twins legend passed down thru the generations, whose song is as well known as those of Killebrew, Carew, Pucket, and Blylevin. Long live Ron Davis!
  8. Minny505
    It doesn't need to be permanent, but Correa getting moved to 6th in the order, until he gets the bat going again, seems overdue.
  9. Minny505
    The irony of Buxton being load managed as a DH only is that, IF he stays healthy and IF he maintains a 130ish OPS+/wRC+, he will be worth about 0.5 fWAR less than either 2021 or 2022. The team is probably better off playing him in CF 4 times a week and crossing their fingers. Maybe then go back to DHing him in September, if he is still healthy, to improve his chances of playing in the playoffs.
  10. Minny505
    I love this order and it's a lot closer to how I would have it vs the staff. Proximity is more valuable to me. Most of the guys at AAA, and even AA, on this list were once A ballers with higher upside than they are currently viewed as having, but they have survived to make it this far and are still succeeding. That's more than most Single-A top prospects will ever accomplish...especially pitchers.
  11. Minny505
    Right now the Twins are certainly on the positive side of the WAR ledger when it comes to trading for pitchers over the last 7+ years. If the Twins are going to trade for pitchers, might as well be for pitchers with an injury history. Why? Because they often have their value depressed due to that history, but really, 98% of pitchers carry equal injury risk from this minute forward. For every Mahle there is a Gray. For every Paddack there is a Maeda. For every Alcala, there is a Duran. And occasionally you snag a Ryan or a SWR along the way as well.
  12. Minny505
    6.5 weeks into the season and the pre-season observation is playing out as true that this year's Twins looks like they stole the Dodgers playbook and are executing it mid-market team style. They stockpiled depth all thru the 40 man roster, and even beyond, to weather the regular season storm of attrition that is inescapable by all but the 2022 Guardians.
  13. Minny505
    Griffith is getting BABIP'd to death without the hard contact to support concern. Stewart OTOH brings a world of concern with him to the mound each time he makes that long walk. A 9:8 K:BB ratio is traversing a tightrope without a safety net.
  14. Minny505
    I had no idea of the numbers on Jax this week, but just watching the games it seemed like he was in a stretch of crazy-bad luck. Bloopers and bleeders everywhere. I'm sure a hard-hit ball happened, but I don't recall any. Not at all worried about him. That FIP and xERA are still fantastic.
  15. Minny505
    Love seeing Gallo at leadoff. I hope he hangs on and we never have to witness another weak Kepler pop fly to start our offense.
  16. Minny505
    I don't think I have ever seen a waiver wire, journeyman pitcher, move up the bullpen leverage ladder as fast as Brock Stewart has. It's kind of bizzarre.
  17. Minny505
    Buxton, like many other speedy RHB, consistently outperform their xwOBA. The quants behand those numbers have had a hard time adjusting for those choppers to the left-side that players like Buxton, Taylor, Trey Turner, Nico Hoerner, etc, consistently beat out for hits. So Buxton will likely always be one of the "luckiest" hitters on the Twins due to that inherent talent. Taylor is #3 on this list IIRC.
  18. Minny505
    A good rule of thumb is, "Is this the kind of trade the Rays would do?" Encarnacion-Strand is a decent prospect, but he can only play 1B so unless he is an elite hitter, it's not a big loss. He's not even ranked in the Reds top 10 prospects. Steer is a decent hitter who can't really play defense and has already been relegated to 1B for the Reds. He's 25. His upside is meh. Hajjar is a too-old-for-his-level lottery ticket pitcher that the Reds already traded away as the PTBNL for a depth outfielder they traded for at the 2022 deadline. I'd want the Twins to pull the trigger on that trade 11 out of 10 times. That's how you become the Rays.
  19. Minny505
    I'd offer him a 2 year deal with a team option. He's likely out for most or all of next season, so 2025 is really what the contract is for, with an option if he picks up where he left off in Cinncinnati.
  20. Minny505
    Love chatting baseball with people who use BS! It's my #1 resource these days for players. And yes, he has been unlucky, but that's just compounding the fact that he's also been bad.
  21. Minny505
    I'm a little surprised they haven't ever played Gordon over there. If he has the arm to get the occassional start at SS, he certainly has the arm to play 3B. I wonder if that changes. It would be a great way to get Gordon into the lineup more often if he can play passable defense.
  22. Minny505
    He should get moved to 5th or 6th until he gets his bat going again. Kind of feels like the Gardy days right now with him batting second.
  23. Minny505
    I tend to agree with the Lewis take at 3B. Unless Miranda starts raking at AAA I could see Lewis surpassing him on the depth chart at 3B by the time both are ready to get the call again. Of course, modern MLB teams, perfectly exemplified by the Rays, move guys all around, with only a few players in the lineup every day.
  24. Minny505
    Garlick probably makes more sense as long as Buxton is the full-time DH. If thet Twins brass decides that's not the move, then he is likely safe until the team calls up Miranda or Lewis...provided everyone is still healthy and producing.
  25. Minny505
    First, I love the charts you made @SportsGuyDalton! Amazing way to visually demonstrate those numbers. I would also include xwOBA in this discussion. Gordon has the largest negative differential in the AL there (min 50bip). Shifting gears, I love where Taylor and Buxton are on this chart. xBA has yet to be properly calibrated for fast right-handed batters, who generally get more infield hits than the batted ball data suggests for right-handed batters as a group.
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