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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    I would take this even further. Leadoff sees the lowest PAs with runners in scoring position of any of the top 6-7 spots in the lineup. Because of that, hits really are of little value, while getting on base or hitting a HR is at a premium. If Gallo is somewhat back to his former self, he actually makes a great leadoff man. If he can match Arraez's OBP, but with 25-30 more HRs, he's an even better leadoff man than Arraez with his superior baserunning and lack of splits. It may not be traditional, but he could be the best answer to this question. I start the season with any of those others listed here, but I keep the door open for Gallo if he shows he is back in April.
  2. Minny505
    This will be a big season for Joe. If he can maintain or improve, he is the real deal. But with a full season of scouting reports, it will be interesting to see if hitters can adjust to the unique pitch plane. If hitters cannot adjust their swing to go the other way against the shift, which they see against many pitchers, I find it hard to believe they will be able to adjust their swing to hit one individual pitcher they only see a couple ABs a season.
  3. Minny505
    I'd add Gordon to that list as well. And even if everyone on the roster now is there and healthy all season, I think Larnach still gets 500+ PAs.
  4. Minny505
    I don't disagree, but if Gallo is a 2 WAR player, he is far from a bust. That's my dispute. And if Larnach or Wallner are pressing at mid-season to play daily, and Gallo is on track for that 2 WAR season, he can be traded for prospects. FWIW, not a chance in hell I sign Gallo unless a trade for Kepler is lined up or done...but in a vacuum, the signing is perfectly reasonable.
  5. Minny505
    I don't think Correa has another GG season in him, but the rest is fair and whould take a solid season from each of these players, but is attainable.🤞
  6. Minny505
    I'd probably swap Miller and Salas, but in agreement otherwise.
  7. Minny505
    This is awesome and goes to show that drafting and international signings are not the only way to acquire prospects while staying relatively competitive. I am still constantly surprised by how undervalued Salas is in the Twins community. He is a Top 100 prospect in all of MLB affliliated baseball, according to Baseball America and Fangraphs...arguably the two most respected prospect ranking organizations in the business. I get that if he can't stick at SS he falls out of the Top 150, but if he can stick he moves into the Top 50. Seems like a serious case of non-objective overvaluing of the prospects that are familiar/ours over the prospects that are unfamiliar/theirs.
  8. Minny505
    You're ready to declare the Gallo signing a bust and a huge overpay before he even takes to the field? Juevos man. Juevos.
  9. Minny505
    I haven't done a lot of digging, but Mike Petriello/Statcast, Eno Sarris, Ben Clemons (or someone at Fangraphs), and Aaron Gleeman, have all written or listed how Kepler will be one of the least impacted by the upcoming shift limitations. Those are the who's who of baseball analysis, especially Petriello and Sarris. The shift is not his issue, poor quality of contact is. A flat swing will do that. It means your margin for error with timing has to be near perfect as your bat spends almost no time in the center of the flight path of the pitch, often resulting in pop ups and ground balls if you are near, but not perfectly, on time.
  10. Minny505
    This sums up the impetus for trading him, or really any one of Larnach, Gordon, or Kepler...whichever you think you get the best value for in shopping them all (throw Wallner in there if you want, I just don't think he will bring back any value at all)*. Keeping them all means we essentially have 2 WAR players at the corner OF spots at all times. Trading any one of them and getting a RH COF/1B means potentially having a 3 WAR corner OF position if platooned correctly. Trading any one of those guys has the real potential for addition by subtraction. *And yes, I honestly don't care which one of those four is traded, as long as they are replaced on the roster by a lefty mashing COF/1B
  11. Minny505
    I kind of agree with this. I would move him to 6th, but that's just picking nits. Future value being equal, I tend to rank the non-pitcher and proximity to the majors higher. That drops Raya and Prielipp down to 7 & 8. Regardless, while the system is lacking high end prospects, it is deeply stocked with 50-55 FV players.
  12. Minny505
    I'm rather surprised by Jose Salas not making the top 20. On national lists, Salas is more highly regarded than Austin Martin.
  13. Minny505
    That's probably right. Fans generally have unrealistic expectations of draft picks. Teams like the Astros, Dodgers, and Rays are the long tail of prospect outcomes in a good way, while the Royals, Tigers, and Reds are at on the wrong long tail. Twins are pretty much smack-dab in the middle of the bell curve. Sure, we'd all like better outcomes, but it's fantasy to call a front office a failure for hitting the league average on draft picks.
  14. Minny505
    Great comparison. The discussion about Arraez not being able to play 2B kind of confuses me. While I agree he's not good, but neither is Polanco. Trading Polanco and having Arraez shift over to the keystone would likely be a lateral move on defense. While I would never trade Arraez for Lopez straight up (hypothetical), I would entertain a 1-for-1 swap with Polanco instead. Both are bat-first infielders and Arraez probably has the better bat going forward.
  15. Minny505
    Not that fan opinion matters much, but over on MLBTR, neutral commenters are pretty unanimous in this opinion. Arraez for Lopez is a fine starting point, but the Marlins are going to need to add another solid piece to the trade to get it done.
  16. Minny505
    Any of the three would be preferable to Lopez. My choice of those three would be to make a deal for the one that costs the least in trade capital.
  17. Minny505
    This signing makes a trade for a SP much more urgent. Get that projection up to 87 wins, where the team is more than a coinflip to make the playoffs.
  18. Minny505
    I've never heard it mentioned, but I wonder if the physical last year was enough to go on to feel comfortable the team can actually ink this one. I get that the ankle was not a concern on a three year deal, but can it be used as a base for a six year deal? Still need the physical of course, but it seems like the Twins knew ahead of time what they were getting themselves into when they agreed on this.
  19. Minny505
    Sure. We could probably do better in a trade, but he is likely an upgrade on Garlick from a total value perspective. And, as noted, he has a Nelson Cruz-like reputation in the clubhouse.
  20. Minny505
    I think you originally turned me on to the Guillorme idea about 8 weeks ago and it makes so much sense. Such a good idea! The Twins brass better at least be exploring this option. He can't be that expensive, especially if/when the Mets complete the Correa deal.
  21. Minny505
    I hope they contacted the Mets to propose Kepler for Guillorme and Ruf. That nets us a LHB SS with 3 years of control and a RH power bat to play COF/1B. That fills two needs with one trade.
  22. Minny505
    As the Twins are currently constructed, they have one of the widest distributions of win outcomes in the league. They could have Buxton, Kirilloff, Larnach, Polanco, Lewis, Grey, and Mahle, all stay relatively healthy and they might walk to the Central Division Winner's Circle with 97 wins. Or they could have all those guys get injured again and the team finishes in 4th place in the Central with 97 losses (sorry Tigers). Neither outcome would surprise me, and neither would probably surprise you either (yes, I'm breaking the 4th wall). They still need an upgrade in the rotation, a starting-caliber/LHB platoon SS, and a right handed bat that can pseudo-play COF/1B. That might at least limit the downside to 91 losses.
  23. Minny505
    Because the part-time player being acquired is a better fit for the Twins roster than the part-time player they would be trading away.
  24. Minny505
    I am just going to have to agree to disagree with you on this Nash. Guillorme would be an upgrade at SS until Lewis is ready and buy the team time until he is completely ready to take over again. With all his time missed over the last few years, there may be rust. A month of play in 2022 is not enough to convince me he will be ready to step in full time as SS at any point in 2022. Same with Lee. And Guillorme is an upgrade to the roster for the next few seasons. He is an upgrade at SS until a prospect is ready and is an upgrade at backup SS and utility infielder once one of those prospects are ready. I'll give up B level talent to get B level talent if the fit is better on the roster. The B level talent the Mets have is a better fit than the B level talent the Twins have creating a logjam in left handed hitting corner outfielders or mediocre SP that are likely to be decent RP. Because right now, If Farmer goes down for a month on April 12th, it could truly torpedo the season as there is no one on the 40 that can handle the position on a daily basis. I really think you are overestimating the exchange rate for a player like Guillorme. I doubt anyone the Twins would trade for him would come back to haunt them. Guillorme's just not that kind of talent. But he's a perfect fit on the Twins roster for the next few seasons.
  25. Minny505
    I don't understand this argument. Plenty of championship teams platoon a position on the field, including the 2022 World Series Winning Astros. The Twins are not likely to be a very good baseball team in 2023, but that they would have a platoon at SS is not at all a reason why.
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