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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I too am hopeful but I wonder why he fell to 48. There have been other promising pitchers with TJ surgery that haven’t fallen that far. Teams knew that Giolito was shut down due to elbow trouble and TJ was likely. He fell to 16. Last year Lesko fell to 15. Why was he there at 48?
  2. jorgenswest
    Arraez is below average at 2B (career DRS of -2, UZR150 of -4.8, RAA of -11). I don’t think we respect how hard it is to play a position at the major league level even at his below average rate. I don’t think Julien is close to that level yet. Julien hasn’t had a position. In college he was primarily a DH his first year with trials at 2B, LF and 1B. He was moved to 3B his second year at Auburn. He lost 2020 to the pandemic and then the Twins tried him at 2B, LF, 3B and 1B in 2021. Last year he played 94 games at 2B. Some players move around positions because they have the skills to play several and utility is in their future. Some move around in hopes of finding any position that will fit. I am not sure if Julien is ready for any position at a passable level. Do the Twins invest the year in AAA in trying to make him a 2B? Do they abandon 2B and hope for 1B and invest the time there? If the bat is ready do they put him at DH and use him in the field as infrequently as possible? edit: I wondered if Luis Arraez was the best comp. Julien has a less average, more power, more walks and more strike outs. I went back through the old New Britain AA clubs found someone that might match that on base with some power profile better. How does he compare to Bobby Kielty? Kielty was an asset with the glove in the outfield but their batting lines in the minors might be a better fit.
  3. jorgenswest
    I appreciate the probably/hopefully. Larnach’s age 24-25 major league seasons with an OPS+ of 94. Same ages in AA with an OPS at that level of .621. I think there is a lot of hope in that upside. Like Celestino, he may really benefit from having a shot to dominate AAA. I wouldn’t trade Kepler without getting a return that will be real help to the 2023 Twins.
  4. jorgenswest
    “Stabilization” point for OBP against is 540 PA and SLG against is 550 AB. OPS wouldn’t be less than that. For his career Jax has faced 76 number 3 hitters (67 abs). I think at this point the sample is one to be ignored. Your eye test doesn’t need to be ignored. Data can never replace a skilled eye. So much more can be seen by the eye in a short time span than can be seen by the data.
  5. jorgenswest
    Thanks Mike. That was a really good use of matching video with data.
  6. jorgenswest
    I think they need another right handed bat. It will be Garlick or someone they acquire. Does Gurriel help more than Garlick?
  7. jorgenswest
    Is there any reasonable way to get Kepler, Larnach, Gordon, Kirilloff and Gallo in the line up? I suppose Gordon could play 3B but I don’t want Miranda in the short side of a platoon. One of those players needs to be traded or in AAA. They need a right handed bat in that spot. The best in house candidate is Garlick. I would sign Gurriel. I think they need one more reliever also. I think Fulmer over Megill would be a helpful upgrade.
  8. jorgenswest
    On Julien in the lineup this year… I really think Julien needs significant time in AAA in he is going to play 2B. I don’t believe he is close to being ready and not near the level of Arraez at 2B when he came up. It may be worth investing that time in AAA hoping that he can play middle infield. In his first year in college Julien was predominantly a DH. His second year he played 3B. Miranda is probably defensively better at 3B. He lost 2020 to the pandemic. Since then the Twins have tried him at 3B and then 2B. Here is a short excerpt from Zach Buchanan of the Athletic. The defensive statistics available from the minors aren’t very useful. Occasionally I will look to see if the support an eyewitness account. For 2Bs I divide innings by double plays. His ratio is very poor when compared to the aggregate of everyone else who played 2B for Wichita last year. It also does not compare well to Arraez in the minors. His bat is near ready but not his glove. Should they move him to 1B and try to get him in the lineup this year? Should they be patient knowing he has little experience at 2B and give him the year to try to bring his level up to passable?
  9. jorgenswest
    I see a pitcher with an ERA 19% better than league average over the last three years. How many starters in the league have performed better over the last 3 season? It has to be top 50 and maybe top 30. Those starters are hard to find and expensive to acquire. Bundy’s ERA over the last three years is 14% worse than league average. I wouldn’t look at a partial season of data for Lopez anymore than I would look at the drop in the performance of Arraez as the season progressed. Partial seasons project forward poorly. We simply disagree on the significance of that split in projecting performance for this year. Some see Bundy. I don’t.
  10. jorgenswest
    My uninformed opinion from my recliner thinks he has tried to hard to hit the ball to the opposite field. The result has been too much weak contact and a lower launch angle. He needs to go up to the plate looking for a pitch to attack and drive it to the pull side.
  11. jorgenswest
    I guess you can throw out the early season but ERAs were down across the league. Bundy had an ERA in the 2s for March/April. I think it is far better to look at a three year sample for projecting forward than truncating the previous year.
  12. jorgenswest
    Do the Twins have a better win projection in 2023 as a result of this trade? If the answer is no, it is reasonable to oppose this trade. The win projection after the Rogers trade dropped last year. The argument was that we had control of Paddock and Pagán for 2023. 2023 would be better. How did that turn out? I do like the trade. I also get an assessment that Arraez is more valuable to the 2023 Twins than López. Unlike the Rogers trade the Twins have time to fix the line up before the season starts. I hope this isn’t the last move.
  13. jorgenswest
    Isn’t he a switch hitter that hits better against right handed pitching over his career? It seems like we have outfielders that hit right handed pitching better than left handed pitching.
  14. jorgenswest
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN197307040.shtml Attendance 45,890! Bane pitched well. I wasn’t there but I was listening to Herb Carneal and Ray Christensen (I think Halsey Hall retired year previous).
  15. jorgenswest
    It would be fast. Eddie Bane was the fastest. He debuted in the majors right after being drafted 11th overall from Arizona State.
  16. jorgenswest
    With the way starters today are used platooning really doesn’t help enough for a catcher at the bottom on the order. He will likely still see two at bats against a right handed pitcher and sometimes only 1 against that left handed starter. Since teams are more reluctant to pinch hit for their catcher he will see plenty of right handed pitchers in those games started by lefties. In fact while his OPS last season was .909 against left handed pitching, his OPS in games started by a left handed pitcher was .670. The samples are too small but I used the data to illustrate the small impact of trying to start him almost every game when the Twins are facing a left handed pitcher. Did you know that he has a better career OPS in games started by a right handed pitcher (.688 to .648) even though he hits left handed pitchers better? The best way to get him at bats against a left handed pitcher is to slot him in between two left handed batters in the line up and let him feast on the left handed relievers.
  17. jorgenswest
    I would give him the minor league deal. If he takes a minor league deal there are teams like the Marlins that offer a better path of opportunity. He also might seek a bigger contract going overseas.
  18. jorgenswest
    Garlick had more at bats against right handed pitching than left handed pitching last year though plate appearance was slightly more against lefties(82-80). 46% of his major league plate appearances have been against right handed pitching. In spite of this near even split his career OPS against right handed pitching sits at .582.
  19. jorgenswest
    The best way not to be used is the be the Pirates and not participate. All negotiations will use the buyers against each other. If you don’t want the Twins to be used you must not want them to buyers.
  20. jorgenswest
    Reading this thread reminds me of the Eduardo Escobar threads at a similar age. It isn’t unusual for an up the middle player to arrive before their bat is ready yet still develop to their potential while spending time on the bench. I would bet on Celestino in his prime years being a starting outfielder.
  21. jorgenswest
    The sample size for those stats needs to be multiple seasons to be meaningful. Using that data in a sample of 127 innings would be very unreliable. The other ERA projectors are more reliable ERA projectors but not great. Whichever data is used a three year sample is much more reliable in projecting forward.
  22. jorgenswest
    I think they go in with understanding of the risk. It is the injury risk that makes him available to a mid/small market team. I’d take the risk.
  23. jorgenswest
    The injury risks provides the opportunity for a mid/small market team to sign an elite player. I would take the risk.
  24. jorgenswest
    Let’s suppose they sign someone like Fulmer and need a spot on the 40. They DFA Enlow. Enlow has a chance to passed through waivers. If they know they will be filling Enlow’s spot on the 40 they can DFA him now when acquiring Ortega. Now when they sign someone like Fulmer they can DFA Ortega. He has a chance to make it through waivers also. I don’t think Ortega will be on the 40 to start the season. Enlow wouldn’t be either. The Twins will acquire a veteran for that spot on the 40 and both Enlow and Ortega will have had chances to pass though waivers from that spot.
  25. jorgenswest
    Fulmer may be the move. This isn’t about Enlow vs Ortega. It is about using that 40 man spot for a player like Fulmer. Making this move gives the Twins two chances to pass a player through waivers instead of one.
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