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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Farmer isn’t a solution as an everyday player. Castro isn’t a solution as the left handed half of the platoon as he has better career numbers as a right handed batter. The only solution is Miranda. Maybe a trip to AAA can help him reset. I would stick with him here though and let him work it out at this level.
  2. jorgenswest
    Lewis will go through rough times and the same conversation will be had about him. Lee will too. I think Miranda is worthy of investing 1500 at bats. If they want to send him down for a time when Farmer is ready that might help him reset but he really has proven himself at AAA. He needs time to work through this struggle.
  3. jorgenswest
    The deal would still have been made if they wanted to keep Rooker. He made the 40 man roster numbers work and likely would have been DFA’d by the Twins if kept. Ultimately the Twins chose Garlick over Rooker. Rooker is proving them wrong this far this season.
  4. jorgenswest
    I am not sure if any of these are close to stabilizing, strikeout rate would stabilize earliest and possibly meaningful. The batted ball data from statcast stabilizes with fewer plate appearances. Gordon’s xBA and xSLG are 255 and 405 based on the number and quality of balls put in play this year.
  5. jorgenswest
    Are we watching the same player? He is among the team leaders is hard hit rate and barrels rate. He is a very good defender. His walks are down but even with the poor walk rate his OPS is better than Larnach’s. I don’t know what is coming in May but up until today he appears to be one of the more valuable Twins and I am encouraged by the increases in hard hit rate, barrels and average exit velocity.
  6. jorgenswest
    They don’t need a middle reliever. They need another effective reliever and probably two. Four reliable relievers isn’t enough. Someone needs to join that group.
  7. jorgenswest
    Without off days and entering the Yankee series I don’t think they can afford to push back Maeda’s start. They should IL him and go with Ober until Maeda can come back. They will need that additional arm from St. Paul.
  8. jorgenswest
    Maeda should go to IL and then a rehab assignment. Give Ober or Varland the opportunity to get a spot in the rotation and not give it back. Though this wasn’t related to Maeda’s arm it is an opportunity to give him some more time with the arm also. A healthy Maeda will be an asset to this staff. The myth that somehow they can hide Pagán in a low leverage role was busted today if there was really anyone who believed that role exists. I do believe there is value in a 13th spot flex role with Sands and now Headrick. That role is an opportunity there to impress and move up the ladder as Jax did last year. Someone needs to step up in that role and claim Pagán’s spot.
  9. jorgenswest
    Any trade of a reliever for a starting pitcher that finishes 2nd in the Cy Young voting for you is a win. Who would say no to that trade?
  10. jorgenswest
    Julien’s arm action will cost some outs. They will miss out on some double plays and close plays at first base. I am not sure it gets much better in AAA though repetition and foot work in the position can help. That kind of work would be easier to do in AAA. If he can show his bat will make up for those lost outs he needs to stay. He has a window to show his bat belongs at the top of a major league line up. It is up to him. It seems a real stretch to think that Brooks Lee was least aggressive. He is 22 with virtually no time at AA. How many drafted last year are above his level? If that is the best you found then the Twins were very aggressive in their promotions this year.
  11. jorgenswest
    Depth is important. If at some point everyone is healthy a few major league ready players with be in AAA on options. It won’t be long before they are needed. Last year the ink wasn’t dry on Miranda’s option to AAA before Lewis was injured and Miranda was back with the Twins.
  12. jorgenswest
    It happened multiple times last year. He faced the number 3 hitter a third time in most starts and some he gave up more than 4 runs. There was a Yankee game he only made it 19 batters but he had thrown 90 pitches. His first start of the season after the shortened spring was 19 batters and lower pitch count. The same for his first start following his absence for COVID. there was an Angel game in his second to last start where he threw only 69 pitches in 4 innings of three run ball. That might be your best example but at this point the Twins were out of contention and had a bigger pen. This persistent narrative about Baldelli and third time through isn’t supported by his use of Ryan last year. It isn’t supported by Gray either when you look at his shorts starts clustered around his three IL trips and the start of the season. You could argue that he should have had more confidence in Smeltzer, Archer and Bundy.
  13. jorgenswest
    Is there a team that doesn’t use the 13th spot to rotate pitchers through? The need for a long reliever is so unpredictable that teams no longer carry a long reliever but instead use AAA. It makes sense. A long reliever isn’t getting regular work and once used isn’t available the next few days. Cole Sands makes it 6 candidates and the first to have the opportunity of the 13th pitcher to move off the shuttle. Jax took that opportunity last year and earned a key role in the pen. Which of these 6 do you think will take advantage of the opportunity and earn a regular role in this year’s pen?
  14. jorgenswest
    I agree and would add when healthy. His first start was due to the short spring. He left injured in his second start. Once he returned starts 3 and 4 were short as he built up. Starts 5-7 went at least 6. Trip 2 to IL. Two starts to build up and then a 7 inning start. They were more cautious after the second trip to IL and we’re pulling him around 80 pitches eventually building to 90. If he pitched well he was getting through 6 in 90. They may have been overly cautious in the build up but he wasn’t pulled due to analytics. Two trips to the IL was the larger factor. In September he won two consecutive starts while facing 25 batters in each only to be followed by trip 3 to the IL in the next start.
  15. jorgenswest
    If there is a difference it won’t be a change in philosophy. It will be a change in conditions. Consider the top 5 pitchers in starts from last year. Bundy, Archer and Smeltzer are gone. Sonny Gray was on the IL three times. They had one healthy mid rotation pitcher last year in Joe Ryan. He typically saw the top of line up a third time through. The other two (Ober and Winder) with double digits starts came with a history of injuries and limited innings in a season. Baldelli will let good healthy pitchers see the line up a third time through and go deeper. How often did he have that opportunity last year? Hopefully that opportunity occurs a lot more this year.
  16. jorgenswest
    My guess is most teams trading for a good starting pitch at the deadline lose value in the long run. Castillo, Montas and Mahle were the top starters moved at the deadline. They all might be losses in the long run. The Twins didn’t have to give up their best prospects or prospects at key positions to get Mahle. Steer and Encarnacion are corner players with promising bats and marginal fielding value. Should they have a need for that type of player in the long run they will be able to find them. I would make the same type of trade for starting pitching whenever they have a need and are buyers at the deadline.
  17. jorgenswest
    Very different roles. Sands has an option. He can eat innings and then be optioned out. The Marlins needed that pitcher yesterday after the early injury. Coulombe would have to be DFA’d and probably couldn’t give them 60+ pitches. The Twins have several players that could fit that role. Winder and Henriquez are injured. Ober, Varland and Woods-Richardson are staying getting regular work as starters. It can be argued that one if those three would have been a better choice but I think getting a regular turn in the AAA rotation is better. We should see Winder for Sands in the pen soon. The wrong move may have been Pagán over Coulombe but I think Sands is the best fit for his current role.
  18. jorgenswest
    So many Julien comparisons to Arraez since Luis was traded. I wonder if Luis ever struck out four times in a game. I believe Julien will be a good major leaguer but I think his minor league numbers in context of era and league are a closer comp to Bobby Kielty than Luis Arraez.
  19. jorgenswest
    Coulombe contributed -0.31 WPA in his two years as a Twin. He doesn’t have options. He isn’t a long reliever and really was competing with Moran and Pagán. Cole Sands is the first of many to have the last spot in the pen. He has a chance to prove himself and move up the ladder like Jax did last year. Otherwise he will be long relief help until the Twins bullpen gets stretched and they need a fresh arm.
  20. jorgenswest
    I don’t know how close the number is to reality but it does seem reasonable to believe that the Twins push the payroll limits more than most.
  21. jorgenswest
    Castro is younger than Larnach. He put up a really good AAA season and was rushed to the majors very young. There are plenty of examples of players being called up too young and struggle yet still find success in their prime. It happened with Escobar and Hicks. I have hope for Celestino. It can happen with Castro.
  22. jorgenswest
    I don’t believe any real catching prospect is cheap. Teams need two good catchers and at least one other that is major league ready. They aren’t going to easily trade that depth. If Rodriguez could have been picked up cheap last year someone would have picked him up. Quero is probably the Angels third most valuable minor league prospect. The Twins third most valuable minor league prospect might be Rodriguez or Julien. The Twins wouldn’t let any other team cheaply pick them up. The Twins do need young catching and should be willing to pay up to get it. Quero is worth pursuing but it might take Julien.
  23. jorgenswest
    They need to find a position for Julien that he can play at a passable level, That might be 1B or maybe he hits well enough to DH. In the long run he helps so much more if he can play a passable 2B. We will see if they continue the 2B plan at St. Paul or if they move him to 1B.
  24. jorgenswest
    Sanchez must have had near the same mix of a pitchers. He was better than league average at throwing out runners and far better than Jeffers last year.
  25. jorgenswest
    I agree. Castro is younger than Larnach and his 22 year old season in AAA was very good and much better than Larnach’s AAA at 24 and 25. Since then Castro has struggled at the major league level after being called up very young. His positional flexibility and early promise give him a good shot at bringing value to a major league team. A better shot than White and probably even Larnach.
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