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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    He made good adjustment to start year, now league is adjusting to him again, and he needs to adjust to that. He has shown and ability to hit at this level, but will he be a star, doubtful. He is the classic DH corner outfield guy that if he is average hitter he is not worth much. Kepler is average hitter but plays great defense. Wallner, when hitting like he can, is a plus hitter and has more value than Larnach. We have several other guys that could fill in for Larnach and not be out much. I was happy what he was doing this year overall, but clearly he is fading from his hot start.
  2. Trov
    I find it unlikely they go after Bassitt or Gausman because of the contracts. I can see them asking about Kikuchi for depth and possible 4th starter in playoffs if needed. Not sure what the ask would be. It really is a sellers market right now. In the NL only 2 teams are fully out of playoff chance. There are several teams that are not likely to be buyers, depending on what happens next couple of weeks but may not be full fire sale either. In AL there are 3 teams fully out of it, 2 teams that are pretty much out, Toronto being one of them, and 4 teams within 5.5 games of a playoff spot. Texas is one of them and I bet they look to buy to give a push because they have a roster that can win in playoffs if they get there. Top end pitching if healthy and can be a strong offense.
  3. Trov
    Tim Anderson was overrated in my opinion. He hit very well, but was terrible fielder. I am not surprised as his huge drop off in his age. He is the classic average MLB player. Came up at 23, really had good years in 26 to 29 peak years, then drops of quickly. One issue though is he is known for having poor clubhouse presence and attitude so will not have too many more chances.
  4. Trov
    Biggest surprise for me is the long streaks at the beginning of the year, both losing and winning streaks. They have got back to a more consistent 2 out of 3 type thing. Not sure how often a team has streaks as long as they had on both sides in a season. I am would who deserves the most credit is FO for not overreacting to slow start and building good depth. Lopez has been a little disappointing, but his FIP is much lower than his ERA suggesting some better outcomes in future. I expect we will make postseason, at minimum as wild card, but feel like we could catch Cleveland. Cleveland has historically faded in second half in past few years. They have a top heavy line up that a couple of guys are playing well above their career norms. They have a good pen, but with poor starters that pen will start to get overworked.
  5. Trov
    Lee looks to be very solid hitter. He has had a bit of luck so far, but he has hit a few solid hard hits too. The ball he got a hit on yesterday where Altuve bobbled the ball, first called error, then a hit, would most likely been an out had Altuve left it for Pena. Lee has had a few other slow rollers just in the right spot. However, He has not struck out much and gives himself a chance to get a hit. He could be hitting about .300 if his soft rollers were stopped and not just made it through. He made a great play at 3rd yesterday, playing back and came in on a bunt attempt for a hit. It was not a great attempt, but Lee was back on dirt. Lee nailed him by plenty. He for sure looks ready to play every day this level, and think when Lewis is ready Farmer will get shopped or DFA.
  6. Trov
    In regards tot he 2022 numbers, assuming we would have added him to 40 man and called up in September, if he had similar numbers, Steer slashed .211/.306/.632 for OPS+ of 74. Guessing that would not have added much wins for us. Assuming he does replace Solano on the 2023 roster, again not clear that would have happened being we had other guys on roster ranked ahead of him on prospect list as well. Lets assume he would have broke camp and got all the at-bats Solano got. Steer would have produced more offense, as he had more slugging and much more HR, but he got on base less often, and his defense was worse. Overall, it would have been net gain, but not a huge increase. Additionally, we do not know how this would have affected other moves the team made. Maybe Julien never gets a call up because Steer is playing instead if he is on team, and he had higher OPS+ then Steer last year. Would Steer have been possible upgrade last year over who we used, possible, but would we have just went with him out of camp like Reds did, doubtful. There is good chance he would have stayed in AAA all year, depending what he was doing down there.
  7. Trov
    Steer may or may not be part of Reds long term plan. He is getting at bats, but still not locked into a position. He has played half LF and half 1B mainly. I disagree with the claim the trade will only look worse as time passes, unless you are only looking at WAR. You need to also remember, Steer was not on 40 man that year, he would have had to be put on 40 man the next year, which may have cost a different prospect. Additionally, if we keep Steer and he does what he is doing, slightly above average hitter, do we feel different players are tradable then? Would we trade Julien away, and what if Julien turns out to be the better player down the road, unless the player or players we get in return of Julien int he hypothetical were that much better would it have been better to keep Steer. Each move affects other moves. If we keep Steer and CES, and do not trade them elsewhere, do we lose them in rule 5, do we lose someone else in rule 5, or do we trade away a different player to allow them to get playing time, or do we just leave them in AAA? I am not saying we clearly got the raw end of the trade being we almost nothing from Mahle, but my point is to say the trades on the list were bad because we got less bWAR from the players coming versus going out is not a good way to evaluate a trade as a whole. I used Steer as an example because he has been the most productive for a guy we sent out mostly.
  8. Trov
    I fully agree Steer could have been used in potential other trade, and sucks Mahle got hurt right away for us. However, without knowing what other options there were with Steer hard to determine that as well.
  9. Trov
    It is nice to see guys put up some good numbers to start to push for chances in next year or too. You can never have too much pitching as guys get hurt or fall off production.
  10. Trov
    Pretty easy to predict based on current roster and no injuries setting in. Personally, I see 1st base as a possible move by Twins in offseason again. No one on our current roster are considered strong defenders there, and unless they rake like crazy having average offense and bad defense is not good combo at 1st. In addition, so many of these guys are pushing each other could get traded in off-season, or at deadline.
  11. Trov
    It is interesting they had Eeles jump AA and not move someone from AA up to AAA and him up to AA though. What I take from it is they see Eeles as a career minor league guy actually where others they want a more linier growth in their moving up leagues. With Eeles skipping AA, for now, may be more of just need that he can fill more, or was closer to St. Paul to fill in.
  12. Trov
    The issue I have with this is you are only using comparison bWAR, which is a poor way to assess a trade. Specifically, look at the Mahle for Steer and CES trade. Steer has decent bWAR, but we do not know if he would have had a chance to put up that bWAR with Twins. He is limited on defense to either 2nd, 1st, or LF for most part. At the time, Polanco was starter at 2nd, Arraez was 1st base/LF guy, really similar defense profile to Steer. Miranda was 1st/DH guy coming doing good rookie year. AK was still thought to be possible 1st base when healthy, and DH/LF was Larnach, Wallner on prospect list, and Nick Gordon was doing okay filling in left. Also, in minors we had Julien, Lee, and Martin who were ranked high prospects than Steer. Would Steer have even made our 40 man? Who was he going to clearly be ahead of? Yes, as things played out he may have been able to do 2nd or 1st last year because of injuries and the like, or some LF too. However, that is not certain. Same is for many of the other position players that were traded in these deals, we have no clue how much they would have played for us, because you need to see who they would have played instead of. Yeah, overall we have not got a ton of our "buying" moves, but most of them were not big time moves where we gave up big time prospects either. The worst and what was the biggest swing was Lopez. He as having career year at the time and we overpaid for a guy that made transition to pen and was doing great. That is the only one where we could use Cano, who figured it out in Baltimor and Pavich right now. Outside of those 2 I am not sure anyone else would make contributions much at MLB level for us.
  13. Trov
    I feel Morris will need to move way up prospect lists this year. He is doing even better in AA than in High A this year. I know much of prospect lists are ceiling and hype and 4 year college guys will not get much of that, but he is still 22, will be 23 in a couple months.
  14. Trov
    I wrote a forum on this exact thing the other week. Glad Ted took it and ran with it. I think CC was the right one for us. We were not going to get Seager and Turner contract was too long. Why did you not include Xander Bogaerts, he signed as a SS for Padres in 2023 on an 11 year deal. It has not worked out well this year so far, last year was ehh.
  15. Trov
    Dyson there was rumblings that SF hid arm issues, or at minimum Dyson was hiding it from team. Mahle had pitched a full season year prior and only missed a couple of starts in the year we traded for him. He had history early in career, and had a IL stint a couple weeks prior to trade but to expect missing rest of that season and basically the whole next was not something teams were expecting.
  16. Trov
    The contract that was signed was very much set up based on his possible value, but with taking into account his long history of injuries. I fully expect a few more stints on IL this year. However, if we can make playoffs and he be healthy and hot, he is the type that can carry a team through a playoff series. We have yet to see him be healthy in the playoffs, let alone be hot. On the flip side, he can get so cold that you just shake your head at his swinging at sliders low and away three straight times. I do feel the team did him a huge disservice when he was coming up, making all kinds of changes to his swing every time he had a slump.
  17. Trov
    He has pitched against the playoff teams he would expect to face this year. He gave up 3 runs in 6 innings against Cleveland, they got all 3 on a 3 run HR. It was his second game of year. He faced Yankees, best offense in league, or 1 run behind Baltimore for most runs scored at least, and gave up 4 runs in 5.1 innings pitched, not good, but not wheels falling off. He has faced other top half offense teams and done well. Is he a lock down Ace, no, but I would trust him this year in a playoff game. He clearly has worked on his other pitches.
  18. Trov
    When I saw the headline I was thinking the article would have several terrible ideas about who to trade to, but it was at least some thought into it. The Philly idea makes the most sense overall. However, the issue is that Kepler has very little value in trade. He is league average hitter, that plays good to great defense. Yes, he has had hot runs in his history but outside of his second half last, and no playoff output, he has never had long run of success but more so just a few weeks at a time. Corner outfield spots are easy to fill. Just as the article points out we have much depth there. Not many teams that are buying will give up much MLB ready talent for him on a rental. He also will not be getting QO, because he would be a fool to turn it down. I agree it makes sense to trade Kepler to get something for him if you feel you can replace him for rest of year, but he will not fetch much of a return.
  19. Trov
    I would not look for any of them. Snell will pick up his option for next year most likely, so unless the Giants put in a ton of cash, it will be hard taking on his money for next year. Snell has had 2 Cy Young seasons wrapped around several injury filled middle of road seasons. Verlander is someone I would take on but he will not leave Houston for Minnesota. He like Houston and unless they are fully out of it he will not go anywhere. The other 2 just no.
  20. Trov
    I remember around this time last year many were calling for Cossetti to be listed as top prospect and fly up the minor leagues.
  21. Trov
    They both have shown why you do not just dump guys because of some struggles. So many fans were writing both off after last year and felt trades or DFA should be done. Where would we be this year without them? Everyone was sold that Wallner jumped past Larnach to a point that Larnach was out the door. It took longer than some would like but Larnach finally seems to have adjusted to how they pitch him at MLB level. The book is still throw offspeed over and over, with a once in awhile show me fastball out of the zone or way on edge to keep him honest once in awhile. Like yesterday, he saw no fastballs from Castillo. Castillo went changeup in middle of zone, then changeup low changeup low over and over. The fact he is taking some of them for balls, and then actually hitting them when they are strikes is huge. Miranda just is healthy. I say it time and again, even little injuries where you are just dealing with pain, can affect so much in your swing, or pitching that you do not even notice until that pain is gone. They talked on game last night about the high fastball Miranda is doing better with this year. Think about how last year, his back shoulder was in pain, as someone who broke his shoulder once, it is hard to lift it up fully sometimes and if he could not lift his back arm up high enough, makes it hard to hit the high fastball at all.
  22. Trov
    I was watching PTI the other day and Kornheiser made a statement that got me thinking. He was asked who was best player to never win a championship in baseball. He said first, I will not consider anyone after the playoff expansion, which he did not make clear if he meant from 2 teams to 4 or 4 to 8, or what it is now. Either way, he said the reason he would not consider it because it is much easier now for a player to win a championship now then back then. I understood where he was coming from, that now more teams make playoffs each year, so you have more chances to make the playoffs and get through that, but on the reverse side with more teams in playoffs, if you make the playoffs you have more series to get through to win a championship. So the question is, because more teams make the playoffs is it easier for a star player to now win a championship, or was it easier for a star player before because the best teams in a 162 game season made the playoffs and only had to win 1 or 2 series until the late 90's?
  23. Trov
    This article has been talked about before. I find a deal unlikely to happen. First, Boras rarely has his clients sign a deal like this. I could see a similar deal like Witt where really they bought out a couple of FA with opt outs, and just did cost control of arb years. I doubt Lewis buys out 2 years of FA, maybe 1 to know he is getting paid. Look at some of the contracts in last few years under current CBA rules. Specifically someone like Bogaerts, or Turner. They both got very long contracts when entering age 30 season in FA. They both got 11 year deals nearly $300 mil. If Lewis signed a deal that took him to age 35 or 36, he would be missing out, possibly on a few seasons, because unlikely he would get a 4 or 5 year deal at 30 mil a year at that point. Maybe if players start making a ton more in next decade, but unlikely. So unless we overpay to buy out those years, Boras is gonna tell him he is leaving money on the table. Now, if Lewis wants to make sure he makes life changing money he would be willing to, because for all he knows he will have career ending injury any time. That is the risk of the player that he may get hurt too bad to play, but he may already have an insurance policy on that as well. Points is, Lewis has a lot more to lose by signing that long of a deal, even one with options buying out 1 or 2 years of FA. Now, signing a deal that controls what arb years looks like makes sense for both sides, but with some of the recent deals 30 year old guys have gotten Lewis would best bet on himself, unless he is fine leaving upwards of $100 mil on the table if not more.
  24. Trov
    Interesting way of building a team, you would rather have a guy with -0.2 bWAR so far this year over a guy with 1.8 bWAR, and guy with 0.8 bWAR over a guy with 1.7 bWAR so far this season. But if that is how you feel okay. I mean even Vasquez has same bWAR as Bo Naylor. I doubt many would swap Bo Naylor for Jeffers straight up and consider it a win for the Twins.
  25. Trov
    They are treating Raya very similar to how they treated Duran, but even more restrictions. I fully agree they either need to let him be a normal starter and pitch into 5th going through rotation 2 plus times, or just transition him fully to a pen roll and move him up that way. I can get wanting to build up a guy slowly while you make adjustments to things, but three years of this is crazy if you really want him to be a starter.
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