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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    I find it unlikely this FO to do a pre-MLB debut deal with anyone. They are becoming more common but still very rare.
  2. Trov
    I know you using Holliday because of recent season he had, but they really not similar type players. Holliday is not a power hitter, may get some power as he ages, but right now his numbers were very much built off his walks and general batting average. I am not saying he will be either of these guys, but looking at path of Mike Trout and Juan Soto might be more interesting. both of them were called up year 19 seasons after crushing the minor leagues. Trout did not do great in his 40 games at MLB level at age 19, but starting age 20 he became best player of all time, possibly. Soto actually took off on his age 19 season when he was called up. Both where supported by great eyes at the plate and good power. Both were outfielders by trade. Neither were super hyped guys at time of entering minors. Trout drafted 25th and Soto signed as like outside top 20 players in his international signing. The Harper comp is interesting because Harper was tagged the next big thing, and has been good to great, but only 1 year younger than Trout has 40 less bWAR for career. In part, Harper plays corner OF and has had up and down years. Really, if Jenkens can be close to any of them we will take it. I do not expect the Twins to be as aggressive as those three, all getting called up at 19, but if Jenkins comes out gate hitting like he finished the season, we could see a later season call up if injuries arise. However, a call up in 2025 is more likely if he crushes this year.
  3. Trov
    I am sure he will play out there. He will play like 30 games out there before he is moved to DH only or back on IL for rest of season. The man cannot play a full season, no matter what position he plays. It sucks because he has the talent to be great, but not the body to stay healthy. He has had about every injury a man could have over his career it would seem too.
  4. Trov
    I was impressed with Terry Ryan as both a person, and GM early in his time with Twins. I do feel as he got older the game passed him by a little bit. I do wish he would have never passed the job over to Bill Smith, and by time he returned either Bill put us into too deep a hole, or the game had made too many changes from what he was used too. He at times was too loyal to players that had a good season with us, but he made good savvy moves early in his career. He wanted to put us on a path to be good long term, not an all in splash and hope type season or two. He made many mistakes, like letting Ortiz go for LeCroy, but he also made many good moves too. He took Johan Santana in rule 5 draft, but even better was he actually traded for him in a pre arranged trade where they got him and cash. The mid-season trade for Shannon Stewert was huge. He also traded for Nick Punto. He had some hit and misses in the draft, but overall led the team to be a division champ several seasons. One note to writer, the Aguilera trade for Loshe was to the Cubs and Red Sox, the Aguilera trade to Red Sox was in 1995 for Frank Rodriguez, we then resigned Aguilera as FA that season and traded him in in 1999 to Cubs.
  5. Trov
    From what I have read up on him is if he can make contact he can be decent, but strikes out way too much for a guy who has almost no power as well. Sounds a bit like Billy Hamilton.
  6. Trov
    Boras has always played the game of give me an offer first, or we will hold out for the offer we want. They have been willing to go into spring training at times too. Sometimes he gets his clients good deals, but sometimes it seems to hurt their performance when they do sign.
  7. Trov
    You never know how they will do this year. Although they had some young guys have good stretches, you never know if they will regress or build on it. I do think they will be biggest competitor to Twins.
  8. Trov
    I think there are more players that could have done both if teams were willing to do it. Mad Bum is a recent one that was a good hitter, and if given chance could have put up decent numbers as a hitter. Mike Hampton was another guy that hit over .300 as a pitcher. Micha Owings, but he was not a great pitcher and should have been more of a hitter. Rick Ankiel went from pitcher to hitter, after he could not find strike zone. I personally think more teams will start to give guys the shot to do both. Now that we have seen it can be done, why not give more guys the shot? The thought was if you did not spend full time on one thing you would not be great at either. There will not be a ton, but there will be more I believe, and having DH in both leagues will help that. There will have to be teams that will give the player a true shot at it though.
  9. Trov
    I remember Tom Kelly saying during Joe's first spring training that if he was not playing catcher he would be a major league guy already. He said he most likely could have hit at MLB level right out of high school, but he was not ready to catch at MLB level yet. I think players and teams choose to take guys off of catcher for two reasons, one if they are a top offensive guy they want to make sure their bat is in lineup each day, and do not want to be worn down from catching. Two, they cannot defend it at a good enough level. One main reason catchers are not common in hall is they generally do not put up the offense required, and unlike CF or SS, their defense is not on major display with flashy plays. A good defensive catcher generally is not talked about a ton, because teams hardly try to steal on them, and they do not give up passed balls. Where guys like Ozzie Smith, who were terrible offensive guy, but was one of, if not, the best defensive SS of all time and would make you go wow with many of his plays. If you could not see his amazing plays, and he was sitting behind the plate being top defensive catcher of all time, he may not make HOF. Good for Joe, he deserved to be in HOF, and I was worried he was not going to get in, at least not right away, because he got moved off catcher and his overall counting numbers did not warrant HOF if not by a catcher. The fact in his prime at catcher he was one top hitting catchers ever is what got him in. It is possible if he did not play catcher but a different position he could have put up even better numbers over his career. It is possible he could still be playing even.
  10. Trov
    Jenkins may be the most hyped prospect for Twins since Buck was drafted. Lewis had some hype but not to Jenkins or Buck level. If Jenkins can hit ground running I could see him move up to AA by season end. Jenkins ended in low A and did better there than Rookie league. His eye at plate early on was good. I know it is SSS, but when people saying he would have been number 1 pick in many other recent drafts that helps the hype train. Lee has the looking of being a solid player but his ceiling is much lower, not saying he could not break out beyond what is expected, but he is thought of being just solid all around good hitter, but not great.
  11. Trov
    The Chapman signing by Pirates is savvy move. The Twins in the late 90's early 2000's did signings like that. They would sign a vet, knowing they planned to trade by seasons end and they hoped the player would show value to increase trade returns. Left handed pen guys will always be in demand and guys that have shown success in high leverage in past as well.
  12. Trov
    You know another player that hardly chased, had low hard hit rate, but sure produced on offense? Luis Arraez. His knock was always his lack of power. His contact rate is higher, but his walk rate is much lower too. They are not the same player by any stretch, but the point is you can get offense from more than just power. The fact Martin can run and steal bases will make him even more valuable. I still have some hopes for Martin.
  13. Trov
    The Twins were actually one of the more watched teams via TV in recent years. That is one of the reasons Bally agreed to pay to keep them the rest of the season, because it was one of the few deals that were making them money. TV deals are not piling up because it is not that simple. Right now with the change in how people are viewing it is affecting the TV market. The Twins contract has been up since end of season and yet no new broadcaster has come along willing to pay what Bally did last year, as least as far as we know. The Twins payroll has been near the league average for years, but fans that think team is cheap continue to act like their payroll is near what Ray or Oakland put out. There were 4 teams that payroll was nearly half ours, but fans act like we have the lowest payroll in the league. Outside of Padres, who are cutting a ton of payroll and reports they had to take out a loan to pay bills, every team ahead of us in payroll are much larger markets. Twin cities is about 16h largest metro area in country, every other team is in larger market. If the team was a cheap as some fans like to think, they would not be near league average in payroll they would be near bottom. They would not have went out and signed top free agents in last few years. They would have traded buck away in his free agent year, they would not have signed CC, or Lopez to contracts. Just because they are not spending like the top spenders does not mean they are being cheap. League average spending is not cheap.
  14. Trov
    The fact all three have Boras is one of the main reasons. First, he is known to hold out on signings, but he also looks to work on one client at a time, unless deals blow them away. He tries to sets markets for all his players.
  15. Trov
    This is not some new trend. Many guys have made the switch back and forth in history. The fact that there are many in one off-season may be a little bit odd, but nothing new.
  16. Trov
    I give little hype to any international signing. They are too young to really project for much. That is why the high priced guys flop just about as much as the low priced guys make big waves. In 2015 Juan Soto was ranked 22nd, and signed for 1.5 mil. In that same class, Gilberto Celestino was ranked 7, signed for 2.5, we signed Wander Javier for 4 mil. Fernando Tatis Jr. was 27th and signed for 700k. There are a few other names on the list, like Vlad Jr. was 4th signed for 3.9, but point is ranking 16 and 17 year old kids is very hard to do. Soto looks like sure fire HOF, barring injuries. Tatis Jr. put up crazy numbers early on, but has had off field issues a bit hurting him. Vlad Jr. is on a good path, but just about every other one are not in MLB or not looking like they will do much at MLB level. We never know how the kids will develop.
  17. Trov
    I say this past year is most likely an outlier year due to his planter fasciitis. When your feet are in pain, it will affect every part of your game, hitting more than defense. I am hopeful that will get cleared up over the offseason and he will get his offense back to above average for SS and his defense improves slightly too.
  18. Trov
    I find the knock on E-Rod is he may be too patient. First, a high K-rate will happen with a high walk rate too, it means he goes deep into counts. I never think a young guy taking walks is a bad thing. The hope is he will have more of a plan when pitchers get better. Right now he is most likely not chasing much. If he starts taking fastballs down the pipe early in counts that is one thing, but it shows at least for now he is not chasing a ton. Yes, he may not have great contact skills, but at same time if his contact skills are bad, will that improve by attacking pitches early in counts that are borderline strikes simply to be more aggressive? I do not know how much scouting Gleeman has done of E-Rod, I have done none, but to draw a conclusion based on stats is a poor way to evaluate a player. Maybe he is taking good strikes to be patient, but maybe he is taking close pitches for both balls and strikes and not swinging at pitchers pitches. Without watching him I would not know. I sure assume the team knows though.
  19. Trov
    If we could get him on the cheap I would be for it, but I find that very unlikely. He would be fun to have returned to DH or play 1B, but as much as I like him, I think we can build a stronger team without him. His knees are causing him to have almost 0 speed, and will age very quickly. The fact that he has very little power too means he will become a poor defending singles hitter. He is reaching his prime, but he does not profile well as a guy in his 30's. Although he would be FA before then. That is why for next couple years I am fine with him if we do not have to give up much to take him back.
  20. Trov
    I have a feeling the shoulder affected him much more than he wanted to admit. When you are in pain, no matter body part, it will affect your swing in some way. When we are talking about the smallest fraction of an inch in a swing being the difference between hitting a line drive or a weak pop up or ground ball, every little twitch will make a difference. I would not count him out as a possible offense guy, but I would also not count on him.
  21. Trov
    I have no clue what Seattle would be looking for Gilbert. Really it is what does Seattle think of him compared to others in their rotation. They unloaded Ray, so less of a log jam, even though they replaced with a starting pitcher in trade too. Based on 4 years of control, what he has done in his 3 years so far, and coming into his prime, I think the cost will be high. However, the other question is how much do they want to upgrade at 2nd and corner outfield? If they are motivated load up on MLB talent and top talent in AAA they may be willing to take a little less than they could get for Gilbert. My guess they would be asking for some combo of Polanco/Kepler(possibly both), Lee or Lewis, and a pitching prospect. It is a huge price to pay, but 4 years of control for a guy that is entering prime and coming off back to back 3.1 and 3.0 bWAR seasons, Lopez was 3.3 last year. I personally would not do it because it would wipe out our offense and set us back. Yes, it would upgrade pitching, but we have a lot of possible options at pitcher in coming years. Also, if Gilbert gets hurt like tommy john, then you lose a year or two of control. It is always a gamble to give up big for pitchers and you never know year to year what you will get.
  22. Trov
    Keeping your minor leagues stocked up the best way to have the ability to replace people. You can trade from depth to fill holes where you do not have depth, and you trade guys at peak value if you have young people to replace. That is how the Rays do it for years. It takes an ability to identify possible young talent, and developing that talent in the minors.
  23. Trov
    It is nice to see late round picks develop, but it also raises the question on why so many higher round picks then are not developing over the late round guys?
  24. Trov
    Okay, why are you comparing Luzardo and Clevinger? Luzardo is 26 is on the rise of his pitching career, and Clevinger is 33 on the fall of his career. They should not be compared in any way, even more so on their career numbers. I am not saying Twins should do trade proposed, but to use an aging veteran that is on the back of career and compare him to guy entering his prime should not be done.
  25. Trov
    I think the good baseball minds make the difference, and they try to compare catchers to each other, but they still require catchers be high offense guys. In part, top defense catchers are hard to really quantify and the eyes do not go wow, like when Ozzie Smith played SS. He got in on his defense, because you could see the plays he made. A top defending catcher you will not say wow did you see that, all to often. In regards to the wear on the body, it gets brought up, but yeah many do not even realize. I remember being asked to fill in as catcher just for a practice and my knees were killing me. Sure, I was not taught the right way to crouch, or worked on that, but I could only imagine. Also, the catcher makes more throws than any player on the field. Yes, only a few are at full strength so not as much wear on arm like a pitcher, but still the motion will be tiring. He also takes pitches all over his body like no other. So yes, most catchers go to plate, bruised up and sore but still expected to produce at a high level of offense. It is crazy.
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