DocBauer

When the Twins acquired Celestino, I was intrigued. Not blown away, but intrigued. (Duran was the prize at the time, IMO). But after his 2019 season, mostly at then LOW A Cedar Rapids, I became optimistic we got a really talented young OF with potential. He hit, got OB, stole bases, and provided XB and some HR power. What was there to not like? And as Cody pointed out, despite missing 2020 entirely, and only 8 GAMES at high A, he began 2021 at AA. Two very bad things have happened to Celestino the past two years: 1] With a grand total of 8 games at A+ in 2019 and a whopping 21 games at AA he was promoted/rushed to the BIGS due to a vast array of injuries. He clearly wasn't ready. And what did he do? He went to AAA and basically raked for 49 games. 2] The Twins went in to 2022 with Garlick as their only RH OF bat, besides Buxton, which had been an obvious weakness for a couple of years. So they "trusted" the rushed and not yet ready Celestino to play a significant part on a team that was expected to compete for a post season spot. Sorry, not sorry, the kid has talent but had a cup of coffee at AA and 2 cups at AAA before being asked to be a productive ML OF and hitter. And despite this, he won't even turn 24yo until just before ST starts. Honestly, if you step back for a moment and reflect, his rushed promotion has been handled in the same "p*ss-poor" manner as was Polanco. (Old but accurate reference). Polanco overcame these early issues to become a very good ML player. And "very good" might be under selling him. The very best thing the Twins could do, and should do, is ADD a RH bat better than Garlick...beating the same poor horse yet again...and let Gordon and Gallo cover CF when Buxton needs a day off. The team, the lineup needs it, and so does Celestino so he can play daily at St Paul, get his legs under him, hit and play, take everything he's learned, get better, adjust, round off the rough edges, and be ready when called on. HIS CEILING: A starting CF for many teams, but a fill-in with Buxton entrenched. IDK if he has it in him to be a 20 HR hitter, but he's got XB pop/power in his bat, XB and SB ability, and hit and OB ability based on his milb career. (POTENTIAL starting LF for the Twins over several options, including Martin who might look better NOW). HIS FLOOR: Everything stated above but as a 4th OF who plays great defense in all 3 spots, as well as PH, PR, and and adds decent hitting, OB, pop/power, etc, but on a 4th OF basis. SHAME on the FO, IMO, if they ignore a RH OF bat need for the ML 2023 team and ignore the potential of a quality asset that could pay dividends with a little more development time.

I agree. Everything you stated is correct. But just to be fair, when building a roster, there is, obviously, room for players who aren't power plants, but merely good, and productive hitters. Guys who get OB, who can continue innings, advance runners, be clutch, etc. And Arraez is that kind of player. And I know you know this, I'm just stating the obvious. I think a comparison between Arraez and Gallo might be a better analogy. IF the Gallo we signed is the pre-2022 version, he is a K machine with low BA. But his OB and power makes him productive and dangerous with a career .794 OPS even including his horrific 2022. And he's over .800 pre 2022. Arraez, still in his mid 20's, through physical development and experience, has begun to develop some pop/power, though he will never be a powerful hitter. But he already has a career OPS of .784. And he was over .800 for much of 2022 until injuries affected him for part of the 2nd half of the season. AVG and OB only gets you so far. His ability to provide 40+ XB hits raises his total game, as well as total value for now, and the future. Martin is a very similar player to Arraez, but with much more speed. (Talking hitting, not defense). I've often thought, and commented, that I think Martin could be a RH version of Royal's great Alex Gordon...a little less HR power but probably a better AVG and OB version of him, with a little more speed. I see a ton of doubles, eventual mid teens HR power, double digit SB and maybe 20+, and hitting and getting OB while being a quality LF who can play a solid CF and can cover 2B/3B if and when you need him to. If even more power develops, that's a bonus. But he doesn't have to be a 20+HR hitter to be valuable and very good.

Pure speculation on my part, but it almost feels as though the Mets are looking for an "out" at this point, or are pushing Boras and Correa to walk away. It's still not hard to imagine another team swooping in for a somewhat similar type of deal and grabbing Correa. I'm of the opinion the Twins HAVE been talking to Boras and not simply making a courtesy call to wish everyone a Happy New Year. No clue whatsoever if the original offer is on the table, slightly amended, or more than slightly amended. But I think there has been real conversation about a possible deal. Again, I'm just speculating/spitballing here, but I'm thinking 8-10yrs with a bump the first 3-4yrs in AAV to keep the total $ close to their original offer, an opt out after 3 or 4 years for Correa to bet on himself, and then slowly decreasing $ values per year to decrease payroll "burden" if/as Correa begins to slide in the later years. This accomplishes more than a few items : 1] The Twins get a prime player for his prime years, even if he opts out at some point. A prime player who has been healthy the past few years, and was to close out 2022. 2] Correa and Boras both save face with a high $ and year deal with guaranteed $ over the entire contract. And, as mentioned, Correa gets to bet on himself and opt out in about 4yrs, showing everyone he's still fine, and look for another deal at 32yo. 3] Despite the fact that team incomes and payrolls will continue to rise over the next few years...and a $20M ish AAV by then will be the equivalent of about $14-15M now...the Twins payroll is better "protected" for any decline at that point to allow greater flexibility for signings and extensions and the such. NOT SAYING this is going to happen. But I CAN see it happening as it makes sense and I see the Mets deal just falling apart at this time.

THIS! I believe the SS experiment is over, yes? He should be a primary LF/CF who's arm isn't great in RF, but he can sure cover the ground out there as well. As a former 3B/2B, there should be no reason he doesn't continue to get some reps there to increase his value to the team. He's athletic enough that some degree of power hitting should come naturally. And if he plays good defense, hits, gets OB, takes and steals XB, and can be a doubles machine with 14-15 ish HR power he'd be an outstanding ballplayer.

Not a big guy, but good velocity, solid K numbers, and finding better control of his curve...change in grip or whatever...he might be interesting. But the peripherals are just not good. Not excited about this at all. But it's keeping Enlow on the 40 man initially and cutting him that confuses me. He's still young and there should be some optimism in regard to velocity and control his 2nd year post surgery. So why risk loosing him at this point? Something just doesn't feel right. Would have made more sense to me to spend some of the $ they have available on Fulmer instead of a flier like this.

Through all of these rumors and vast speculation, the one thing I've always wondered is why Correa almost didn't just jump at the Twins offer one the deal with the Giants fell through. And more of the same with the Mets. $285-295-300M, I mean over 10yrs it's a pittance per season. And unless the information we had is greatly outdated, he has an opt out after 3-4yrs. What better way to bet on himself?

I'm of similar opinion. I don't think all is doom and gloom in Twinsland, provided the team can avoid the almost comically tragic injury situation of 2022 and just play ball with their mix of veterans and young talent. And I can't disagree with your 3 point plan, but have my own thoughts as well. 1] OF: Despite a front page OP, and my own forum thoughts, (quickly dismissed by the group), a few weeks ago, I'm not crazy about McCutchen. I like his experience and presence, and I'd be IN if I felt more comfortable that he'd be his 2021 self PER PLATE APPEARANCE. Who knows, he might surprise, but he's not my choice at this point. I'm torn between Pollock and Mancini. Pollock is not the player he was, but he was good in 2021 and only OK in 2022. But he still hit LHP well last year and is an OK OF who has enough experience to be a 3rd or 4th option in CF with Gordon and Gallo. But I'm also leaning towards Mancini as the best choice. He can still play some corner OF...doubt he'd be worse than Garlick...and can play a solid 1B, working in with the LH Arraez and Kirilloff. I think he's the right choice. 2] BULLPEN: I also believe in Lopez's stuff and believe his brief, mediocre Twins term in 2022 will turn around. I also have a lot of belief in the futures of both Moran and Alcala. But why just immediately "trust" in them, and their potential, when you have the $ to sign at least one option, if not two, to deepen the pen and set it up for success to deepen the STAFF as a whole and support the rotation? Chafin is still out there. So is Hand, probably on a 1yr deal. Why not add a LH to team with Thielbar? There might even be room for THREE LH BP arms, especially considering Moran's splits. That would be a huge luxury! Just as the rotation will need depth at some point, so will your bullpen probably need at least 12 guys. Personally, I discount Pagan not from spur grapes, but I just don't believe in him. I think he's traded or cut eventually for poor performance. So consider: Lopez, Duran, Thielbar, Chafin/Hand, Fulmer, Jax, Alcala, and Moran as your as your 1 and occasionally 2 IP guys. NOW, you have Winder, Sands, Henriquez, etc, as at least ONE long/middle guy, and you might keep two. I think we're in agreement there's something to work with, and opportunity to add that gives the best and deepest bullpen they've had in YEARS. 3] ROTATION: I'm just not interested in Wacha, even if he's a cut above Bundy and Archer. I feel the Twins are just better off giving a shot to the likes of Varland, SWR, and the previously mentioned Winder over another mediocre veteran who doesn't have a future with the team. (FWIW, my understanding has been interest in Wacha would be to replace Gray in a potential trade, but who knows for sure). I have serious reservations in regard to a trade for Pablo Lopez. I get that he's young, talented, and offers upside. But this is where you and I will potentially disagree. Thus far, his numbers don't scream top of the rotation starter. And again, young and with potential, he's got 2yrs of control and could be an extension candidate. And he's coming off a career year in regard to GS and IP. So maybe he's on the cusp of something? But is he better than a healthy Gray? And is he worth what it might take to get him? I'm not sure the Twins are a perfect trade option as Miami is looking for immediate offense, and not prospects, per reports. Does Kepler fit their needs? Or might they prefer the ready/near ready Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner and at less $? Perhaps they would be looking at Julien as a near ready inclusion. And Arraez? IMPO, Arraez should NOT be traded unless the deal is just too good to pass up. He can cover 3B and 2B just fine here and there, but is best at 1B and DH. And what's wrong with that? He's a unique and special kind of hitter who fills a role as a hitter, clutch hitter, and OB machine who has enough pop to be dangerous once in a while. He's special in his role, and his loss leaves a potential gaping hole at the top of the Twins lineup if removed. At some point, the Twins need to stop trading long term talent and potential for 2yrs of control unless they are going to open up their wallet for extensions. Having Lopez could be NICE, but it's the immediate and future cost to get him that concerns me. I guess I'm of the current opinion that adding a bat, adding to the pen, and running with the current rotation and rotation options might not just be the wisest course.

Can't disagree with you. The key to 2023 and beyond is getting healthy...an exhausted comment I know, but factual...and setting up the young talent to actually succeed. I'm with you on that. I think most would agree. Where we might disagree, somewhat, is still trying to win as many games at the same time. And I don't think either approach is mutually exclusive. The rotation has a chance to be pretty good, and offers some young talent and young depth. The bullpen, especially with another quality addition, maybe two, has a chance to be good to great. But right now, there really is NO-ONE to fill the role of RH OF bat to augment the lineup and depth. Martin isn't ready yet, and I think most of us agree Celestino has the tools to be a solid overall player, but lacks polish and has been rushed. And neither, at this point, seems to be a power plant type of bat. (Maybe in time). And that's OK. And yes, someone probably has to be moved in some sort of deal to alleviate the crowded picture in the OF. But a RH bat who might add a couple more wins still does, potentially, do exactly that, add a couple more wins. And said bat wouldnt/shouldn't necessarily be an every day performer who blocks the young LH bats. He'd be time sharing and filling a role. And I believe there's room to make that addition, flesh out the lineup options, competing for as many wins as possible, while still running with the young guys.

Nice to see someone finally mention Martin. I'm actually starting to get excited about him after a strong last couple of months last year and his AFL appearance. (Though I know the AFL is offense centric). Brent Headrick is one of my "under the radar" choices for help in 2023.

Not the guy I targeted, for sure. He's probably on my 3rd tier. But for 1yr and cheap, I'm at least interested. Not asking him to be a starter, just a good role player and clubhouse guy. I'd like the idea more if I felt confident the 2021 version of him was what we'd see in 2023. But there are no guarantees. I think there's 2 better choices out there, but that's just my opinion.

Roger, I appreciate your thoughts. And truth is, 75% of the time the lineup will face a RHP, so the odds are a lineup leaning LH makes sense. The issue is those other 25-30% when facing LHP in which the Twins have, for some reason, been inept the past few years. POTENTIALLY, young hitters such as Larnach and Kirilloff are solid against same side pitching, but have SSS. Polanco and Arraez, who I love, tend to hang in tough against LHP, but are not as good. Yes, Farmer might help, as well as Jeffers, but we're talking depth and opportunity as it's presented. Imagine a LHP pitcher on the mound in the 2nd inning of a game with a runner on base, maybe even in scoring position, how much more comfortable is that pitcher facing a .700 OPS hitter vs one who produces at a .780 clip or better? Think about a RH hitter facing a LH bullpen arm in the same situation in the 7th or 8th inning? It's about depth, being able to stack the lineup appropriately to begin a game, but also having the flexibility to have a RH off the bench that might make a difference without risking "giving an at bat away" scenario. Baseball is about matchups. And, unfortunately, the Twins have lost the matchups against LH pitching too much the past few years. More depth, more balance, offers more opportunity for that clutch hit that can add a win or two.

Yes! Please! This has been an ongoing issue for at least 2yrs now. The Twins will face LH pitching something like 25-30% of the time based on starters and bullpens. They need RH help for an OF that leans almost entirely to the port side. Pollack and Mancini were my 2nd tier, but they still offer real help. Neither is lousy with the bat, but both beat up on LHP. Pollack is the better OF defensively, while Mancini can play some 1B as well as some corner OF. Just get one of them. Otherwise, we settle for Garlick and go out and make another trade? Even McCutchen isn't a horrible idea. His numbers took a slide in 2022, definitely better the year prior, but he was excellent against LHP just a season ago on 2021. We're not asking him to start on a daily basis. We want an occasional OF start, PH, maybe e en DH once in a while.

I had forgotten this was a sticking point in the last CBA. Jeremy, forgive me if I'm being dense here, but instead of signing international FA in July of 2022 we are now signing them by January 15th of 2023? Just want to make sure I'm getting this right. If true, doesn't that actually help the kids for ML clubs to have more time to evaluate? And while you are not a scout, you are smart as hell. I know you find guys like Arraez for next to nothing. And then you spend $M on Sano. And you always want to grab and sign the best young talent you can. But it seems the Twins have always looked at position players, with the exception of catcher, and have always ignored young arms. Memory has me going back to Ryan leading the organization. I'm not saying my memory is great. And I'm certain I've forgotten a few players and arms here and there. And the last year or so, I've noticed a number of Latin kids at the FCL level. A preponderance even. But the top signings always appear to be SS and OF. In your opinion, are they ignoring Latin catchers with talent and arms with projectabilty? Because it sure seems there are a ton of catchers and arms from Latin countries who have established themselves at the ML level, or who are top prospects. I keep feeling the Twins are missing opportunity here.

And that's what's so frustrating to me! I also want to see the pipeline begin to produce. But this NOT the NFL or NBA draft where you get immediate or 2nd year results from draft picks! When I laid out the progression of HS or college SP selections on page 1, I was using an example of a TOP selection who had ZERO injury setbacks or ANY refinement issues. In 2019, the Twins selected an electric arm in Canterino in the 2nd round. He's been pretty much dominate and exciting WHEN on the mound. But for arguement sake, let's just say he's been 100% healthy since the Twins "babied" him a bit after the draft and did what they did, and what most teams do, and he gets a few starts, or even a HALF season in A ball after being drafted. And remember, that's about all you get once a signing took place. So NOW, the 2020 milb season is canceled. Unless you are a team like the Tigers at that time, with no winning aspirations, how many 2019 draftees do you place at the alternate site with a limited roster? Do the Twins, coming off a division win, and thoughts of another in 2020, place a "rookie" on that roster with ZERO chance he's going to contribute to your team? Follow the logic now. So in theory, a fully healthy Canterino, your talented 2nd round pick in 2019, who flashed in half a season of A ball in 2019 after being drafted, and going through instructs, goes to AA to begin 2021. And he looks so damn good that despite his limited experience, he's promoted mid year to AAA. And while you don't have to add him to the 40 man yet...and maybe don't want to...he gets a late season call up to start a few games. And he looks so good in his brief appearance there, that you just write his name in ink for the just completed 2022 season. And he's supposed to be what in 2022? An ACE? A top of the order #2 at least going in to 2023? Get drafted. Miss a year. Dominate so well that you get a September audition, then you're in the rotation in 2022 and ready to lead your staff in 2023? What kind of fantasy, everything goes beyond perfect world does this happen? Do I like the changes in development structure in the milb system with our FO? ABSOLUTELY! Do I agree 100% with their draft philosophy? Not entirely. Do I think they blew the short/limited 2020 draft by outsmarting themselves and going for position players in a draft with a number of solid but not great college arms that MIGHT offer future rewards and ONLY select the good looking young Raya? ABSOLUTELY! I am NOT an apologist for the FO. I like so much of what they've done. But I have some real issues in regard to a few drafts, and some FA signing possibilities and opportunities that I felt they just whiffed on! BUT, I understand a lot of the moves they HAVE made. History clearly shows, percentage wise, that Petty will either never turn out, or will be average, or move to the pen. That's just history. So while waiting for the pipeline to deliver quality arms, the FO has made moves to bring in quality arms to the team. We can lament the potential of Petty. (I hated to lose that potential as well). But I bet there's a ton of Ray's fans upset they let Ryan go. And IF SWR becomes even a really good #3, at some point there are going to be a lot of upset fans that they traded him. How much fun was it watching Maeda on the mound for the Twins in 2020? It cost us a big arm that is a pretty good BP that still might turn out great. But I don't know about you, but I'd make that trade again a 100 times for 2020. Trades of prospects and players is how you build a team. Major League Ready had a TREMENDOUS post about how Cleveland built their pipeline of pitching. It's just NOT drafting arms and in a couple 2-4yrs they are ready to dominate. It's about drafting, development, and smart trades to get the right guys where and when. We can all find mistakes in the FO. Paddack? Sheesh! ONLY if his 2nd surgery works and we'd like to re-sign him. Maeda? Great move. Gray and Mahle? I actually expect a pair of quality seasons from both now that the MLB world has gotten back to "normal". And I wouldn't doubt we'll be talking about extensions or offers for either, or both, at some time in 2023. But there remains opportunity for the pipeline to continue to flow next year. Varland and SWR are just a part of what we've already seen, in various forms. And it's up to the FO TO MAKE IT WORK! That's on THEM. But some idea that we should have already developed an ACE or similar via the milb system at this point is rather "mjsguided" IMO.

I became a Celestino believer after his 2019 season, mostly at A+, IIRC. I was really looking forward to seeing what he would do at AA in 2020 before the milb season was canceled. Frankly, I was disappointed when injuries decimated the Twins so much he had to be called up in 2021, because he was pushed and just wasn't ready. But he looked GOOD at AAA. I was also very disappointed when the Twins didn't add a quality RH OF for 2022 and Celestino was pushed yet again to the ML level. I just thought they did him a great disservice. And after a hot start with a completely unsustainable BABIP, it became obvious he wasn't prepared yet. I have no doubt he could be an excellent reserve OF who can do a few different things offensively and be a fine glove. Is he starting caliber for the Twins, or someone else? Hmmm...maybe. He's got a nice mix of solid bat with pop and speed and potentially great defense, but he's basically been pushed to the ML level before he was ready. For his sake...and the Twins especially...it's why I've pushed so hard for a solid veteran RH OF to be added last year, and again this season. I have no doubt Celestino has learned a lot with the Twins, but he and the organization would be much better off adding that veteran bat to allow him to work on his bat and overall game at St Paul to begin 2023, and be much more ready the next time his name is called. To me, IMO, it's so obvious that I keep screaming on my soapbox as to what the smart move is. And it's damn frustrating the FO doesn't see it.

I can't argue with this list at all, nor quibble with Lewis being on it, even though injury derailed his season. GORDON: I was defending him before 2021 started and some marked him as an easy cut from the 40 man. The FO has stuck by him since they arrived as they could see his potential. I'm so gratified that patience won out for the kid. He wasn't bad in 2021 and, as per his previous MO, he adapted and grew in his 2nd ML season. I suppose some regression is possible, but I doubt it. He's very talented, works hard, loves the game, and brings a spark. And again, he's shown the ability to learn and grow at every level previously. He's got some pop/power, despite his frame, that seems to come with quick twitch reactions and an equally quick swing when he sees a pitch he likes/recognizes. I think this bodes well for his development. But agree with HerbieFan I'd like to see a few more line drives where his speed may play better. He's also got some baserunning and defensive rough edges to smooth over, but as long as he doesn't fall in love with trying to become a power hitter, I Ike his all around game and contributions. I disagree with him being the primary LF, however. A healthy Larnach...and there are others...are just too good of prospects with much more power and OPS potential. He's best used on a regular fill in basis as a super utility. And the same for SS. Right now, good or bad, the temp job belongs to Farmer. Gordon has played a lot of SS in the minors and a lot of SS during ST for the Twins. And while I don't feel he's poor at the position, he's never stood out or seemed to make any kind of defensive jump there. I DO LIKE the idea of him still working there and getting a few starts against tough RH pitching to rest Farmer, however. MIRANDA: 3B is his natural position. I think he will be at least OK there, and hard work will make him better. I think the bat is legitimate, but allow he will slump here and there as he grows as a ML hitter. It's only natural. Gut feeling has Lee eventually being even better defensively with a high quality bat that will move Miranda to a DAILY player who will play BOTH infield corners as well as DH. The Twins infield could be DANGEROUS in the next year or so, especially if Kirilloff can get right and stay right, and Miranda is going to be part of that. LEWIS: Really, there's not much to say about him that we don't all already know. He just has to get healthy and stay that way. Will he be ready July 1st? August 1st? I don't even care. I also don't expect...and really don't care...if he ever turns out to be a GG caliber SS. He's got all the tools to become at least very good! With his other tools, isn't that all we really and truly care about at the end of the day? JAX: Pleasantly surprised by his first year transformation to the pen. He was good. Experience should make him better. Yes, he could be better in regard to inherited runners. That's one of many stats that can be volatile. But experience should help him in that regard. DURAN: I never expected him to be this good this fast. But his STUFF, and his demeanor made this move an incredibly smart one. I know it's tantalizing to think of him as a potential SP. But some guys, and some arms, just aren't built for that, for whatever reason. I think of Smoltz and the Twins own Aguillera who were solid SP, but were special in the pen. I think Duran has found his spot. And he's going to have a great career and make a lot of $ in that career.

I'm an open, passionate and emotional person. So I tell you I was actually moved to tears when I watched all the videos of Target Field when it opened in 2010. I was thrilled and moved when I walked up to Target Field for the first time and took it all in with eyes and pictures with my 1st visit in August. My ONLY regret was discovering we had to buy special tickets to go upstairs to watch the game from the Budweiser deck in LF. Sooo wanted to have a beer and watch at least part of the game from up there. Next time! Make sure you arrive early enough for a good walk around to take it all in.

My initial thought, before reading, was, "Really? It's on these two kids?" But salient points all the way around. Nice article! I am also impatient to see the pipeline actually start to produce fuel for the future. And while I will not make excuses for the FO...I believe in holding them accountable for all the good and not so good...I personally still offer them some slack for 2 primary reasons. 1] While we are all tired of it, the inevitable truth is all but a handful of prospects lost an entire season of development in 2020. Yes, every team was affected. And NO, not everyone was derailed in some way as some talented young pitchers...and position players... have reached the ML level and done well. (BTW, this includes various Twins as well). But some were just drafted in '18-'+19, and saw their development delayed. Again, this is true for all teams. Additionally, Falvey and Levine have had 6 drafts thus far, including the most recent 2022 addition. It's not 7yrs, as some have stated. (Joined October of 2016). It would be unreasonable to expect anyone drafted in the '20-'22 drafts to be knocking on the proverbial door, much less breaking it down and being some sort of rotation mainstay. So the "pipeline" at this point would include anyone of relevance within the system before they came on board, as well as draftees from '17-'19. So even with the missed 2020 year, we're talking about a collection of HS and college arms from those 3 drafts being ready. Just to be real, a HS arm drafted in 2017 would have been in short season rookie ball. If he was a TOP prospect, he'd at least be in low A to begin 2018. Even if he as aggressively promoted straight to high A in 2018, he'd be looking at AA in 2019. Now, that's damn aggressive for a HS kid, but it happens from time to time. But then 2020 happens, and all but a few of top prospects sat out the year, with a few working out at an alternate site, trying to gain some experience. So in this scenario, a TOP HS prospect now reaches AAA in 2021, and MAYBE debuts at some point that year. So now, said TOP HS prospect is ready to have a FULL rookie season in 2022 for his team. And this is just logical steps for a TOP prospect who has no injuries, no setbacks of any kind, and makes steady progress at every level. And I understand an 18yo HS pitcher is different than a 21-22yo college draftee. But more times than not, that college pitcher goes to low A initially for what is a half season once signed. So there a half to a full season ahead of a HS draftee. And yes, they may be more mature physically and mentally, and advance more quickly. Simple logic. And thus, after having a half season of 2017, and 2 full seasons in '18-19, they might have debuted in 2020. Pretty sure a couple did, but not going to dig through 30 teams to see the few who did. So that leaves 2021 as either their debut, or 1st full seasons at the ML level. This is NOT making excuses to the FO, or the "pipeline", this is just NORMAL draft and develop timeliness that would fit most ANY drafted prospect. 2] The idea that someone you didn't sign or draft being a "non-developmental" prospect is absurd to me. You aquire talent in a number of ways, including trades. The fact that Ryan has looked pretty damn good, with potential, is on the Twins. The fact that Duran has been developed and converted is on the Twins. Jax's conversion looks sustainable. Moran's continued improvement is on the Twins. Ober's very nice debut, and his development, in 2021, and his quality results in 2022 when healthy, is on the Twins. Early debuts by Winder, Sands, Varland, SWR, is on the Twins. Hell, the initially solid debut from Dobnak, is on the Twins. (A healthy Dobber might surprise yet as rotation depth). And when I say "on the Twins", I mean the current FO and their coaches from the ML on down, and all their instructors. We have NOT seen what we want to see yet. And I'm as frustrated and anxious as anyone to see the proverbial "pipeline" deliver. But to a degree, we HAVE started to see the pipeline deliver. And if you take a step back and honestly look at everything I stated above, which is a PERFECT developmental scenario...which seldom happens...don't you have to realize that we're just starting to see the fruits of labor potentially blooming? Impatience and frustration are easy. Patience and perspective is much harder.

Very entertaining read. And I'm very jealous! Been a Twins fan for over 50yrs and a rabid one for well over 40yrs. But I've seen, I believe, the Twins play live 7 times in all of those years. The first was a double header against the Tigers in about '70 or '71 in the old Met stadium with my dad, the little league team he helped coach, and the head coach. The next 2 were against the Angels in '84 when my dad, uncle, and I attended the Olympics that year. And I believe I've been to Kaufman in KC 2 or 3 times. (Memories get mixed at times). Despite living in South Dakota and Nebraska my whole life, time, $, and opportunity never really lined to see them at home until recently. Afraid my Twins experience has mostly been on 57.0 out of Yangton, and games on TV during visits to family in SD, until I got the internet package about 10yrs ago. (One of the very best things about the internet)! I was FINALLY able to catch the Twins against the Rangers in August on a very special trip to the Cities with my father and previously mentioned uncle, who resides there now. A Vikings/Twins 2-for weekend that didn't allow time to catch the Saints, unfortunately. The OF was in shambles, the lineup did nothing, Ryan was great, and Pagan was his normal, explosive self. But it was a FANTASTIC experience nonetheless! It was actually the Twins HOF ceremony game mentioned. (We hadn't remembered that was the case until we arrived). I appreciate people with busy schedules and impatient children involved in such an affair, but we felt blessed to be there on that day, despite the loss to the Rangers. It was wonderful to see those who were inducted, visited, and hear the speeches. I didn't enjoy the cost for concessions, of course, but that was to be expected, lol. BUT, a pair of blue can "Twins Brew" tall boys for $25 was a bit much! (Good beer, but went cheaper after that). Seeing, and touring Target Field for the 1st time was amazing. The stadium and field were as gorgeous as I expected and seen on TV and video clips! We left with some sunburn, lol, a program I have framed in my family room, a pack of 3 commemorative pins, a couple other purchased souvenirs, and a head full of memories that will never leave! Visiting the Kernals, not that far from Omaha, and a return trip to see both the Saints and Twins on the same visit remain on mine and my father's wish list. Reading this, and being jealous, lol, only makes me want to do these even more. Go Twins!

A few things come to mind in regard to Larnach: 1] His pair of injuries are obviously very frustrating, and have robbed him of development time at the ML level, and the Twins lineup for his potential production. But neither injury was related to the other, so nothing chronic appears to be taking place here. 2] Coming out of college, if you read a dozen scouting reports...which I have...you would see a split of him being lumbering OF to an OF with at least average speed and athleticism, if not a good mover for being a pretty big guy. The majority or reports had him at least average. In relatively SSS, he's looked OK to me moving in the OF. And the arm is GREAT! He needs to continue to put in the work to track and take good routes, but I see a solid defensive OF, with the aforementioned great arm. IMO, if things work out well, I think he's probably destined for RF eventually with Martin in LF. (Not dismissing the potential of Wallner, but focusing on Larnach). 3] I love his power. When your, potentially, biggest question is finding a way to take all the power you show hitting the other way to having more pull power, you should feel pretty good about potential. He seems to have a solid eye, solid BA potential, and a decent OB as he doesn't appear to have outrageous K numbers. I'm not saying he's a finished product yet, but examining his bat in college and milb and his early returns at the ML level, he looks like he can be a pretty solid hitter. Since he was mentioned, I'm not dismissing Kirilloff in the lineup. There is no reason he can't continue to play some corner OF, I just feel he has the potential to be a very good 1B and will settle in their on a regular basis. Of course, unfortunately, his injury issue has been chronic. If his latest procedure actual works...knock on wood...he can be a difference maker in the lineup, even if he needs a little time to get comfortable. I just think he'll fit better at 1B on a more regular basis.

Good move. He's been solid since he came to us and should be a great #4 option. (HInt-hint, we should still maybe sign a LH FA).

A great article! Very detailed and in depth! Couldn't agree more. I'm a believer in Jeffer's potential and don't think we've seen the best of him yet. I think a lot of people sell him short on his defense and handling of the staff, and don't realize he's as young as he is, and still only has a little over 500 ML AB. Boy, if AK could just get healthy and stay that way, what a difference he could make! I would have made your post "6" instead of 4. Larnach could also be a major difference maker. He's solid enough in the OF, should get better in time, and has a tremendous arm. We've seen flashes of what his bat might bring. And I think a lot of people forget about and undersell on Ober. While his IP were regulated in 2021, with just cause, he looked really good and finished strong. He was good to great in 2022 when healthy. Will he always have injury concerns? Or did all the changes and improvements he made in 2021 just get temporarily messed up due to non monitored offseason workouts and a short ST? I believe he's a solid mid rotation starter if he can just take the mound a good 26-28 turns.

First of all, having baseball of any sort is better than not having baseball. I can't say I'm excited about 2023's W-L prospects as I've been pretty disappointed in the offseason thus far, even though I don't believe the FO is done yet. I firmly, 100% believe better health is the ABSOLUTE #1 key to 2023. 1] I'm by no means giddy with excitement about our starting staff, but I DO like it. ZERO structural issues with Mahle, who has been pretty forthright in stating the weird offseason, no work with the team (Reds), followed by a shortened ST and then trying to do too much "tired" his arm. Did this all have a similar affect on Gray? He was pretty damn good when healthy. How much better could he have been without the nagging hamstring issues? How much better can Ryan become, and how much better might he have been if not for being knocked out by covid? Ober had his IP monitored in 2021 but flashed and finished strong. He looked good when on the mound last year. Could he also have been affected by the strange offseason and short ST? How good can he be with 26-28 GS? Reports last season had the Twins really optimistic about how Maeda looked, especially his control, which is often the last thing to come back. I liked what I saw from Winder, generally, early in the year. Varland and SWR had really good milb seasons and certainly didn't look out of place in their debuts. Is it possible Dobnak's finger is healed and he can be a 6-9th SP option? I'm nervous, but like the talent base and possible depth. Even with Pagan still around...ugh...I like the foundation of the pen. I like it better if they add at least 1 more quality 7th-8th inning arm. While I still like Jeffers and don't believe we've seen his full potential yet, I really like adding Vazquez to be the leader behind the plate. My hunch is Miranda is going to be OK at 3B and continue to grow as a hitter. A healthy Polanco is a MAJOR KEY to the lineup. He was having a pretty good year until injuries stalled him. Can't forget batting champ Arraez! Can we be OK with Farmer at SS? Is there a way to improve there that doesn't cost too much and can allow him to be a super-sub? Are we better off taking a flier on someone like Andrus for a year? SS is, unfortunately, a potential issue for half, if not most of the year. I'm not a big fan of Joey Gallo or his signing. But I've come around as to the potential he brings. He brings GG defense equivalent to Kepler...who still may be moved...and has been a full time, ML OF, since 2017. There's a lot of ways to be a productive offensive player. If you take away his nightmarish 2022 season in which he just never fit in or felt comfortable in NY or LA, he has a career OPS of .830. So if you squint past 2022 and look at his other 5 seasons since 2017, you can see the method in the madness of the signing. We know who and what Buxton is and what he brings. I like the development of Gordon. A healthy, fully functioning Larnach and Kirilloff can be HUGE for 2023 and beyond. The talent is there. Is this their season to finally get right? I'd prefer Celestino and Wallner to begin the year at St Paul to smooth rough edges. I'd prefer Garlick to also be there as insurance because they'd still sign a better RH bat. Someone posted recently that the Twins faced LHP about 30% of the time in 2022, starters and relievers. Pollack and Mancini might be the last 2 FA RH bats who could actually make a difference. Both bring power and the ability to hit LHP. Pollack can play both corners, and be an fill-in here and there at CF. Mancini is better at 1B, but is capable of playing some corner OF as well as Garlick, I'd say. What I find so interesting, exciting, and equally frustrating is the Twins have actually been transitioning to the "next wave" since 2020 in various ways, but obviously with mixed and frustrating results due mostly to injury, as well as the customary, almost expected "learning curve". On the mound we've seen Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, and Moran begin to establish themselves. We've seen at least glimpses of Winder, Sands, Henriquez, Alcala, Varland, and SWR. Position wise it's been Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Celestio, Lewis, and Wallner. And almost all of them have teased and flashed. Not all will be starters or stars, but they make up, potentially, a pretty good looking team if they can begin to come on together. I think there's a lot to like and have anticipation for, veterans as well as young/younger talent. (Of course, kind of goes without saying there's at least a few more prospects to be excited about that haven't debuted yet but might be close). But I'm not satisfied right now. I'm just assuming Correa isn't going to drop back in our laps again. And any difference maker is already gone from the FA market. BUT, there is $ to spend and still some solid players available to deepen and augment the team we "have now". 1] For goodness sake, WHY do we keep ignoring the need for a solid RH bat that can help make a difference? Could be another win or two! How about all those 1 run games we lost? Better health may be the #1 issue for this team, but how about that game or two we might win by having a good RH bat? 2] I think Moran and Alcala could have really good, even bright, futures in the pen. And we ABSOLUTELY have to have 1 or 2 guys for middle relief to bridge the gap from starters to back end of the pen. (HELLO Winder, Sands, Henriquez, and others), but why COUNT on Moran and Alcala from day one when you can deepen the entire staff as a WHOLE by building up the pen? The $ is there to make a difference. 3] I just don't know about SS. How many "possible trade" scenarios and options have been presented here on TD? But none offer difference makers. What's the prospect cost for an OK SS to fill in until Lewis or Lee are ready? I'm not crazy about trading, but it's an option if it can be done cheaply. But I dare say...even though it's not exciting in the least...the Twins might be better off with a 1yr deal for someone like Iglesias or Andrus to just hold the spot, not embarrass themselves or the lineup, and let Farmer be a nice utility guy. I think there IS reason for some optimism, as Ted has pointed out. If you missed out on a difference maker, then spend the $ available to add that RH bat, a BP arm or two, and MAYBE you can still add a place holder at SS somehow. Work harder on the fundamentals that seemed missing at times last year. (Of course, having something better than a AAA team on the field makes a difference there as well). Raise the team WAR by deepening the team. Win more of those 1 run games by deepening the team. But healthy veterans allowed to produce and healthy youngsters finally allowed to hit their stride is probably still the #1 key.

EXCUSE ME HERE! I CLEARLY STATED that EGO can be a GOOD THING. I stated it can be about pride in one's self worth and a place in the world. I also CLEARY stated that EGO is ONLY a problem if it leads to conceit. Where did I state ANYONE was filled with conceit? You might want re-read what I posted. I even stated Cohen is playing within the current rules. I was VERY CLEAR as to the value of MLB changing their future to make a better, more profitable future for the sake of baseball. And that includes the EGO of the owners to have a franchise who can compete. I CLEARLY stated a YES and NO for the affects of Cohen and his future on MLB. As well as a hopeful affect on the future of MLB. So you either didn't either actually read what I said, OR, you're just bitter about something that I don't understand. .

Not disagreeing. And some front loading makes tons of sense, especially as I believe that was in the original offer. But I believe the initial offer had a player opt out at 4yrs. And I'd stick with that. That pays him, but let's him opt out when he's still around 31-32yrs old. And if I'm Boras and Correa...wanting to bet on himself...I'd really like this option. In fact, ultimately, it MIGHT play in the Twins favor as if he DID opt out at that stage. They would get 4 of his very best years and might be better prepared to "lose" him at that point, have a replacement option potentially available, and free up $ for extensions to current players and future signings. And if he sticks around, he gets 1 more opt out 2yrs later, at his discretion, and makes a boatload of guaranteed $ even if he never opts out. Personally, when the Giants deal was over and done, I thought the Twins deal still made better sense for Correa than the Mets offer. Another $30M guaranteed with ZERO opt outs vs being able to do so in 4yrs and look for yet another deal makes more sense to me from Correa's perspective. Turner is about 3yrs older than Correa and got a $300M deal. So why not take a somewhat lesser, still guaranteed deal, and re-enter the market in 4yrs where you might make even more? IMO, if the Mets try to lower their offer, Boras should be BANGING on the Twins door to get their offer DONE! *Caveat, he still has to pass a physical. But he already did when the Twins gave him the initial 3yr and $105M deal. Has anything really changed since then?