DocBauer

One of the biggest "tragedies" in Twins history is Mauer being forced to move from behind the plate. Even then, he turned himself in to a great 1B who could still hit and get OB. I still believe he was miscast as a hitter, especially in his later years, as a #3 hitter and should have been hitting #1 or #2 in the lineup as a table setter. But I digress. I was too young to ever watch or appreciate Earl Battey as the Twins catcher when the franchise moved to Minnesota. I was a young fan at 5yo listening to my dad and his transistor radio, but when I became a true FAN, was in the mid 70's with Butch Wynegar as the Twins #1 guy. For decades the catcher spot was a game calling, catch and throw position. And if you had one who could hit and provide offense and power, you really had something! But there were so few Bench and Fisk and Carter type players in the league. But then something happened around the late 90's and the start of the new millennium...much like SS...where there was an influx of quality catchers who could do it all. And Mauer was one of the very best EVER, even if his career behind the plate was cut short. He did things no other catcher ever did in the grand history of baseball. Even as a homer, he's a HOF'er in my book. But it sure seems to me the Twins have been pretty blessed with quality catchers in their history. Wynegar was very good and had flashes offensively. The Twins won 2 WS with Laudner and Harper at catcher. Two completely different players, but each filled their role very well. And we have joked many times about Sal and Drew Butera and Redmond, but they filled a role over the years behind the Twins "starting" catcher. AJ was a fine catcher who was traded away to make room for Mauer. So a lot of great catching before and with Mauer. Agreed it's been a little disjointed since then, but not poor. Suzuki was a fine catcher for a few years and so was Castro, as Garver transitioned to taking over the top spot. All 3 of these guys were fine catchers, not studs, who provided what was needed behind the plate, and produced different levels of offense from year to year. Honestly, just good game calling and defense, with solid offense, I can't think of a season for the past 6 or 7 years where the Twins didn't have a "solid", if not good, catching situation. Garver FLASHED BIG TIME, and then regressed. Love the guy, but the Twins made the right move at the right time. I've been disappointed in the FO to not address the catcher position more aggressively than they have. They've taken shots with Banuelos and Carmago. They've drafted 5 or 6 catchers in the last couple of drafts to work with and develop. But they are all 2-3yrs away from proving any long term answer. That leaves Jeffers and someone to add to fill the roster with a quality secondary option. Jeffers, and I know he was a college player, had 2yrs of milb and a little over 600AB in the minors split over rookie/A/AA ball before he was promoted from the taxi squad in 2020. I never bought in to the hype in 2021 that he and Garver were amongst the best tandem in MLB. Again. 2yrs and 600AB in milb before his promotion. He NEVER had a catching coach in college, taught himself, and finally got real defensive coaching once he was a pro. I was asked recently in a different thread why I believe Jeffers is a good defensive catcher. I could point to a 2.2FWAR, OR the recent TD defensive article from SABR SDI rankings that have him at 2.0, but didn't qualify due to games played. And while I don't subscribe to a site that allows me defensive details, I'd bet his team ERA while catching is better than most alternatives. Or I could just say I don't always understand all of these metrics but have watched him play these past 2 1/2 years and been impressed from what I've seen, and he's usually been the catcher when, win or lose, the team allowed just 3 or less runs. (I really wish someone had the team ERA numbers). I KNOW his throwing numbers aren't great. But is that really the most important thing vs calling a game and having the confidence of the staff? We call all agree to disagree. And that's OK. I like what I've seen from Jeffers behind the plate, but see potential improvement. I like a 25yo backstop with power who has hit in college, milb, teased at the ML level, and has only about 530AB at the ML level thus far, and was on an upward trend in 2022 before his broken thumb. I ask again, honestly, with his still limited AB, if Jeffers had been healthy and finished 2022 with a .245 AVG and 14 HR, would we be having conversations about how he needs to be replaced? I just don't think we've seen the best of him yet. I am fully on bord trusting improvement/reaching, or starting to reach his potential in 2023. I want a solid co-catcher to complete the lineup. There are larger holes to fill AFTER a co-catcher is brought on board. If 2023 turns out badly, then I'm all in for looking for a different option.

This is not the blueprint I put together simply because I felt I had to create one that didn't include Correa. But if I could do one that I WANT to have happen, this would come pretty darn close. (I may feel compelled to do another one). A couple notes: 1] I like the Mancini signing and hadn't thought about him. I went $10M for Haniger, but I like the Mancini idea as well, and at a lower cost. Very interesting. 2] IMO, and blueprint, I cheated and kept Ober in a 6 man rotation as I'm playing devil's advocate and expecting someone to be hurt or dinged at any one time. To me, you place Moran in to his BP slot. And I'd place a healthy Winder in the pen over either Sands or Megill. After that, it's open competition for someone to join Winder, which changes if the Twins can squeeze another $5-6M in somewhere to bring back Fulmer, or someone comparable. (Leaning to brining Hand back home to Minnesota). 3] PAYROLL is hard to speculate, but agree it needs to bump, and I suspect it will. I've been using a flat $140M with a fair 5% bump that should just be an "average" expected bump. That allows $147M. That gives the Twins approximately $52M to spend. Making some aggressive as well as smart moves to re-tool means saying goodbye to Urshela and Kepler in trades. That's another $18M to spend, or a total of $70M total. Sounds crazy, right? a] IF Correa is a full $35M per, and Rodon signs for a Gausman/Ray deal, that accounts for $58M. That leaves $12M, in this potential scenario, for a 2nd catcher, a RH bat, and one more quality BP arm. That's cutting things really close/fine. But Mancini, Narvaez and Fulmer back is only a small squeeze to hit $150M, which should place them about the middle of MLB ranking somewhere around 14th-16th place in total payroll. b] In regard to the listed payroll, Dobnak's $1.5M counts toward 2023, (And he might still turn out to be helpful, if fully recovered), as does the $3M for Paddack. But the other $4.5M you listed counts backward to 2022. So there is another $4.5M, in this scenario, that can be added towards another addition. Perhaps a little more if Correa isn't front loaded.

Me or auto correct I have no idea! LOL Of course I meant Sanchez. Thank you for catching that.

FWIW, a "rumor" ...and I despise using that term...had the Twins going "going backward" in their design. WTH does that mean? Sloppy wool jerseys from the 1900's? LOL Personally, I like the updated powder blues and I don't think they are going away. But I don't like the red tops and am abilivent on the blue tops. I'm expecting the return of pin stripes and a cream colored alternate option. Retro is not bad, is classic, and can be even better with a few subtle changes.

I'm sorry gang, and I'm not trying to be dismissive of personal opinion or be mean, but what are you asking or looking for? There is a dearth of "outstanding" catchers in MLB who can provide quality defense and great offense. AJ and Mauer aren't walking through the door any time soon. Sanchez, one of the worst catchers defensively in MLB actually improved with the Twins, while seeing his bat continue to decline. But he's a better option than Jeffers, as some have stated? Jeffers calls a good game. Once again, when given the primary spot to begin 2022, before all hell broke loose about July, he caught/called something like 12 of 16 games where the Twins only allowed 3 or fewer runs. Say what you want to about passed balls...they happen...but his fielding % is .995 for his young career so far. And I know there are different metrics for anything you want, but that's from Baseball Reference. So take it as you will. But I don't see any major defensive discrepancy to say he doesn't play solid defense. He doesn't throw well enough? You have an argument. His 22% in 2021 was 3% less than average, so, solid. His 18% in 2022 was not good. Is that him? Pitchers not holding runners? Hard to say. The Twins are focused on the batter and less on the runner on 1B. That's documented in their approach. Also part of the reason being they are looking for the low strike, having their catchers squat lower with the leg "kick out" approach made famous a couple decades ago by Pena. As an aside, it does help keep the catcher's legs healthier for the season, as well as at the plate. So let's pause for a moment to talk about quality hitting vs good game calling and quality defense vs questionable throwing. Jeffers OPS+ is right on with ML average for the position in 2022. So if you can accept good game calling, and solid defense, average batting should make him a decent, quality catcher overall. When you take a step back and remember he's only 25yo and has 591 actual plate appearances at the ML level and has produced average results despite hitting in college and in the minors, how in hell can't you be excited about his potential to hit at the ML level with just a little more time and opportunity? He was drafted as an offense first backstop who has turned in to a solid, quality backstop who had ZERO catching coaching until he turned pro. His offense is still developing after being somewhat rushed from AA in 2020. After 591 PA TOTAL he's an offensive bust despite power and flashes and being league average offensively? Some of the wisest words Tom Kelly ever said was no hitter ever reaches their ability until they have approximately 1500 ML AB. And I'm paraphrasing somewhat. I want to see a better arm and a better release from Jeffers behind the plate. I don't expect miracles, just better than last year. But I have no problem with his game calling or overall defense. I've watched him and he's good. But I also want him to grow as a batter and reach his ceiling, or close to it. I think he can. I wonder, if his thumb didn't get broke just as he was hitting hot in 2022, and he finished hitting .230-240 with the same 14HR he had in 2021 are we still talking about how he needs to be replaced? None of my opinion is going to replace the opinions of others. I get that and it's OK. I'm also looking for more from Jeffers in 2023. And I'm looking for a solid co-catcher compliment yet again. I'm a believer, still looking for more, but really surprised by the negativity for a pretty good player.

Just wondering, is that "T" really gold? (light gold) Or is it maybe off white as a hat to be worn with some cream uniforms? Really looks more cream than gold to me. But who knows with that lighting. Could be just a single snapshot of a single proposed hat of many that will be offered in 2023.

It sure looks like the Twins have been looking for more speed and using it more in the minors. For the most part, their affiliates rank in the middle of their respective level. That indicates, IMO, a willingness to adopt a SB strategy without selling out toward that strategy. I think that's wise. Limiting pitchers ability to throw to 1B might have a greater impact on SB league wide rather than the larger bases. I get that a SB attempt is often a bang-bang type of play. But we're only talking a total of 3" less between the bases. And then, the covering infielder is is 1 1/2" closer to tag the runner, we're talking about a very small difference overall. I'm not convinced yet that the larger bases are going to have a profound affect.

Sorry, but have to echo comments about Jet Blue vs Hammond. Really? Medina is years away. I'm not dismissing him, but he tops out at high A CR this year if it starts to come together. He's just not on my radar right now. Cruz is one of those guys who is "older" at 23 who has amazing stuff and really didn't deserve to be promoted to AA for 2022. But STUFF...and I'm guessing a solid Instructional League...got him to Wichita for 2022. And I applaud that move! Pure arm talent rivals Duran and Alcala. The rest of his results do not. But a repeat of AA MIGHT have him finding control finally. He's a 2nd half of the year candidate for AAA, with a possible ETA of 2024. Now, in Raya, we might have something! I didn't like the 2020 draft and still don't. But I liked Raya. From day one I felt they found another "Berrios-like" pitcher with stuff and attitude on the mound. He's so young, barely thrown in 2yrs, and had himself a really good 2022. The IL will tell a lot, but I wouldn't be shocked if he he jumped to CR. And I wouldn't be disappointed if he started at Ft Myers and jumped quickly to CR. I just think this kid is going to surprise people really soon. Why was Festa not part of the article? Because he flashed enough? I would have placed him ahead of Medina. And if you really want to look at a potential breakout candidate, look at late round 2021 pick Jaylen Nowlin, a LHP who is WAY under the radar right now. ONE awful 2021 appearance. And then a promotion to A and A÷. 14K per 9. 1.40 WHIP, .230 AVG. Jumped to A and A÷. M ight be a RP eventually, but he's higher on my list than other. He's a sneaky good prospect that deserves mention and following.

I do think it's possible, at times, to have a team just prone to injury. It usually happens to an older, more veteran team, OR, a team that drafts, signs, trades for players with an injury history hoping to not have a repeat. But even then, mass injuries are just impossible to predict. In Minnesota professional history, I always think about the Vikings Robert Smith. He was an explosive, supremely talented athlete who couldn't stay healthy his first couple of years. And while I'm sure he worked hard to build his body up to endure the pounding of the NFL, he got some great advice from Tony Dorsett, which was, the team needed him all year, not just a partial year, and it was OK to drop down, or run out of bounds once in a while, and don't always look for contact or fight for the extra yard every play. And while that advice may have not been the sole reason he suddenly found better health, he did find it. And he became a better player, an All Pro, and became one of the greatest RB in Vikings history until he retired early to preserve his health and pursue other ventures. I use that as a reference to further state you just don't always know why and how injuries happen. They are unpredictable. And trying to avoid them might be anything from not playing through them all the time, to changing how you approach conditioning. I don't believe the Twins hired Salazar a couple years ago believing he was in any way incompetent. In fact, they've been pretty strong in brining in various coaches and support staff from a variety of places. But the number of soft tissue injuries has really bothered me. I've even half joked before how former Twin Nick Punto credited pillates as a major reason for health and improvement, and maybe the rest of the team should do the same. I do believe the lockout had an adverse affect on a lot of ballplayers this year. And a couple recent things I've heard has me convinced of that. Buxton's family had a big bout of covid in the offseason, and he was unable to contact the Twins training staff in regard to treatment and medicine to treat. Now, Buxton's unfortunate knee injury, and the hip that bothered him while compensating, has nothing to do with that. But it indicates how EVERYONE across MLB was simply allowed ZERO support from the training staff in any way. So how do you advise or monitor your players in the offseason? And while not trying to throw any shade whatsoever towards Mahle and what he may have done to prepare for 2022, he has stated that he may have thrown too hard, and too long to begin the season and developed his "tired arm" as a result. As a reminder, multiple doctor exams and MRI's have shown no injury. But what really bothers me is reports that he wasn't on any kind of shoulder strengthening program. Is that on the Reds, the Twins, or both? Could this have affected Winder and Balazovic as well, getting ready for 2022? Right or wrong in blame to change things up, I applaud going out of the system to find a different voice and a different approach. The one thing I'm curious about is the head trainer, and his staff, is only part of the equation. Every professional sports team also has a strength/conditioning coach and staff that work with the trainer and his staff. Have the Twins missed the boat on the S/C side of things? Does this need to be re-visted?

Do the Twins NEED a LH catcher to split duties up with a platoon advantage? No. Would they like one? I believe so. While a general sharing of duties and good defense and game calling is most important, having a split platoon does allow for better matchups. Once again, I am of the opinion Jeffers is solid to good defensively with room to grow. I like the offensive potential and see a better floor than he's shown with a pretty nice ceiling if he "figures it out". And remember, he's only got about 550 ML AB thus far. Narvaez and Barnhart are experienced and have solid reputations. While neither is a hitting stud, and both are coming off poor 2022 seasons, each also had solid 2021 seasons where they basically hit their career stat lines. So both are just a single season removed from a solid hitting line. But Narvaez is 1yr younger, and has a little better overall quad slash line for his career. IMO, the FO should have already been on the phone with Narvaez's agent stating they want to offer a 2yr $12M deal as soon as the market opens. Don't wait around. Get the deal done, and then move on to other pressing matters. And FWIW, I would also be trying to bring back Leon on a split contract milb deal similar to what they did with Cave last year. Give him a high $ AAA deal that pays a solid, fair ML salary for when/if he's up with the Twins. I'd love to have him working with our young pitchers at St Paul and have him as insurance. Our best catching prospects are anywhere from 1-3yrs away.

I just wanted to add a little but to this. Jeffers had 55 AB's in the brief 2020 season. I think the numbers he posted, at least, show some of his potential, even with a down 2021 and 2022. With the short 2020 season and missed time this past year with his broken thumb, he's still accumulated only 591 PA and 534 AB. He's got power and while he's been streaky the past 2 years, the power is legitimate and he's shown flashes. He was actually on a nice upward trend when he got hurt last year. He's hit everywhere previously, is still only 25yo, and I think there's some untapped potential just waiting for greater consistency. Defensively, I'd like to see either his accuracy or release get better to help control the run game for sure. But his 22% CS in 2021 was only slightly below league average in 2021, though he dipped in 2022. How much of that was him vs the staff not holding runners I don't know. But, while I just can't recall the exact numbers, through the first couple of months last year, before things started to slide, the Twins had something like 16 games where they allowed 3 or fewer runs and he was behind the plate for like a dozen of those. Throwing out runners, preventing passed balls, are important and I'd like to see improvement there. But he's not awful by any means. But I've always maintained that a catcher's primary function is to call a good game, set a good target, and just "handle" the staff and imbue confidence in/for them. And that's why I think the Twins like him, in addition to some untapped offensive potential. I get why some look at the offensive numbers the past 2 years, (though I believe his 86OPS+ in 2022 was about league average for catchers), see a few passed balls and lack of a cannon of an arm, and want better. And nothing I'm going to say, or was written above by jmlease1, is going to directly change those opinions at this time. And that's fine. But I also remember a time when Garver was just "never going to be a regular catcher" and that turned out pretty good after a time. I want more, and frankly, I'm expecting more. And I think Jeffers does the important stuff pretty well. And I'm absolutely giving him all of 2023 to show what he can potentially do. But I DO want a good partner to pair him with. And I repeat, I think Narvaez, Barnhart as a second choice, are quality, experienced backstops with solid bats, despite each having a down 2022, who fit as great co-catcher options. I think it would be a huge mistake for the FO to sit around and wait for one to fall in their lap and hope. Be aggressive and go get the one you like and MAKE IT HAPPEN. This is too important a position to ignore and then hope. I think Contreras is an excellent ballplayer. And I would circle back to him quickly if some things don't fall in to place. The Twins need at least 1, if not 2, quality RH bats for the lineup. One should be an OF. The other COULD BE at SS depending on how serious the FO, and ownership, are about a fair and real deal for Correa, etc. But even then, they could jump on Bell as a 1B/DH with Miranda taking over 3B. IMO, Contreras would be great. But why not a quality partner to team with Jeffers to stabilize and improve at catcher and look for RH bats who could/would/should play on a more daily basis to improve the lineup?

Narvaez at $6M is my #1 choice to work with Jeffers. Barndhart is my #2. Both have good reputations as backstops and can hit a little and display some pop/power. Both are LH batters. Both are coming off down seasons and should be good players at good prices. I'm more worried about a quality RH OF, at least 1 BP arm, and figuring out the SS situation right now.

I think his September and AFl are indicators that his trajectory is trending upward, even with questions about his defense. If your offense is good enough, they will find a spot/role for you. I think his role is going to be every day player at 4 or 5 positions. Not saying he can't/won't be a "starter", just thinking he could be super valuable and successful playing all over on a daily basis. But his value is a little low right now based on a mediocre 2021 and less than ideal start to 2022. And farmerguychris echoes something I've been saying for a couple weeks now: time to spend some $ and quit trading away prospects.

OR, instead of trading even more prospects for either one of the 30 and 30yo+ veterans on 1yr deals they could KEEP their prospects and spend the same $ or a little more in FA. Rodon and Bassitt would look outstanding in the Twins rotation without losing any additional prospects. Remember a year ago when Manea was considered one of the top available trade options? Well, after a down year he's available without having to trade for him. And there are a handful of similar arms out there that could be solid options in the "Gray or Mahle" quality range it would be nice to plug in if depth is the answer.

What's so frustrating is the FO has $50M to spend, and maybe more depending on the futures of Kepler and Urshela. Gausman and Ray each received deals last offseason for 5yrs and about $105-110M total. (Pretty sure I have those numbers right.) Rodon is approximately the same age, has just as good of stuff, can be a difference maker, and should cost relatively the same. We aren't talking an 8yr and $200M plus. Does anyone really think 5yrs and $100-ish M is going to destroy future Twins payrolls? Risk? Yes. But tell me any SP you could trade for or sign and GUARANTEE me he's not going to have an injury at some point? Right now, with a little additional roster maneuvering and guys, the Twibs could sign/re-sign a TOP SS, (hint hint), sign Rodon, and still have a few $M left over for a co-catcher, BP arm and maybe a RH OF. As I said in another similar OP, the books are very clean and at least a little additional $ comes off next year. So if not NOW, then WHEN?

Agree with you about 90%. But with no slight to Maeda or Ryan, I'm not sure a 100% Ober might not be our 3rd best starter right now.

I was impressed by Winder early last year in both roles, even if his K numbers were lower than hoped for. And then he had the shoulder issue and just wasn't the same pitcher the rest of the year. And from what I've read, his FB was the pitch hit hardest and most often last year. But is that skewed by his second half? Because again, I liked what I saw to begin the year. I'd be tempted to put Winder #1 on the list if he's 100% and ready to go. But for now, I think I'm going to go with Varland in the top spot. I think I agree that SWR might have the better career and greater impact, but will be behind Varland to begin with. FWIW, if one of these guys end up being a really good middle/long swing man, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

I like this idea, in theory. Actually makes a ton of sense and it's possible the Brewers might want to re-tool at this time. And while the Twins system is...depending on your perspective...a little short on pitching prospects or recovering from some bad/injured seasons, they have at least a couple arms the Brewers would probably like as well as some very interesting INF and OF options. And my opinion is, and has been, that the FO should treat the staff just EXPECTING that someone is going to be hurt or not ready. So I think an addition makes sense from a depth perspective. (And I like the look of the guys we have now, all 100%) But I'm tired of trading away prospects for veterans. Woodruff might just make a difference. So I'm not saying no. But how about spending some $ for a change and NOT trading away more prospects? Rodon for 4-5yrs at $25 per is simply not going to destroy the financial structure of the franchise in any way. Bassitt would come a little shorter and cheaper, probably wouldn't be as good as Rodon, but would still be quality and give us that depth.

Lewis, Martin, Lee, and Julien are very talented prospects who display everything we want and need. And all of them could be a part of 2023, or 2024. But none of them have arrived YET! So we want to debate trading away one of the best players on the entire roster for a maybe to open up another hole in the lineup? There is no way I would trade away one of the best hitters in my lineup, one of the better 2B in all of MLB, in favor of trusting prospects or bench pieces to fill his role unless I got something tremendous back. Arraez is a competent 2B. So is Gordon. But they aren't Polanco. With a little work, Julien just might be a Polanco replacement. But he's not there yet, despite great promise. Just now way I'm trading away one of the very best players on my team until someone proves he's ready to replace him.

I don't know what the FO has in mind, much less what they'll actually do. But as I've stated before, we have pretty clean books right now, and just as clean the following year unless we re-sign some guys to extensions: Gray, Mahle, as examples. If the time isn't right now, when will it be? Rodon, as an example, is probably $25M for 4 or 5 years. There is some risk to be sure, but that's not a $200M plus deal to decimate any franchise. IMO, though I like the rotation on paper and the young guys who have reached the ML level, and a couple who have had a cup of coffee so far, there are enough question marks that I just EXPECT someone to be hurt or not ready, etc. And yes, they might dip in to the secondary pool, which offers a handful of interesting options, and go depth vs big move. And that depth piece might be important and pretty good. But the team and payroll are set up to make one, good, fairly expensive deal that could pay dividends without having adverse affect in the future. The timing is good if they want to make a move like this.

OR. the Twins could do this and bump the payroll a simple 5% and have enough to add a solid catcher and pen arm. With those additions you just about have my dream team for 2023. But I didn't do this for my blueprint idea as I just thought no way we make a pair of big moves like this. But I would love it.

A good post! If I interpret your post correctly, like me, you aren't sure about jettisoning Kepler at this point? To me, he's worth keeping for his defense and league average production while hitting lower in the lineup. They need a RH hitter who is not the "not quite ready" Celestino for an important part of the lineup. I think, when we talk about risks, we have to talk about calculated risks. I'm still very confused and conflicted about the Rogers trade. I wanted to keep him and add another quality RH RP to allow Rogers to just fill his role. Instead, they ended up with TWO holes in the pen with the flier on Paddack being healthy. Obviously it didn't turn out well. But after Rogers was pushed in to a role in which he shouldn't have been placed, he imploded. And Paddack imploded. And do we have to yet again rehash how the FO just falls in love with players? Ugh! I would have literally taken ANY other pitcher than Pagan against Cleveland at one point. As would we all at some point. BUT, can you imagine a still young, and health Paddack in 2024 looking really good and everyone screaming to re-sign him? May not happen, but I could see it. Risk? Maeda had some risk, but he was amazing in 2020 with some tweaks. He looked DOMINATE in ST 2021 before his arm gave out when the season started. Would we give up that amazing 2020? Mahle looked normal, went on the IL, looked fine, was acquired, looked fine, and then he didn't. He has no chronic history. He looked good when gotten. Then all hell broke loose. Doctor exams and 2 MRI's say nothing is wrong. Mahle says he's fine, feels good, and just had a tired arm because he didn't have time to ramp up correctly and over extended himself early. Is he right? Did the FO take a risk? Maybe so. And MAYBE Gray is in a similar situation due to his hamstring bothering him so much in 2022. I do believe the FO DOES take chanes here and there. But as a mid-market team, you have to at times, don't you? But man, with a normal offseason and some mean included, you have to wonder/speculate what those "chances" might produce with a healthy Gray and Mahle taking their normal turn in the rotation. Either or both could be extension candidates, especially Mahle. And again, what IF Paddack looks good in 2024? I get taking chances doesn't always work. But sometimes it does. Maeda in 2020. And sometimes it pays off later. But smart chances are what you have to try at times. Pineda is an example. Paid to do nothing for a year and then provided positive results. The FO has to do better, and be RIGHT! But sometimes risk DOES pay off and I agree they aren't afraid to take chances. BUT, there is a difference in risk. When your books are mostly clean now and near future, with talent on hand, you need to take the risk factor up another notch.

I really like most everything here. Really well thought out! I do think you're too high $ on Bassitt, who I like as a "settle" SP instead of Rodon. I would pencil Larnach in RF and leave Kirilloff out of any plans, as of now, and maybe move Merrifield to LF. (Less territory for Larnach to cover and he has a great arm). I think half of MLB would have loved to have Merrifield on their team over the past several years. Always loved the way he plays ball. Would Toronto want to give him up? How much would it cost to get him? Always thought he was a perfect fit for the Twins. You have a very good plan in place!

If the intent is to add as good as Gray, and I'd include a healthy Male, there are some FA out there that I like as possible options at least close if not as good for, what I would expect, in the $14-18M per range. Bassitt, Tallon, Wacha, Walker, Eovaldi are just a handful of names at 30yo plus that could provide solid, mid-rotation production and reliability. Quintana saw a huge resurgence in 2022 and could be very interesting on a short deal considering his career and his 2022. None are top of the rotation arms, but all have the ability to challenge for the #3 spot and throw better than that at times. And while many, if not all, have some question marks, they all offer a lot more potential than Bundy or Archer. I am NOT opposed to making a trade. Not in the least. Even with moving a lot of milb talent last year, the Twins system is NOT decimated. While not all are rookies any longer, Larnach, Kirilloff, Celestino, Ryan, Ober, Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Duran, Jax, Moran, Wallner, Lewis, Martin, and Julien are a collection of arms and position players who are all generally young and have either reached the ML level or are very close and should be part of AAA in 2023. And there are a few other "interesting" guys I'm forgetting or leaving out for the moment. And not everyone is going to reach their potential or make a difference. But the "problem" in the system is that so many are at the highest level, or very close, and then there is a major drop off...with a few exceptions...until we get to A and rookie ball. Prospects are there to build your team and to also be traded to build your team. But unless there is just a really smart deal to be had whereby we can acquire a really quality arm that doesn't "rob" the ML roster or "decimate" the system, I'm just tired of trading away young talent right now. So again, I'm OK with a trade if there's a really good deal that makes sense. Maybe it would be a pair of deals where we get said SP and trade someone else for a couple prospects. Maybe a 3-way trade. But, IMO, Rodon is the almost perfect addition to be added via $, and dispense with the whole trade idea. He will still only be 30yo in 2023. He's coming off a pair of quality back to back seasons. Being LH sure doesn't hurt. There ARE injury risks associated with him. I get that. But he's a risk worth taking, IMO. He's not the proverbial ACE SP, but so few are, and they're not usually available. Verlander, DeGrom and even Nola, aren't coming here for 2023. And while you/we can argue at length about the Twins and modern baseball throwing pitchers only 5-6 IP per start, the Twins are good at "managing" IP for their starters. A quality BP that has some middle relievers is paramount, but I think they are very close to having a really nice 2023 pen with depth and versatility with what they have at their disposal, while adding at least one more reliable, proven arm. And when you are a mid-market team, some proverbial ACE doesn't just drop in to your lap very often the way Correa did. Or the way Morris did back in the day. You need to build the pen, have depth everywhere on your staff, and TAKE A CHANCE. Rodon IS that chance. The Twins wanted him for 2022, but the Giants got him. The Twins called the Giants in case they were in "sell" mode because they wanted him again. He's the perfect choice, even with risk, as the books are mostly clean, and will be again in 2024, even with an extension or maybe two. Give Rodon 3 or 4yrs at $25M and make it happen. The payroll can afford it, he fits a need, he can make a difference, and even at 26-28GS and 160 IP, and no more, he can make said difference. The risk/reward quotient, to me, just leans heavily towards the reward side.

There are a lot of ways to build a lineup. And while it would be great to have an All Star type candidate at every position, it's just about impossible to have that. If Correa is not a re-sign, then a new reality applies to the 2023 Twins; "how best to spend $50M to make this the best team possible, and who plays SS next year?" If the Twins truly believe in Lewis....to a lesser degree probably both Martin and Lee...then a stop-gap of some quality makes sense. And there are a few to choose from, with Iglesias being amongst them. Andrus would also apply as a solid option. The aforementioned IKF would also be a quality candidate, if made available cheaply or simply released. For the short term, the offense would be obviously lacking much punch from the SS position. But the Twins offense would not be decimated in any way with a 100-120 game Buxton and a healthy Miranda, Arraez, Polanco, Larnach, Kepler with a RH OF option, Jeffers and a good partner, Kirilloff, Wallner, etc, etc. Plenty of potential for a non difference making SS in the batter's box for a half year or so with the lineup a healthy clubhouse should provide. Just no butcher with the glove or sub .200 hitter please!