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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Don't want him on the Twins in any way, shape, or form. Not everyone has to be a saint, but I do think it's OK to just avoid someone who seems to be a lot of trouble. Never really cared for the guy. Always hoped we weren't somehow, distantly, related.
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The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yes, the Twins still need at least some pitching. To repeat a boring but accurate mantra; the Twins have the best available pitching depth they've had in years, rotation and pen, if they are healthy. You can view this in 2 very distinct ways: 1] The Twins don't have a true #1, so their rotation is mediocre at best. And if you're betting on better health, your a fool as there are too many questions right now to place that bet. And the depth is young and unproven. The pen lacks a true closer, still has Pagan, and middle relief is still a question, 2] Virtually EVERY ML team has injury questions regarding their staff, more so their rotation, usually. Lacking some kind of ACE or PROVEN #1 is also something most teams struggle with. For the first time in a couple of years we will have an actual, normal ramp up to the season. This means pitchers will actually have team personnel working with the pitchers even before ST starts. (Mahle in particular spoke about this previously). Could a normal ramp up and a normal ST make a big difference for Gray and Mahle to not have hamstring issues and a tired arm by mid season? Could Ober, and his new-found mechanics in 2021 keep him, at least mostly, healthy for a year now that things are normal in 2023? Can Maeda continue to build himself up, even with a few off days here and there during the season, be relied on? How about a healthy Alcala building on what he did to finish 2021 and his start to 2022 before injury? How about 5 guys in the rotation that are all #2-#3 and at worst a solid #4 with a solid pen? The #2 option is not longer by design. It's just a fact that naysaying is easier and thus shorter to extrapolate than the positive aspects. I just don't want to trade any more talent in the system, or off the ML roster, to add Lopez, or similar. But I'm not paid to make these decisions. And frankly, I'm not knowledgeable enough to know/understand if the Twins got a STEAL by doing so. But I do object to continuing to trade away talent for 1 or 2yr options on a pitcher and depleting the system when some of those "unproven" arms might be really good in a year or two. At some point, you have to trust in what you have and let them learn, and grow, and shine. If you could tell me for certain that Eovaldi would be healthy enough for 25-28 GS for 3yrs at $18-20M per, I'd jump on that, monitor his IP, and make sure he was fresh for the playoffs because he CAN be a difference maker. He's as good, or slightly better, than what the Twins have now. But I'd better have the 6-8 SP that it APPEARS the Twins might have. I trust in the potential of Alcala and Moran. I trust in the group of Winder, Sands, Henriquez, Varland, SWR, and others to provide rotation depth and middle relief as bridge options to the back end of the pen. I still don't trust Pagan in any way, shape, or form and still think he's a huge mistake to keep around. But other than a POTENTIAL deal with Eovaldi, once again, there's nothing left on the FA market that could make any kind of difference. And there is ZERO sustainability as a franchise if you keep trading away the future. I'd trust in what we have, talent and better health, use the young depth, and add a couple quality bullpen arms still available, and build my STAFF that way. Drop or trade Pagan for a bag of balls. Sheesh! I just can't believe we're still talking about him! Add a Rogers or Hand from the LH side. Add Fulmer or similar and make Moran and others earn their spot. At some point, you will have to promote due to injuries and the such. But why not make your pen as deep as you can to comment a solid but not great starting staff?- 70 replies
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- nathan eovaldi
- jacob degrom
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5 Former Twins on the Trade Block
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You could do worse than IKF at SS and allow Farmer to be a super utility guy, but why trade for him instead of a possible 1yr deal for a similar player in Iglesias? For that matter, how about a 1yr deal with an option and $1M buyout on an Andrus gamble that the return of his bat in 2022 wasn't a 1 shot deal? I don't think I see a fit. Escobar still has value as a utility player and solid bat with some power. But he'd have to come cheap otherwise, roll with what you have I guess. Are there FA options at utility that are worth anything? I'd have to go looking at the list of available again, but not sure there's much left there of interest. Everything else is a no. Looks like Garlick is going to be our RH role playing OF after Myers was signed to a cheap deal. Ugh!- 26 replies
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- liam hendriks
- eduardo escobar
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As I stated previously, I never expect3d Correa back. But I fooled myself in to thinking there was a real chance for a while this offseason. But I just don't understand how any of this was handled. 1] Apparently, the FO really and truly believed anyone else interested was in the $290-300M range so they were right in it. And maybe they were right initially. But when it became obvious it was going to have to be an offer at $300M plus, they had the option to walk away or stay in. 2] The 3yr deal they gave to Correa was real. If he didn't opt out for any reason, he got another $35M in 2023. Same for 2024. So if they were willing to pay him $35M per year initially, then why not in the new offer? Or front load the first few years while payroll is so flexible? 3] We'll probably never know what happened at midnight and if the Twins were even kept in the loop or not. But if Correa really wanted to stay, and the FO had actually offered him 10yrs and $300-310-ish, he might be a Twin right now. But then again, the Mets could have just gone $330 or more...since they seem to be printing $ these days...and blown the Twins out of the water as the Giants did. None of this makes any sense and that's my biggest issue.
- 78 replies
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- carlos correa
- kyle farmer
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The reality is he played mostly 3B and 2B in college but is a great athlete so the Jays decided they should try him at SS. And the Twins have carried on this idea. And it's not a stupid idea. He's a wonderful athlete with at least a decent arm. It's sort of the reverse draft idea where you draft and sign a bunch of SS knowing most will transition to a different spot eventually, with some turning out to be solid utility players. I've always stated that if there is any chance a prospect could play SS, you play them there as long as you can in hope they just might STICK. And let's be honest, except for some truly GREAT glove SS, most still struggle a little at the ML level initially. So I wouldn't abandon Martin still being a SS. But this kid has been behind the 8 ball since drafted. He's drafted, sits out a whole year, then goes straight to AA and is asked to play a different position. I'm encouraged by Martin after his AFL performance not because it's a mostly hitter friendly league, but because he continued his upward trend in the last month or so what he did in AA, reportedly healthy again. He can play 3B a d 2B. The Twins have stated he's a "natural" in the OF. But at some point, despite all of his athleticism, you have to come to the conclusion he's just not a starting ML SS. And that's OK. I've compared him many times to Alex Gordon of the Royals. He was a top 3B prospect who just didn't turn out to be the 3B that they thought he would be, for whatever reason. And I would never say DON'T continue to play him at SS as he could be a viable backup there, but at some point you have to be smart enough as an organization to realize what you have. Martin is a LF/CF, top of the order hitter who can cover 3B/2B and be an emergency SS. Deal with it and watch him explode as a hitter and producer, potentially. I hate to compare greatness with a prospect, but Lee is a Ripken, Correa type of SS. Great intelligence, instinct, hands and arm. He could just settle in at SS and never look back. But I think we agree that Lewis has the ability to be a quality SS. And he doesn't have to be great. And who knows, very good to great only happens with time. I don't know if Lewis is ready June or July. I think the Twins will be somewhat guarded. But he's their guy moving forward. My thought is, for the immediate future, maybe they should grab an Iglesias or Andrus short term to allow Farmer to be a solid super-utility option.
- 27 replies
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- jorge polanco
- carlos correa
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Interesting and a bit sad when you look at the history...especially recent history...of the Twins that they have had so few SS that were truly great/very good players. When I was a kid growing up and learning baseball and falling in love with the Twins, Smalley was the SS. And he was pretty damn good. The next really good SS was Gagne, who never won ANYTHING, but was damn good with the glove and OK with the bat. Heck, even Pat Mears was pretty good for a few years, as was Guzman. Since then it's been poor production, glove only, promising but traded away, etc. I am in the camp that wanted Correa because he would change all of that. I think, despite probably retiring with enough $ to make his great grandkids rich, he's so damn smart he could make a fine manager one day if he wanted to stay in the game. But, alas.... Unless something with Lewis is just "wrong" or chronic with his knee going forward, I believe he's our SS at some point in 2023 and going forward. Maybe I'm just a super optimist, but I believe in him 100%. My wanting Correa back wasn't about a disbelief in Lewis, but to add someone special to the organization and let Lewis be great somewhere else, probably 2B, allowing Lee to play 3B, Miranda sharing 1B and 3B and DH, etc. I've seen enough of Lewis at SS in milb highlights, ST games, and his brief 2022 at the ML level to know he can handle the position. Can he become a Gold Glover at SS one day? Who knows? That's like trying to predict a top pitching prospect to challenge for or win a Cy Young. With his bat potential, do we care if he's GG worthy? Who knows, with time he might be. But how about just really good defense, making all the normal plays, a few great ones, and let him learn and develop and see how good he might be? Reminder, he's an amazing athlete who lost nothing athletically after his last surgery. This latest setback was only a partial tear with the new re-inforcement techniques being used. IMO, he's going to be fine. And even if he loses a half step of elite speed and quickness, he's still got plenty left.
- 27 replies
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- jorge polanco
- carlos correa
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I believe the answer is yes. Technically, Correa is still a FA. Nothing is actually signed yet, there is only an agreement in place. IF the delay was brought about due to something questionable physical and not just the insurance company wanting another look or more details...ankle, back, neck, heart question, etc...the Giants and Correa would then have the option of re-working the agreement. So, in theory, the Giants might say 10-11 years and $300M. He and Boras could call up the Twins and see what they think. THEN, it would be up to the Twins, or any team for that matter, to look at the findings and decide what they'd be IN for. Again, just in theory, the Twins could feel the risk is worth the reward and say their offer is on the table, OR, even offer a bump. Similar, but not quite exact, think about Rocker and the Mets. He was selected, a contract was agreed on, but there was a physical question there as well. The Mets offered a lower deal and Rocker decided not to sign. The obvious difference is Rocker wasn't a FA, and Correa is. More than likely, this will only be a mild issue that the Giants want to look at again, and he will be cleared and signed. Still, it is an interesting situation.
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The Latest on the Minnesota Twins Free Agency Rumors
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I like Eovaldi, but health risk and reward when he's healthy vs cost scares me. I think I might be put. Drury is intriguing, but 2022 was his first good/full season since 2017. I think Pollock made a huge mistake opting out of his deal, but a like him as a reserve/platoon RH bat. I don't believe he's going to cost much. But I think Myers or Mancini might be better choices. Go grab one of them! Please, no more trial and error with Pagan. Bring in someone to replace him. And while I think Alcala has a chance to be a difference maker, why not TWO RP so that our biggest problem is a roster crunch vs trying to flesh out said roster. Lastly, I'm really thinking someone like Iglesias for SS might be smart. Nothing special, to be sure, but experienced and solid and it allows Farmer to be a super utility instead of locking in to one position.- 39 replies
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- nathan eovaldi
- brandon drury
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What Can Nick Gordon Do for an Encore?
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The current FO had no obligation to him. But they kept him on the 40 man pretty much since they took control. He would have been an easy target to move on from. But they kept him. And he's actually spent a lot of time at SS in ST games to see what he can do. He's OK there, but nothing you want long term. But this FO has done nothing BUT protect him and keep him thus far. -
Joey Gallo Is A Land of Contrasts
DocBauer replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Thank you for the info on his split. I wasn't aware of that until you posted it and I also heard it on the Patreon today. Once again, I've been changing my opinion on this signing. More than willing I was a but knee jerk at first. While I still am not excited about Gallo, and I don't know that I would have gone this route, I see a method to the madness now: 1] Kepler is moved for a player, (packaged?) or a prospect of decent quality, and gets a change of scenery. 2] Gallo also gets a change of scenery after probably just not being a fit in NY. Meanwhile, Kepler's defense is replaced by Gallo, who can also be a part-time option in CF, and a spare 1B if needed. Gallo has way more power, and we don't have the enormous splits that Kepler is known for. Further, we still have a veteran bat to not "force" Wallner to the ML level, and allow Kirilloff...if/when ready to go...to focus more on 1B and needed less in the OF. The #1 issue is, of course, do we get the Gallo of 2022, utterly useless, OR, do we get the 2 time All Star that was good, and productive, as recently as 2021 and has a career OPS+ of 109 even after bottoming out for a career poor season in 2022? No question there's a bit of a gamble here, but again, I'm seeing the method to the madness in this move. Everything goes as "planned/hoped", Larnach in LF, Buxton, Gallo in RF, Gordon as a super-utility, and a healthy AK covering 1B and can still play some corner OF as needed. Celestino and Wallner begin the year in St Paul as both are talented, but have rough edges to SS smooth over. What's still missing? A RH bat for this lineup that can help make a difference. I just don't see Garlick as the answer, more of a fallback. The $ is there to still add. How much better does depth, options, and potential production look if they add Myers, Mancini, or maybe even Pollack? Some have mentioned Profar, and while I'm not crazy about him, I could see a potential fit. But $ available, need, opportunity, and potential roster construction still screams at me to add a RH bat to the mix. -
What Can Nick Gordon Do for an Encore?
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
What can he do for an encore? How about just do what he did last year as a super utility player? I'd take a repeat 100%! What might he be capable of? 1} A little higher OB% as he continues to adjust to the league and learns to lay off just a little more on the stuff he can't get to. 2} Experience and a little more "man muscle" to go along with his quick swing might see a slight uptick in his SLG%. 3} Don't over-slide bases so often so you can be a better threat as an actual basestealer. Not sure he WILL do any of those last 3 things, but now that he's gained some experience and settled in, I see room for possible improvement as well. -
Joey Gallo Is A Land of Contrasts
DocBauer replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
After a lot or reading, listening, and contemplating, I have somewhat changed my position on Gallo. To be clear, I wouldn't have made this move, regardless if the Twins move/moved Kepler or not. I mean, we're looking for both to rebound in some fashion in 2023 right? Kepler has LOST all power for whatever reason. But at least he doesn't strike out at the highest pace in ML history...or recent history...and if he finds his power again...wherever he lost it...he might be the better all around player. But I can see the Twins playing the "change of scenery" card for both of them; move Kepler for something and bank on Gallo returning to previous form. I like that Gallo is a find defender who can play all 3 OF spots and some 1B. I like that he's still a dangerous power threat. So again, I've somewhat changed my stance on this move. Time for that aforementioned change of scenery. BUT, I WOULD HAVE brought in the best RH bat I liked and trusted in Larnach and Wallner (and Gordon) along with him and not made this move. But then again, considering the CRAZY injury situation last season, OK, keeping a LH veteran is not such a bad idea. I still don't think I would have done this deal. -
First and foremost, if Larnach is healthy...and his injuries have been of the freakish nature and not chronic...he makes a big difference going forward. IF...and it's a big IF at this time, Kirilloff could be a huge difference maker based on potential and what he's shown. And if he needs a month or two to get settled and ready, I'm OK with that. Wallner needs to work some on his defense. His bat can play, and at some time you HAVE TO PLAY your top prospects. But it's OK if he spends a little more time at St Paul to just round of the rough edges. The signing of Gallo....(shudder)...allows Wallner the luxury of rounding those rough edges. (Still want to trust in the kids at this point and hate the Gallo signing). Dare I say it, Julien ALMOST appears to be a clone of Arraez after two milb seasons with more power and speed. Not exact, but similar. While the AFL is hitter friendly, he was robbed of MVP. Still not sure why he spent the entire season at AA. And he's not yet ML ready, but he's damn close. Just need to find his best spot. Seems to be 2B, but it would be awesome if he could be OK at least another position. I was down on Martin. And then he finished his AA season strong. He was also very good in the AFL, again, a hitters environment. But he just might be ready to explode playing the OF, with the ability to cover 2B/3B and be an emergency SS. But he's not ready yet. We're looking for #1? Lewis all day long. Athleticism, guts, determination, skills, he's my #1. The Twins will be cautious, which is fine, but June or July, I believe he's going to be fine even if outstanding speed and quickness drops half a point. I believe Lee is a sort of Correa, Ripken type at SS where smarts, instinct, positioning, arm, makes him a viable ML SS. But Lewis should be just a little better. And despite a great debut, there is no reason to rush him. He's going to force his own way. Let him start at AA and let's see what happens. Lewis is #1, Lee a close #2. Miranda will turn out to be a good 3B, But he will give way to Lee at 3B, Lewis at SS, and swap back and forth at 1B and 3B along with, hopefully, Kirilloff at 1B.
- 22 replies
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- brooks lee
- royce lewis
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Minnesota Twins Sign Joey Gallo
DocBauer replied to Theodore Tollefson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Dear Twins FO, Sorry about the Giants playing bully and snatching Correa away. That contract was NUTS! While it's disappointing, you are forgiven. Thanks for a quality catcher in Valdez. He should be a big help! You have begun to redeem yourselves. Yeah...about that Gallo signing...are your resumes up to date? -
Absolutely no way on Gallo! We already have 3 LH corner OF, and that's not even including Gordon. We NEED that RH bat and there are a handful of logical options to still help us in that way. But I'll be honest, I like Pollock as a 4th, quasi-starting RH OF option. He had a bit of a down 2022, but he's had a solid career and provided pop and speed throughout his career. I was under the impression he had a player option with the Dirty Sox, so I never thought he might be available. Have I been misinformed? Turner is interesting depending on cost. What the Twins really need is either another SS (maybe Iglesias or Andrus or similar) to let Farmer be a super utility, OR, add another super-utility option to fill in across the diamond if Farmer remains the primary SS. The Urshela move stands on it's own. Three weeks or so later, things have changed. They now need another infielder from somewhere. I see these moves as being independent of one another. The intervening 3 weeks have seen to that. I don't know who the mystery man who made these comments is, but I don't know that he was necessarily that far off, if not exactly correct.
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A Former Insider's Thoughts on Losing the Big Fish
DocBauer replied to jdgoin's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
First, I want to thank Jack for his time and his insight! Wonderful! Yet another example of the tremendous work done by TD! I also want to give kudos to Ash for his post, graph, and work he put in. Some great comments and we'll done sir! (As always)! I fully understand and appreciate the poignant and somewhat loaded comment of: "They aren't cheap-they are disciplined". Personally, even though I've disagreed with certain aspects of moves, lack of, or payroll, I've never believed ownership was "cheap". They have invested in foreign academies, albeit with other organizations. They built a wonderful Ft Myers complex for ST and their lower level affiliates and the players involved. They've sustained the cost for various changes and improvements in Target Field at times. "Disciplined" to me can also mean "frugal". And neither is a bad word. I could add "responsible" . Again, nothing wrong with that. In the ordinary world of business, ownership that IS NOT disciplined, frugal, responsible, ends up with a business that usually fails. But MLB is not a normal business. Even in the NFL, with salary caps and salary floors, ownership can still make a difference in spending $ for quality FO personnel to run their team to build a competitive and winning team. And if you aren't smart in your hires, and don't spend $ to put together a FO and coaching staff of quality, you flounder. But again, MLB remains very different until/unless major changes happen on some fantasy day where revenue sharing is equal and there is more equilibrium in the sport. I am disappointed Correa isn't a Twin. But I never expected him to be one. We can argue back and forth all day long about the Twins initial offer, vs being higher, or jumping once they saw how the market had dramatically changed during this offseason. There ARE organizations, mostly the top 5-8 market wise, that could actually afford to make the kind of move the Giants did, and absorb the spread out losses they will/would incure over time. The Twins are not one of them. And we could argue a team or two, Padres, who's ownership couldn't seem to give a damn if they make a $1 profit, just give me a winner! The Twins payroll was SET to make a major move like this for Correa, even if they front loaced the dezl, gave him options and control, and offered up a second option of $315-320. The Giants just said, "what the hell", and still blew that kind of offer away. They can afford to do that, theoretically. Can you imagine ANY mid market team matching that kind of offer? The Cardinals might be the best run mid market franchise in all of MLB, and have been for decades. They are what I, as a fan, aspire the Twins to be if they can boost income through media deals and the such to meet their $170-180M payroll. But can you imagine them doing $350M for one player? Forgetting, for a moment, about the vast disparities in finances between the top clubs. The Twins, for once, had the opportunity to make a MAJOR statement going forward. Would Correa have "settled" for $315-320 if offered? We'll never know. I'm betting not due to ego, Boras, etc. I don't hate our FO for missing out on this crazy deal for a very good player. I don't hate our ownership for maybe wanting Correa more than the the FO. I don't hate them for being disciplined or frugal in their approach to build the team and the organization as a whole. And I don't hate them for all the improvements they've made in the system and their forward thinking. What I DO object to is swimming in the deep end not knowing how to swim, or looking for a logical life preserver. Re-do your TV and radio deals. DON'T sit on your hands to do nothing when opportunity presents itself to add a player or two who could make a difference to push your team forward. DO push payroll forward to keep what you have and make those couple moves that can make a difference here and there. I don't expect a $200M payroll. They need to develop their talent. They need to trade smart here and there. They also need to re-sign what they have. Thats how you achieve consistency. But they also need to accept dipping their toes in the FA pool once in a while to add. Being disciplined/frugal/responsible is great. It should keep you from making major mistakes. But you also have to stretch your payroll once in a while to actuality be competitive. I'm not speaking about Correa right now. I'm talking about tomorrow. -
I fully appreciate your concern and pessimism. It makes sense. But I'm going to fight your concern, even if it involves a tinge of hope. :) Lewis is young and a tremdous athlete. He was everything hoped for in 2022 at St Paul and in his short time with the Twins, showing zero loss of any ability. In fact, he was as fast and athletic as he was pre-injury. Now, I don't know that he rushed back, but maybe. I don't know that his initial injury wasn't performed properly, but maybe. His injury last year just looked like a freaky way of landing that caused his 2nd tear. Modern medicine is pretty crazy good in regard to injuries such as this. The new grafting techniques used for TJ and knees, where a supporting mesh is added, look very promising. It's important to note Lewis' second injury was only a partial tear. And again, he's young, athletic, and also a very dedicated worker. I do believe the Twins will be cautious with him and not rush him. His knee needs to be sound, of course. And we are all hoping for that. And IF he loses half a step, he goes from elite to very good. Fortunately, we aren't talking about a running back, wide receiver, etc, playing football. He just needs to be structurally sound. I'm betting he will be. But again, I think the Twins will be cautious. If it takes until July, or even August, so be it. But I'm betting on him.
- 56 replies
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- christian vazquez
- nick gordon
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If you can place a special bat in the DH spot and leave him there daily, maybe he can play 1B once in a while or another spot, I'm OK with having that spot primarily filled by that one guy. Think Cruz for reference. And no question the Twins need to add another bat somewhere. But there's another way to look at the DH spot. ANY sort of "normal" health, and maybe a little bit of luck, the Twins lineup should feature some variation ofLarnach, Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, Kirilloff, RH bat TBD, Maeda, Polanco, Arraez, catcher, and SS. That's, potentially, a pretty good 1-7 with at least a decent bottom 2 of catcher and SS. There is room to just roll one of those bats through the DH spot for a half day off for someone, and keep your best players engaged daily. Further, if you have a unique bat like Arraez taking up the DH spot on a regular basis...example, not saying he doesn't ever play in the field...there's nothing wrong with having a bat that sets the table, advances runners, gets clutch hits, but isn't a power plant. I think the Twins prefer that approach, and it's always made sense to me. Have the best lineup you can, keep everyone sharp by playing, and roll through the DH. I, personally, only like a fixture at DH if he's pretty special. I might be forgetting someone, but the best options remaining to add a potentially really solid bat are Martinez, Gallo, Myers, and Mancini. Myers remains my #1 target as he can play a solid OF, boosting his roster flexibility. I like Mancini quite a bit for his bat and 1B ability. I doubt he plays the OF any better than Garlick at this point, but he still can a little, and I think is a better overall producer than Garlick. Can Martinez play the OF at all any longer? 36 games in 2021 and ZERO in 2022. I still like his bat! But do we/the Twins want a maybe DH only? Gallo fits the idea of playing the OF, but bats LH, and so much swing and miss to go with his power. Don't we have enough young LH OF talent to play instead? And far less expensive, along with upside? I've got Myers #1 on my list with Mancini #2. Martinez makes sense if he can play OF AT ALL, and if you are worried about Kirilloff coming back. Then you start to think a little more about Arraez at 1B full time and open up DH more for that one guy.
- 56 replies
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- christian vazquez
- nick gordon
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Rumor: Breaking Down Potential Dansby Suitors
DocBauer replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'm not in love with Swanson. But I don't hate him either. He's not Correa, but he's not bad either. Three years above 100 OPS+, though one was a short term 2016, and another year at 99 OPS+. Career 95 OPS+ for a SS is pretty acceptable, if not good. At 28yo, I wouldn't expect any big dip in performance for 4-5yrs. It feels like MLBTR have been a little low from the early projections I read. I'd snap up Swanson for 6 and $120 without worry. He solidifies SS for the Twins as a "nice" all around option...who may have just hit his ceiling... and I can move Lewis to 2B/OF and Lee to 3B or other easily. But I'm thinking the way the market is going, he might end up at $150M for 6 or 7yrs. Do we still like him then? -
As of today, right now, this is probably right. What I think should be done going forward? 1} Get that RH bat we need so much. IMO, I will repeat Wil Myers makes the most sense. Solid bat with some power, and can play solid defense. I like him better than Martinez, who is pretty much locked in to DH only. 2} NO to Pagan in the pen. And I'd say no to Megill right now too. We just have to have at least one long/middle innings arm to bridge the gap to the end of the pen, if not two. Good chance that can be Winder, Henriquez, Sands, or another rotation piece sliding in to the pen for now. Why not use the $ available to add a quality back end 7-8th inning arm to deepen the pen? I thin k Alcala could make a big difference this year. But why not a SECOND solid FA arm so we don't have to just automatically depend on Alcala being 100% back and ready to go from day one? 3} I DON'T want Swanson as a consellation prize. I think he's a really nice player and looking at his stats, he's really not a 1 year wonder. But from all reports he's no longer 6-7yrs at $150M. Now he's 9-10yrs and a good $200M. Does the FO really like him? Is he a high quality long term option? If unsure, just stop! 4} I wouldn't mind another SS option to make Farmer a super utility player, OR, a good utility player to join Gordon in that role. Celestino should begin the season in St Paul. He's been rushed twice and Gordon is pretty solid in CF for days off here and there. Let Celestino get his act together. 5} Hugely unsure about adding to the rotation if Rodon is out. I really, really like and want Rodon. I wanted him last year. But $200M and 7yrs? I just don't know that it's going to happen. After that, I'm leaning toward trusting in better health with the arms we have and provide opportunities for our young depth as they arise. But I'm on open on the rotation add. Unfortunately, I don't know that there's anyone I like or think might make any kind of difference...other than Rodon...except maybe Eovaldi. IF he's healthy. But is he really better than the arms we already have? I guess I'm a bit of an optimist. I don't think this team is ready for a WS challenge. But if we can just have normal health this year, I like the rotation arms and love the potential of our young hitters, as ell as a rebound for Polanco. I'm OK with adding through FA if the deals seem smart. But I don't want to add just to add. And I don't want to sell the farm after moving some quality young talent last year if I can help it.
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The Minnesota Twins' Front Office Played Themselves
DocBauer replied to Matthew Taylor's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I almost agree 100%...just not all the way there. As I've stated in other posts, the 10yrs and $285M offer to Correa, if an INITIAL one, with all the opt out control, was a fine offer. If you look at total value and control and most of the signings the past few seasons, it was a logical beginning. HOWEVER, once it became clear that contracts were going to go on a sharp rise this year, the offer should have been a minimum $300M type of deal, probably $315-ish. THAT is what is disconcerting. Did the FO really believe nobody else was "in" on Correa with a better offer until it was too late? Now, I think the Giants just blew the Twins out of the water with their deal, and a deal I wouldn't do. But my issue with the FO is once it became clear we were going over $300M no matter what, time to boldly jump in and play the game, or walk away and look at other options. Can I tell you exactly which other options? No, not without sitting down and taking the time to make a list. But maybe Contreras at catcher for a better bat...while still having a good glove...than Vazquez. Maybe the jump on Bassitt early and get him to help head the rotation. (Not a stud, but a good and proven arm). MAYBE, though I kinda doubt it, a sudden turn to Boegarts for similar $ AAV but not the extra years? I don't believe the FO just sits on their hands and does nothing while waiting for Correa, in this case, or in dealing with Buxton last year. But there is a real sense, IMO, that they are so locked in and focused on a "one big deal" that they do loose sight of the big picture. Last year was a perfect example where we ended up with Bundy, Archer, and Smith when there was a plethora of interesting and solid arms out there that came off the board one by one. I don't hate our FO. I don't think lack of signing someone is necessarily a lack of interest or due diligence, sometimes the numbers are impossible or the player has an absolute preference, etc. But you are either in or not on your big move. And regardless, you should have an idea of needs, budget, and available options. And it just feels to me they wait around too long at times before getting "serious" about turning their attention elsewhere.- 76 replies
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- carlos correa
- derek falvey
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1} Unless he's just really up for a new challenge and really wants to stick at SS, he's going to veto a trade to the Twins to stay with his only known team. 2} The Twins sure aren't going to pay $16M for 1yr of a defense first SS with a questionable bat. They MIGHT be willing to pay half of that. But even if SF eats half of his salary, the Twins aren't going to want to give up much for said 1yr of a defense first, questionable bat SS, even if he is a good guy and leader type. 3} Let's just say he agrees, the Giants eat half his deal, and it costs the Twins very little to get him. On that basis, I'm OK with the idea. It allows the Twins to use Farmer in a super utility role that he seems well suited for and deepens the bench and lineup. In fact, if Swanson isn't brought on board...and I'm not sure I want him at this point...I wouldn't mind another SS OR another utility type brought in...with a decent bat...to deepen the bench and lineup. But I don't see this as a likely option.
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Why Don’t Twins Value Money Less and Players More?
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The system isn't depleted of talent, though it's split between AAA and then A ball. But it's not depleted. And the upcoming draft should/could add some very nice talent. And trades are a good way to augment your team. But as a mid market team, you need to hold on to and develop as much of your talent as you can. Position wise, the system looks pretty good. Things don't look as strong pitching wise...though there have been a few encouraging arms to reach the ML level the past 2yrs...due to injury, poor performance, and possibly by being too focused on position players. But FA SHOULD be part of the equation, even if we're not talking about a $300M type. And there are always good players available that aren't the TOP FA on the market. The last offseason is a perfect example where there were arms way better than Archer and Bundy. But they seemed so focused on the Buxton extension that they just ignored the market. I am not going to get in to a debate about the Twins ownership and spending. While I think it's easy, and maybe accurate, to say they bring in more $ from the Twins than we know/speculate. Even when comparing other mid market organizations, it's still almost impossible to know how things like TV and radio deals affect available $ to spend. And I would have no right to demand a business not make a profit from their team. Conversely, I think there are owners out there who view their sports teams as a "hobby" and could hardly care about profits vs the fun and ego of winning. Now, that doesn't always work year to year. We can see that with WS wins from KC and Atlanta the past few years vs disappointing results for the Dodgers, Mets, etc. But FA HAS to be a part of your approach. Even if you can't ever, or hardly ever, swim in the deep end of the pool, you can still target some very good players that you CAN add to augment what you have and build the very best OVERALL TEAM that you can put together. I don't know that the Twins are adverse to playing in FA, but just waiting for value won't get it done. They need to target the 1 or 2 they really like/want/need and THEN play the waiting game for additional value.- 24 replies
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- derek falvey
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