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Everything posted by DocBauer
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1] I love and appreciate good defense, and I WANT my team to be the best defensively they can be. And I recognize WAR for a player is partially based on defense, which is very difficult to quantify accurately. So I do take any WAR from Castro with a grain of salt as a utility player being almost forced to play daily skews the concept of WAR, IMO. 2] I liked Castro when he was signed, and stated so. I saw a talented kid who was promoted too early, not developed, was still only 26yo, and offered potential. (I wasn't the only one). He's actually exceeded my expectations, despite not exactly setting the world on complete fire in regard to AVG/OB/SLG/OPS. 3] I DON'T agree, as Chpettit19 pointed out, that you HAVE to have some super-utility player to make your roster complete. And I'm not going to lay out roster combinations again that he stated very well as possible. But I also recognize it's not always easy to actually HAVE that perfect 1-13 that you'd like to have, due to injuries alone. 4] I disagree that Castro has FORCED anything. I mean, he still has to keep playing well. And I object to any mention of long term. Now, if long term is the next couple of seasons, and he keeps doing what he's doing, then YES, he's at least earned the right to be on the 40 man and the #1 candidate to be said super-utility player, and I do think he offers more than Gordon. Gordon might have more pop, and as much or more speed, but that speed hasn't translated in to SB, and Castro's defense and overall positional versatility is much better. 5] Helman has been robbed of his 2023 season so far due to a hamstring, then a concussion, and now a shoulder injury. And while a RH bat, he offers, potentially, an even better bat than Castro with similar speed and as much, if not more, positional flexibility. Based on 2022 and his ",jump start" at AAA now, Prato is very similar to Castro in positional flexibility, POTENTIALLY a better bat. The cupboard isn't bare for challengers and options at the super-utility spot. 6] I LOVE what Castro has brought to the team. I love his defense and his speed as a weapon. He's an OK hitter with potential still, which I also like and embrace. But the Twins offense SHOULD be better, and not have to rely on him so much as a daily starter. Long story short, he's EARNED his spot for the rest of the year. He's earned a 40 man spot. I'd take him over Gordon. And he's earned the right to be at the top of the pecking order as the 13th man, super-utility option going in to 2024. No debate there at all. Love the guy. But I can't dismiss the idea that he's got to keep doing what he's doing...maybe continue to improve...because there ARE other options in 2024 to replace him, or a roster deep enough, potentially, that he becomes the 14th man.
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Festa and Nowlin are a couple of other late picks in recent seasons that are showing well in the sytem, Festa more so. They do tend to mix things up in regard to height, weight, and different levels of ball and different kinds of "stuff", which I'm glad to see. Senseless to pigeonhole yourself in to just one type of anything. I know I stated this elsewhere recently, but it's interesting to me the Twins aren't afraid to draft guys: A} Coming off injury, or in their first season back from one, believing they are getting value in an arm being "underrated" at the time. B} Smaller school arms...often with good length...that they believe aren't fully developed yet. And that makes sense. Most 17-18yo kids simply aren't done with their physical development yet. Some add 30lbs and grow another 2-4" even after HS graduation. So you get someone from a smaller school that wasn't ready for the power conference offers and maybe has a higher ceiling available. A smart approach!
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Byron Buxton's Clock Is Ticking
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nor going to find a bigger fan of Buck than myself. But yeah, the word for watching him right now is "painful". Absolutely seems to be guessing on every single pitch, but also acting as if he's not allowed to hit something in the center of the zone. While never a perfect player/hitter, and always with far fewer gamea/AB than we'd like, 2019/20/21/22 had him with OPS+ of 115/125/171/133. That's a good, powerful, and dangerous bat. While his inability to play defense...maybe never again...is an awful shame, I'd take the '19-'22 Buxton as our full time DH any day of the week. But he's not even close to that player right now. I'd like to see him get a IL stint for his back, at least, as well as a mental re-set. Let Julien and Polanco both play, whether it be 2B or DH. Further, for a team that prides itself on trying to be creative, who likes to build rosters that have versatility, they are being foolishly stubborn at this time. Why not Julien at 1B? He's done it before. Maybe some LF? Again, he's done it before. He won't be great at either spot, but I'd settle for OK at 1B and passable/not dangerous in left, and it keeps his bat in the lineup and offers the lineup more flexibility. For that matter, maybe Polanco could play a little 3B? Or with his leg issues, how about him learning some 1B? Help Buxton feel better and get his "hitters head" screwed on straight and keep the better bats that are actually contributing in the lineup. For that matter, DON'T send Wallner down. DH and OF, let him play. Time to move on from one of Gallo or Kepler. It would appear Kepler is made of Teflon in the FO opinion, so I guess Gallo goes. I love Buxton. I believe in him, even as a full time DH, if that's his future. But we just aren't getting anything close to the Byron we've seen the past 4yrs. It's time for some changes and some re-sets.- 52 replies
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First and foremost, THANK YOU and everyone else for some AMAZING coverage of the draft! I'm going to be long-winded here, because it's my nature, LOL, and because I think this is a very interesting topic. So here goes! 1] Very interesting to me how this draft parallels 2022. Might be a pattern, might be coincidence. It's HS vs college, but a bat we shouldn't have been able to get, and an arm that we shouldn't have been able to get. Then we draft a virtual clone in Keaschall vs Schobel, albeit with more reported speed. Then a POTENTIAL 5 tool HS OF in a spot we didn't have in 2022. And then Hall this year who is not so different than Morris last year. And while the Twins went P heavy this year...and aren't opposed to drafting different types of arms and body types...there does seem to be a pattern with some of their selections. More on that later. 2] I wanted Clark or Langford only because I wanted a true CF prospect. As an amateur follower of the draft, it's so hard to wrap my head around the idea that ANY of the top 5 would probably be a #1 pick most years. That sounds so "unlike" Twins luck! LOL! It's a weird concept to accept we "lucked in" to a kid who would be #1 most years but we got him at #5. A kid with all the tools in the world, and character to boot. Guessing he fills out more and the speed declines to average, which is fine. 3] Wasn't a fan of the Keaschall pick simply due to the fact he's a clone of Schobel. How many 2B/utility players do we need? Even if they are high character and are "ballplayers". I thought there were other options in the OF and P that had higher ceilings. But I just can't dislike the pick the more I look at him. At some point, you draft a good athlete with a good glove and athleticism and good bat with pop/power and speed and figure out where to play them later. Can he be a legitimate CF option as some have suggested? Might change my mind. Don't hate the pick, but I'm not sure it was the right choice. 4] Love the Winokur pick as a HS kid who played mostly SS because he was the most talented player on his team. Like Jenkins, his build and maturity might force him to a corner spot eventually. With both, who knows. But even slightly above average speed means XB hits, a few SB, XB taken, and coverage of the OF defensively. But he's GOT TO improve bat to ball contact from what I've read. Crazy to be talking about a HS kid and his future being Gallo or Judge potentially. But that is the ceiling of this kid. 5] I saved Soto for a reason. I am SO IMPRESSED with this kid as a young man as well as his potential. He's only 17yo, been pitching full time for a couple of seasons, already throws mid 90's, with some solid secondary offerings. Went to the draft last year to just be a part of the experience. Brought multiple family members to the draft this year to enjoy the experience this year. He was amazingly candid and open with his interviews with the ML network host board. He's already plugged in to community work in is city. He's a class kid with amazing potential with a tremendous attitude. I'm sorry, but HS pitcher or not, the most volatile prospect you can have, I'd put him in the BEST PICKS category. 5A] FWIW, former Twins Cuddyer and Hocking have actually worked with and know Jenkins, Soto, and Winokur well. And the kids are already friends. 6] Hall might be a steal and reminds me a lot of Ryan. Not the ideal size and ratio you are always looking for, but spin and smarts and control. He's a winner who might be throwing 95 this time next year with his control. 7] Re-stating what I've posted before post draft, the FO/scouting department isn't looking for an ideal. They aren't afraid to draft a Hall, who doesn't meet all measurements. They know there is something there to improve on. But they are also very focused on two things : 7A] They are more than happy to look at a pitcher like Pasqualatto who, like ANY prospect or ML pitcher, has been coming back from surgery and is ready to find temselve again. AND.... 7B] They aren't afraid to select a pitcher who maybe didn't earn top offers initially, but grew at lower college levels and have potential given a chance. Those guys are the Obers, and Varlands. And they drafted a boatload of possibles. 8] It's OK a couple of the arms drafted seem to be milb "fodder" because you need them too. And 1 or 2 might just surprise. it's also smart to grab Parker as a draft and follow, which i didn't realize had happened. Old school rules. They can sign him before the 2024 draft. NO way Larson doesnt go to LSU unless there's something like $1.5M available in savings. A tremendous draft, on the back of a great draft last year. But you don't get everyone.
- 23 replies
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The Twins Shouldn't Trade Sonny Gray Out of Panic
DocBauer replied to Lou Hennessy's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
With a few exceptions, almost anybody is available for trade at any time. That's just basic logic if someone makes an offer too good to pass up. But I say no to trading Gray, though indont know that "panic" is necessarily the right term. I want this team to win the ALC and have a first round, home, 3 game series in the playoffs. Do I think this team has a legitimate chance to win the WS? I do not. Not unless the offense suddenly turns in to a middle of the pack offense to go along with the staff they have on hand. But I want that ALC flag. I want my team to reach the playoffs, and maybe win that first round series. And they can. Next year's team will be different than this year's team to be sure. But I believe winning helps build a winning attitude. I don't care about next year, right now. I care about now, right now. I DON'T want to purge the system to "go for it" when there are this many questions about the offense. I AM OK, with a couple small deals for a RP and RH bat rental. But the chances of winning the ALC and winning a first round series...who knows what might happen after that...are better with Gray. And as a FAN, I want my team to win as many games as they can. I want every flag to fly I can get. I want my team to win playoff games and let me enjoy as much winning as I can this season. Gray helps that happen. A prospect or two from A or AA ball that won't do anything for this year, maybe not next year, doesn't excite me as much as my Twins accomplishing the things I've just stated. I want to look forward to 2024, but be able to sit back at some time this offseason...when it's all said and done...and say to myself: "didn't turn out the way I had hoped, but that was fun!" -
I don't know Gray but he seems like a good dude. I know he's known as a real leader for the staffs he's on, helping to bring everyone together to do things Ike sharing the scouting reports as a unit, and watching the day's starter as a collective unit. When you watch interviews with him, he does them with a ball in his hand and it just looks natural for him to do so. I think his comment was more of a "who knows, I might retire?" as an off the cuff comment. I put no faith in it as anything but that. I don't recall him ever saying anything remotely negative about the team or the organization. His comment about wanting to throw longer in games last season was SO blown out of proportion. He's a competitor who doesn't want to come out. A week after that comment he got another inning and it didn't work. His very honest comment was that he appreciated getting the opportunity to go longer, but it was up to him to then do the job. He's just a matter of fact guy when he gives answers. I appreciate that in a player. And while he's seldom ever been a 180IP thrower in his career, he's generally very good for 5-6, going 7 every once in a while. Despite an All Star worthy season this year, he's had a few games where he barely made it through 5. He never blasted the decision to take him out, but simply opined that he needed to throw better and get better. So I don't know if he loves being a Twin or not. But there's zero evidence he is a dissenter of any sort who doesn't like being here either. The Twins will, and should, offer the QO. If he rejects it, which I expect, I DON'T see an interested team NOT signing him because of the QO. He's too good to play games. I think the Twins would be overjoyed to have him for 1yr at the QO were he to accept. I DO expect the Twins to offer him a deal, however. I think what they would like is a 2yr deal for around $45-50M. Despite them liking him, wanting to keep him, having payroll flexibility to keep him, I don't see a guaranteed 3rd season unless it's something like 2yrs at about $25M each, and the 3rd year for something like $12-15. I believe they will see too much risk/reward for anything larger than that. But that still puts him somewhere between $55-60M for 3yrs, just less in year 3. I think what they would really like is $23-25 per for 2yrs, and $12-14 for year 3 with a $5M buyout. That would be ideal for the Twins, but another team might be willing to go a full 3yrs at a guaranteed $60-65 and the Twins are out. Despite being 34yo next year, and paying him through his age 37yo season, all it takes is one team to offer that. Now, IF, there is any part of him remotely considering retirement before turning 37, then a 2yr for $50 might put him back with the Twins. I just think he's gone, not because he doesn't like being a Twin, but because someone is going to give him a $60M deal that the Twins won't. But we get a pair of great seasons and a comp pick that he, more or less, initially cost. But I would like him back if it worked out somehow.
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Matt's Top Prospect List (Mid-Season) + Writeups
DocBauer commented on Matt Braun's blog entry in 80MPH Changeup
Always enjoy reflections and opinions on the system. Not sure I'd have included Sabato. And the way this season is going SWR would be lower on my list. I know he's still very young, but where is the velocity? Where is the single out pitch? What on earth has changed so much since last year? Agree on liking Headrick but feeling he's going to end up in the pen. Also think Canterino still has a shot, but probably as a reliever now. And if Cardenas can polish his defense, I think his bat will play well. But Cossetti might be even better. A few guys not mentioned surprise me. Williams as a late blooming 1B/DH? Winokur, possible 5 tool talent about the same age as some of the IL kids in Florida? And no appearance of Nowlin on your list?- 18 comments
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Seems like a very bright kid. Love the attitude and determination. Already knows what he wants to do, add velocity...which he knows the Twins are known for...and already knows he wants to add a cutter to his arsenal. Keep seems to be "plugged" in to his future career already. Different change, but does he remind you of Ryan?
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- southern miss
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Which Twins Left-Handed Outfielder Should Go?
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
With respect to the OP, Gallo goes first as he's performed even worse than Kepler...which is almost mond boggling...and is the poorer defender. But the truth remains the same truth we've even on proverbial soap boxes for weeks now: both must go. I've commented previously that "nothing will change unless something changes". And I stand by that. No meeting or "go get 'em" attitude is going to turn this around over night. But Gallo at .160 AVG and barely over .300 OB without even getting power production. It just didn't work. Admit it didn't work, and move on. Kepler has been hitting between .180-.190, I believe, since mid 2022. His OPS has been on the decline now for 3 straight years. What's going to suddenly change? Offensively at least, how bad would Larnach and Wallner have to be to actually be worse? Last time I checked, Larnach had a better AVG, similar or better OB% than either, and comparable OPS. And he's younger and offers at least SOME upside, depending on how much you like him. Forget destroying opponents' pitching at AAA, Wallner has almost exactly half a season of ML sevice time between last year and this year. SSS to be sure. But in that half season his numbers just destroy what we've been getting from Gallo and Kepler both, and couple "hot" games notwithstanding. The numbers for both aren't hard to look up. I don't believe the FO dislikes either Larnach or Wallner. My goodness, they drafted and developed and promoted them. But they absolutely seem to have blinders at times on certain players. They almost give the appearance at times of being afraid of change I'm case they somehow get something wrong. At other times, they are very aggressive with change. Heck, while we're on the topic, Kirilloff can also play the OF. Maybe we should be talking about Williams as a late blooming 26yo 1B/DH destroying AAA. Maybe he fits in this discussion somewhere, instead of it being all about the OF. And while there needs to be additional changes made in the offseason in regard to approach, maybe staff, I stand by my original statement that nothing will change unless something changes. It's time for change. -
2023 MLB Draft Day 3 Thread
DocBauer replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
We're going to have a lot of long conversations about this draft now that the dust has settled, and TD is accumulating thumbnails for all of the draftees for us to digest and discuss. But I, of course, have my own viewpoints to toss out initially, lol. 1] Regarding the catcher debate: Unless they look potentially special, quality catchers are built, not drafted. The Twins HAVE drafted catchers, and have even signed a few international kids there...though I wish they would do more. They have the vastly improved Jeffers, and the very solid Vazquez, despite him catching the "anti-hitting" disease that has afflicted the entire Twins roster. **cue Ashbury with a scene from THE NATURAL that I'm not proficient enough to know how to do.** But they aren't devoid of some young talent that might turn out. And like most drafts, this one wasn't catcher rich. Still, I believe catchers are like QB in the NFL, damn hard to find! I believe an NFL team should draft a QB every other year, late even, to see if lightening strikes for a starter, or a backup, or a potential trade chip. I also believe a ML team should draft a couple of catchers, even late, every single year for depth and HOPE. But I'm not overly surprised the Twins didn't this year. 2022 draftee Baez has everything but experience and has had his 2023 debut disrupted due to injury. And they have a few international kids to look at. And with one of the deepest drafts ever, and rookie FA possibilities, I'm OK they went mostly pitching. 2] Not the least surprised the Twins went the HS route for a lot of their picks. The value was there, and they have enough bonus $ to make it work. They selected more than a few college players who should sign lower deals to make up the difference. And in today's game, you seldom, if ever, pick a HS kid beyond the first 3 or 4 rounds unless you have an agreement in place. So I would expect virtually all the HS kids to sign without issue. What's interesting is their last 2 picks were HS players. This isn't a total surprise as while we no longer have the "draft and follow" premise before signing late that disappeared decades ago, it's still a statement saying: " We like you and will be following you in college". The Twins got lucky when SS, and top college prospect, Omari Daniel decided to turn pro vs going to college. Maybe they get lucky again. But everyone else should sign. 3] The Twins don't "type cast" their arms, which I love. If they did, in a misguided attempt, Ryan wouldn't be a Twin right now. They are more than eager to grab a Prielipp, or a Soto early. But they are also ready to draft a Hall in the 4th round who doesn't have the absolute "measureables" of 6' 2" and above, and weigh in at 200lbs plus. They are smart enough to realize control is a good thing, as is deception, and secondary stuff. They believe in "pitching" talent, knowing they can work on velocity, control, and even refining a secondary pitch. And while they still grabbed a handful of arms that DON'T make the absolute "measurable" numbers, what they look for, rotation or bullpen, are arms to work with and then develop. But other than "we believe we can unlock more velocity and find better control and a 3rd or even 4th pitch" mantra, what they believe in is an arm that just hasn't hit it's potential yet. With that being said, if there was an OBVIOUS "type" in the Twins draft strategy for pitchers beyond the first couple or rounds, you would see two things: A] An arm coming off injury or a great arm with great stuff just coming off a poor season with potential still in place. B] A long and lengthy arm, probably from a smaller school, who hasn't found their full potential yet. Think Ober and Varland, Lewis and Mathews last year, and look at some of the draftees this year on day 2 and 3. Length leads to velocity and deception. Smaller school kids means they were undervalued coming out of HS, still growing and developing. Just like last year, you can see some potentially underrated arms that fit the Twins MO of future development and possibilities. My ONLY complain is I just wish there were more LH arms to work with.- 82 replies
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- mlb draft 2023
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2023 MLB Draft Day 3 Thread
DocBauer replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I like the breakdown and largely agree. I almost did the exact same type of post Monday night but was just too tired after work and yardwork after. Kudos to you for having more energy than me. LOL. I will grudgingly give you an "even" on Lee vs Jenkins based on the ceiling of Jenkins. But it's hard to do that with Lee at 3B/2B vs an OF. I'm torn on Soto vs Prielipp. While I understand Prielipp is battling "something" right now, and being brought along painstakingly, but understandably, slow, if he's right and ready for instructs and 2024, all this injury crap behind him finally, I have to disagree that Soto has a much higher ceiling. A healthy Prielipp, no surgery, wouldn't have fallen to the Twins last year. And if he did, it would have been a choice between he and Lee. I'm glad the Twins took the shot on Prielipp. And HOPEFULLY, whatever is slowing him down at this moment is nagging, and not serious. I know it might hopefully silly to say... because some guys never make it all the way back...but if he only has a "tweak" somewhere that rest and rehab will take care of...let's just say a biceps tendinitis or something similar...he might look fantastic in 2024. So my objection is just "ceiling" between the two. What's really interesting to me is the parallels between the two drafts. STUD INF, that shouldn't have been there, STUD OF that we had no chance for before the lottery win. Then a potential STUD pitcher that maybe shouldn't have been available, but he was. College vs HS is different, I grant you, but the similarities are there. Then, they draft a virtual clone INF/OF player. And after that, with Winokur being an outlier for a lost pick, for the next several picks you can see arm vs arm between the two drafts. Just very interesting to me how parallel these past two drafts have been.- 82 replies
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- mlb draft 2023
- brandon winokur
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He sounds bright, hard working, and very balanced in his approach to baseball and life. I've heard the Twins scouts just fell in love with him when they got to know him. I understand scouting is a tough job, as is projection of tools and talent. But I find some of the rankings and the 20-80 scout scale confusing/conflicting at times. He seems to have HIT ability, good speed, and budding power. His numbers in college only got better. I want to say MLB had him in the top 50? Yet his grades are all 50-55. Seems he should be 55-60 when you look at his production, especially moving up a level in competition. Oh well, it's the future that matters. I would describe him as a "ballplayer". That's a term that still carries a lot of weight, and means a lot to me. I think we drafted a Schobel "clone", but with maybe a little more speed. I'll take that!
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- luke keaschall
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Only "known" this young man since Sunday but I'm already so impressed by him. He came to th3 draft last year to just be a part of the experience. He brought like half of his family with him this year to enjoy the whole process with him. He was very impressive in his pair of brief interviews with the MLB Network host panel. He's active in his community and supports the youth team of his coach. He is a very impressive young man! Oh, he's also only 17yo, 6' 5", 210lbs, throws in the mid to upper 90's, has a good slider, and a solid change. And he seems driven to want to be the best he can be and learn. Kudos to Lopez for immediately reaching out to him and telling him about the organization. I just love how every new addition to the team speaks glowingly about the organization and how they and their families are treated. And every time I read about draftees, and prospects, or tune in to interviews that Seth does, all these guys come across as intelligent and high character. If character was a 6th tool, I think the Twins look pretty hard for it. Can't wait to see Soto on the hill!
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The idea of the 6 man rotation to keep everyone strong, healthy, and fresh to finish out the season is a solid one. Though I'd rather see Varland get on his game again and be the guy. But IF Keuchel has anything left and CAN get hitters out with any sort of reliability, you can have the advantages of a 6 man rotation without actually having to have a 6 man rotation. Whether you want to make your plan FIXED or not, it's as simple as every starter skips a start and slides to the pen. Example: Ober skips a start one turn through, uses a game experience at some point to be his "bullpen" instead of throwing on the side, the the pen still has 8 members, not 7, thus not weakened. They've done this 6 man cycle in the minors for years to give young arms opportunities and to keep them fresh for an entire season. If Keuchel still, actually, has something left in the tank and can contribute, this is the most logical way to proceed.
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- dallas keuchel
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2023 MLB Draft Day 2 Thread
DocBauer replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Thanks for the compliment. While I was born and raised a Twins fanatic.."damn you father" LOL...I do always TRY to approach everything from the draft, to the minors, to the Twins themselves with a honest and long term view. I try to be pragmatic in all things, even though emotion comes in to play once in a while. Again, thank you for the TREMENDOUS compliment. I had actually held out some hope that the Twins MIGHT save enough bonus $ at some point to take a shot at Witt. I'm pretty sure his father has some influence here, and he should. There's every reason to believe a healthy senior season should land him anywhere in the top 3 rounds, maybe the 1st. I can't argue against betting on yourself and feeling you're going to be GOOD TO GO in 2024. More power to the kid. As far as catchers go, I believe to this day they are undervalued as to their importance. And one of my pet peeves with the FO has been ignoring the Latin market for catching options, even though history has produced a tremendous amount of talent there. Finding a high quality catcher that can be a 2-way producer is equivalent of finding an ACE pitcher, IMO. But in every draft, how many catchers are drafted early who turn out to be studs on both sides? There are just so few 1st round catchers who become STUDS. I still remember Harper being a transformation player who went to the OF. Right or wrong, the Twins have Vazquez for 2 more years. The underrated Jeffers is under control, for the same. There IS some catching talent in the system, though their future is TBD. The Twins haven't ignored the catching position, but they recognize a Mauer type only comes along so often. So they draft guys, similar to any position, that have potential to grow. And I would say with easy confidence, a catcher is usually grown and developed, seldom drafted to be a stud.- 126 replies
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- mlb draft 2023
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2023 MLB Draft Day 2 Thread
DocBauer replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Last thing I want to do is derail the thread, BUT, the catcher conversation is worth looking at in regard to the draft. The past 2 drafts, the Twins have selected 5 catchers, all from college: Winkel, Cardenas, Tatum, Baez and Cossetti. Carmago, Williams, and Isola were acquired via trade and a couple later draft picks. Carmago was pushed to AAA after just starting to really have his bat come alive in 2022. I was surprised. He started really slow, and then has really heated up after the first month or so. He's solid behind the plate, has power, but is not a finished product yet. He's best not appearing at the ML level until sometime in 2024. 24yo. Williams is a 26yo who CAN CATCH, in the way a lot of guys "can catch". He's actually a solid receiver and game caller and is smart behind the plate. But injuries to his arm have limited him. He began his career as a catcher, but is primarily a DH/1B at this point who will do a good workman like job behind the plate. An injured senior signing, who missed 2020, he's a bat first player. Power and an almost 1.000 OPS says he should get a shot as a 1B/DH who can be a 3rd catcher. If something ACTUALLY CHANGES at the ML level, he could be part of a 3-some with Larnach and Wallner being promoted in some combination with Kirilloff playing more corner OF. But there's little to no room if the Twins don't actually make changes. But even at 26yo, his bat deserves a legit look. Isola is as much of a 1B/DH as he is a catcher. He's still only 24yo, but he looks like a catcher the way Williams is. Winkel and Cardenas are at AA and A+. Winkel is at AA, Cardenas is at A+. Both seem to have good eyes, but Cardenas seems to have a better one, probably a better athlete, and more pop/power potential even though we haven't seen it yet. They are both 23yo. Cossetti, also 23yo, has been promoted to A+ with Cardenas after blowing through the FSL. While he hasn't the same way so far with Cedar Rapids, he's still holding his own in his first year. Baez, 22yo, drafted last year, is almost a clone of 1st round Teel from this draft, if you just look at athleticism and numbers posted in their draft seasons. The primary difference being Teel has been a primary catcher for more than one year. Now, I'm sure there is more to the equation beyond that. But pure athleticism and hit and power ability, there is a real similarity between those two. Unfortunately, Baez has had an injury that I can't recall right now, that has slowed him this season. Just saying, he's very similar in overall talent and shouldn't be dismissed despite his slow start. 11-20, the Twins should take a shot at a catcher or two for hope and depth. But just wanted to add, they actually have an interesting collective of possible catchers in their system I'm not sure everyone recognizes. Camargo, Winkel, Cardenas, Cosseti, and Baez, are all a year to 3 from maybe being a ML catcher. How well they do depends as they're ALL 24yo or younger. And we don't have a TOP prospect there. In theory, we don't need one with Vasquez and Jeffers, but I still wouldn't ignore a catcher or two on day three. You need catchers, and you never know if lightening might strike.- 126 replies
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2023 MLB Draft Day 2 Thread
DocBauer replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Forgive me if I have some of this a little off...but he went through surgery, TJ I believe, and tried to come back this spring with really poor results. From I've gathered here and there is he will go back to Texas for his senior year to be 100% healthy, and re-establish his draft stock for next year, unless he got a much bigger than expected bonus offer to go ahead and turn pro. I actually thought someone might be creative and try something like that. I haven't seen if anyone took him yet or not as work prevented me from following the draft as I would have like to. But I wondered if $2M in the bank and turn pro...hedging any chance he ever comes back...and work with pro coaches and trainers might entice him.- 126 replies
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2023 MLB Draft Day 2 Thread
DocBauer replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I believe Witt is a junior and can/will go back to school if not selected high enough, or as a result, offered enough. He sure didn't do much after trying to come back from TJ this year. But the potential is about as high as any arm in the draft. Could he be a 3rd or 4th rounder with $ saved for a nice bonus to make hum forget about college? He could be an interesting follow today.- 126 replies
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2023 MLB Draft Day 2 Thread
DocBauer replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I keep hearing the draft is deeper on bats, shorter on pitching, and supposedly very short on quality LHP. Still, I'm going to hold out hope for a pair of LH arms today that are projectible. Think a pair of Povich types, solid, but similar room to develop. A great start to the draft. I'm liking Keaschall more the more I read. I'm hoping all the comments and belief are warranted. It's just odd to me to hear the Twins rave about him, look at good numbers, but then have the guys on the TV say he has no arm and no power and is a 2B. Obviously, what really matters is what the Twins think of him. Go Twins!- 126 replies
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I'm a little confused on this one. Thought for sure they'd grab LHP Whitman from Kent State or HS LHP Cam Johnson or OF Hack Hurley from VA Tech who they've been tied to previously. Nothing against Keaschall at all. But it's my understanding he's already moved to 2B and supposedly doesn't have the power for 3B. So not sure I'm seeing a 2B in the 2nd round at this point. Is he an over slot to save some money?? This reminds me a lot of last year's pick of Schobel.
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Thought they might pick the LH HS kid White who was selected right after. I was kind of hoping that was the target when the selection was coming up. But hard not to be thrilled with a young man and arm like Soto. 6' 5" and around 210lbs with a 95mph that touches 98 and he's only 17yo. Caught the pre-draft interview with him on MLB and he seems very mature, bright, and thoughtful. Very cool that he attended the draft last year as a junior just to share in the experience and use it for growth potential/motivation for this year. And I believe I heard he does a lot of community work as well. Admit I don't know a lot about his secondary offerings, but can't wait to learn more.
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Never bought the under slot talk as it just didn't make sense to me with how deep the draft is, and money to spend. But still, when you hear a lot of chatter, it can get you worried. I wanted Clark if Langford didn't slip through somehow because I wanted such a top CF option. Either of them. But I still love everything I've heard or read about Jenkins. High character kid with legitimate hit tool, power, defense, arm, and better than average speed. My hunch is he's going to fill out a little more, the speed will drop a little, and he'll end up in RF. Reminds me of the same profile Kirilloff had coming out of HS. Very possibly the top pick, easy top 3, most years. I think we should all be happy and excited about Jenkins.
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Nygaard Final Mock v. 3.0
DocBauer replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I hope you are wrong about any algorithm scenario, OR, they are DEAD ON with theirs. FWIW, in the recent Gleeman and the Geek podcast, Aaron stated that from some conversations he's had or heard, the Twins were not adverse to selecting a HS player 1st. They did so with Lewis, with projected outstanding results. And were wrong with Cavaco, though a later pick. And while Petty was also a HS choice, he was selected in the 20's. So I don't believe they are adverse to drafting a HS player. One thing we have to remember is that Sean Johnson is actually the head of amateur scouting. And while I'm sure Falvey and Levine are both plugged in and part of the process, especially the early picks, their primary job revolves around the Twins, and not the draft directly. Despite a few picks not turning out, a few question marks TBD, Johnson and his staff have had some pretty good drafts in recent years. And I have a hard time buying in to "college" bats first when I see Lewis, Cavaco, and Petty. Lee looks good. Sabato, a late college pick in a weird year, is an unfortunate UGH! I don't buy in to an exact pattern at this point. Enlow was a "buy high" in the 2nd round, and college arm Canterino the same. Though "plus picks" sometimes confuse me. My point being, I don't know that the Twins actually have any sort of pattern other that not drafting a college pitcher in the 1st round. I'm just hoping that in one of the best and deepest drafts in YEARS, and with one of the highest $ amounts to spend, they don't suddenly get cute/stupid and try for something that they don't have to do. When the draft is this deep, they don't have to play games. They can select BPA, and STILL play around a bit with $ on their 5th picks and beyond to free up a few $ more here and there if needed. They've done it before. The ONLY reason, considering $ and opportunity to draft ANYONE out of the proposed top 5 should be based on belief in talent and projecatability that we might not see.- 23 replies
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A Few Under-The-Radar Trade Targets for the Twins
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
As a Twins fan, I often struggle being a pessimistic optimist. (This also applies, even more so, as a Vikings fan, lol). The Twins have one of the top 3 rotations in all of MLB, even with the Mahle injury, and the start/stop/re-start of Maeda. Having Varland sitting at AAA is a HUGE luxury. My goodness, the kid was solid in 2022, and looked great his first 7 starts here in 2023 before he suddenly struggled. He's shown more than enough to show future potential though. And week to week, month to month, the pen has hung around 10-15 in MLB from my understanding despite injuries and a few disappointments. I DON'T want to waste pitching that we haven't seen in YEARS or waste an opportunity to make some noise. We all know the offense is the issue. Everyone in baseball knows the offense is the issue. But how do you correct that mid season? The system is not devoid of young talent, even though MOST of it is either in A ball, already with the Twins, or sitting at AAA waiting for opportunity, or still rehabbing from injuries. But while the system wasn't DESIMATED by the trades in 2022, we did give away a nice little group of talent. So how much are we willing to give up to add more? A really good 2022 draft, and the potential of the upcoming one, adds talent back in to the system. But how much more are we willing to give up to add for this year? I don't know that a single good bat does a lot for an offense that is struggling this poorly. So we add 2? At what cost? Julien, Kirilloff, and Lewis offer hope for the present as well as being part of the future. Unfortunately, Lewis is now gone until August. A HUGE blow! Correa and Buxton need to continue to show life and do what they are capable of, otherwise the offense continues to struggle. Role players are doing well, but can't carry the team. With even a little bit of good luck/fortune...and this team is DUE...both Stewart and Thielbar will be ready to go early August. That's HUGE for the pen. If Lopez, off his IL stint, has found some grounding, and can continue with whatever therapy he's undertaking...and I say this with concern and sensitivity...being even 80-85% of the arm we traded for, and can be, adds another quality arm for the pen. And there are still a few weeks left to audition Balazovic, Ortega, and even Sands, (putting up pretty good numbers this year in SSS), to see if someone can emerge as an option for the pen as well. I'd focus on a solid BP arm that is good, solid, proven, and there are a few in these recent threads. But I'd stop at anyone that costs a lot. Blindly faithful or optimistic, I still like a lot of what we have with just a little bit of the good fortune I mentioned. A good, inexpensive rental might be perfect. A good, solid, inexpensive veteran rental who we might re-sign this offseason. That's my #1. With the offense being what it is, I have no illusions the Twins are a WS contender. I DO BELIEVE they are better, based on talent, than their record, and the best of the ALC. As a fan, I DO BELIEVE that having that flag to fly forever is still a good thing. I DO BELIEVE that having an opening playoff round AT HOME with a chance to maybe actually win that opening round, is a good thing. Hell, winning might just invigorate ownership, the FO, the players, the system, and even the fans for 2024. I believe winning breeds confidence and a winning attitude. I DON'T want to sacrifice the future by emptying out the system for a couple of bats that can't do it all by themselves. I'd bring in that 1 solid BP piece. I'd look really hard at a veteran bat who can bring a spark. I like the Turner idea. I don't think Goldschmit from the Cards is viable for many reasons. I have no opinion on Pham as a person. But since he was also mentioned, does he come cheap? Does he fit? I still have a really hard time looking around baseball at other teams trending toward youth and doing well, and recognizing that in addition to Correa and Buxton needing to lead the way, our corner OF production is amongst the worst in MLB. A couple good weeks of Gallo and Kepler...which have been great...doesn't erase generally disappointing results from Gallo, and 3 seasons of decline from Kepler. I have no ill well to either, but when things aren't working, changes have to be made. WITHOUT giving any consistent opportunity to Larnach and Wallner, we are willing to trade prospects for corner OF rentals? This is where I have a serious disagreement with the FO. We've almost reached the point where it's just too late to make any sort of accurate decision on what the younger options might do. And that's a shame for this year, and beyond. The tragic and convoluted thing is, to bring in a corner OF bat at the deadline, or even a CF option, means moving on from someone else. But that was a move the FO didn't want to do the previous 30 days or more, to see if they might already have as good or better options. So, theoretically, they would have to move on from Gallo or Kepler at this point to add someone else, with prospect cost, in a trade. When they might have FIRST, tried what was already on hand. I DO generally like most everything the FO has done the past 7yrs. I even like most all of what they did this offseason. What I DON'T LIKE is their stubbornness to change when it's obviously not working. And that's terribly ironic in the fact that they have affected so much change throughout the entire system of the organization. Sorry I'm on a SOAPBOX at the moment, but I'm really FRUSTRATED right now with our team! We should be 10-15 games above .500 with the pitching and talent on hand! 1] Hedge your bets and bring in a solid BP that doesn't cost a lot, who you can re-sign if he doesn't have another year 2] DON'T break the prospect bank, but bring in a solid, veteran bat who can help and maybe provide a spark. 3] Time is running out. Remember you might be a patient FO in regard to offseason moves, but remember you are also an AGGRESSIVE FO for CHANGE. And when what you are doing doesn't change, change what you are doing.- 49 replies
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