DocBauer

And this all part of the conundrum of our FO, who I largely like and agree with. They seem to be very progressive, and look at the big picture, and the future, while also being just blinded to certain stats that don't measure up, and have a veteran, scholarship tendency. Despite what's right in front of their eyes, they seem obsessed with "what if" scenarios. They trust some young players, but seem afraid to remove a poorly performing veteran because he MIGHT unlock his potential, even if he's 30 or over 30. Blinders or pride, IDK. But they need to get out of their own way once in a while and keep moving forward. Being stagnant does no good.

Read the box score. Saw about 3 1/2 innings during lunch, and read the OP. From all of that, a few observations, though I know I'll get pushback on my last point: 1] Tremdous game from Ryan. Just masterful and maybe his best performance yet. Really enjoyed the breakdown during the game regarding his usuall pitch usage vs today. He, and Jeffers, and I assume the staff, knew what was working and stuck with it. That's PITCHING. I refuse to annoit any sort of ACE status for Ryan in his 2nd season, but he IS a legitimate top of the rotation arm. Kuddos! 2] I wasn't crazy about PH so early in the game. It worked out, but could have come back to bite later in the game if things turned. Was Rocco just really certain the Sox were going to ride Walter? If so, good instincts. 3] Despite battling his heel problem, Correa is playing as good defensively as I've ever seen him. The last week plus he's actually starting to look like the hitter we know he usually is. And that's pretty damn important for this team to move forward. 4] Buxton is a streaky hitter. Buxton is a veritable MONSTER when remotely healthy and in a groove. He's shown it before, and showed it again today. IF he's a full time DH going forward, he might continue to be a streaky hitter. But a generally healthy Buxton is a legitimate 25-28 doubles hitter with 32-35 HR power who will still leg out a triple or 4-6 and steal a few key bases when his knees are having a good day. His being a full time DH doesn't limit the lineup if he can remain mostly healthy. It DOES mean a deeper examination of the roster going forward and where everyone fits, mostly a permanent or semi-permanent answer at CF. But that's a different discussion for a different day. But the Twins had some pretty damn good lineups when they had Davis, Winfield, Cruz, and even Thome briefly as a full time DH. It's not Buxton at DH that is the issue, as long ad he's relatively healthy to be what he can be. It's how the REST of the lineup and position player roster is constructed that needs to be addressed.

I GET holding on to Kepler since Kirilloff and Larnach were coming off surgery and Wallner...despite a tremendous 2022...only had a half season at AAA. I think he should have been moved for "whatever", but I can still GET why he was brought back. But after signing Gallo, I absolutely would have moved Kepler during the offseason and trusted a little hope and faith in my collection of prospects to fill his spot. Period. There was even the possibility of Gordon taking on a more full time role. Additionally, there were a handful of AAAA types to give a shot to if everything fell apart that could potentially provide similar offense to the downturning Kepler. There just wasn't a "depth" problem. Further, his $8M could have been used to take a shot at a solid pen arm. If you add Pagan to the "no way back" option, they would have had about $12M to spend elsewhere, very likely the pen, for a COUPLE of shots. Considering how volatile FA BP options are, would there be any guarantee the arm, or arms, they brought on board would be great? Absolutely not. And I don't think the Twins pen has been as bad as others feel. But why Pagan vs a shot for someone better? Why trust/hope for Alcala...who I still think might turn out...vs a veteran arm who might turn out? The Twins got a gift in Stewart who looks very good as a 6-7th inning arm who has 8th inning potential. They MIGHT have gotten a smaller gift in DeLeon who might stay healthy now in the pen and reach some of his previous promise as a solid middle man. Those two help mitigate the underperformance and now injury to Alcala and Lopez. But building a roster is about utilizing ALL of your available resources, both player and payroll. They should have TRUSTED in their prospects and younger players and depth in the OF. They should have TRUSTED in their scouts to bring in a pen arm, or two, to make at least one smart addition that would work out. Instead, they kept the declining Kepler and volatile Pagan instead or allocating their resources and TRUST elsewhere. And despite some good moves, the FO had misguided blinders on in regard to both of those players. As I stated in another post, when something isn't working, and continues to not work, it's time to change things up. It's too late now to change what SHOULD have been done. Now it's about correcting mistakes mid year. That means moving on from Kepler ASAP, possibly Gallo in the near future, and probably having to add a pen arm at the deadline, unless someone else steps forward before then.

I admit to being interested in this idea. Myers was one of the RH bats I wanted signed in the offseason before they switched gears and went defense/speed with Taylor. Here is my basic problem: When something isn't working, you need to change course. And the offense didn't work on a consistent basis last year...when healthy...and isn't clicking on any sort of consistent basis this year either. It's time to change gears. And I think Myer is adding a RH version of what already isn't working for the Twins now. I've seen the Braves switch gears recently, though some of that was injury related as well, and they got dividends. I saw Cleveland run with some kids and it worked last year, not so much this year. And the aforementioned Reds are doing the same and it's starting to work there, seemingly. I don't hate Kepler by any means. I don't root against him. I'm happy when henhas a good game, gets a hit, or the occasional HR. But the proof of his dwindling production/career is obvious and right up front for everyone to see. It's time to move on and give Larnach and Waller their extended shot. Gallo, pre his recent injury, was looking very much like his former All Star self when in Texas; low AVG, but good OB, BIG power, and good defense wherever he played. But not only is he not part of 2024 and beyond, he's looked pretty bad on his return from the IL. I'm not ready to jettison him just yet. But I'm starting to seriously consider it for all the reasons previously stated. I honestly think it's time for Larnach and Wallner to just be handed the corners and see what they might turn in to. The Twins would still have the likes of Contreras and Stevens sitting in St Paul if someone got hurt, as a couple depth options. Further, call me crazy if you want, I have hopes Helman will be back soon, and might be a 2nd half RH bat and versatile player as an interesting role player. Kirilloff can also play both corner OF spots. And while NOT an OF in any way, Miranda just might be ready for another look at some point come July. AK, Julien, and Lewis are showing real life. Farmer is a really nice role player and gamer, though not necessarily any sort of daily piece. Solano has been productive in his role, even though he's not part of the future, and I don't see him going anywhere soon because he's actually doing his job, though it's as a smaller piece, role player. Correa and Buxton aren't going anywhere, obviously, and it's important to get them going or the offense might not go anywhere. I don't see a spot for Myers unless he passes through waivers and can be brought on cheap, maybe to St Paul initially on a look-see. When things aren't working, you need to make changes and go a different direction. I think that different direction is no Kepler, maybe no Gallo, and give the younger kids a shot to develop.

Love Farmer. But I don't understand him coming in to the game as a PH against a RH RP. Shouldn't Julien have hit there and then Farmer come in as a defensive replacement? The blown call in the 10th remains mind boggling to me! I mean, it's so bad that it should result in demotion or fining. (Which I know doesn't happen). I mean, the initial call was fine, bang bang play. But the reviews were very clear and concise. Is it just my imagination, or has umpiring sunk to new lows this year?

Good call! Wow! Didn't realize my day had been that difficult, lol. Corrected. Thank you!

Tony Oliva was a tremendous player who had really bad knees and had his career tragically cut short as a result. IIRC, he finished as a DH, even though he wasn't the same player. And yet, because of what he was and did, even with a shortened career, he is revered. And yet, it seems some are already writing an obituary for Buxton's career. Is there a chance his knees start to feel better by 2024 and he can be at least a part time CF? Yes, though there is no guarantee. But I don't understand the angst about him becoming a full time DH, potentially. Now, understand, I'm NOT comparing Buck to these names, but Cruz became a full time DH early in his ML career, which started late. Ortiz could barely handle 1B and moved to DH with Boston. But the player/situation I often look at is the career Molitor had. Very similar to Buxton, Molitor was a tremendous player who battled injuries on a consistent basis before eventually moving to DH. Now, I fully understand Molitor had himself a very nice career, while missing time and doing some light DH work, and didn't make the full transition to DH until he was about 35yo. I GET the difference here! But he made the transition and had several more highly productive seasons once he did so. The biggest issue with being a DH is part physical and part mental. You have to find a way to stay "in the game" and to remain "physically up" despite not playing the field. And not everyone can do it successfully. But if Byron could learn to make that adjustment, he might be a very dangerous full time DH, even though it's a shame his generational CF defense would be gone. He's always been a bit of a streaky hitter, and might always be one. But his bat remains potentially very dangerous and productive. His knees get even a little healthier no longer an OF, he still might leg out XB hits, take an extra base, even steal an important base here and there, which most DH can't do. All I'm saying is, while a terrible shame his days in CF MIGHT be over, it doesn't mean he can't be a dangerous and productive player in a DH role. He doesn't have to be some black hole in the lineup, as some seem to be portraying him. A few weeks ago, before his rib shot injury, he was on pace for 30HR, 20+ doubles, and a combined nearly 200 runs scored and RBI. (Obviously skewed a bit when subtracting HR from total runs produced). That's a hell of a DH! And not a black hole at all. Yes, he's been slumping horribly the past few weeks after getting drilled. And yes, he might always be a streaky hitter. I'm just saying, I wouldn't be writing an epitaph on his career or the Twins lineup just yet if he does, indeed, end up at DH. It does mean some re-imagining of the roster going forward that wasn't exactly anticipated. But I'm not conceding any doom or gloom just yet.

I have accepted that Balazovic is going to be a pen option for this season due to need, based on injury and some poor performances. And I'm now OK with that despite initially believing he should continue his "recovery" path in 2023 getting ready for 2024. I believe he does have the kind of stuff that could potentially really play up in the pen. And while that's disappointing based on past projections, being a really good bullpen arm is still an important role. But I still believe he should head in to 2024 with the idea of being a starter. I think there's still a solid rotation arm there if allowed to continue developing his stuff. But if he ends up as a really good pen arm, I won't be disappointed.

Taking a long look at Maeda coming and Varland going down...removing emotion from it...it makes sense to me. I think it's worth giving the veteran Maeda a look-see. And personally, I really like Varland's future a lot. I see him as a future #3, and not a 1 or 2, but I think he's shown he's got a lot of potential. But he's struggled recently and a re-set at this time might really help him get back on track. We've still got more than half a season to go. I had, briefly, wondered if the smart idea might have been letting Maeda and and Varland piggyback one another. You might get the best of both, and potentially eliminate a pen arm, or maybe a single pen arm. But the HR propensity of Varland right now probably doesn't make that work right now. In regard to Ober, I have to believe they will try to skip him either going in to, or coming out of, the break. And I do agree that at some point in the second half they will again try to skip him a time or two, worked around a day off here and there that might line up right. I can also see the St Paul shuttle bring up a SP for a game, instead of a pen arm, to create a skipped start. I'm hoping they can stretch him to a good 140 IP this year. I'm not a big fan of a 6 man rotation, though I can see the benefits of the extra day off here and there in the second half. But it depends on the pen stability as well since they'd be down to 7. If they can get Thielbar 100% to go along with the improved Jax and Moran, the surprising Stewart, and the maybe for real DeLeon, a 7 man pen might work. But again, I wonder if they'd do a true 6 man rotation or use the shuttle in some manner to simply use a 6th starter here and there instead of going with a straight 6 man.

Refsnyder as a reserve would be nice to have around. He was solid when with us, but sure wasn't great. Out if everyone else listed, Wade is the only one who's been anything close to consistent and the one guy from the whole bunch I'd like to still have. That doesn't mean I want to keep Kepler. I'm just saying it's a pretty weak competition. I can't think of anyone in any sport, or any occupation, performing below average for 3 straight years and declining further each year, but still keeping their job. Especially when there are younger, less expensive candidates with actual upside waiting in the wings.

I've stated in the last OP that there is a chance the Twins might go HS player twice. Money to spend and potential it MIGHT happen. But I agree with Dman that the FO has to look at HIT ability FIRST and power second in the early rounds. Budding power is better than extreme power with limited hit ability. I like Mathews a lot as an athlete with the ability to play anywhere. I like him better than Geloff. I'm not scared by Witt. He went through TJ already and returned to the rotation for his college team. Odds are he won't go through it again. The physical tools are there to make a next step. He might be a 1st round talent who slips just based on being "acared" his arm and control don't return. I think he might be a real steal. Not IN on Horvath unless I'm convinced he's a future 3B. I just don't trust a pick that high for a 3B unless I'm convinced he has the hands and arm to play the spot. Seen too many 3B converts to 1B and OF. I'd be in on Matthews or Witt at this spot.

So as talented and gifted as he is, as much as he's torn through AAA and looked ML ready, we might still be surprised he slumps at some point? Especially with the time he's missed? I'm a HUGE believer in Lewis. At the now "old" age of 24yo, (SERIOUS sarcasm), I think he's just a NATURAL, with a long and strong career ahead of him. But I've never thought he might not struggle a bit once he reaches the ML level. He has slumped the past couple of weeks. Even then, he's still out performered more than a couple of other bats. He's a rookie coming of so missed time playing 3B, mostly, for the first time in years. He's been solid to good there, even made a handful of great plays. I'm not the least worried about his defense at 3B as he gets more time there, even though I'm not sure it's his permanent position. Everyone struggles with the bat here and there. And I have high hopes that Miranda will find himself again and be an important bat at 3B/1B/DH. But any "hot streak" to get right has been brief. No way I'd give Lewis any sort of re-set at this point. It's way too early to he's going through anything but a slump. And way too early to say Miranda has figured it out to be promoted. I even type this as Lewis has 2 hits tonight against Boston. The OP is at least a couple weeks too early IMO. Lewis stays to work things out for now.

Repeating what I posted previously in a milb thread, and touched on here, he was a starting catcher at Clemson until he had an arm injury. I can't recall if it was TJ or a shoulder issue. But he spent his senior season as a 1B/DH. Thus, he was a later pick who signed for the $10K minimum. And the Twins did work him at catcher initially. One of the Twins pitching prospects, Winder I think, spoke about working with Williams behind the plate and pretty much raved about him. (Year or so ago). While I can only speculate, and while catchers don't have to be great athletes to play the position, he either has something athletically limiting him behind the plate, OR, his arm has just never recovered. I'm betting it's the latter, which has lead him to the transition to being a 1B/DH, who CAN catch. I LOVE to grab a piece of paper, even a napkin, and work out lineups on a consistent basis. It's my fanatical fandom, amateur GM persona. But there are always obvious restrictions. I mean, in this case, Williams is just going to fit as an OF, lol. And while I love me some prospects, and love Lee's potential, I've never seen him ready for 2023. He's always been 2024 and beyond in my personal prospectus. And there is a lingering question to be asked in the near future about the fate of Polanco, a tremendous player and one of my favorites, who's legs might just be 35yo even though the rest of him is yet to turn 30. Add in the fact that Lewis could, POTENTIALLY be a stud at 2B, CF, or either corner OF, and things get more complicated. Work with me and follow me here. The VERY BEST INF the Twins could put together, really soon, is a combination of Correa at SS, Lee and Lewis at 2B/3B, and Kirilloff at 1B. Where does that leave Julien? Well, ideally, playing almost every day at 2B/1B/DH, and MAYBE some LF. Again, this leaves no room for Polanco. What about Miranda? I had high hopes he'd cover both INF corners and DH. AK can still play some corner OF as well. And for 2024 at least, Farmer would make a hell of a great utility player. What an amazing INFIELD! BUT, despite being a bit of a late bloomer at 26yo...25yo in "prospect years" if you follow my standard covid missed year logic...Williams is showing a legitimate ML bat and hitting potential. He just might be a real 1B/DH talent who replaces Solano on the roster, even though they are very different players. But there probably isn't room for both he AND Miranda. So in theory, Williams and Miranda would be in competition for a RH power 1B/DH bat with Miranda being able to also play 3B...which might not be a big deal looking at the rest of the roster...and Williams being a functional 3rd catcher. And all of this variable roster construction still allows Lewis to maybe move to the OF, and for Kirilloff to also continue to play at least some corner OF. Nice to have so much depth and so many options right? We aren't even talking about OF talent and depth, just so many options to have one of the best INFIELDS in all of MLB, even IF we dismiss Polanco, which is NOT an easy IF. All that being said...the Buxton situation changes a TON of things, and lineup projections! I am SO TIRED of, frankly, flippant thoughts that Buxton moving to CF cures everything. Byron will probably always be a bit of a streaky hitter. But DAMN is he good and dangerous when he's on! And he's one of the best CF I've ever seen. But if his knees and hip allowed him to play CF right now, don't you think he'd be out there? And conserving him this year, maybe he'll be there for the playoffs. And maybe he'll still play a greater CF role in 2024 and beyond and he will open up the DH spot at least part time. It's so frustrating to hear demands to move him to CF tomorrow, with the expectation he will break down again, and also then hear complaints he can't be relied on. The Twins are trying to keep him healthy and productive as can be for 2023. NOBODY is saying his CF days are done. BUT...I think we all might have to accept that it might be true. From that point, it's up to Buck to FIND A ROUTINE AND ATTITUDE that ALLOWS him to be a bat only player. I don't know that anyone complained when Cruz was added as a DH only player for the Twins. I don't know that anyone complained when Molitor was brought on board years ago as a DH only. Pretty sure Boston never complained about a certain X Twin that converted to full time DH. The problem with a full time DH is it restricts your 13 man roster. But if you have a special hitter for that spot, do we care? If Buxton can "convert" mentally and physically to that role, he could be excellent. But it would mean building up the remaining 12 position players to be the best they could be, not unlike the AL for decades before the 26 man roster. And when you look at a potential lineup of names that include not only Buxton, but Lewis, Correa, Lee, Julien, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and more than a few others, the future looks pretty bright if everyone just finds their place. Unfortunately, despite roster depth and versatility, a full time DH, Buxton in theory, provides one less spot for a position player. That's bad news for a potential bat like Williams. The good news is increased versatility from the rest of the roster might allow a bat like his to find a spot. And while I wish MLB would return to the covid 28 man roster as I believe it would make more sense in today's world of MLB, Williams has a shot if he can continue to do what he's doing. If you can continue to do what he's been doing, an opportunity will open for you.

Chpettit19 hit it so perfectly, I almost feel guilty trying to add. Every single roster spot is important. You never want someone taking up the final pen or position player spot just to fill a spot. Everyone serves a purpose. That being said, pre-covid, rosters have been at 25 FOREVER, with the mad experiment/issue of teams playing with only 24 twenty something years ago. So having any sort of specialist or "do it all" player as the last man on the bench is kind of a luxury. Castro fits that role perfectly. He's not the batter we saw in May, and I think we all knew that. But he's also not probably as bad ax he's looked through the first couple of weeks of June either. He hit the ball well against Detroit well in the 1st game loss and bounced his AVG back to .250 again. (Can't believe he got thrown trying to stretch that double in to a triple)! While by no means a great hitter, he's not horrible, can swing from both sides, has some pop, generally runs the bases well, and is a real SB weapon on a team lacking speed. And to top it off, he can be plugged in just about anywhere defensively and be good to OK everywhere. I've actually been encouraged by his work in CF, though he's obviously a work in progress there. Despite being promoted too early by Detroit and never developing there, he's spent too much time at the ML level to really gain anything at the AAA level, IMO. He's better, again IMO, working with the Twins coaches. The only thing he might gain is a re-set if he badly struggles. A couple bad weeks is not really a struggle. And again, a good game against Detroit despite the baserunning mistake. The only reason to option him, really, is if/when Gordon is back, with no options, or if Helman comes back and gets on a roll and they want a close look at him instead, for whatever reason. Otherwise, I think he's pretty safe as well as valuable simply as a "play anywhere" option with pop and much needed speed. Now, if we want to really explore a position player debate about a hole, it begins and ends with Kepler, very sorry to say. Even with Larnach struggling to take hold of opportunity at this point, he's still outproducing Max and at 4yrs younger actually offers upside. Not to mention Wallner is maybe better than both. And yet, the steadily downturning Kepler is blocking opportunity for BOTH younger bats. Why? Experience and depth? Mmm, OK. So the Twins keep poor production...granted quality defense...over a pair of young players with much higher upsides that might actually improve the lineup. And if anything happens to either of them and they have to dig even deeper, they have a pair of journeymen in AAA having excellent seasons in Contreras and Stevenson. And if said worst case scenario happened, either would have to replace a .180-.190 hitter with limited power, at this point, and a .634 OPS. Even in relatively SSS over 395 ML AB, Stevenson beats Kepler's numbers this year, and pretty much what he's been going back to mid 2022. And this is ONLY if something happens to Larnach and Wallner and we have to dig deep. Oh, Kirilloff can also play corner OF. So why in the world would "depth" be any sort of real issue? Castro fills a real role on this team, unless he suddenly bottoms out, which I'm not expecting. And he is probably the last player, at this point, to be worried about as far as roster construction is concerned.

Best Randball Stu OP EVER! Hayes wanting to watch the world burn had me blurt out laughter. Only thing is...are we for certain 90% of the OP isn't factual?

This discussion isn't really that hard. 1] Even really good LH hitters will see their OPS drop 50-80 points, roughly, when facing a LH pitcher. Does that make them a useless player? No. An .800 OPS bat dropping down to a .700 ish OPS bat isn't horrible, or useless in any way. Further, not having to platoon such a player increases lineup versatility game by game by not having to platoon. 2] Are the Twins going to rest AK once in a while to be conservative regarding his surgery and recovery. Yes. OK, then you might as well rest him against LH arms to maximize his production. It's just being smart. 3] Going back to point #1, neither Kirilloff or Julien are probably EVER going to have an OPS in the high .700 range, much less .800 or more, against LH pitchers as that would make them rare and elite. But that doesn't mean they can't be valuable with a lower to mid .700 OPS. And again, you now eliminate platoon needs, for the most part. Everything about Kirilloff and Julien, bat to ball skills, approach, etc, screams great bat with lefty/lefty potential. But you never know, and they never get there if they don't get opportunity. So you give them opportunity to learn and grow and prove themselves. But it would also be stubbornly foolish to NEVER play the platoon odds or to never do so for a potential day off So yeah, let them play against LH arms. But it doesn't have to be all at once, every time.

So based on this, and how the first 5 picks probably SHOULD play out, is it possible the Twins draft a HS OF and then a HS arm next? Hmmm...interesting. And the Twins might have enough signing $ to entice a top HS arm to sign with their comp or #2 selection. I am a sucker for LHSP with upside. We got a couple in Hajjar and Povich. And Povich looks like the better of the two. I sure wouldn't draft only on handedness, but I wouldn't hate seeing the likes of Sullivan or O'Halloran on day two.

Hey Mike, just to add a little more to what Steve posted previously, IIRC, he was a senior sign following the 2018 draft out of Clemson. He moved to 1B/DH his senior year due to an arm issue that I want to say was TJ. While he's continued to catch, mixed in with some 1B/DH, he's been primary out from behind the plate the past 2 years. I don't have clarification, but I think a lot of it has to do with his arm never coming back. Someone...Winder I think??...was speaking highly of him on a radio interview last season for his knowledge and control behind the plate, but again, 2022 and this year he's basically a 1B/DH who CAN catch. He hit well initially after he was drafted, more or less tanked, (believe there might have been another small injury somewhere in there), and then make a heck of a comeback with the bat the past couple of years with power, AVG, OB%, and some great OPS numbers. Unfortunately, as good as he's looked the past 1 1/2 years, 26yo 1B/DH types aren't usually considered top prospects. I think he could hold his own at the ML level if given a shot, but he's definitely behind a few guys right now.

100%! I should have been more detailed that they STILL should have made an attempt at a FA arm that might pay off, since it's always a crap shoot. But simply, if they really and truly believed there was something there, he could have and should have begun in that role to prove himself while filling a role. Still doesn't excuse keeping him when his $3.5M could have been better spent elsewhere.

He's not going to help the Twins in 2023. Too long of a road to MLB coming off injury and getting roughly half a season in which to do so. But he can prepare for 2024. The reason he stuck at SS for as long as he did, from what I heard many month ago, was simply to get more time and more chances playing in the dirt, and just work on the basics of fielding and throwing. From there, he could take that experience and slide easily to 2B/3B, positions he's more familiar with and played in college. The Twins weren't wrong in trying to increase his power. You have to realize, working to increase power isn't about turning everyone in to a 20+ HR slugger. More power also means doubles and triples if you have speed. Low power from a hitter means pitchers can challenge more, with less fear, and even good contact and good BB rates doesn't equal production if a quality ML pitcher can just overpower you. There are very few Arraez types who have limited power and can succeed. And even he has developed a little more pop over time. You end up with Ben Revere with little or zero pop in the bat. Virtually every single team will look to make adjustments for more power to make a batter more dangerous. Doesn't mean you are trying to develop a slugger. Such is the case with Martin. If his arm holds up, or recovers well after any potential surgery, I think it's very possible he still plays 2B as well as 3B on a utility basis. Depth is a good thing. But he never has to, or should, play SS again. And he doesn't have to with Correa, Lewis, and Lee sometime in 2024. Heck, Farmer will likely still be with the Twins next year as well. Someone commented months ago from the Twins that they felt Martin to slide to the OF "tomorrow" and be just fine, and that he was a natural out there. Hence part if the reason they kept him in the INF for as long as they did. And that's where he's going to end up. I DO think he could be a RH Gordon, and that's not a bad thing. It just means he could cover 2B/3B as well as the OF, not that he'd necessarily be a "reserve", just versatile. If and when he reaches MLB, he's going to be a LF and/or CF. Not sure about RF as I believe that's going to be Larnach or Wallner, unless Lewis moves out there. Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if Royce still ends up in CF either. Is Martin going to be a starter somewhere? Potentially yes. He has the bat and OB skills and speed and athleticism to be a fine OF with top of the order potential, even with mostly doubles kind of power. (I think he has enough natural strength to settle in as a "teens" HR hitter naturally). But it's up to him to get healthy, and prove he can hit and get OB and run at the ML level. It's not like there isn't competition. He could be the Twins starting CF or LF fairly soon if his close to 2022 and AFL performance is legit. He'll play both, but other players might determine where he slots in best. He and Julien could make a hell of a 1-2 to get the offense going! He could also be a daily player who moves around. He might also end up a really good and versatile veserve. Said it before and will again, NOBODY with the Twins is ruling Buxton out of CF in the future. Even as a part timer out there. But the simple truth is his body might never allow him to be a fixture out there again and you're hoping he pulls a "Molitor" and finds ways to stay prepared and engaged to being a successful DH. That means CF might be open. I could see, potentially, Taylor brought back for 2024. I could also see someone else brought in via FA or trade for a short term solution. It's really unfortunate that BOTH Celestino and Martin had lingering injuries this year as BOTH might be solid options to be primary CF in 2024. Let's not forget that Celestino is still quite young and has some good tools. In the short time he's been at AAA...after his too soon, emergency promotion...he's raked there. The best thing that could happen for both of them is to be healthy and ready for AAA ASAP, and get ready for 2024. But I do like Martin better as a possible long term solution there. He just needs to be healthy. If he needs surgery, it doesn't eliminate him from the future, but it continues to delay and possible future.

ONLY 5? OH, I get it, just the WORST 5. Surprised he isn't at the bottom of the WPA! I thought I had heard he was the worst in the last 5yrs. Guess there's reason for optimism huh? Lol But seriously, how can virtually everyone on the outside looking in see how bad he is and those closest to can't? IF he was going to be kept...and he was...he should have been the 8th guy to pitch multiple innings to "take one for the team" here and there. Which, honestly, has seldom been needed. Shouldn't have been brought back. Should have been cut after the Jay's game. Almost anyone could be better than he's been.

The simple truth is the team we began with for 2023 is not that bad. The problem is poor performance from those on that roster, as well as some injuries, and some stubbornness from the FO that defies logic. How do you trade for a 1B when Krilloff is healthy...thank the baseball gods something went right for once...is one of your best performers and finally looking like he's ready to get his career rolling. Of course, he can play a decent corner OF...so you COULD play him more there, but.... A healthy Gallo has really done everything asked of him, and has looked just about like his past All Star level previously with poor AVG and good OB and power and production. He's back in a day or two. Despite his struggles and a bout with pneumonia, Larnach has frankly out produced Kepler, while playing good defense generally and still flashing his arm. Wallner is the Twins reigning milb hitter of the year and destroying AAA, while looking at least decent at the ML level so far, and we'd want to sacrifice MORE milb talent for an OF bat before we'd see what the prospects can do, along with Gallo? Lewis is a stud and going nowhere. Correa needs to step forward, unless he just can't, pun somewhat intended, but he's recently starting to look like that might be happening. Polanco is a great ballplayer, but right now, we just don't know if or when his legs are going to be ready. In the meantime, Julien is just getting better and better, though he's a step down defensively. Other than replacing the not great but solid and generally productive Salono with a re-snergized Miranda...which MIGHT happen...there is no INF addition that makes sense. Unless it's at 1B, and then we look at the previous 1B/OF crunch previously mentioned. The offense still has real potential. Especially if Correa is ready to take off and Buxton and Gallo come back soon to be their normal streaky but dangerous and productive selves. If you hadn't noticed, AK and Julien and Lswis are starting to lead this team. Jeffers has really improved this season. And again, Larnach has out produced Kepler. What might Wallner do? The rotation is fine. The pen is not as bad as some make it appear to be. When the offense is as poor and unpredictable as its been, ANY run allowed, or bad day, will make the pen look worse than it really is. Despite simply being human, Duran is a stud. Jax went through some early season crap, but has been looking like his normal self as of late. Moran has settled in and has been pretty damn good. Stewart has been a godsend and doesn't appear to be just a flash. He's a former top arm who went to hell and back and found a new career in this role. Same as Thielbar. But speaking of Thielbar, they need to get him RIGHT. An oblique injury can linger. Eventually, he's going to fade. But I don't think he's ready to do that. Considering the upcoming schedule, they need to get him ready for the balance of the season in July on. Let him rest and get ready for July on. Speaking of former top prospects who get healthy and adapt to a pen role, DeLeon has looked pretty good. I'm not going to trust him right now in a crucial 8th or 9th spot, but he's looking good in the middle innings. I'm NOT saying the pen is perfect. It's not. Fully healthy, WITH Thielbar eventually, even with the improvement of Jax and Moran and the surprises of Stewart and maybe DeLeon, that's a POTENTIAL 6 you MIGHT rely on. The problem is...even with a healthy Thielbar... the Twins are still holding on to Pagan for reasons only THEY seem to understand, and the standard 8th pen arm that is a rotational piece. I GET the 8th arm rotational arm, but how often have we needed it this year? Further, how long can the FO just ignore having the WORST RP in all of baseball and Twins history as the 7th man? I understand the season started with arms like Winder and Henriquez hurt who might have helped. And Sands was looking better in his role before he also got injured. And Alcala is out, but he too might be back before the year is done. But even if you want to leave the 8th spot open for "whoever" , you can't trust SOMEONE to be better than the worst RP in all of MLB for 5yrs running? Dump Pagan tomorrow, a year too late, and bring up Ortega, or give Balazovic his first ML shot out of the pen. Or, I don't know, even though we want Headrick to be the next SP in line, maybe he should be up with Thielbar out. The BEST THING the Twins could do right now, besides dumping Pagan for ANYONE, is trying to fix Lopez. The velocity and stuff is there. Maki and Suggs need to get in his head and fix it, or his mix, and get him right again. If they can do that, the entire pen changes. If not, we need to add an arm at the deadline. The bite is, even with a few bad performances from said pen, the lineup is why the Twins aren't a good a 10 games above. 500 or more. And I honestly don't know who you sacrifice in trade value to improve on what you already have if they just tweak on what's available, make the one tough call, and give a chance to what's on hand.

I thought Petty might have been a steal, and I hated to see him go. But any time you can move a HS pitcher for a proven ML SP of the quality of Gray, you make that move. This trade turns even better if Gray is re-signed, but is almost as good if he accepts the QO for 2024. If he doesn't, they get a top pick in the next draft, which is no guarantee to turn out, but a nice bonus for the 2yrs we got. Jury is still out on Miller, but the defense plays already. I don't know that I would have pushed him so hard to CR this year. No matter what he does, I wouldn't be surprised to see him start 2024 at the same level. If the Twins are patient with him...he's so damn young and malleable...they might have something. I loved trading for Mahle as I thought he was just at the right point in his career where he was ready to take the next step, especially getting out of the band box he was throwing in in Cincinnati. I didn't like moving Steer, ECS, and Hajjar to do it. And I believed they made that trade because they believed Mahle was going to make the jump that I saw, and were going to offer him an extension similar to the one Lopez got. Alas, this one is probably going to hurt in the next few years. Where I find solace is even now, I'm not sure where Steer and ECS would fit in the future plans of the Twins. Even IF Polanco isn't in any plan for the future, the Twins have Correa, Lewis, Lee, and Julien to place, PLUS Kirilloff at 1B and maybe some OF still. And even assuming a season at mostly DH for Buxton in 2023 to help his legs, he might, AT LEAST, end up with quite a bit of time at DH in the future. I'm kind of expecting/hoping at this point he follows the career path of Molitor and learns to embrace the DH spot, find the right mental/physical adaption needed, and just rake in that spot going forward. I don't think the Twins will, ultimately, "miss" having Steer or ECS, but what they will "miss" is not getting better value for them than the eventual TJ version of Mahle. The Povich trade...along with a couple low level IL signings...hurt. I thought they got a steal in Povich. But again, trading young arms so low in the system for a big arm ssemed right at the time. Unfortunately, we may lose this trade as well. Jorge Lopez was having an absolutely tremdous 1st year as a recent convert to the pen. Then, mid convert season, and worried about family matters outside his control, he was average at best post trade. I had high hopes for him to begin this season and he looked GREAT the 1st month. Since May 1st, he's been a wreck. I never expected his 2022 version to be back. It was unsustainable. But 85-90% of that would have still been excellent. The velocity and stuff is still there. I don't know if it's his mix, or a confidence issue, or mechanical. But Maki and Suggs had better figure a way to reach him and get him RIGHT, or we not only lose this trade, but the 2023 pen continues to miss an arm that could make a major difference. They seem to have gotten Jax back on track, and Moran. Now it's time to get Lopez right. The rest of the draft remains very, very interesting. Macleod has some real potential as an injury signing, but he's old enough that he has to figure it out pretty quickly. But then again, he's coming off a missed year due to TJ. Not sure what to think about Adams. Not sure he should have been pushed this far up for 2023, but I do appreciate the thought to challenge him as a college arm. He's not old, and he's flashed a little. But any 2nd half improvement needs to begin pretty soon. Festa might be a key for this whole draft. He only threw 8 innings when drafted. He then raked in 2022 at A ball, slipped a little, and then finished strong. Now, in AA, he's certainly flashed while being inconsistent. But he only recently turned 23yo and seems to have some electric stuff. Interesting to me that catchers Cardenas and Winkel were drafted in that order, but Winkel has been moved more quickly. Not that 1 round makes a big difference. Winkel hasn't shown much power yet, and hasn't set the world on fire, but makes decent contact and has done a really good job so far with BB and OB. But it's always been my understanding Cardenas has more power potential and as good of contact and OB ability. I'm guessing Winkel moving up earlier is due to defense? I feel no need to rush catchers, but Cardenas, although at a lower level, has a better BA, OB, SLG, and OPS than Winkel. With Cossetti now at CR, does Cardenas get moved up to AA soon? Nowlin is a late round blessing and mystery. He's a 22yo LH with a somewhat less than perfect build who has velocity and at least one great breaking ball who has induced 12.5K numbers in his brief milb career. His hits per are fine. His BB are not fine. I confess to not recalling exactly what he throws. He's throwing 5IP per start, which is about right for a young arm. It might be optimistic to believe he's a future SP as a 19th round pick. But if he can harness his control and secondary stuff as he moves up, why wouldn't you leave him in a rotation for now? You just never know. BUT, he just might be someone a year to two from now that might be knocking on the door as a LH arm at the ML level to make a difference in the pen along with Moran and maybe Funderburk or Headrick. The 2021 draft is going to come down, potentially, as one that brought in ML talent for the Twins via trade that is going to be a mixed bag of not getting enough for Mahle, perhaps not enough for J Lopez, though that story is not yet written, and at least 2 very good seasons of Gray. Jorge Lopez getting his act together might just make all the difference in how this draft is perceived in the future in regard to "talent lost". He gets his act together, along with the Gray addition, the whole complexion changes, despite the Mahle loss. There is a reasonable chance at this point that Festa might just be another Ober, Varland kind of rotation find, given a little more time. Forget high ceiling, how about high floor, decent ceiling, they might have a dangerous LH arm for the pen in Nowlin. And they just might find a solid ML catcher in the LH Winkel, or the more promising, IMO, of the RH Cardenas. Despite "loses" and lost opportunity, we might look back at the 2021 draft and be pretty happy with what we traded for, and what we kept and developed. Of course, we won't know for a couple of years.

Kepler is an excellent defensive RF, and was pretty good in CF, when he played there. Forgetting any metric, I don't think his defense can be disputed, and that adds value to his overall career and any Twins legacy. For his career, his OPS+ sits at exactly 100. That's exactly average. Combine that with his defense makes him a good player overall. He's been over 100 OPS+ in 2 seasons, 2019 obviously being the outlier. 2020 was also above 100+. He's had 5yrs somewhere in the 90's, which means below average at a position that is usually an offensive spot. But a little below average, combined with great defense, doesn't make him a bad player, but makes him, at best, an average to slightly better than average OVERALL player, despite being below average offensively. It's also not his fault he was often batted higher in the lineup than he should have probably been. I think that skews his perception somewhat. And despite some tame rants I've had regarding Kepler's rather obvious nosedive with the bat the past 2 1/3 seasons, and practically begging for the younger Larnach and Wallner to take his spot...both younger and with higher ceilings offensively...I've been a Kepler fan since the day he was signed. But there is little to no room to call him one of the Twins best OF simply due to longevity, good defense, and below average offense. I decided to take a moment and look at the OPS+ of several Twins OF in the past few decades. ALL of them were in the Twins OF for a minimum of 5yrs. In an attempt to be as fair as possible, I eliminated the 1st year of Denard Span as it was a SSS with a very high OPS+ of 127. And I also eliminated the first, brief appearances, of Cuddyer as they were SSS when he was still being tried out in the INF. Lawton 100 Jones 100 Span 104 Rosario 109 Cuddyer 109 Brunansky 111 Mack 132 A few of these played LF, some saw limited action in CF, and Span was a true CF. And maybe the illusive B-WAR offers Kepler points for his RF defense. But OPS+ plus indicates at least 2 long time Twins OF were evry bit as good offensively as Kepler. The other 5 ranked higher. And while Rosario was always a bit of a lightening rod concerning defensive value, his OPS+ remains greater than Kepler. But I'm not sure any of the others on this list could be described as poor defensive players when they were Twins. Matt, you are correct when you mention career reflection vs immediate relevancy changing the perspective of a player. But it's also an unequivocal fact that Kepler is on a 3yr plus downturn in his production, even including a solid 2020. And I don't think it's very debatable that his presence is blocking a pair of 4 and 5 year younger players that are much less expensive, and have higher offensive ceilings, even though they probably won't match Max's defense. But one of the top Twins OF of all time? Five plus years from the names above, who all wore Twins uniforms for at least 5 seasons seems to state, IMO at least, that Kepler might not even be in the top 10.

You can never have too much pitching. And a healthy Mahle is a pretty good rotation arm. So is Paddack, based on the early returns after he joined the Twins. But for each guy, you just don't know how they will come back. Some guys are the same. Some better than ever. And some never make it back fully. So while I have hope for Paddack in 2024 and beyond, he's no sure thing. And there's no way, right now, to predict 2025. So why not have Mahle as a possible answer/option? But repeating pretty much everyone else, the numbers have to make sense. Not sure I agree with a troubled shoulder issue in 2022, and now TJ, and paying him $5M to recover. If so, then it should shrink the 2nd year value. They can get him for 2yrs and $15M total with some IP incentives that could bump him to $17-18M, then I'm on board and the Twins should be as well. It's really not that big of a risk. But I'm also OK walking away and focusing any Mahle attention and $ elsewhere.