DocBauer

Typo

As long as he's healthy, and so far there is nothing chronic in his injuries, I have no doubts about Larnach. While his ML numbers are skewed toward the negative based on playing a few weeks fighting injury, he's look good to great. He's got a real chance to be really good in either corner for another 6-7-8 yrs. He's still only 26 and debuted, fairly well initially, at 24. 100% healthy and over his abdominal issue from last year...even if he starts the season at AAA due to roster crunch as well as possible ramp up time....same for AK, BTW...I just don't have doubts about his future. Cavaco is young enough, athletic enough, they aren't going to give up on him yet. He doesn't turn 22 until after the season starts, and it looks like SS is out of the equation, and he's done little yet to justify his draft status, but I'd still move him to CR to begin 2023. The FSL is known to be a tough hitters league. That's a good thing in regard to the idea if you can perform there, you should only do as well or better when you advance. But maybe he just needs a new/different challenge and opportunity. He's absolutely got to start showing more. But when you have an athlete that young, you don't just cut bait after a couple disappointing seasons. And he doesn't have to be protected yet by any means. BUT, if he doesn't show improvement in 2023 with this new challenge, he might simply be squeezed out by other prospects. I just don't know what to think about Sabato. He was a later 1st round picked based mostly on being a bat first 1B/DH. But I'd bet you'd have a hard time finding a scout who didn't think he would hit, based on his college career. But he just hasn't done so! I'd say he has eye problems, but he still takes a bunch of walks. Is he just too passive in his approach? Walks and OB and power in milb are great. But if you can't HIT at the milb level, what hope do you have at AAA or MLB? His selection might be debatable, but the entire 2020 draft was a stranger crap shoot than most years. But the simple truth is the player the Twins drafted has simply not been the player they got so far. His 2023 at AA is going to make or break him. Unlike Cavaco, he's not athletic, and is 2-3yrs older. He doesn't have to hit .300. But if he can't hit AT LEAST in the .240-.250 range while maintaining his power and solid OB% in 2023, I think he's done.

I had today off so fortunate circumstance allowed me to watch the game. I didn't care it was ST game #5. It was BASEBALL! It was only 1 IP, but I thought Ober looked pretty good. His FB sat at 94mph consistently, which really surprised and impressed me. The control was solid. Striking out the side was great, even if he wasn't facing the Phillies primary lineup. The pitch count was a little high, but Marsh worked him hard to open the game and saw 9-10 pitches, so that AB ran the count up a little. I was really hoping for a 2nd inning, but I understood the first game approach. I know it was his first appearance, but was disappointed in Santana. The velocity was solid, consistently between 93-95, and I saw some really nice breaking balls. But the batters had too many pitches in the zone and wasn't impressive as a result. Duran had huge velocity and looked pretty close to season ready. Threw a couple really nice splinkers. Alacala wasn't great, but looked solid. I know he was facing a collection of bench players and prospects, but Schulfer was solid in his 2 IP, 17 pitches, 13 strikes, 1 hit, no walks, no runs, 2 SO. Jeffers did what he was supposed to do. He called a solid game, looked solid behind the dish, and hit a bomb against a LHP. Just fun to watch Twins baseball again

And just to add, Polanco has stated he feels good, but he and the Twins are in agreement to give him a gradual ramp up. Some shoulder soreness for Miranda, or anyone, a week in is not unusual. SO FAR, nothing has been stated as this being an issue. (Though teams are always tight lipped). I mean, why not be extra cautious this early? Besides, he's still getting AB so I doubt it's much of an issue. I'm still frustratingly confused as to exactly what happened to Larnach in 2022. Was it a hernia? I have heard that whatever it was too a long time to heal up and for him to recover. So I believe it would have to be some sort of hernia or muscle tear. It's already been stated that like many of the 2022 walking wounded, a slow ramp up is expected. Hopefully, this latest report and day off is nothing more than just soreness and nothing to be concerned about. While, again, teams tend to be tight lipped, I've never heard anything all offseason there was concern about his readiness for 2023. And it does seem those kind of things tend to leak out at some point. Didn't mean to hijack the thread, just wanted to comment/add.

Rival for the division in 2024? Cleveland. I think Cleveland is a very good ball club. They've got good to great pitching. (There are questions about team depth vs the Twins). They've got a handful of really good position players, but have been short there for several years. I do like their signing of Bell and the addition of Zunino might be sneaky good. But the Twins held 1st place in 2022 for a good majority of the season before the team became a re-boot of MASH. And I think the team is better and deeper now than last year. So yeah, for 2024, if we are speaking about a rival as being the team to beat, it's Cleveland. If we're talking about day to day, week to week, month to month, year to year, regardless of records or divisional rankings, who is the Twins #1 rival? NO DOUBT, it's the Chicago Dirty Sox. It has been for decades now, and I don't see a change any time soon.

IMO...excluding the FO initially stating nobody was currently planned to move to the pen...it makes sense to keep him in a starting role. He's got 4 pitches and good velocity. He looked really, really good at AA in 2021 before his shoulder flared up. For NOW, I dismiss his shoulder issue as A] nothing has actually been found to be wrong with it at this point, and B] Winder has been working with the new training staff to build his arm back up. And I have to again reference the lockout last year in which players/pitchers were allowed ZERO contact with ANY team personnel. Gray and Mahle have been pretty honest/vocal about the lockout and short ST affecting them. Winder looked good early in 2022. His final WHIP wasn't bad, and his K-BB numbers were solid. All as a rookie coming off injury and the lockout. There's just no reason to move him permanently to the pen just yet. My caveat is...for Winder and just about everyone else...I want the staff to be the best and deepest it can be. And even if you have a great 6 guys in the pen, what if you struggle in the last 2 spots? In that case, virtually EVERYONE should be in play to fill out the pen. Milb is about development, and depth, but MLB is about winning. And Winder, or anyone else, could help do that and move back to the rotation in 2024. There's a few teams like the Cardinals and Ray's who have done this successfully. But for now, Winder should remain a starter.

He's been consistent in high walk numbers. But he's been equally consistent with SO and ground ball numbers. (I want to say he's also been consistent with low hard hit contact as well). He keeps walking 11% of batters, he's still very good and very effective because of his excellent other numbers and the ability to be effective against both side batters. He does find a way to be just a little more consistent and get the BB% down below 10%, he could/should be outstanding, not just very good. But I have to say, while the OP is about Moran, if Alacala is all the way back...or will be soon...and looks like his second half 2021 and very early 2022, the Twins have a PAIR of X factors that gives the pen a really, really nice top 6.

I have loved the acquisition of Farmer since the day it happened. Now, I wasn't thrilled with him as the full-time SS, but he actually provides a league average infield starter with a great bat against LHP, and has normally been around league average-ish or slightly below against RHP. That's a really outstanding utility player and well worth the $5M he's going to be paid this year. It's nice that he's still got team control as well. That provides a lot of roster security and possibilities over the next few years. And Solano provides a really solid 1yr fill-in if Farmer has to step in to an every day spot for any extended time. Lewis, Lee, and Julien will all get their shot and force their way on to the roster, but don't have to be rushed. And while there's a couple non roster guys who might provide additional opportunities at some point...27yo Helman and the still 26yo Will Castro...there's probably no need for them right now barring a huge rash of injuries. Just a very smart acquisition.

First time out, can't complain about either Lopez. ONE APPEARNACE, at least J Lopez got out of his struggle. I'm taking that as a positive. Looks like SWR struggled some. Do we even care at this point? Farmer should be smarter, even in ST, but at least he went 2 for 3. OMG, Kepler went 2 for 3! LOL What, 4 or 5 games in now? Nothing to see of importance right now. At least nobody stepped on a rake and hurt themselves. LOL. Absolutely nothing to be concerned about.

IF Gordon is actually the performer we saw in 2022...and I'm NOT saying he isn't considering his much better health now AND his previous MO of adapting at growing at each level...especially his 2nd half, I'd have him batting #1 against RHP pitching until someone better comes along. It allows Correa, Polanco, and Buxton to hit in the 2-5 spots and be productive driving in runs, Gordon to help set the table, even if he's not conventional in the spot, and drive in a few runs himself.

I hear ya, Roger. Even as someone who follows the milb system with deep interest, I still forget at times about the international signings until there is a post about them, or they come state-side. What's ironic is they have traded for a few young arms, and a couple catchers as well, that were international signings, but have also traded away more than a few such arms in deals the last couple of years. A strange dichotomy to be sure. While there is ZERO DOUBT international signings have produced some excellent arms, and quality catchers....which you didn't mention but which I've wondered about....if you take a step back and examine the 6-7yrs of the FO, an obvious pattern has developed. It's very hard to draft HS arms and protect them, much less expect them to turn out. Now, imagine doing so for a 16-18yo international kid? Same with catchers, which are almost as hard to find as an arm. MEANWHILE, you can grab the very best athletes at various other spots and feel "safer" for their future projection, even if they change positions. Again, look at who they've traded for...kids already state-side...vs kids not yet or barely come up. They've basically been playing the game of averages. And I don't think they are necessarily wrong in doing so. It's pretty smart, actually. But I do wonder if they aren't missing out here and there. If you trust your developmental system, then I would like them to "gamble" a bit more, here and there, to toss $ at an arm or two, a catcher here and there, instead of the "safe" choice of an OF and projectible SS who might move. The entire ML draft is a crapshoot to begin with, compared to other sports. But I think a "gamble" here or there on the international front would be really smart.

I have doubts Henriquez is still 155lbs as sites tend to just re-post things like height and weight based on original reports from signing or early milb days. But the kid isn't big, that's for sure. Martinez is a good comp. So are Berrios and Strotman. At his age, I'd still want to keep him as a SP for a while. While everything seems to suggest he should eventually be in the pen, maybe even a dangerous back end piece, I wouldn't just make him a reliever yet, despite his solid debut with the Twins last year. Not only might he surprise, but a little more time at AAA will allow him additional IP to just work on developing his stuff, and his approach. Unfortunately, even though his injury appears to be minor, it probably takes him out of the running for a Twins BP spot, for NOW. And the pen will PROBABLY be his destination. But nothing wrong with gaining some additional AAA experience to work on things and be a potential contributor in a few months. And potentially, a long term one.

While I think the rotation is more than capable of producing way more in the way of 5-6IP...occasionally 7....per start, there will games where a long/medium guy will be needed. I think Rocco wants one. Jax is NOT going to be that guy. He's now part of late relief, as is Thielbar. At the end of 2022, in lower leverage spots with his "new" pitches/approach, Pagan was often used for 2 IP. That's his role again to begin this year. I like some of what I've seen from Megill, and for whatever reason, nobody else available maybe, he threw a couple innings per appearance at the end of the year. But his spot in the pen is tenuous to me, and not because of his horrific 1st ST game. To me, the 8th spot in the pen is still wide open. So who else might fill that last spot, and potential role? Not Dobnak. He needs consistent IP after missing so much time. Henriquez makes a ton of sense, but is being slowed a bit right now. Same with Winder, though I don't know either is serious right now. But so young, I think they want Henriquez in the rotation at St Paul to begin the season. Sands could be a smart choice. He's healthy. He's used to multiple IP. He's got some ML experience, so he's over some of those initial "introduction" nerves. Recent signing Santana might be an option as well, and he's got enough time to ramp up still, if he can show control. Not so sure about Hoffman. I want to say he's been more of a 1IP guy in his career thus far. I wouldn't be shocked if someone like Sanchez, with ML experience, didn't have a good spring and end up in that role as a surprise that would be able to handle the spot mentally. Part of the issue is the guys who might fit best in the long/middle role are very young, or being stretched out slowly, and might be better served remaining as starters for now. So give Pagan the early role as the 2 IP middle man and keep the next best guy for the 8th and final spot and re-visit the situation a month or two in. Things might, and probably will, change by then.

7I am always cautious when I hear "fast riser", especially for a HS kid. I get that Cavaco is athletic, and, IIRC, didn't participate in a lot of camps and area code games, etc. And maybe I'm remembering incorrectly. But I wasn't crazy about his selection and the "fact riser" comments. I know he's athletic and talented. But he's exactly done WHAT since drafted to expect something more? Not trying to be harsh, but 2023 just has to be his last season to prove he actually has a future. Man, I just got done with a whole post about Sabato in another thread. (Heavy sigh) I would bet NOBODY expected this kind of poor hit tool coming out of college. He was available at 27 when selected because of being a 1B/DH player. He had a safe floor, and a ceiling that said he might be another Fred McGriff kind of producer. But so far, he just can't HIT. Power and OB% only gets you so far if you can't HIT, at least a little, at the milb level. Right now, his OPTIMAL contributions for a ML club would be as a Gallo with little or no defensive value. He needs to HIT at AA this year, turn his career around, be at least decent with the glove, and look like a Cruz Jr. type of hitter, or no way he's on the 40 man. Balazovic is a different story all together. And not just because he's a pitcher. He was a top 100 prospect coming in to 2022. He had a bad knee. He tried to pitch through it, screwed up his mechanics while compensating, even when it was right, bad stuff got in to his head, whatever, etc, etc. I doubt he or the Twins will ever say one way or another he was healthy, or not, or when. But I've never been one to dismiss a top prospect after one poor season. Stuff happens. A late surge in 2022 to look more like the arm we all thought he might be gave me confidence and hope he'd be ready for 2023 and a turnaround. And then this STUPID thing happened to begin his ST! To his credit, I've heard Jordan arrived early to work out and get ready. I've heard, as most of you have, that he was hit by someone at a bar and broke his jaw, and this is going to mess up the beginning of his 2023 for sure. No charges against Balazovic as he never threw a punch. I don't know the kid. Maybe he was being a jerk. Maybe he was defending a woman's honor. Maybe he just got sucker punched by some idiot in jail right now. Only the Twins and Balazovic know the truth. But regardless, his 2023 is off to a terrible start. IF THIS IS a maturation point in his career, it's a hard one. And if he has to spend most of 2023 at AAA to get himself right, you DON'T give up on a talented arm that could be part of the future. IF he is a victim....despite maybe being wrong place at the wrong time...you give him 2023 to get is body and head RIGHT. HOPEFULLY, he has at least a great 2nd half to put himself in place as a rotation piece going forward.

Just to be clear, the scouting department makes these choices, not the FO. At least not directly. They undoubtedly have some input, at least on top choices, but they are more focused on the ML roster and have a scouting department and assistant GM in charge of these things for a reason. That being said, I think said department has generally done a pretty good job, overall, in what they do and their various drafts. What I remember most about the 2020 draft...obviously greatly affected by covid and the shutdown of baseball everywhere except for MLB...was that it wasn't considered a deep draft, especially with so much limited information to make decisions. But while there were really ZERO can't miss, top stuff arms available, it was still considered pretty deep in viable college arms with at least some potential. Even at 27, there were some arms available that might eventually play out, and I thought the Twins would go that route. They didn't. All things considered, the 2020 draft was a much greater crapshoot than normal. At pick 27, the Twins had a choice of a college arm or prospect with potential, and standard, obvious questions, or going for a bat that just might be dynamic. I wasn't crazy about the pick, but I didn't hate it. Sabato played for a major school in a big time league and produced some great numbers. Remember, he was only a 21yo sophomore when drafted. He had a HUGE 2019 season for the Tar Heels, and was on pace for an equally great 2022 before college baseball was shut down. I won't use revisionist thinking about the pick today, without looking back at who they thought they were drafting, 1B/DH or not, he was one of the biggest and badest bats available at the time. And there is room for that kind of bat on a roster. Despite a poor BA, he's still had an OB% much higher, indicating he has some idea of the zone. And he's still shown great power. When you have that much power, and a knowledge of the zone, pitchers can't just throw "around you". Challenging you too much results in power shots. But at some point, you also have to actually show you can HIT a little bit. And Sabato hasn't shown he can do that, at this point. And that's really disappointing. He hit .344 as a Freshman, and .292 in his abbreviated Sophomore season, down some to be sure, but with an even higher OB% and higher OPS. He's still only 23yo with power and some patience. When the much debated Joey Gallo is ON, he's a .200-.220-ish hitter...which stinks...but maintains a .350-ish OB% and HUGE power which makes him dangerous, productive, and valuable, especially when you factor in quality defense. But a prospect like Sabato, he'd have to be GG caliber defensively with just as much OB and power, or more, to be considered a legitimate ML player/prospect. I think Johnson, and the scouting department really thought they drafted a certain player that just isn't the performer they thought he might become. And I wouldn't be surprised if 2020 turns out to be one of the strangest and worst drafts ever, overall. IMO, Sabato has 2023 at AA to prove he can actually HIT, while still being patient and powerful. Otherwise, he's an easy non 40 man candidate. He's been a huge, and I would say unexpected, disappointment pick thus far. Though battling some injuries in his young career, the talented Soularie has done little. Rosario has shown a little promise. Thank goodness we picked up Raya in the 4th round.

A few things about the DH. 1] Having someone with a special bat like a Cruz as a DH is worth that limited/dedicated roster spot. Otherwise, I've always been in favor of matchups, half days of rest, etc. 2] I've never felt your PRIMARY DH HAS to be a big, powerful, 30HR bat. For example, let's just say Julien is OK defensively at a couple of spots, but he is a legitimate .285/.350/.450/.800 OPS hitter with speed as well. No problem with someone like him, still young, on a good team with a good lineup, being the PRIMARY DH. 3] DH isn't for everyone. Not everyone performs well in the spot. But from what I've read about previous DH over the years, getting in a routine of just staying warm and engaged on the game and just getting USED to the role makes it easier over time. Like everyone, I don't want to see Buxton as the most frequent DH as I want him as healthy as possible to be in the field. POWER WISE, there's about 6-7 guys who can produce 20+ HR on the team with health and opportunity. We all know the names. Good chance the catching platoon could produce 20+ HR total. Even with hoped for great health for the position players, you're still going to role through a good 15-16 players used. So even if someone like Larnach or AK begin the year at AAA to ramp up, prove themselves 100%, etc, there's going to be plenty of opportunity to contribute in the field and at DH. I love the lineup with Correa and Polanco in the 2 and 3 spots, as long as Polanco is good to go, even with a gradual ramp up to get him ready. I also love a mix with those 2 and Buxton rounding out the top 4. But who bats leadoff? While he will also see time in the field and allow someone else a day off, or half day in the DH spot, I can see Gordon at DH quite a bit and hitting at #1 against RHP based not only on what he did in 2022, but how much he improved the 2nd half. He could provide an exciting hit/pop/speed combination to start things off. Possibly Farmer or Solano against LHP, with no real speed, but with the ability to just have a good overall OPS against said arms and help set the table. Remember when Garver was used as a #1 hitter against LHP to provide power/OPS? Maybe Jeffers doing the same at catcher or DH? I think there's a lot of ways to have a fairly established lineup, still play everyone, and use the DH in a really smart way.

Hard to argue what's here. Ober and Larnach being in AAA stinks, but makes sense as you just can't keep everyone, of course. And there will be opportunity for both to probably spend the majority of the season at the ML level. Larnach, in particular, might just benefit from some AAA time as his last full season was 2019. I'm very intrigued by your choice of Henriquez over Megill. I get it. I like it. I just have a feeling it's his destination to be in the pen where he might be excellent. But as young as he is, I have a hunch he's still going to be in St Paul, very possibly in the rotation still, to just get in innings and work on his stuff. I do believe the Twins should have a middle/long man in the pen. Winder looked pretty decent there to begin 2022. If healthy and ready to go, and reports are he is, would they go that route again? Or would they put him at AAA to be stretched out and re-establish himself as a SP option? The St Paul rotation potential is STACKED, though I think Sands is going to the pen soon, despite the FO saying it's not happening yet. Good, bad, right, wrong, stupid, smart, or stubborn, the FO has decided Pagan is going to be good as a 1-2 IP middle man. And it just seems they are determined to prove he can be that. And that seems to leave the younger, MAYBE better Megill as a potential odd man out if they go for that middle/long man. But again, the young Henriquez vs letting him work on his stuff more and keeping him as a rotation arm? Same with Winder. Making an immediate conversion of Sands? What about promoting Coulombe to the 40 man right away, which I doubt? And what about one of the other non roster invites having a great ST and just killing it? I think the bullpen is mostly set, but agree there is room for that 8th guy to step forward.

I really like this kid and think he's the real deal. I think the comparisons to Arraez are apropos. He's probably never going to hit like Arraez...who does...but he walks more to potentially be similar in OB% while providing more power and speed. In other words, a table setter who can also drive in runs. Unfortunately, like Arraez, there are defensive questions. The good news is, Julien has good knees, far as I know, and is young enough, athletic enough, that there remains room for improvement. I just have to believe he's got the potential to be solid at 2B, which is part of the reason the Twins played him exclusively at 2B last year. I see no reason he couldn't become a solid 1B. It is my HOPE he and his coaches will continue to work hard on his defense and find a 3rd spot for him as well. It just feels like 3B is not his spot. I'm OK with him as a special bat first 1B/2B/DH, again, like Arraez. (Betting he has more range at 2B than Arraez). But how much better is roster flexibility and opportunity if he could also be average in LF? I have little doubt he will make a ML appearance at some point this year. The "fantasy" part of me wants him to have a great ST, rake at AAA, and come up and never leave as a top of the order bat. But the reality is he's got TWO seasons of milb under his belt, no matter how tantalizing his production. As mentioned previously above, the Twins are deep and well built to actually win games and contend for the playoffs. This is not a team in rebuild mode who can just throw the doors wide open and "play the prospects be damned" the way KC or Detroit can afford to do. I believe you find room for great players. I don't, necessarily always, believe in slow promotion for the sake of old school thinking, but I also have ZERO problem with a prospect continuing to hone their skills and EARN their opportunity. Remember a year ago at this time when many were so enamored with the potential of Martin he was supposed to jump to the ML roster after ONE SEASON of milb based on prospect lists and projection? Julien is going to be just fine playing in St Paul to begin the year, doing what he does, and hopefully working really hard on his defense. I'd focus on 2B/1B, but I'd still love to see if he could be OK in LF as well.

Not trying to sound negative, but I disagree as to 2B being the most intriguing position for 2023. I am just as intrigued by Kirilloff and 1B as I am 2B. A healthy Krilloff is a potential game changer for 2023 and beyond. Even if the Twins decide to ramp him up at AAA initially...just a possibility...the kid can be a difference maker. I do think Julien should absolutely be included in the discussion here. While it's hard to determine how good/average he might ever be defensively, he will more than likely get better with repetition, not worse. I think he will end up at 1B/2B/DH, and HOPING he will prove adequate at either 3B or LF just to provide a little more roster flexibility. I don't see Martin at 2B, but could be proven wrong. I believe he's destined for the OF, with the ability to cover both 3B/2B, his primary college positions. At some point, perhaps very soon, Lee and Lewis are going to be ready. And frankly, I don't care where they play. They are both going to be good/very good, IMO. Lewis might be an excellent OF, and I'm fine with that idea. But I strongly object to any arguement that he would be wasted at 2B. While 2B is generally not considered a premium defensive position, what on earth would be wrong with having a premium defensive player there? Lewis has the potential to be a great/outstanding glove there with a premium bat. The ONLY WAY he'd be wasted at 2B would be if a substantially lesser player was taking up a position spot somewhere else, AND, the Twins had another fine defensive/offensive player available to play 2B. Now, maybe Lewis takes over 3B and Lee takes over 2B. Is Lee being wasted at 2B? You try to accumulate the most talent you can and then you find a place to play them all. Lewis wouldn't be wasted at 2B, IF that's where the Twins believe he can fit best and make the most difference. I don't like the idea of Larnach POSSIBLY being initially squeezed out of a roster spot. He's looked really good when healthy and doesn't belong at AAA. However, 2019 was his last full season. So playing every day and ready for a call up isn't such a terrible thing. Besides, how often is EVERY player healthy and on the roster? Solano provides additional, quality depth and experience, especially if Farmer were pressed in to any extended playing time for someone on the IL. And no need to rush anyone up to provide depth when you have a veteran like him available. I'm starting to think the #1 spot in the order might be manned mostly by Gordon against RHP, provided he's what we saw in 2022, and Farmer, and possibly Solano, against LHP to just be a solid bat and keep Polanco in his customary 3-4 spot in the lineup and producing runs. And speaking of Polanco, finally, I'm also in no rush to move on from him. Guy is a BALLPLAYER, and a damned good one when his legs are healthy. Despite offense being down across the league in 2022, especially early, he was one of the Twins best producers before his knee went bad. So while 2022 was an "even" year, he was still good. As long as his knee is sound...and I applaud a measured approach initially to make that happen...he can and should be vital for 2023. I have faith he's going to have a good season. But the reality is, simply, he might not be with the Twins beyond this year, or 2024. He's not old. He's good. But when younger, cheaper, and highly talented players are ready, you need to make room for them. A lot of things have to happen in order for him to be traded, but I can see it happening. I tend to doubt it though, as a healthy and productive Polanco should mean a lot to a, HOPEFULLY, winning and contending Twins team. I think he remains a Twin for 2023...and then we see what happens.

That's a great breakdown! Thanks for the information! Yes, just from a batting perspective, Gurriel would at least project as a bit better overall, assuming he comes back close to his previous career numbers after a down 2022. Can he at his age? Well, he was still pretty good in 2021, IIRC. I would have been fine adding him. But Solano had a re-birth with the bat a few years ago, offers very similar numbers, and obviously provides a great deal more versatility. In an ideal world, everyone is healthy and playing/hitting to expectation and there is no room for Solano on this team, despite being a good, solid player. I mean, I'd rather have a 100% and productive Larnach and/or Kirilloff in his place. But how often is the roster 100% healthy at any time? So solid bat, solid glove, experienced, and versatile. And if Farmer is pressed in to extended starting time at any spot, Solano is a nice utility player where the Twins don't have to make room for a AAAA player, or rush any of the kids. I good signing that I like the more I reflect on it.

I'm just taking a logical approach based on age, talent, and opportunity, Based on that, I see Rodriguez being #1. I understand just how good he is and how talented, but I just don't expect him to fly through 2023 and be on the cusp for 2024. I would love it to happen. I expect A+ to begin 2023, and finishing at AA. He will be ramping up in 2024 for his debut between AA and AAA, and might even get a late season promotion. And maybe I'm being conservative, but I'm seeing an OF of Martin, Buxton, and Larnach, no need to rush him, and he'll still have rookie status going in to 2025, pushing for a full time spot Just being practical. He's my #1. Raya and Prielipp are going to be easily in the top 5, though positioning is yet to be determined. Mercedes is probably as talented as Rodriguez, as is Salas probably. But I'm still looking at age. Either, or both, could be in the top 5. But I'm betting the #1 pick in 2023, whoever it might be, will squeeze one of them out of the top 5.

Hate repeating what I already stated in the longer thread regarding Solano, but IF everyone is 100% and ready to go opening day, which seldom happens, then AK, just needing some ramp up time, or Larnach, who wouldn't be hurt playing daily after a pair of interrupted seasons, would be the odd man out. But whether opening day or a few week, or a month in, someone always has a tweak or something happen. You seldom have your preferred or PERFECT roster set day to day, week to week. So having a 14-15 man position roster always remains somewhat fluid. So I doubt anyone gets "squeezed out" of a roster spot unless it's weeks only with good overall health. And, as I also stated previously, I'm starting to strongly consider Gordon as the #1 hitter against RHP whether playing the field or at DH. Assuming he maintains his trajectory. A solid bat with some budding power, and speed for a team that is looking to move past 2019 and play more situational ball, he could find a good fit there and allow a healthy Polanco to continue to hit in the 3-4 spots where he has been very productive.

I originally stated I didn't hate the move when it was announced, but I didn't love it. I'm now liking this move an awful lot the more I think, listen, and reflect. My apologies that I'm repeating some comments already posted above. The odds that everyone is 100% and ready to go to begin the season is pretty small. During the course of the season it's very rare that the "top 13" position players you'd like to write in with ink daily are all healthy at the same time. So having a 14-15 man position "crunch" just shouldn't be an issue. IF this happens, then Larnach is probably the guy who gets sent down. Like Ober in the rotation, he's too good to be in AAA. But having too many good players/pitchers is never a bad thing. And, as usual, these things tend to work themselves out. I am a HUGE believer in Larnach and I think he's a potential fixture for several years. But he does have an option. He played a full season in 2019, missed 2020, and looked great in '21 and '22 when healthy. So IF Larnach gets pushed out, playing daily at St Paul until he's needed to come up isn't a bad thing. Regarding any potential "blocking" of prospects, Larnach might be the only guy squeezed out initially, though Kirilloff, even if 100%, MIGHT also go to St Paul to just work on timing and get himself ramped up. Martin and Julien are great prospects, but have yet to play at AAA. Lewis won't be back until probably July. So with rosters always fluid as the season goes on, nobody is really blocked long term, and nobody has to be rushed. Lastly, I'm starting to think Gordon, assuming his growth and development continues, might just be the #1 batter against RHP, whether in the field or at DH. It would provide a potentially good bat with at least some budding power, speed, and allow a healthy Polanco to remain in the 3-4 spot to knock guys in and produce runs. And the Twins are apparently working much harder on running more, hit and run, take the extra base, and just be more aggressive in their approach. They recognize 2019 is over and done. If I took pen to napkin and just wrote out my very best roster, Solano, while a good player, wouldn't be on it. But he does provide some solid depth and versatility to raise the floor without blocking anyone because these things are always fluid. And when any/all of the younger players are ready to go, they will get their opportunity. This is a savy signing.

I hadn't thought about this idea, but I like it. On the surface, the Twins are betting on Lewis. Also on the surface, if you're Lewis, coming off a pair of knee surgeries, no matter how confident you are in yourself, there has to be a part of you that looks at a guarantee of life changing $34M in case things just "happen", or "happen again" and things just don't turn out like you dreamed/expected. And I don't think the $ numbers and terms presented here are insulting or out of place. But while I believe Lewis loves being a Twin, and wants to be part of the organization, and as much as the Twins love him and believe in him, I think he believes in himself enough that the numbers are too low to get the deal done. To get something like this done, I believe the deal would either: 1] Have more guaranteed $, probably closer to $50M ...OR... 2] Contain bonuses or escalators. And I don't necessarily mean mirroring Buxton's deal with MVP clauses and the such. And I'm not up on what is or is not allowed pertaining to the collective bargaining deal and contracts, but how about bumps in regard to games played or PA? I would think Lewis being healthy enough to meet games played and PA and bump his AAV up another $5M...for example purposes only...would thrill the Twins as it means he turns in to the healthy and productive player everyone is hoping for.

I've seen enough of Alcala to believe he's got a bright future in the Twins pen. I think his improvement to end 2021 shows that potential. As I recall, he looked pretty good in ST last year as well. But agree, coming off a mostly lost year, he's got to prove the control is back. But I'm pretty optimistic. I have to, generally, agree with the Twins philosophy of not transitioning a potential SP, like Henriquez, too early to the pen. The kid was only 22yo at AAA last year. He might just surprise in 2023 and begin to harness his stuff and surprise. And I think it's a mistake to look at his physical stature and just assume he can't be very good as a SP. We've seen a lot of shorter/smaller frame guys who turned out to be quality SP. But it's not the norm to be sure. And something about him just screams "potential big time BP arm" and I think that's where he ends up. Also agree that Moran should be in the discussion. Despite his 2022 AAA numbers not being very good, he's been outstanding in his milb career, and threw much better for the Twins than he did for the Saints. Bad luck? Who knows? But I think he's arrived and is ready. I believe Sands is the next conversion arm. Probably better velocity in the pen on shorter stints, and he's got some NASTY breaking stuff. From what I recall, Winder's worst pitch in 2022 was his FB. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. Was it just control? Was he over throwing? I think past performance would have me keeping him stretched out as a SP for now, and hope a "normal" offseason and ST will alleviate his shoulder issue, and get him back on track as a rotation option.