DocBauer

Wow! I sure didn't see that coming! I figured someone like Detroit, KC, etc.

Bundy might still sign with someone when injuries begin to happen. He can be counted on to take the ball every 5th day and throw some innings, but he's a .500 pitcher at best. Archer could be valuable as a middle bullpen arm at this point, if he wants to keep pitching. But it's my understanding he has an almost chronic issue...a hip I believe....that has really messed with him. It's probably time for him to go in to broadcasting. Sanchez's defense was better than I expected, though it's my understanding he put in a lot of work to bet better while with the Twins. And he's got a good arm. But as much divided opinion as there is on Jeffers behind the plate, the numbers seem to indicate better numbers from the staff when he was healthy enough to catch. Offensively, he got figured out a few years ago. His approach seemed to be, "see ball, swing hard at ball, and hope to drive ball." I'm sure the dead ball did him no favors, but I got tired of him hitting balls to the OF that didn't go anywhere but to a glove. With experience, power, and a solid arm, a team desperate for catching depth might still sign him. I think he'd be better off going oversees. Any thought the Twins didn't work with Sano, or want him to be good, is rather ridiculous. They invested millions of dollars in him. I ever thought he was as bad at 3B as some painted him, and thought he was a pretty decent 1B after the conversion, with the exception of a few awful plays where he was out of position or tried to run over a teammate who was calling for a ball. His bat wasn't just powerful. He had/has great bat speed through the zone. So I don't think he was slow to catch up to fastballs. He just seemed to lack "hit" ability to make enough regular contact. There is a misconception about his high K numbers. He didn't swing at everything. He often worked a count, and took more than a few BB. But he'd work counts and then become overly aggressive way too often on the high strike, or anything down and away. He just never developed a "hit" tool. I've often thought he swung way harder than he needed to, considering his natural power, and sacrificed contact that might have altered his career. We can argue all day long about conditioning and injuries, and maybe even desire to improve vs just playing the game. But he never made adjustments to his approach. And like Sanchez, someone might still take a shot at him as a bounce back candidate to play 1B/DH, but if he wants to keep playing, he's probably better served also going overseas.

I saw that. Sanchez got equally lit up in the other game. Frankly, I'm not very high on either one. Always felt they were signed simply for AAA depth and not much more. De Leon just never put it together and Sanchez lost it somewhere along the line. Sanchez did seem to rediscover himself in 2022 somewhat in the minors. I believe both are 30yo right now and their ticket back is probably embracing a pen role, though each may end up in the St Paul rotation at some point. Even then, there time in the rotation should be limited if there is good health in play at both levels. (He said crossing his fingers). Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Winder, Dobnak, Henriquez, possibly Sands, should be the primary starters, even though Jordy Blaze and Henriquez are out at the moment, and Sands may convert to the pen sooner than later. And there's going to probably be some mid season promotions from AA as well.

Agree Hoffman has a leg up on DeLeon to begin the season. While not classic middle men or long relievers, Hoffman and Pagan fill an early 2 IP role. IMO, it comes to either showing enough to warrant their roster spot. I'm hoping the FO has learned from their previous mistakes and won't stick with either too long. DeLeon has had some injuries, and has never capitalized on his stuff. But I could see him embracing a bullpen role and being an easy option to slide in to the 7th or 8th spot in the pen. I may have missed it somewhere, but does he have any options left? I'm betting not. That could have an effect at some point as the Twins like the last couple of spots to have options to run a St Paul shuttle. Ortega fits the Twins profile. Still only 26 and coming off an OK season, I was surprised the Angels let him go. With his stuff, and youth, and options, he could be a real surprise. For future consideration, I like him better than DeLeon, but the control has to be better. He has milb starting experience, but DeLeon has more time being being stretched out. So if the Twins are looking for innings, he might not fit as well. Call it a gut feeling, but I think Lawyerson has a future in this pen. Despite less than tremendous stuff, he's deceptive, and has shown the ability to get guys out in various roles. I see Lawyerson as a perfect middle man in the pen who can throw 2-4 IP as needed. In my fantasy bullpen I see him and maybe Headrick as a RH/LH pair to control the middle innings before turning things over to the back end 6 of the pen. Not necessarily now, but maybe 2024. Lawyerson needs a little more AAA time before I'm ready for him to make his mark. I see him more for next season, but he might make a contribution late this year. Interesting that Coulombe isn't included here. Is that because he's a "given" to contribute this year? I'm guessing so. This is all fluid. And its up to each pitcher to establish themselves and contribute and prove their worth. But when I step back and look long term, I see Sands, Henriquez, and even Winder as perhaps better options for the future. Ortega has a shot. Lawyerson is the one name here I like the most for fit and future contribution.

My quandary is 2 part: 1] How do I classify a player as being a BREAKOUT CANDIDATE? By that I mean, can a rookie be a breakout candidate, or are they just a rookie? And what about someone who has actually looked really good, even in SSS, but raises his game? Heck, Miranda could crank 30+ doubles a d 25 HR and would he still qualify as a breakout performer after a really nice rookie campaign? 2] And if we include rookies, what if Varland looks good in 10-12 GS, for example. Again is he a rookie who would be stil be a breakout candidate in 2024 and a potential full season? And that's just one example. The heck with it, I guess it's up to interpretation so in no particular order, here goes: 1] ALCALA: He's flashed here and there and then really put it together at the end of 2021. He had a nice 2022 ST and was good his first couple of appearances before his elbow acted up. Right now he's the 4th RH behind Duran, Lopez, and Jax. But he's going to give the Twins 4 high octane RH at the end of the pen. 2] MORAN: He's going to have to keep his BB numbers "acceptable", but I love this kid. While he's awesome against RH hitters, he's still good against LH as well. Experience is only going to make him better as the season goes along. I think he'll be solid the first half and raise his game the second half. 3] KIRILLOFF and LARNACH: I'm cheating a bit here because they are almost the same ballplayer in the exact same situation, with one the better overall OF and one destined to primarily play 1B going forward. BOTH are 1st round picks, highly regarded, with bat, power, decent OB ability, and potentially solid against LHP. And BOTH have flashed at the ML level when not hurt. Larnach is going to be one of the starting corner OF in 2024...if not before...and get serious run in 2023 as an OF/DH. Things are going to get really crowded really soon in the OF, but that's a good thing. Soreness, but not pain, indicates that Kirilloff just might be ready to fulfill all his talent and potential. To get his stroke working, and to achieve that "confidence" level in his wrist that it's OK to let it rip might take a few weeks in AAA. No problem. He's going to lay claim to being the primary 1B by June at the latest. 4] JULIEN: He's just going to be too good to keep down. Even with good health, every team is going to roll through more than 13 position players on a season. He's going to force his way in to the lineup on a regular basis pretty quickly as a 1B/2B/DH, probably at the top of the order. He's going to "Arraez" himself...funny how that's becoming almost an adjective...and provide a real spark. 5] OBER: I'm really reluctant to place Ober on this list because he was really good in 2021, was just as good, if not better, when able to pitch early and late in 2022. His numbers so far equate to a really good full year over 2 seasons, even with some IP caveats. But I include him here due to IP restrictions in 2021 and the time missed in 2022. I believe in his stuff and the changes in his routine and delivery. With rotation depth I don't know if he starts 18 games or 25. And they might still monitor his IP somewhat, but I think he establishes himself once and for all as a quality middle of the rotation starter. He's going to average at least 5 innings and throw 120 IP over 20+ starts.

Flabbergasted that Shuffield, even as an older player, could come in as a rookie at play and hit that well, even though his AAA time was as a late season fill in. I don't know if he has much of a ceiling, but who knows. Agree with Dman, perhaps slot him at AA and see what happens. Ben Ross has already gotten run due to his college and independent league numbers, so will leave him alone in regard to comments. I am always drawn to catchers. Cossetti showed a live bat in college but didn't play post draft. (1 game I think). Will the bat play? How good is his defense? I'm more intrigued by Nate Baez behind the dish. He's more athletic than your typical backstop, and didn't become a full time catcher until last year. He's just got to be rough around the edges, but there is real potential with his athleticism if he puts in the work. Stinks Ortega got hurt right away. He reminds me of a 2B version of CES, drafted the year before. The bat potential is intriguing, can he keep it up? Can he remain at 2B? I was surprised Omari Daniel signed. I also thought he'd go to college. He has to get his arm right. But he was a TOP HS SS recruit. He's going to start low in the system, naturally, but healthy and any questions about NOT going to college would have him selected at least a few rounds earlier. I'm very interested in both Zebby Matthews and Cory Lewis. Both are in the 6' 4-5" range with long frames that might not be fully developed. Both could see upticks in velocity to the mid to upper 90's. They remind me of Festa, ready to mature and emerge. The fact that Lewis seems to have a legit knuckleball, not just a gimmick, makes him even more interesting. Other than Prielipp, I like the potential of these two more than any other arm drafted. Lastly, and I'm probably being sentimental, but I'm going to be watching 18th round pick Zachary Veen closely. He has 3 pitches and only throws around 90. But a LHP who averages 10K per 9 IP and only walks 3 in 49 innings gets my attention. And he showed the same control and K rate in the Cape Cod league. Could he crank up the velocity to 93-94 maybe as a pro? Could he make it at 92 with a solid breaking ball and change? I just can't ignore the control and K rates. Might he be a solid BP arm in a few years? This draft is obviously defined by Lee and Prielipp. But there's a handful of infielders that at least offer various degrees of potential. And a couple of arms that aren't exactly longshots, but are intriguing possibilities. Really want to see one of the catchers reach their potential and Baez could surprise. Don't know that it was a great draft beyond the obvious, and it will take a few years to know the outcome, but I can see a handful of surprises here that could rival the 2019 draft. Potentially.

I'm intrigued by Oliver Ortega and he's had a solid spring. But I believe he's behind Hoffman and Coulombe based on experience, if nothing else. I'm giving the nod to Hoffman over Coulombe, grudgingly, due to the fact Hoffman has an out clause, and he fits the role of being able to throw multiple innings as a valuable middle man. With Pagan...ugh and crossed fingers...we have a pair of arms that can throw a couple innings at a time as bridge relievers. On the player side, I have to agree with chpettit19 that I don't see keeping a player on the opening day roster that you are willing to lose in April if either Polanco or AK are ready within a few weeks, or maybe even a month. In regard to White, we already have Solano and even Miranda as 1B options. I don't see a fit for White. So the last position spot has to be Garlick or Castro. I believe Gordon and Farmer will probably cover 2B while Polanco is out. That means room for Garlick as a LH masher in the OF here and there. And with Buxton spending a lot of time at DH to begin the season, as reported, Taylor will already be in the starting lineup a lot initially. But when Buxton starts playing the field more, and someone gets healthy again, Garlick may have to be passed through waivers to keep. Do the Twins risk losing him? Meanwhile, Castro, a year younger than I thought he was, offers the ability to "replace" some of Gordon's and Farmer's versatility as a super utility player. I don't believe his ST numbers are indicative of a sudden progression. But I like his milb numbers. I like his speed and some pop, switch hitting potential, and the ability to play 6 spots. When you look at his milb career and athletic ability and versatility, and still only 25yo, why on earth did Detroit give up on him so quickly? Makes ZERO sense to me! I have no illusions Castro will turn in to anything special, other than a potentially nice, well rounded utility player. But what's wrong with that? He's at the age now, 25, where many decent/solid prospects just reach the majors, or are going in to their 2nd year. But he was pushed too soon, hasn't been anything but mediocre to this point, despite solid milb production, and offers potential growth still. AND, he's still got an option. To me, the logical choice is Castro as the final 13th man to begin the season. Speed, defense, the ability to play all over, makes him the best choice as a temporary fill in for a few weeks, or a month. After that, he can be optioned down to continue to develop and provide depth. Hoffman and Castro are the choices. Everyone else is at St Paul awaiting opportunity to contribute as needed.

I don't like Pagan still on the team. BUT, I can see him performing decently in a middle role where he often throws 2 innings. He does have a rubber arm, and that can be a plus. But I love previous comments about him pitching well late in 2022 when he was in low pressure situations. Wouldn't that be true of about anyone? And maybe someone younger, cheaper, and with a future? Or how about just not one of the worst relievers in MLB the past 4yrs? Rant over. I'm not sold on Hoffman, but I am intrigued. Far too SSS to draw any conclusions, but he's got some decent raw stuff to make for a solid middle guy. Maybe more? I'd settle for a quality middle reliever for a couple innings at a time. I really like the remaining 8, especially seeing Alacala have such a good spring. There is depth at St Paul, but I'll like that depth more a month or so from now when a few sore arms are on the mound and performing.

So if I'm reading this correctly, after a pair of division championships, the Twins had a disappointing and poor 2021. And as a result, they should have traded one of their best players, Polanco, coming off the best season of his career, because adding prospects in place of him was going to make the 2022 team better? I'm sorry, but I strongly disagree. It would be one thing if the Twins were convinced it was time to go in to re-build mode. And we can argue all day long...and have...about the construction of the 2022 team, but it wasn't bad on paper despite some deficiencies. And didn't that team lead the division for over 100 days until injury wrecked it? The Twins were not in rebuild mode, therefor they kept Polanco, again, one of their best players. To suggest a crystal ball about future injury or performance prognostication is akin to twiddling thumbs.

Going to agree there is a wide variance of possible outcomes. It's always about health and performance. But that's true for EVERY team to some degree! I believe prognostication has them around 82 wins, then looking at over and under speculation. 1] Best and deepest rotation since I can remember. 2] I like the top 6 in the pen a lot. Even with Pagan still around and questions about the 8th spot, those last 2 spots are usually in flux for most all teams. There are depth options available, and if and when push comes to shove, even SP depth can be used. I think the pen is going to be pretty good. 3] Like the defense and depth and versatility of the position players. 4] Lewis and Julien are going to help, and make a difference. Julien possibly as early as May. Lewis by July. 5] A healthy Larnach and Kirilloff, even if AK needs a month or so to get fully comfortable and in a groove, can make a huge difference this year and seasons to come. 6] Fully admit relying on a pair of rebounds by Gallo and Kepler are big "IF's". Combined with Larnach and Kirilloff there are questions about the offense. But Gallo doesn't have to have a career season, just be his "Texas" self. Kepler just has to look more like his previous self, not his career 2019. And again, Larnach and AK just have to be healthy. The talent is there to be sure. So those "IF's" are not crazy to expect. 7] The new schedule doesn't bother me. It's not as if the Twins suddenly play the Dogers and Mets for 20 games. 8] It would be impossible to have as many injuries and miss as many games as the Twins did in 2022. I believe the win floor is 85. With rotation and bullpen depth, better defense, better depth, viable contributions from Gallo, Kepler, Polanco, Miranda, and Buxton, with continued development from Larnach, Kirilloff, Lewis, and Julien...92 wins is very possible. An awful lot would have to break right for more than that.

I'm very excited about the rotation and the depth. I'm not going to get in to a debate about a 6 man rotation, or moving Maeda to the pen, or any of that. We've already discussed that a ton and things will shake out one way or another. They always do. Gray, Lopez, and Ryan look ready to start the season now. I have at least a little concern about Mahle and Maeda as each has been inconsistent during ST. But I'm not worried until the season actually begins and we see questionable performance. For veteran starters, ST is often simply about getting the work in. Other times it's about trying a new pitch, a new grip, maybe even different sequencing. Sometimes, when we see a poor game or bad inning, that pitcher might be throwing a ton of a single pitch just to get it working and the results might look bad. But it's part of the process. Ober needs to remain stretched out, even if that means he does begin the year in AAA. He's too good to be there, but he's too important for the season, and the future, to suddenly begin messing with his preparation and usage. Despite his injury last year, the hard work put in during 2021 to refine his delivery seems to have paid off. His IP this year will probably still be monitored, but I'd love to see him hit the 120 mark. Having further depth in Varland and SWR is a luxury we haven't had in a very long time. With a little luck, neither will be needed for a couple of months, other than maybe for a double header. That gives them more time to ramp up and gain additional experience. And while he's been slowed this spring, I'm not forgetting about Winder even a little bit. He's as good as either of these other two, IMO. And while he's going to be a good month behind everyone else, don't be surprised to see a healthy Balazovic ready come July, or the end of. He was a top 100 prospect before 2022 and the issues with his knee. That kind of talent doesn't just go away. I'm fully expecting a solid year with a strong finish. Agree that Dobnak's future is either in the pen, or perhaps some place else. He's had a solid spring, but he's missed a lot of time and needs to pitch every 5th day for St Paul to get back to what he was previously. Not sure of his future, but wouldn't bet against him being a depth piece in 2024.

Every time I hear Lewis speak or read his comments, I'm reminded yet again about intelligence and class. I appreciate his determination and desire to play, but being fully cognizant of patience to make sure he's 100% right. Like Kirilloff, it's the long game that's important. And frankly, if he's not ready for the Twins until July, I'd still be fine with that. Wherever he ends up playing, and it could be almost anywhere, I want him for years to come.

Nothing against Acuna or DeAndre who are both potentially really good prospects. And I eagerly await to see what they, and many others, do this season. But I wouldn't have them on this list at this point. I also wouldn't have Julien anywhere other than the top 3. I also have to echo other comments as to where is Lewis? He's still a prospect ar this point and belongs on this list based on his 2022. And no Rodriguez? How is he missing? I can forgive no Mercedes simply due to the fact you have to cut the list somewhere, and apparently it's at 5. But Lewis and Rodriguez simply have to be on this list. Edit: I've got to see Martin healthy and continuing where he left off in the AFL before I'd list him.

100% Once a top prospect reaches AA and performs that well, and throw in the AFL results which are AA PLUS similar...not to mention ST and the WBC...he is, indeed, only a phone call away. A lot of AA players do jump, or jump soon after. I'm not comparing him as a player, but I recall Knoblauch jumping straight to MLB from AA. I agree, sooner rather than later. He just might "Arraez" to the Twins, which is becoming is fast becoming an adverb in Twins dialect, lol.

Hoping like crazy Polanco's tendinitis is manageable and he's ready a couple games to a couple weeks after the start of the season. Super excited to see Kirilloff playing games, hitting the ball HARD, and getting ready. NO PROBLEM if he takes a month to get confident and comfortable as the long game with him is what's important. Gordon and Farmer play 2B in the short term. HUGE fan and believer in Julien, and he's had a great ST and WBC. But I also have zero problem with him starting the year at St Paul. Especially if the Twins really feel Polanco will be ready shortly after the season starts. Larnach will play LF against RHP to start, Gallo at 1B, sharing time with Salono, and moving back to LF against LHP, where he's been generally equally splits against. Taylor also figures in. This is where the depth created comes in to play. The question is who becomes the 13th position player? Is it Garlick for a powerful RH bat? Or the young, experienced, versatile Castro coming off a great ST but with some unsustainable numbers? Julien remains that phone call away, but do they make that call at this point? Especially if it might be only for a couple of weeks? ONE spot to fill, even temporarily, that offers some interest. It's the 13 man staff that has my attention right now. As long as I've followed baseball, one thing I've learned is to never pay great attention to ST numbers. And that might be most true for pitchers. How many times have we questioned ST results...never understanding some pitchers were simply stretching themselves out, or working on a pitch or two...only to see the bell ring for the regular season and they looked like what we hoped for and expected? Right now, are we worried about Mahle, who looked good early and had high velocity? Or has he been working on his new slider and experimenting with different grips and offerings? Same with Maeda. His early velocity was really close to career norms. He throws 6 different pitches. Is he, the veteran that he is, just stretching put after so much lost time and "playing around" with all of his offerings? Or do we need to be worried about actual results? And the truth is, only the Twins know. But it remains hard for us, as outside observers, to know where the rubber meets the road at this point. It PAINS me to say Pagan is a given to make the pen opening day because I just think keeping him was a mistake. MAYBE, he's a 2 inning middle reliever we can count on for middle innings. Alcala has looked exactly as hoped. What more does Moran have to do to prove he's part of the pen now, and the future? So that leaves ONE spot on a 13 man staff, barring injury or another Pagan implosion too many. I don't buy in to the piggy back idea. What happens if Maeda, for example, pitches well for 4-5 innings in a close game, and is ready to be pulled, and a couple of quality LH batters are up next? Does Ober come in? Or do you turn toward Thielbar or Moran at that point? I'm OK with a 6 man rotation if you're skipping a start here and there for someone still ramping up and getting 100% right, and the "skipped" starter either gets in his bullpen sessions, and/or, comes in to a game to throw a couple middle innings. That's how a 6 man rotation should work, IMO. To be more direct, let's assume Mahle and Maeda look good, but are still ramping up and working on a couple things. At this point, as good as he looks, Ober is just not a 6 PLUS pitcher. Gray, Lopez, and Ryan are the "stalwarts". So the pen STILL has 8 arms as the "off" starter gets real time throws instead of a pen. Just spitballing here as to how to complete a 13 man staff with the best arms. I think there's a reasonable chance someone stays behind with an IL stint due to mystery injury or the proverbial "tired arm" syndrome to begin the season. At that point, who fills the 8th man spot in the pen? Winder and Henriquez, unfortunately, or out for now. I'm not sure Sands is ready, but could be a surprise. With an open 40 man spot right now, do the Twins go with Hoffman, Coloumbe, DeLeon, or Ortega? They seem to be the most likely candidates. And each offers something different. Hoffman offers late career potential and with past starting experience, a middle man with Pagan. Is it possible DeLeon has finally arrived at the Twins to be a solid middle reliever? Coloumbe has been really good in his tenure as a Twin. Why not a 3rd LH in the pen? Ortega was a surprise addition as he actually pitched pretty well with the lowly Angels previously. The 13th man for the staff is as interesting as the 13th man position player. And BOTH could be gone a month in to the season as health gets better. And it's a LONG season. But even with injuries and speculation, and some possibly quick roster changes, it sure is nice to realize that the opening day roster really comes down to the 25th and 26th possibilities rather than trying to figure out how they cover spots.

Gordon plays 2B against RHP and Farmer starts against LHP. Farmer could also be a late inning defensive replacement for Gordon if they feel that's the right move. Gallo starts at 1B against RHP, and Solano starts against LHP, but can also play 2B in place of Farmer as needed. Larnach plays LF against RHP, and Gallo slides back to LF against RHP since he's generally been neutral against both sides. Taylor figures in here and there as well. This is why the Twins built the roster with the depth they currently have. For the short term, it robs the Twins of their depth until Polanco, and even Kirilloff, are ready. But, potentially, Polanco could be ready a couple weeks in to the season. AK, maybe even a little longer just so he can get 100% confident and ready. Julien is a phone call away. But no matter how good he looks, he still hasn't played a game above AA. Nothing wrong with him begining the year for St Paul. But if Polanco is on the IL to begin the season, along with Kirilloff, there's room for 1 more add. The question is who might be the extra player for the short term? Is it Garlick as a LHP masher? Is is Castro after having a great ST...even with unsustainable numbers...but experience and position versatility, but experience and talent at only 26yo still? Whoever they choose might have to pass through waivers in order to keep when Polanco is healthy and ready to go. And that stinks. But it's also why the roster was built with this much depth.

But then again, with only a handful if innings so far, and every team trying to set their roster by the 28th/29th, is it prudent of him to take that first opt out? Or is it smarter to stick with the Twins after being a late sign and go to AAA to begin the season? Just tossing it out there. Megill seems to have pitched much better since his initial nightmare appearance, but he hasn't exactly been destroying people. I see him as an easy depth piece at St Paul and not making the 40 man. With Santana gone, that frees up a spot for, yes, potentially Hoffmann. But Coloumbe is showing once again he can be valuable in a middle innings role. Ortega has looked pretty impressive from what I've seen so far. So while Hoffman is definitely a candidate, I don't know that's he's the best candidate. But he might be the smart choice, letting him audition and hopefully perform well while the others wait in AAA for opportunity. Bu I'm certainly not writing his name in ink at this point.

I guess I had focused more on re-sign possibilities and possible retention options via the QO I hadn't really thought in detail about potential draft implications. What might be an issue, in the case of the proposed scenario, is the draft capital to sign everyone. Selecting 5th automatically raises the Twins draft pool for this year. But what happens if they add another 2 or 3 high selections? Might be hard to manage. As far as how the bug 4 play out? Maeda is a relatively inexpensive 1-2yr sign for depth and another veteran presence. But I don't think the Twins want him at $20M, even for a single year. If Gallo returns to form, he's an easy choice to offer the QO for. The Twins SHOULD have a replacement in Larnach already on hand, and Wallner, and Gallo would surely reject the offer in favor of a longer term deal elsewhere. Mahle and Gray are obvious extension candidates. Will it happen and which one is not the point right now. But if one, or both, aren't going to be re-signed, then a 1yr QO makes complete sense. It's possible someone could accept it, and that would be fine. Rejection of said brings a pick. Hopefully, we get a re-sign of Gray or Mahle, and then a rejected offer from the other and Gallo.

The FO built a 14 man player roster. The crux, barring injury, was always Kirilloff. To be brief, his surgery is pretty advanced for a professional ballplayer. The fact that Kirk Gibbson had it 30yrs ago is interesting, but also provides perspective that medical technology has surely improved since then, along with rehab. To me, Kirilloff is on the Lewis wait train. The future is more important than the now. AK is probably a few cars ahead of Lewis. Soreness and not pain is a GOOD THING! I always hoped for the best, but figured it would take him a little more time to ramp up than we wanted. So a month or so to get comfortable at AAA is not a bad thing. The long game is what's important. There's nothing wrong with Gallo playing 1B and Larnach in the OF. Nothing wrong with Solano playing some 1B against LH pitching. Julien is going to force his way on the roster sooner than later. Things might be fluid at 1B for a few weeks, or a month, but it's going to shake out pretty quickly.

Personally, I view LF and RF as nearly identical positions... despite the tremendous individual breakdown work by Nick...simply because other than Gordon, and Kepler being a RF mainstay, virtually everyone else on the roster and future possibles all figure in to either or both spots. I make that point for this year, as well as 2024 and beyond. But I digress somewhat. How crazy is it that, offensively speaking, our OF corners could be huge weak spots, OR, highly productive? A return to previous form by Gallo...great as recently as 2021...and a rebound by Kepler, combined with the potential of Larnach, and Wallner, could make both corner spots dangerous. And I'm not even including the solid Gordon and Taylor as nice pieces to fill in with. I do believe Kepler was shopped. And that makes sense with Gallo on board, and the depth available. I believe there was probably real interest, but not enough offered in return vs keeping him, betting on a rebound, and keeping his veteran presence as insurance for a healthy Larnach and still developing Wallner. FWIW, I was OK moving on from Kepler and letting Larnach and Wallner get their shot. I still am. You HAVE to trust in your top prospects at some point and let them play, take a few lumps, and let them figure it out. I think Larnach is going to be damn good, if he's 100%. The good news is both of his previous injuries aren't related and don't appear chronic at this point. Wallner has improved in almost every single category over the past couple of years. But his defense could use some polish, and he's only got about half a season at AAA, so a little more seasoning to hone rough edges is not a bad thing. So why not keep Kepler for now instead of moving him for low value? Larnach is a much better defender than some gave credit for on his way up, and has a gun for an arm. He plays in either corner with hit ability and power and potentially fairly even splits. Wallner moves and runs very well for a large human being and has a cannon for an arm with tremdous power. Despite continued development in virtually every category, I see Wallner as the better power bat, and Larnach as the better hitter. It's not hard to see them both in some configuration as the corner OF tomorrow, with assistance and depth from Gordon, Martin, and Celestino. Lewis MIGHT figure in there as well, but I believe he will settle in on the dirt with Lee in some combination along with Correa. I like Martin, potentially, eventually, as a super utility player at multiple positions. Anyone else is far enough away, for now, that I'm not going to conjecture at this point. So I basically did reverse order and looked at depth and the future first. How about Kepler NOW? I understand all the data points that say he's a better hitter than he should be. But at some point, data is just that, and reality on the field is the ultimate proof. He might hit the ball hard, but he doesn't do so often enough to make a difference. Some of the data, and simple eye test, shows way too many weak liners and ground balls. Kepler makes good contact, doesn't strike out a ton, will take some walks, and has power in his very sweet swing. So why has his contact been so generally weak and unproductive the last 2yrs? I understand he tries to hit the other way. And I believe the lack of extreme shifts might help him. But at some point, even as a natural pull hitter, his athleticism and power and sweet swing should have him driving the ball SOMEWHERE other than weak flys and grounders. And I say all of this as a long term fan of his. SOMETHING has been missing in his approach and results, juiced ball or not. Does he not "know" who he is as a hitter? Is he trying too damn hard to be perfect as a hitter? It's up to Popkins and Hernandez to help him figure that out. I love his defense. But his career BA sits at .232. Career OB is .317. Career OPS is .744 with career highs of .855 in 2019 and .760 in 2020. He's never been above .737 in the rest of his career. Of course, he's also been much better against RHP, not surprising. And maybe he's just best as an outstanding defensive player who should sit against RHP as much as possible and be a lower order batter, as I've stated more than a few times, where he could be dangerous. And just being really real for a moment, there aren't that many LH hitters who have great success, or good/moderate success against LHP. There is no way to simply platoon every position in baseball. I mean, come on, every player is going to face same side pitching. And it's perfectly fine to bat a LH hitter higher in the order against opposite handedness, and place them lower in the order against the same to begin a game. That's just baseball, and things change as the game progresses and changes are made. But there is a difference between not being very good against a LH pitcher, in Kepler's case, vs not raking or being at least very good against opposite arms. For what ST stats are worth, it appears Max is off to a good start for 2023. Again, I'm a fan and love his defense. And maybe, even at 30yo, all that talent and potential blooms some and he hits .250 ish with 20+ HR and 30+ HR. That would mean he was actually DRIVING the ball again. And with those numbers, and his defense, he's an easy "bring back" with his 2024 option, even if it meant a trade because the other young talent staked their claim for the future during 2023.

A series of thoughts, and pretty much echoing a few already shared here. 1} Not crazy about a 6 man rotation. In today's game, the 8 man pen is a reality. And it doesn't mean your starters can't give you a consistent 6 IP. But even then, the days of 200 IP and 32 GS just aren't happening any longer. 2} Even if the proposed 5 starters have good, healthy seasons, there are going to be mild injuries, and possibly even a "tired arm" injury stint for someone like Maeda to monitor innings. There will be plenty of games for a 6th arm to start. 3} Ober, with his size, and his past injury situation that is hopefully mitigated now with all the mechanical adjustments made in 2021, is not a good fit for the pen at all. For one thing, he won't be stretched out when you need him in the rotation. And they ARE going to need him at some point. I seriously doubt Ober is a good candidate to get warmed up quickly and head to the mound when needed either. He would need a starter's type of warm up, so now you have to predict when to use him before you know for sure you need. (If that makes sense). 4} I don't want Ober at St Paul either. Nor do the Twins. He's way too good to be there, and he's likely part of the future, as well as the present. But his career and season are not hurt in any way if he spends 4-6 weeks at AAA, if even that long, remaining stretched out and ready to go. 5} I do have to admit that the piggy backing idea does actually work, should the Twins feel inclined to go that direction. One starts, goes 4-5 innings, and the other comes in after to potentially finish off the game, or at least get to the 9th, for instance. This helps keep arms stretched out, and mitigates the loss of the 8th reliever since the piggy back games generally won't need more than 1 or 2 arms beyond Maeda/Ober. But I wonder...do you alternate the starter/piggy back every other time out? I've noticed that when you have depth like this, too many guys for one spot/area, it simply has a way of working out. Even should they begin the season with a 6 man, how long would it last before someone pulled something, or had a blister, or cracked a nail, or whatever? It's going to work itself out.

Thank you! LOL I was posting at work and was rushed.

Still can't comprehend how it took the FO this long to cone up with a viable plan to back up Buxton in CF. And boy does it look good now that they've done it. I'm not sure high end role player move I like best, Farmer or Taylor. Both excellent moves that are greatly underappreciated. Gallo can also play a solid CF. Gordon is pretty decent there. Celestino should get most of the season at AAA to get his game and confidence back together after being so rushed, using what he's experienced thus far as a learning tool. And Martin's future is almost certainly as a LF/CF. That's a lot of depth now, some for the immediate future, and a few youngsters in the low minors that are part of the more distant future. Right now, it looks like they got it right.

I believe Kirilloff begins the year on the IL and keeps getting work in, then moves to St Paul. Hopefully, he's feeling great and ready to go by May. Larnach takes the final spot and plays both OF corners and does some DH as well. This allows Gallo to help cover some 1B as well. (Wallner is in reserve at St Paul and working to polish his defense a little more.) Whether I/we like it or not, I still expect Pagan to begin the season in the pen in a middle relief role. They trusted him enough to the tune of $3.5M so he's going to get some regular season leash. (ugh) That leaves one final roster spot to figure out, barring injury. It might be Megill as he's on the 40 man, but he doesn't have it locked up by any means. I'd like to say whoever looks the best gets that last job. That means someone like Coloumbe or Ortega might be added to the 40 man with a 60 man move. But my gut feeling is they will want to hold off on another 60 man move for now, and give that last spot in the pen to someone rostered. Right now, with a few nagging injuries, it's got to be Sands or Megill. Still a couple of weeks for someone to step forward.

Missing from this list: Camargo and 2022 draft choice Andrew Cossetti. AAA is overloaded with catchers, even forgetting Bechtold and Williams can also play there. Wolters and Greiner provide some actual ML experience as a #3 catcher, if and when needed. They also provide that experience for the staff. The funny thing about the younger Sisco is, his LH bat wasn't bad at all through 2019. And then the wheels came off. But I think that's why he's still around after missing all of 2020 and a chunk of 2022. Banuelos's defense is so well regarded he's been a long stay in camp each of the past couple of seasons. But he's never hit, is probably never going to hit, and I don't know how St Paul manages 4 catchers, even with reserve lists and IL. At AA, Isola has an interesting bat, especially for a catcher. But even though catchers will play 1B and DH, and occasionally other spots, he's spent less time at catcher than "other" spots. He's got to show he can actually be a viable catcher prospect really soon, or he's only going to ever be a useful journeyman. The bat isn't special enough to play elsewhere. Schmidt has a ways to go, but might offer more long term potential than Isola. The GUY at AA is Camargo. He's got some power and decent bat potential to go along with, reportedly, solid skills behind the plate. A ball is a collection of Winkel, Cardenas, Tatum, Baez, Cossetti, and Oliver. Winked, Cardenas, and Tatum were all selected in 2021 and have barely played a little over a full milb season. Tatum, so far, is way behind Winkel and Cardenas in production. From the 2022 draft, Baez has all of 19 games and Cossetti one. Oliver looks very interesting if his 2022 production is real maturation. Super young, he's obviously pretty athletic and worth watching and keeping behind the plate for the foreseeable future. RANKED AS PROSPECTS, IMO: 1] CARDENAS: Good glove, good eye, contact ability, power potential. 2] WINKEL: His LH bat shows a little power and decent hit tool. He jumped to A+ after only 21 games in 2021 after being drafted. Not sure he's ready for AA to begin the year, but should see him there at some point. Think Cardenas has more bat potential. 3] BAEZ: He's athletic enough to have played multiple spots in college. Became a full time catcher late. Unpolished, but athleticism screams potential if he puts in the work on both. 4A] CAMARGO: He's started to show power the past 2yrs and had his best season in 2022 as a hitter, though his numbers slid following his promotion to AA, where he spent most of the season. He should begin there again in 2023 with hopes of reaching AAA at some point soon. I'm thinking career backup with defense and a solid bat and power for that role. 4B] COSSETTI: Seeing virtually zero time in 2022 after being drafted, his college bat tells me he's got offensive potential to hit some and provide power. How good can he be behind the plate? But bat potential and hope for defense places him here. 6] It PAINS ME to place the TD short season hitter of the past year this low. But I just can't right now. Still only 21yo and coming off a tremendous 2022 at FCL, I'm just not sure who he is yet. He's athletic to be sure. And I'm sure he's filled out from the 175lbs of his listed milb weight by now. But he started more games in the OF than catcher 2-1. So is he REALLY a catching prospect going forward? I understand all milb catchers play other spots, but I'd have to see him carry his bat to Ft Myers A ball in 2023 and actually CATCH on a consistent basis before I could think about ranking him any higher than this. Everyone else is a similar "show me you can actually catch on a regular basis as well as hit".