DocBauer

Two quick points here: 1] The Twins just aren't done making moves yet. So I believe the OP is 2-3 weeks early. 2] I don't feel "this winter" is accurate as I believe the topic really should be "have the Twins improved over the opening day roster from last year? Again, with the caveat, the Twins aren't done yet. That being said up front, they are ABSOLUTELY better than the opening day 2022 roster. While "return to good health" almost dominates any further discussion, having Mahle and Maeda over Bundy and Archer is a huge improvement. Then, we add Winder, Varland, and SWR to the discussion after some ML experience and continued growth and experience and the rotation is seemingly in much better hands. Duran is now a proven stud. Lopez doesn't have to maintain the incredible and almost impossible 1st half he had with Baltimore to be very good. Jax really found a home in the pen and has room to grow. Moran, while a little inconsistent, flashed and showed he can be part of the pen in a good and potentially excellent way if he can harness/develop his slider more. This time last year, Duran, Jax, and Moran were all question marks. I'm seeing a path where Sands, Henriquez, Winder, Dobnak, even Varland and SWR could all be possibilities at some point as middle/long men. (A couple milb signings MIGHT surprise and do well in this role as well). Based on his talent and 2nd half of 2021...and a few brief glimpses early in 2022...I think Alcala could end up making a big difference. I would attempt a pretty bad and humorous gig if the Twins would drop another $6/7-13/14M by add one or two available arms to the pen to NOT have to count on a couple of the young arms right out of the gate...and be rid of Pagan for whatever they can get for him. But I like this pen better than the one that began 2022. Is the infield better? I liked Urshela a lot, but see the reasoning for moving on. IMO, Miranda will be better, and OK, at 3B with a better bat. Overall push there. But Farmer provides a nice role player we didn't really have last year. Arraez did a fine job at 1B. A healthy Polaco is a very, very good ballplayer. IF Kirilloff is really ready to go...from day one or not...he really changes the complexion of the infield. (While helping in the OF as well). Overall, the infield is no worse, but maybe better with Farmer on hand, and definitely better with a healthy AK. Sanchez was not as bad as I expected defensively. But his offense left a ton to be desired. I think Vasquez IS an improvement due to defense and game calling. He also provides "help" and experience for Jeffers the way Castro did for Garver a few years ago. Hopefully, like Garver before him, Jeffers can relax a little bit, continue to grow in his game, and start to reach his offensive potential with less pressure and build on his 500 career AB. Right now, TODAY, I see little to no improvement in the OF. I see POTENTIAL improvement in the OF BEYOND just better health in regard to Larnach, AK, and even Buxton, BUT, don't see IMMEDIATE improvement. I'm not sold on Gallo. But numbers are numbers over several seasons. Gallo is a different hitter than Kepler. But despite his horrendous 2022, Gallo still has a higher OB%! SLG%, and career OPS over Kepler. (50 point advantage in OPS). And Gallo is an excellent defender. He's AT LEAST a slight improvement over Max if we get the previous 2017-2021 version of him. There's a gamble there, to be sure, but a potential payoff. But for the 3rd year in a row, where is the RH option to just balance the OF? Martin isn't ready. Celestino has been pushed twice to the ML club when nit ready and could really use time to round off some rough edges and fully develop his potential. And Garlick...at least temporarily removed from the roster...has been lone RH bat with power and production WHEN HEALTHY enough to do so on a 25-35% opportunity to face LHP. Is it really so hard to find a single, decent, RH OF and bat who can play decent defense, be good against LHP, and not just embarrass themselves against RHP once in a while? I DO think the roster, right NOW, is better than the one that began 2022. But I also say, again, we're going to have this exact same OP when ST begins and some additional changes have been made. Just crossing my fingers until then those moves included a decent RH bat option, one more quality pen arm, and a "wait and see" attitude as to whether a SP option is made that actually makes sense for potential improvement.

While NOTHING is guaranteed, I've stated more than a few times that the "forgotten" Paddack might have us screaming for an extension come some point in 2024. The youth and talent is there. The early results, SSS given in 2022 with the Twins, seem to indicate the FO wasn't exactly stupid in their desire to add him. They've liked him for a while. I just didn't think they would do an extension this early. But in the long run, the $ is virtually negligible if they're wrong. And if they are right, they will have an arm that will "hopefully" toss a few IP at the end of 2023 to shake off rust. And again, if right, he might just be a mainstay in 2024, possibly ramping up and getting better and better. And also be locked up for 2025. I 100% believe the Twins will lock up at least 1 of Gray or Mahle for 2024 and beyond. My bet is Mahle, who I'm betting only had a "tired" arm from trying to do too much after a weird offseason, as he's stated himself. But the Paddack deal is "cheap" by ML standards for a solid/quality SP.

I had some small hope Leon would come back as a AAA catcher on a milb deal. But I can't be disappointed about the addition of Wolters. He's basically a younger version of Leon. Sisco, IIRC, was with St Paul last year but had some injury issues and barely played. As stated, the shine has dulled to black for a former top prospect. But he's been around, still has some talent, and who knows if a light will suddenly turns on and he becomes a solid #3 option. Really happy Carmago stuck with the Twins. I believe he will begin 2023 at AA, but I think he's on an escalator, though I don't know what floor he will step out on. I'm thinking he's a "Butera" with more power. Really, really wish Banuelos could learn to hit even a little. He's been to ST now at least twice because of his game calling and defense. Williams being included surprises me. Is he a AAA 1B, or is he a catcher? I've heard he's very smart behind the plate. And I get milb catchers spend time at other positions, especially if they have a good bat, to keep them in the lineup. But he's spent so much more time at other positions, I have to believe his shoulder in college just never took hold and he's REALLY a 1B/DH who CAN catch. Very surprised Isola wasn't invited. I think he's a similar player to Williams. The TOP catching prospects in the system are all in A ball. And there are about 5-6 of them. Carmago is an OK prospect. That makes the development of Jeffers and the signing of Vasquez that more important. What is somewhat humorous is the projected AAA roster has 6 guys who can catch. Castro could be a surprise as a super utility guy. He's nothing special. He doesn't move the needle. But he's young enough, has flashed briefly, that you have to wonder if MAYBE a light comes on and he turns in to a solid ML utility player. Other than that, a couple RP in their 26-ish years with potential and options who might develop, and can provide a couple decent arms, at worst, to ride the shuttle between St Paul and the parent club. And that's not a bad thing. But I have to admit, I am VERY intrigued by Sisk and Laweryson and parts they MIGHT play in 2023 and beyond. All in all, not a bad invite list. But I would prefer the FO say "screw it" and bump the payroll to $160M plus and add another RP and RH bat. But I don't think they are done yet.

I've seen enough of Moran to be impressed, over and beyond his AAA numbers, which I can't explain. I think he's a legit 6th-7th inning option who can be solid. Now, if he can tweak his slider a little bit, maybe it becomes more of a slurve...and the Twins are generally very good at working on sliders and adaptations of such...he could be a real weapon by being stronger against LH hitters. Good to serious BP weapon is tweaking that 3rd offering. I've been championing the idea of Chaffin, or Hand, as another LH BP option to work with Thielbar. And I still think that would be smart. But I think Moran is a keeper.

I always believe in advancing your roster, tweaking your roster, etc, to put together the best TEAM together you can. And yes, trades of talent is a great way to add to or augment your roster. But, unfortunately, if you take a step back and REALLY LOOK at the Twins roster as of now, where is the glaring hole? FA still offers a couple solid RP options and the Twins should jump at the chance to add at least ONE to deepen the pen and not just trust in a full return to form/potential of Alcala. Fulmer being brought back makes so much sense! I think Moran has a bright future, but he's still better against RH bats. How about a 1yr on Hand? That's $ spent, and no trades, to deepen the pen and make the whole staff better. And speaking of the staff, rotation in particular, what is the obsession with adding Lopez, with 2yrs of control? He's young, talented, and MIGHT be on the precipice of being better. But is he better than what we have right now? Is he better than a healthy Gray and Mahle? I am NOT opposed to adding a RP or 2 if the $ work out. And this team ABSOLUTELY needs another RH bat despite Correa being back. And I'm NOT opposed to trading for a quality young SP to add with control. The OF is too crowded. If we move Kepler and Gallo is not the player he was the previous 6yrs before 2022, we run a real risk. But when do we not trust in Larnach, and Kirilloff, (also at 1B), and Wallner, with Gordon as a fill-in? I hate to say it, but the biggest trade "problem" the Twins have is timing. If Arraez is a prize in a deal, and he should be, his potential replacements for what he does are Martin and Julien. Not to mention Lewis and Lee, though slightly different offensive profiles. Could Martin or Julien jump to the ML level to replace what Areaez does to the lineup at this point? That's a huge stretch. IMO, Kirilloff is off the table for anyone until his surgery proves he's ready to fulfill his talent/potential. And while I don't want to trade away talent...who does...I'm looking at Arraez/Julien. Larnach/Wallner, and at least one arm in SWR/Varland/Balazovic/Festa. I might even look hard at Severino as a young and super talented young kid who finally started to put it together in 2022. IF the Twins could trade from this list, minus Arraez maybe, and maybe substitute a young A player that is NOT Rodriguez somewhere, I'd be happy to do so. Again, the Twins trade options bite is a number of really talented prospects to deal either not proven enough yet for value to the other team, or potentially not ready enough yet to step up to the ML level with the Twins as a replacement option. Just feels like the Twins are 6-12 months away of really seeing a TON of young talent pounding on the door, if they haven't already broken through. So do we trade early? Or do we see all the talent on hand do what it can when healthy and go from there?

The Twins were always on his short list. Unless you enjoy the "of course" game. His investment in the team in his one previous season shows his honesty. (The guy literally knew the top 30-40 prospect list). And he was a leader from day one. He's been in communication with Twins teammates, and even members of the FO, since the season ended. The Twins initial offer included opt outs to be "creative" in order to bring him back. Notice how there are NO opt outs as well as a no trade clause in this deal? Was he wrong to chase a $350M deal or a $315M deal? Absolutely not. But the long term play by both teams to circumvent the tax cap and just eat $ the final years didn't work. Good for the Twins. Good for Correa. He likely spends the rest of his career with one of the teams he wanted to sign with. And what's amazing is even though Correa himself has control over the final 4yrs to some degree, incentives and PA, the Twins still maintain a great degree of control as well. And by year 10, even if Correa is a 38yo 1B/DH utility type player, his salary will only be $10M. That's probably about a $5M veteran bat in today's market. He brings quality in so many ways as a ballplayer, a leader, an extremely intelligent spunding board, a face of the franchise, and even as an example the Minnesota is not just a "fly over" franchise, but one who is trying to actually win. I wouldn't be shocked if 10yrs from now, if he still wants to be in the game still, if he wasn't part of the organization in some capacity.

Correa had a short list of teams he wanted to play for, and for the rest of his career. The Twins were on that list. He was so engaged in his first season with the Twins that he not only became an immediate leader and friend to the clubhouse, he actually reviewed the milb talent coming up. He's been engaged on social media with many of his Twins teammates. The initial Giants offer was only $20-25M more than the Twins, but over 12-13yrs. Had they stuck to that, he might have remained a Twin from day 1. The initial Mets offer was very close to the initial Twins offer, but also longer years. Each high market team trying to play a long game to avoid luxury tax as much as possible. I could never blame Correa for jumping at a HUGE deal in a market that seemed to explode over night and look to the Giants. Or the Mets, who's deal I never quite understood due to a move to 3B, the length and lower AAV. But looked what happened when both teams got cold feet while playing the long term manipulation game? The Twins are NOT a consolation prize for Correa. They ended up with not only the biggest payout, but the highest potential payout without all the weird manipulations and clauses. And they were/are one of the teams on his short list he wanted to finish his career with. Think about my last comment. A team he wants to finish his career with. No opt outs. No trade clause. Six guaranteed years and 4 team option years, with declining salaries, and some fairly easy player clauses that still provide Twins control, ultimately. He's here for the long haul. Yes, he wanted $. But he wanted a team to call HOME for the rest of his career. And he found it with the Twins. It might have taken a bizarre route to get HOME, but the Twins never played games. They were open from day one and got a great deal done for both sides, WITHOUT Correa needing or wanting an opt out, which was part of their original offer. The Twins were the 3rd and final team to make this all happen. But we weren't some 3rd runner up. We were the right fit at the end of the day.

I've been a fan of Kepler. I think it's time for both sides to part ways, a fresh start for Max, and greater opportunity for the young guys to shine. (provided the injury curse is finally over!). But Kepler DOES have value for any team. Miami might like him as PART of a package to raise their floor both offensively and defensively. But he'd only be the #2 or #3 piece for a top young SP with control. Max might be perfect for a team that believes that they can compete in 2023 but may be unsettled in the OF. I think that's part of the reason there have been on again and off again rumors that the Yankees might be interested. Could Kepler help bring in a pitcher? Yes. Is he more likely to bring in a quality RP? Yes. His best value, if he is indeed traded, is a solid young AA level player or two to replace what the Twins trade from the system to someone else to acquire said hypothetical pitcher. Trade prospects, bring another solid 1 or 2 back.

I'm fine with McCutchen as an option, despite having a rather down 2022. I'm willing to trust in his career mark against LHP. But I also really like Mancini. He's capable of playing the OF corners and gives the Twins a RH 1B option as well to help balance Arraez and Kirilloff.

It's never a problem to have "too much talent" on your roster. But at some point, SOMEONE will be moved for pitching or prospects. And while it's hard to predict exactly where guys will settle in, the versatility of all easily allows site of the various possibilities. Lewis can start at 2B/3B/OF and still backup SS. Lee can start at 2B/3B and also backup SS. Martin ends up in the OF but can help cover 2B/3B, his college positions. He's basically RH Gordon. Miranda can play both 1B/3B as needed. As previously mentioned, Julien is missing from the OP. You make room for him somewhere. Maybe he's a faster, more powerful and similar player to Arraez and fills a similar role. Polanco and Arraez might be my favorite two Twins. They are both excellent hitters and neither is old. There is no reason for them to go anywhere. But sheer numbers indicate that one of them, or both, or a couple of the prospects will be moved at some point.

Exactly. Peripheral roster moves MIGHT pay dividends at some point. But every single team plays the end of the 40 man roster DFA game to add some players you hope to sneak through and keep for depth and AAA depth. Alexy is another. He's probably DFA in a few days for someone like Fulmer is added to the roster. It's just the game within the game hoping lightning strikes at some point and you find a potential keeper. Once in a while you find a keeper. And that's it.

WOW! I thought this might actually happen until those last minute reports the Mets thought they would work it out. This is a tremendous and completely surprising deal! I expected the deal to be front loaded, but 6yrs and $200M guaranteed was just never expected! And there is control over the last 4yrs for both parties, along with smaller AAV. *Just my opinion, I won't give credit to the FO having this fall in their lap. I DO give them credit for staying in contact and working out a good deal for both sides. I also DO give them credit for chasing him in the first place. Again, my opinion, the Twins initial offer WAS very fair based on the market the past few years. The fact that the market went NUTS this year doesn't, IMO, diminish the fact that they dove in to the deep end this year. WHAT DOES CARLOS CORREA'S RETURN MEAN FOR THE 2023 TWINS? 1] However it turned out, their perception changed simply because they took a plunge in to the deep end, and were winners in the end. 2] The Twins have one of the best SS in all of MLB, and arguably one of the best players overall. SS is set for 6yrs with a great player. 3] The defense is better. 4] The offense is better. 5] Team leadership remains remains from having him. In his ONE YEAR, he was so invested in the team that he knew all the top milb talent. And he openly stated that if brought back, there were other things he wanted to do to work with the team going forward as a leader. 6] The infield depth is better now as Farmer becomes a valuable and versatile piece for 2yrs instead of being a solid but not great starting SS. It even puts less pressure on Gordon as the only viable infield utility player on the roster. (No disrespect toward Arraez being able to fill in). 7] The FUTURE infield, and maybe even OF, depth and versatility improves. Lewis can now take all of his talent to 2B or 3B, or OF, or ALL, and still backup SS. Lee can play 3B, or 2B, and also cover SS. Miranda can cover both infield corners. A healthy AK can play 1B and corner OF. Martin can play across the OF, and possibly still cover 3B and 2B, which he played in college. And I'm not even certain where Julien fits in, but he's a top prospect with the talent to fit in somewhere. 8] While I don't necessarily want to trade any of our young talent to add elsewhere...I love having a ton of abundant talent available...the truth is the Twins have suddenly gained the ability to do so. So yeah, this move changes a LOT! NOW, more than ever, the FO can't stop. Go grab Mancini for a RH bat who can play some corner OF and 1B. If the FO has belief in McCutchon, or someone else that's left, FINE. But get a RH bat that the roster needs. Go grab ONE quality RP to INSURE the pen has enough talent and depth. I'd grab Fulmer. But there's a couple really good LH also available. Who do you want? Go get him! I don't know you can get 2, but go grab at least ONE. The best pen you can put together also makes the rotation better. I'm deliberately ignoring a trade for a rotation arm because it's beyond THIS topic point. There's still $ available to add a couple pieces without blowing up payroll. A combination of players and prospects MIGHT allow to make a big trade still. If it's smart. But right now, with Correa back in the fold, you can't just sit back and NOT make a couple more obvious additions.

It's funny/interesting to me, before all of this came down, what I remember about him is an interview he gave about his personal life a few years back. Paraphrasing slightly as I don't have a link, he stated that he tells all of his romantic/partner interests that he's in it for fun. And the minute they get serious, he's out. Now, while I think that is rather deplorable as a man, father, lover of women, etc...and find his beliefs as misogynistic and extremely nialistic...I can at least "appreciate" an attempt to be honest. (Sigh and shudder). I believe in most of the court system. I understand he has yet to be convicted of anything. I believe in forgiveness for anyone who wants to change and make amends for anything done, or even questionable in their life. And thus, I believe in second chances for anyone. Hell, I believe in 3rd chances for those that mean it. I don't care, on an isolated incident, that he was pissed and pumped up and showed up his manager by throwing a ball to the OF in a display of frustration and anger. Stuff happens. As human beings, we all have moments. And I think it's safe to say we all wouldn't be best friends and love EVERYONE on our favorite sports teams as much as others if we knew them. That's just being honest. But there is truth to "where there's smoke, there's fire". And when there is this much smoke, man, there has to be a fire smoldering somewhere, despite conviction, that has to tell you NO. STAY AWAY!

I love the Chaffin idea to team with Thielbar, and maybe Moran still, to have 3 LH in the pen, even though Moran is better against RH bats. What a luxury for the pen. And Hand is also still available, probably a couple $M cheaper. He's only had a couple bad seasons in his career and showed in 2022 there may still be some life there. I've actually been surprised the Twins didn't sign Fulmer weeks ago. He's only going to be 30yrs old in 2023, is a legit 7th inning guy, seems to have miles left on his arm, and has only been relieving for about 2yrs. Lots of miles left, young, and might have 8th inning potential as he continues to grow in this role. There are more than a handful of BP arms sitting out there that will probably sign late and have the "if healthy" or "if he finds this pitch again" or "if he can adjust" labels attached to them that might be potential, cheap, steals. But just like a rotation needs more than 5 arms, the pen needs more than 8. Why, in the name of the baseball gods, wouldn't you take all the $ available to add to the bullpen? I love the potential of Moran and Alcala. I think they have real futures. But why not move on from Pagan, Megill and Ortega to some veteran, PROVEN arms who make your pen borderline outstanding? With some of the young arms provIding middle relief, while getting their feet wet, you increase the depth of the ENTIRE STAFF. I'm dumbstruck at this point. I like Mancini as a RH bat to help at the corner OF spots and at 1B. Like everyone else, I am HOPEFUL for Kirilloff to be ready to resume his trajectory as a high level bat. And even if he's 100% OK and the Twins decide he could use a month or so to ramp up after so much time missed, there's STILL room for a RH bat on this team. Mancini can probably play the OF as well as Garlick, and is a more proven player/producer. He can also assist at 1B with Arraez and AK. How ISN'T he a fit for team need here? You're going to bet on Garlick? Or a sudden rise of Martin being ready? Or Celestino isn't better served spending time at AAA, which he's barely played at, to hone his skills and work off some rough edges? It's so obvious we need to make an addition. And unless the FO thinks they have another "steal" on the market or via trade, how about adding a solid, experienced hitter? Why does this seem so obvious, pen and RH bat? Barring a last minute Correa/Boras coming to the Twins decision, SS belongs to Farmer. In my 2023 blueprint I went with Iglesias because his career numbers and OPS were spot on. If not better, with the more "regarded" Andrus. Andrus is ONLY the better choice if you believe his 2022 resurgence is for real. Older than Iglesias, do you want to bet on that for 2023? Or do you run with the comparable Farmer? I think I know what the Twins will do. Do the Twins trade for a SS? Should they grab Kim from the Padres and let Farmer be a super utility player? Kim is a very fine player and SS. But what's the cost for a short term SS? Maybe we make a deal with the Mets for Guilmore. Again, what's the cost for short term. Are either an upgrade enough to make a difference in the short term? ADD to the pen. ADD Mancini. Everything else is done.

Nick, I don't think this is a crazy idea at all, even though I don't know that I'm on board. And I have to admit, I've been out on him the past few years when his name has been brought up previously based on his last few seasons. But then I read your thoughts, and went back again a d looked at his career. He was still really good in 2018. Not so good in 2019 where he was probably struggling due to his arm and eventual surgery. But in SSS, he was throwing pretty well in 2021 again. And then 2022 was, obviously, a bit of a nightmare year. If we eliminate 2022, he looks like an arm ready to bounce back strong based on his 2021, coming back from TJ. Someone mentioned Verlander. There was a brief time when he looked almost cooked in Detroit before rebounding and finding just as much success as he had previously after the trade to Houston. I'm not so certain Sale is cooked yet. I could see a major rebound and a few more really good years if 2022, and his various injuries there can be pushed aside and overcome. But wouldn't Boston probably see the same thing? A no trade clause? Those are often waived. He might be looking for a change of scenery out of Boston, and a fresh start. The more of his contract the Twins take on, the lower the trade cost, which might play a part. I do worry some about the mesh of personality to the Twins roster. I had forgotten about the uniform cutting situation. Competitive fire, and frustration, are good things and can be understood and accepted. But extreme forms can be equally detrimental and negative. For the most part, I think the FO has been pretty calculated in regard to personality, though they've taken "risks" a couple of times. IF the Twins see a serious rebound, the cost is cheap, and IF they feel he fits in the clubhouse, I see a potential for a huge rebound that pays real dividends. I don't dislike this idea at all. Potentially low risk and high reward. But I'd bet Boston sees the potential reward, he'd have to want a change of scenery, and I wouldn't want him if the FO had any doubts about personality fit. But it's NOT a crazy or bad idea.

If the Twins...who have a ton of $ to spend on the roster left...were really "interested" enough to sign Wacha I wouldn't scream bloody murder, and the sky wouldn't be falling. 1] They just might want to hedge bets on everyone being healthy and not feel they have to "pressure" Winder, Varland, and SWR immediately in to a starting role. 2] They MIGHT decide Gray to a team needing a quality starter with 1yr and the qualifying offer available for prospects..or players..to add to the system to maybe make ANOTHER trade and go after a younger, controllable SP such as Lopez. I DON'T like trading Gray because we're SUPPOSED to be trying to compete. That's why we traded for him in the FIRST PLACE. Not only could he be re-signed, but he could receive a QO next year, I believe. And at some point, you have to take the training wheels off your young pitchers and give them opportunity. I've read "rumors" the FO isn't done and might want to shake some things up. Well, that's pretty much going to happen via trade at this point. (Though there are a handful of solid FA to augment the roster still available). And IF they do so, replacing some of what you trade isn't a horrible idea. But we should be beyond the 30yo, average-ish, back end SP types at this point.

I love the Vasquez signing to help the staff. I'm also frustrated at times that people don't realize Jeffers is a good presence behind the plate who has the confidence of the staff. He's got a little over 500 AB and has real potential as a hitter. But because he hasn't hit like his SSS in 2020 he's already some kind of bust. His glove and game calling and results and trust in the coaching staff tells and shows me they believe in his potential. But Vasqyez is here to make him better behind the plate than he already is, and ease the burden of being the #1. Remember when Castro helped Garved realize his potential? Jeffers has SO MUCH potential as a hitter. Don't disbelieve in 500 AB and all of his potential is all I'm saying. Kirilloff is simple. He has greatness wrapped around him. Just...baseball gods be blessed...this surgery actually works. Whether he's ready day 1, or needs a few weeks at St Paul to get in a groove, it's ALL about his wrist. Unlike AK, Larnach's injuries are not chronic, just a Twins top prospect curse, lol. He will be very good to great given a full season. I just don't know what to say about Ryan. Everything about him "plays". I have serious doubts he's ever a #1, and maybe not a #2. Depends on his secondary stuff because at times he just looks like a stud on the mound. But he's NOT a #4 or 5. Velocity isn't everything. Deception and control are paramount. I've seen enough to say "Damn! This kid could be awesome! And I've seen enough inconsistency to say "this kid could be good". Agree he needs to develop and learn and take all his smarts, bulldog mentality, and take it to another level. Here's hoping he does. Ober is a HUGE wild card! The Twins were really smart in how they handled him in 2021. He looked good, and got better and better. He was good to very good when on the mound in 2022. Did his past injury gremlin bite again? Or was it just a weird offseason where he just wasn't ready and right after the changes in his approach in 2021? If he's healthy, and right, and a normal progression through the offseason and ST, he might still need to be monitored for total IP, to continue to build him up, but he might have as much pure stuff and potential as anyone on the staff. I would be overjoyed if he could be stretched out to 26 GS, even if it was a little over 5 IP per start. There is just SO MUCH TO LIKE in this kid if they can just nudge him forward and prove that the new arm delivery they began with in 2021 is right.

When the Twins acquired Celestino, I was intrigued. Not blown away, but intrigued. (Duran was the prize at the time, IMO). But after his 2019 season, mostly at then LOW A Cedar Rapids, I became optimistic we got a really talented young OF with potential. He hit, got OB, stole bases, and provided XB and some HR power. What was there to not like? And as Cody pointed out, despite missing 2020 entirely, and only 8 GAMES at high A, he began 2021 at AA. Two very bad things have happened to Celestino the past two years: 1] With a grand total of 8 games at A+ in 2019 and a whopping 21 games at AA he was promoted/rushed to the BIGS due to a vast array of injuries. He clearly wasn't ready. And what did he do? He went to AAA and basically raked for 49 games. 2] The Twins went in to 2022 with Garlick as their only RH OF bat, besides Buxton, which had been an obvious weakness for a couple of years. So they "trusted" the rushed and not yet ready Celestino to play a significant part on a team that was expected to compete for a post season spot. Sorry, not sorry, the kid has talent but had a cup of coffee at AA and 2 cups at AAA before being asked to be a productive ML OF and hitter. And despite this, he won't even turn 24yo until just before ST starts. Honestly, if you step back for a moment and reflect, his rushed promotion has been handled in the same "p*ss-poor" manner as was Polanco. (Old but accurate reference). Polanco overcame these early issues to become a very good ML player. And "very good" might be under selling him. The very best thing the Twins could do, and should do, is ADD a RH bat better than Garlick...beating the same poor horse yet again...and let Gordon and Gallo cover CF when Buxton needs a day off. The team, the lineup needs it, and so does Celestino so he can play daily at St Paul, get his legs under him, hit and play, take everything he's learned, get better, adjust, round off the rough edges, and be ready when called on. HIS CEILING: A starting CF for many teams, but a fill-in with Buxton entrenched. IDK if he has it in him to be a 20 HR hitter, but he's got XB pop/power in his bat, XB and SB ability, and hit and OB ability based on his milb career. (POTENTIAL starting LF for the Twins over several options, including Martin who might look better NOW). HIS FLOOR: Everything stated above but as a 4th OF who plays great defense in all 3 spots, as well as PH, PR, and and adds decent hitting, OB, pop/power, etc, but on a 4th OF basis. SHAME on the FO, IMO, if they ignore a RH OF bat need for the ML 2023 team and ignore the potential of a quality asset that could pay dividends with a little more development time.

I agree. Everything you stated is correct. But just to be fair, when building a roster, there is, obviously, room for players who aren't power plants, but merely good, and productive hitters. Guys who get OB, who can continue innings, advance runners, be clutch, etc. And Arraez is that kind of player. And I know you know this, I'm just stating the obvious. I think a comparison between Arraez and Gallo might be a better analogy. IF the Gallo we signed is the pre-2022 version, he is a K machine with low BA. But his OB and power makes him productive and dangerous with a career .794 OPS even including his horrific 2022. And he's over .800 pre 2022. Arraez, still in his mid 20's, through physical development and experience, has begun to develop some pop/power, though he will never be a powerful hitter. But he already has a career OPS of .784. And he was over .800 for much of 2022 until injuries affected him for part of the 2nd half of the season. AVG and OB only gets you so far. His ability to provide 40+ XB hits raises his total game, as well as total value for now, and the future. Martin is a very similar player to Arraez, but with much more speed. (Talking hitting, not defense). I've often thought, and commented, that I think Martin could be a RH version of Royal's great Alex Gordon...a little less HR power but probably a better AVG and OB version of him, with a little more speed. I see a ton of doubles, eventual mid teens HR power, double digit SB and maybe 20+, and hitting and getting OB while being a quality LF who can play a solid CF and can cover 2B/3B if and when you need him to. If even more power develops, that's a bonus. But he doesn't have to be a 20+HR hitter to be valuable and very good.

Pure speculation on my part, but it almost feels as though the Mets are looking for an "out" at this point, or are pushing Boras and Correa to walk away. It's still not hard to imagine another team swooping in for a somewhat similar type of deal and grabbing Correa. I'm of the opinion the Twins HAVE been talking to Boras and not simply making a courtesy call to wish everyone a Happy New Year. No clue whatsoever if the original offer is on the table, slightly amended, or more than slightly amended. But I think there has been real conversation about a possible deal. Again, I'm just speculating/spitballing here, but I'm thinking 8-10yrs with a bump the first 3-4yrs in AAV to keep the total $ close to their original offer, an opt out after 3 or 4 years for Correa to bet on himself, and then slowly decreasing $ values per year to decrease payroll "burden" if/as Correa begins to slide in the later years. This accomplishes more than a few items : 1] The Twins get a prime player for his prime years, even if he opts out at some point. A prime player who has been healthy the past few years, and was to close out 2022. 2] Correa and Boras both save face with a high $ and year deal with guaranteed $ over the entire contract. And, as mentioned, Correa gets to bet on himself and opt out in about 4yrs, showing everyone he's still fine, and look for another deal at 32yo. 3] Despite the fact that team incomes and payrolls will continue to rise over the next few years...and a $20M ish AAV by then will be the equivalent of about $14-15M now...the Twins payroll is better "protected" for any decline at that point to allow greater flexibility for signings and extensions and the such. NOT SAYING this is going to happen. But I CAN see it happening as it makes sense and I see the Mets deal just falling apart at this time.

THIS! I believe the SS experiment is over, yes? He should be a primary LF/CF who's arm isn't great in RF, but he can sure cover the ground out there as well. As a former 3B/2B, there should be no reason he doesn't continue to get some reps there to increase his value to the team. He's athletic enough that some degree of power hitting should come naturally. And if he plays good defense, hits, gets OB, takes and steals XB, and can be a doubles machine with 14-15 ish HR power he'd be an outstanding ballplayer.

Not a big guy, but good velocity, solid K numbers, and finding better control of his curve...change in grip or whatever...he might be interesting. But the peripherals are just not good. Not excited about this at all. But it's keeping Enlow on the 40 man initially and cutting him that confuses me. He's still young and there should be some optimism in regard to velocity and control his 2nd year post surgery. So why risk loosing him at this point? Something just doesn't feel right. Would have made more sense to me to spend some of the $ they have available on Fulmer instead of a flier like this.

Through all of these rumors and vast speculation, the one thing I've always wondered is why Correa almost didn't just jump at the Twins offer one the deal with the Giants fell through. And more of the same with the Mets. $285-295-300M, I mean over 10yrs it's a pittance per season. And unless the information we had is greatly outdated, he has an opt out after 3-4yrs. What better way to bet on himself?

I'm of similar opinion. I don't think all is doom and gloom in Twinsland, provided the team can avoid the almost comically tragic injury situation of 2022 and just play ball with their mix of veterans and young talent. And I can't disagree with your 3 point plan, but have my own thoughts as well. 1] OF: Despite a front page OP, and my own forum thoughts, (quickly dismissed by the group), a few weeks ago, I'm not crazy about McCutchen. I like his experience and presence, and I'd be IN if I felt more comfortable that he'd be his 2021 self PER PLATE APPEARANCE. Who knows, he might surprise, but he's not my choice at this point. I'm torn between Pollock and Mancini. Pollock is not the player he was, but he was good in 2021 and only OK in 2022. But he still hit LHP well last year and is an OK OF who has enough experience to be a 3rd or 4th option in CF with Gordon and Gallo. But I'm also leaning towards Mancini as the best choice. He can still play some corner OF...doubt he'd be worse than Garlick...and can play a solid 1B, working in with the LH Arraez and Kirilloff. I think he's the right choice. 2] BULLPEN: I also believe in Lopez's stuff and believe his brief, mediocre Twins term in 2022 will turn around. I also have a lot of belief in the futures of both Moran and Alcala. But why just immediately "trust" in them, and their potential, when you have the $ to sign at least one option, if not two, to deepen the pen and set it up for success to deepen the STAFF as a whole and support the rotation? Chafin is still out there. So is Hand, probably on a 1yr deal. Why not add a LH to team with Thielbar? There might even be room for THREE LH BP arms, especially considering Moran's splits. That would be a huge luxury! Just as the rotation will need depth at some point, so will your bullpen probably need at least 12 guys. Personally, I discount Pagan not from spur grapes, but I just don't believe in him. I think he's traded or cut eventually for poor performance. So consider: Lopez, Duran, Thielbar, Chafin/Hand, Fulmer, Jax, Alcala, and Moran as your as your 1 and occasionally 2 IP guys. NOW, you have Winder, Sands, Henriquez, etc, as at least ONE long/middle guy, and you might keep two. I think we're in agreement there's something to work with, and opportunity to add that gives the best and deepest bullpen they've had in YEARS. 3] ROTATION: I'm just not interested in Wacha, even if he's a cut above Bundy and Archer. I feel the Twins are just better off giving a shot to the likes of Varland, SWR, and the previously mentioned Winder over another mediocre veteran who doesn't have a future with the team. (FWIW, my understanding has been interest in Wacha would be to replace Gray in a potential trade, but who knows for sure). I have serious reservations in regard to a trade for Pablo Lopez. I get that he's young, talented, and offers upside. But this is where you and I will potentially disagree. Thus far, his numbers don't scream top of the rotation starter. And again, young and with potential, he's got 2yrs of control and could be an extension candidate. And he's coming off a career year in regard to GS and IP. So maybe he's on the cusp of something? But is he better than a healthy Gray? And is he worth what it might take to get him? I'm not sure the Twins are a perfect trade option as Miami is looking for immediate offense, and not prospects, per reports. Does Kepler fit their needs? Or might they prefer the ready/near ready Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner and at less $? Perhaps they would be looking at Julien as a near ready inclusion. And Arraez? IMPO, Arraez should NOT be traded unless the deal is just too good to pass up. He can cover 3B and 2B just fine here and there, but is best at 1B and DH. And what's wrong with that? He's a unique and special kind of hitter who fills a role as a hitter, clutch hitter, and OB machine who has enough pop to be dangerous once in a while. He's special in his role, and his loss leaves a potential gaping hole at the top of the Twins lineup if removed. At some point, the Twins need to stop trading long term talent and potential for 2yrs of control unless they are going to open up their wallet for extensions. Having Lopez could be NICE, but it's the immediate and future cost to get him that concerns me. I guess I'm of the current opinion that adding a bat, adding to the pen, and running with the current rotation and rotation options might not just be the wisest course.

Can't disagree with you. The key to 2023 and beyond is getting healthy...an exhausted comment I know, but factual...and setting up the young talent to actually succeed. I'm with you on that. I think most would agree. Where we might disagree, somewhat, is still trying to win as many games at the same time. And I don't think either approach is mutually exclusive. The rotation has a chance to be pretty good, and offers some young talent and young depth. The bullpen, especially with another quality addition, maybe two, has a chance to be good to great. But right now, there really is NO-ONE to fill the role of RH OF bat to augment the lineup and depth. Martin isn't ready yet, and I think most of us agree Celestino has the tools to be a solid overall player, but lacks polish and has been rushed. And neither, at this point, seems to be a power plant type of bat. (Maybe in time). And that's OK. And yes, someone probably has to be moved in some sort of deal to alleviate the crowded picture in the OF. But a RH bat who might add a couple more wins still does, potentially, do exactly that, add a couple more wins. And said bat wouldnt/shouldn't necessarily be an every day performer who blocks the young LH bats. He'd be time sharing and filling a role. And I believe there's room to make that addition, flesh out the lineup options, competing for as many wins as possible, while still running with the young guys.