DocBauer

Without knowing any of the exact details of the three different offers, I like the approach being taken. And if I'm Correa and Boras, I think I'd like this approach as well, as it's allowing them a huge "here it is for 10yrs" OR the ability for a very high AAV and the ability to re-enter the market again in a few years. I think most of us have generally held the position that some sort of opt out would need to be included to re-sign him, granting Correa and Boras the opportunity to maximize financial opportunity. Now, that doesn't mean someone can't come in from one of the major markets and just go 10yrs and $330M and just blow up any chance the Twins have. And, unfortunately, any kind of opt out isn't a "win" for the Twins as your star player could be gone in 3 or 4 years to a potentially bigger deal after he already made a small king's ransom. But it's a way of getting a deal done that might actually make sense and work. I don't know that any comments about stretching out negotiations until January or February shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt. I don't know that you'd expect an agent to say anything else, even though that strategy didn't work out the way they hoped last year. I think Correa is being very open and honest in his desire to remain a Twin. I mean, he's talking to Buxton weekly and was face timing with Twins players during the new uniform unveiling! Assuming the various Twins offers are actually high and truly competitive...not some "well, it's fair and a record high for US"...and Correa likes them and wants to stay, there really would no reason to "hold out". The Twins FO is well respected by agents in general, and they've had a good working relationship with Boras. And I have to think Correa, as a potential Twin again, would appreciate getting things done, if he's happy, so the Twins can move forward with additional moves. Pure speculation on my part, but again, not sure you'd expect an agent to say anything different. And while Correa is definitely their #1 target, Boras also representing their #2 target in Bogaerts helps the Twins change direction if things just get out of hand market wise. I like what I'm hearing. I'm far more optimistic about a reunion with Correa than I was a few weeks ago. I'm also far more optimistic that the Twins are serious about landing ONE of the top 4. But it still remains to be seen if other organizations just blow the lid off the market. Finally, total $ to spend is still in question, and depends some on whether Kepler is kept or moved. That's another $8M+ to add to the budget, potentially. But there's enough open payroll either way for the FO to still ADD and move forward with their plans for 2023 while still leaving that HUGE $ value for a SS add. Waiting and being patient can pay off in the long run at times, but they can't afford to just wait around for another catcher, a RH bat, and maybe a quality SP. I mean, if Kepler IS moved, they've got a potential $70+ M to work with! And Correa, or any other SS, still only takes up a portion of that.

I don't disagree with you at all, except, a fully healthy Mahle might be better than Gray. But we're talking margins as a healthy Gray is a damn fine pitcher! My arguement has been, and continues to be, without extreme luck, every team will need 8-10 SP for double headers and a few muscle pulls and blisters, etc. And SWR and Varland, and HOPEFULLY Balazovic will provide all the depth we need. But there are enough questions about our very hopeful staff that if the FO really and truly intends to compete, you just have to EXPECT that something will go wrong with someone, at some time. And they should invest in someone as good or better than what they have already to make sure they are a serious competitor. Rodon is still my #1 addition to the staff. Risk, yes, but potential reward is very great.

Point of reference, unless I missed someone else doing the same, his $9M is based on incentives to be garnered as a SP. IF he's targeted for the pen...and I don't believe that is the plan at this time...and the Twins want to make him happy in his new role, they would have to adjust his incentives to something like appearances.

Elephant in the room first: SS. Long story short, the Twins have had at least preliminary discussions with Boras in regard to Correa that would seem to indicate high $200M at 8-9yrs. So they are being serious, at least in regard to initial talks. Over the course of 8-9yrs, an additional $10-15-20M is probably not a deal breaker. But 10yrs and well over $300M probably is. Ironically, Boras being the agent in question is not a huge roadblock as the Twins have had a good working relationship with him over the years. And if numbers get out of hand, I could see a shift to Bogaerts as a very nice second option, for less years and $. NOT saying Correa is out, or Turner or Swanson wouldn't be in play, but I think Correa and Bogaerts may be the pecking order currently. I think ownership and the FO are very serious about adding 1 of the big 4. Doing so changes the whole dichotomy of the infield. Without one, SOMEONE has to be added to help stabilize the infield and AT LEAST provide depth so Gordon isn't the ONLY option. SS could be a strength to average. I WANT and the Twins NEED better infield defense. Hard work, drills, and the coaching staff can and should make a difference. Figuring out SS will absolutely make a difference. Elephant covered, let's move on. Miranda is a good athlete, not a great one. He's got the arm and ability to play 3B. It's about the work he puts in. He's actually going to be spending some time with Correa, who's taken him under his wing since day one, to work on his defense this offseason. Since when do we dismiss defensive potential for a ROOKIE from day one that he can't be better? Gaetti, Koskie, Plouffe, and others turned out to be good to great with a little time and work. My goodness, he was practically learning 1B on the fly this past season. And speaking of learning things on the fly, had Arraez EVER played at 1B before 2022? Since he's been brought up, he's been tossed in to LF, 1B, and even asked to play a few innings at SS. Tell him he needs to go in as an emergency catcher and he's toss on the gear and give you a "no problem" wink and nod and do his best. He's an OK 2B. He might be better at 3B, but a couple bad plays has a lot of people believing he's some butcher there. He's not. He was generally solid at 1B this year, learning a new spot on the fly. Because that's what he does. He's still a limited athlete compared to others, so he's just never going to be a great 2B or 3B, but he's OK filling in at both spots. He's best as a 1B and DH. What's wrong with that? Kirilloff...who I am NOT betting on to begin the season but remain ever hopeful for...is a solid OF. I've watched him play. Not great, but solid. But he looks like a NATURAL at 1B. His bat and glove can potentially change a lot of things IF his surgery was successful. His wrist is not a problem any longer and he can FINALLY have the career laid put for him? He's a difference maker! A healthy Polanco is a fine 2B. Period. He was an OK SS...ironic to this day as he was signed as a defense 1st SS...but is good to very good at 2B when healthy. And like half of the roster last year, he wasn't from about July on. And if you've watched enough games, you know this to be true. Gordon is best as an OF, but he can cover 2B and SS adequately. Not daily, but can be a nice fill-in and do some nice things offensively. I'm not worried about 1B, especially if AK can come back strong. I'm not worried about 2B with Polanco healthy and some decent backup options. Gut tells me Miranda is going to be OK at 3B with work and experience. The "hole", if there truly is one, is are we going to be OK at SS? Or might we be better than that with a future BIG addition? Hard work by Miranda, a healthy Polanco. Improvement from Arraez at 1B, a healthy AK also at 1B, are all PARTS of a better infield defense. ADEQUATE SS play, with the above is OK. The above with one of the TOP FA SS can move the needle up another important notch.

There are a number of RH OF options the Twins could be looking to add, some of them already discussed in previous articles from Renfroe to McCutchen, and none of them break the bank while providing much needed offense against LHP. The Twins should absolutely be in on Haniger. I don't know anything about anything when it comes to MLB financial numbers. On the one hand, a healthy Haniger has put up near All Star numbers. On the other hand, he does, unfortunately, have an injury history, will be 32yo in 2023, and is coming off his highest earnings season at only $7.75M. I'm not surprised he has a lot of interest. He should. But I have a hard time believing he's really looking at something like $14M per, as I've read here and there. If I could grab him for $10M per for 2 years with a possible option year, I would have signed him yesterday. And if his market is truly robust, $12M wouldn't be silly at all. But if it's more than that, I have to start thinking about looking elsewhere. His value to the Twins...and his $ value...changes if Kepler is moved, as many suspect.

I have really come around to the idea that the Twins are legitimate contenders for one of the big 4 FA at SS. IMO, it's either Correa or Bogaerts. Not saying they aren't looking at Swanson or Turner, just a hunch on the first two. Crazy to believe, but Boras as the agent for both is a plus for the Twins as they have a good relationship with him. Assuming that happens, Farmer is clearly the top backup. Arraez is #3 and I think he's fine there on a limited basis. On the milb side, things are a bit sparse until mid season when Lewis should be back and Lee might be ready for a promotion. And I say sparse only because of more time needed, and I'm really worried someone is going to snag Severino and stash him, though I'm really, really hoping that won't be the case. Still, like Lee, he might not be ready for AAA until mid year. Bechtold has never turned in to the hitter I had hoped, though he's really developed decent power. He's a very good defensive 3B who also plays 1B and catches. He could be a "break glass" option. Not sure about Julien. His bat is going to play and you FIND ROOM for a bat like his. He played almost solely at 2B in 2022, but has played a little 3B previously, and unless his arm is just really poor, I'd love to see him play some 3B this coming season. Really increases his value/versatility if he can. And while a bit old for prospect status, Helman can play just about everywhere and brings a lot of overall ability offensively. But his tools and versatility might make him a rule 5 pick for someone to stash as well. Interesting Martin wasn't mentioned. He played a lot of 3B in college, IIRC, and if his bat keeps progressing, he might be an option as well. (I'm thinking he is a younger, better Marwin Gonzalez super utility player in the future). WITH a top SS, 3B is just fine with a lot of future options there. But those options aren't quite ready, and not on the 40 man at this time. But the potential and a couple "if needed" options might be available.

I've maintained all along that while the rotation for 2023 looks solid, and deep, the FO should be approaching the season EXPECTING someone to be hurt on a regular basis. They should be adding a high quality arm, not a filler. Rodon would be the ideal fit for many reasons. But there are a handful of others out there as good or better than what we have on hand if not Rodon. But that doesn't diminish Maeda in any way. His velocity was down in 2021? Well, his arm was giving out. I wouldn't be surprised to see an uptick in velocity in 2023, though his performance has never been about pure velo. (And he looked fantastic during ST 2021). I've heard the reason he didn't pitch late in 2022 was basically (and there was little reason to at that point), they just wanted to ramp him up for 2023 and felt his control was looking excellent. He's probably going to be on somewhat of a pitch and innings count early on. I could see him finishing the year in the pen, assuming he tires. But then again, with some monitoring, and a few skipped starts here and there, that may not be necessary. I don't expect the 2020 version of Maeda. But I expect a pretty solid pitcher with tons of experience who will make a really solid contribution next year. Doesn't mean I expect him or anyone else to be 100% all season and the Twins shouldn't add someone for the top of the rotation.

Hoping against hope that Severino and Sisk aren't selected, or, are offered back to the Twins as not quite ready.

If they sign Correa, or one of the other big 4, he's a nice super utility player who will almost assuredly be in the lineup somewhere against LHP. He can also be the emergency 3rd catcher. If the miss out on any of the big 4 SS, he begins 2023 as a solid SS bridge and the Twins pivot to more pitching and additional bats to strengthen the staff and lineup. Frankly, he just fits the construction of the team better than Urshela. That's why the move.

It was the catching comments that caught my eye. I think the Twins place a huge emphasis on catching, from the coaches they've added to their change in approach to the catcher stance, to taking batting practice before defensive work while their legs were fresh. They've moved some guys to catcher, and they've acquired a few defense first catchers in various trades all while hoping to catch lightning. And other than Jeffers being picked high, they've also drafted guys like Williams, and Isola, and others in 2018 and 2019. Other than Jeffers, nobody has really shown much other than Williams and Isola, who look like AAAA options with different hitting profiles at this point. But here's what I think happened. The FO brought Castro in and developed Garver. And they had Rortvedt in the system that they thought had a chance to be something. Whether bad scouting or not drafting high enough, or just believing they were OK for the short term, they didn't look hard enough to add to what they had. At least not soon enough! And they've been caught short handed now, pun intended. They drafted 3 catchers in 2021, Cardenas in the 8th round, Winkel right after in the 9th, and Tatum in the 20th. 2022 was their 1st full season after brief appearances in 2021. In 2022 they selected Cossetti in the 11th round and Baez right after in the 12th. So while they may have been unlucky in previous picks post Jeffers or not attentive enough, they've drafted 5 catchers the past 2 drafts. And there are things to like about all of them, they're all 2-3 years plus away from the ML level, they aren't ignoring the position. Did they strikeout with some of the catchers they traded for? So far, yes. Other than Jeffers, debatable thus far, have they struck out on other catcher draft picks in 2018 and 2019? Probably. Way to early to speculate on the draftees in 2021 and 2022. But I think it's fair to say they either blew or ignored the position for a couple of years and that's left us with a huge gap in available talent at an important position which is in direct opposite to their coaching and development approach. In 2-3 years we MIGHT have a collection of quality catching prospects coming up in the system. But for now, it's Jeffers and huge question marks. And that leaves trade or FA to "fix" things in the short term. NOT saying the FO missed another Mauer STUD draftee they passed on. But somewhere along the line they missed out or didn't prioritize a position of importance enough soon enough.

Are they really #6? Maybe. Rankings like this are just so subjective that I don't know how on earth you can have any sort of general consensus. But despite trades and promotions of a number of young players...not necessarily 100% proven at this point...I never bought the system was suddenly downgraded to the bottom third. That's a pretty good looking top 10, IMO, even if it's hitter heavy. Outside that top 10...and this is to offer a little more hope and perspective...what happens if Balazovic is 100% and rebounds next year? Varland, maybe not a stud, isn't even in that top 10. While I don't think either Sands or Henriquez are going to probably stick in the rotation, I could see both transitioning to being really solid bullpen pieces. And there's real value in that, even if neither are the type to bump rankings. And the same may be true of LH Headrick, who might stick as a rotation piece. If there is a "problem" within the system, and the rankings, it would be an absence of top prospects around the AA level. Not saying there's not talent that will be at that level in 2023, but it feels the best talent is at AAA and low A and the Rookie level. But I think recent foreign signings and the 2022 draft, and the 2023 one, could change that perspective very quickly. Maybe most encouraging by that differential in talent levels? Over the next couple of seasons we're going to see Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Julien, SWR, Varland, Larnach, Kirilloff, and others being low cost and very good young players at the ML level allowing for those A and Rookie level players rising through the system. Things are not dark in the system at all.

Gray stated he would like the opportunity to pitch later in to games. They let him. It didn't go well. His response was (slight paraphrasing) "I appreciated the opportunity. But I need to throw better". He never burst out, got angry, said anything bad about anyone. He simply voiced what he'd like to see happen. And actually, later in the season, the Twins did start to throw guys a little longer. His lack of 160IP + ability worries me. But I sure like what he brings to the clubhouse and to the mound when he is healthy. I'm thinking 2 and $28-30? Maybe a 3rd year with an option thrown in for around $12-13 with a couple $M buyout? A healthy Mahle is probably the better pitcher going forward. But I wouldn't mind seeing Gray stick around a couple more years.

I hadn't even considered him until he was placed in someone's blueprint. He could be a great fit for the RH bat the Twins need, and he might not cost as much as other options if $ gets tight. (From other big/large signings). I like the fact he can play 1B, but I need to know he can be at least average in the corner OF spots, because that's where he's really needed. Career fielding percentage only tells a small picture. And I haven't followed Baltimore enough to have that answer.

Nick, I love your work...but...there was a TD office pool about who was going to have to write an article saying something positive and you drew the short straw, right? Velocity, high K and swing and miss numbers are awesome. Until you realize striking out the side wasn't really anything special when surrounded by a line drive hit, a walk, and then a 3 run HR. I EXPECT pitchers to allow runs. Even RP. The question is the frequency and volume of those runs allowed. And 3yrs showing Pagan is one of the worst in all of MLB at allowing those runs is literally anti-relief. And that anyone should suddenly place new found faith in Pagan due to a month and a half of better results at the end of the season with a "new pitch" that nobody has seen before? Misguided hopefulness at best. $4M for a 32yo, 1-2IP middle man who has been mediocre to awful for 3yrs running instead of adding someone better, or, providing opportunity for a young arm already in your system is either poor roster/resource management or stubbornness or both. If proven wrong, I will gladly admit to being so. But the only reason for Pagan to still be on the roster in any way is because they feel they are going to be able to move him soon for SOMETHING. And if so, make it happen quick or let him go and move on.

No Larnach? I'd have him in LF over Wallner, probably. There could be good reasons for Larnach in RF and Wallner in LF. To me, Kepler would be moved. His freed up salary would allow to bring in that solid RH hitting OF for only a little more $. The defense suffers some, naturally, but the offense is so much more effective. While I understand the reasoning for including Pagan in your bullpen, I am so hoping he's gone, one way or another, and is replaced by a FA or one of the young internal arms. The rest makes sense. I'm buying in to Bogarts as a quality option to replace Correa, assuming we lose out. But I'm starting to wonder about Dansby Swanson as well. He's probably better defensively, will probably come cheaper, but wouldn't be quite as good of a hitter as Bogarts.

I really like this move beyond the fill-in SS if the Twins strikeout on Correa or any of the other top 4 SS FA. And I'll try to abbreviate my longer post in another OP on this. As of now, Lee, Lewis, and Julien are not ready. As of now, there is ZERO depth at St Paul for the infield. Before this trade, Gordon would be tasked with covering at least 5 spots in the field. Now he doesn't have to, potentially, based on future moves. This makes the roster deeper, again, depending on future moves. Like the guy he's essentially replacing, Urshela, he's a bit of a late bloomer. And if you look at his career numbers, especially the last two, he's virtually the same hitter for less money. Assuming, for a moment, that you just pencil in a 13 man position roster for the 2023 Twins, you'd have 2 catchers...one TBD...Miranda, Polanco, Arraez, and a TBD SS, and an OF of Larnach, Buxton, Gordon, Kepler/Wallner, and whatever RH they will add. (Garlick is the 2023 version of Cave, depth only). ASSUME Kirilloff will be healthy and ready to go and you still only have 12 position players. Again, as I stated elsewhere, that 13th spot could be an inexpensive PR, OF defensive player who rarely starts, OR, a 1B/DH bat...leaving Gordon as your sole utility player...OR, you can build the best lineup you can, have someone like Farmer as a quality utility player you can count on, and let Gordon still fill many roles. How the Twins fill SS and what RH bat they add...maybe 2 depending...will ultimately determine their 13 man position player portion of the roster. There's a lot of different directions this team could still go. But I think this was a smart addition.

I understand Pagan has velocity and high K numbers. I understand he was working on a different pitch, or a variation of an existing one, and posted better numbers over the last couple of months when in lower pressure situations. But he remains, at best, a 1-2 inning middle reliever who has some of MLB WORST performance numbers for 4yrs running! I would have let him loose last July. Right now, I'd move him for anything I could get, if that's possible. $3M plus for a live but poorly performing arm in middle relief? Come on FO! Stop being stubborn! You should be smarter than this. Move him or cut him and use his $3M towards a better ballplayer and use your system and FA to fill the middle inning role. An expensive middle reliever who K's batters but still allows a HR virtually every other time out just isn't valuable.

A recent podcast with John and Aaron...as well as Dan Hayes... used the term "freezer burn" in regard to Kepler. While a slightly jaded term, it's appropriate. If the Twins were in the market for a LH OF with great defense and power and a solid overall game, he'd be the kind of talented, bounceback guy you might be looking at. But sometimes it's just time for the team and player to have a fresh start. And I think that's where we are at in regard to Kepler. I've been a Max fan and supporter since the day he was signed. And if he's kept, I won't be upset, and will hope for a rebound. But with Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Gordon knocking on the door for playing time and opportunity, along with whoever they add as a much needed RH, it's just time for both parties to go a different direction. It makes me sad to say that, but I believe it's true.

This! Thinking BIG PICTURE about the roster for next year I always come up with some sort of 12 man position grouping with room for 1 more. Just examine for a moment: 2 catchers, Arraez, Polanco, Miranda and SS TBD, Larnach, Buxton, Gordon, Kepler/Wallner, and a RH OF TBD. ASSUME Kirilloff is actually ready to go at 1B/OF. That's 12 with a 13th spot to fill. While I like Gordon and think he's actually going to still improve, he's the only "cover" for multiple positions. And yes, you can live with that most days and maybe add a defense first speed guy to the OF who rarely starts. OR, you can add another DH/1B bat like Bell or Abreu, etc. OR, you can add someone like Farmer who is, yes, a break glass temp SS, but who can play multiple positions to provide additional infield depth and not just have Gordon, freeing him to do whatever he needs to do in the infield, outfield, and even pinch run. And if Gordon is filling in at CF, you still have another veteran infielder to fill in where needed. And let's face it, until Lewis, Lee, and Julien are ready, infield depth at St Paul is currently non-existant. I think this is a smart move. Rough payroll calculation: $90M if/when/logically/hopefully Pagan is moved, minus Urshela, add in Farmer...$86M. Minus a very possible Kepler move, a $78M payroll. That's over $60M to spend to just reach 2022 numbers. Add in just a 5% bump for league wide "inflation" of expected payroll...and the Twins maybe even hitting the $150M mark...the Twins still have, potentially, $67-70M to still dole out for additions.

I like Urshela as a player and as a clubhouse guy. I would have been very happy to see him stay. He's good, not great, but good. But he isn't part of the future. Regardless of the Correa situation...or any of the other top FA SS...you simply have to make room for the young ballplayers in your system. It's the same situation when we talk about making room in the rotation for young arms vs yet another Shoemaker, Happ, Bundy, Archer type of signing. Miranda moves to 3B now, with the ability to also play 1B. And Lewis and Lee...not forgetting Julien...are options also at 3B/SS/2B going forward depending on how the SS situation gets handled. All young, inexpensive, controllable, more talented, and full of potential. Again, I like Urshela, he has value, but he wasn't going to be part of 2024 and beyond and this makes sense. It also frees up some extra $ to be added to the pot for other additions. I thought Urshela might have brought a little more back, say a AA player or arm. But with only 1yr of control left, the Twins appeared to go for a younger arm with more upside rather than someone higher in the Angels chain but maybe with a lower ceiling.

BTW, if you haven't already done so, feel free to visit Brock's post on MORE LOGO LEAKS and leave a "like". Just a few more "likes" and yours truly receives a wonderful gifting of a new pennant to replace the "old one" I picked up in August during my first visit to Target Field. And yes, I'm pimping myself unabashedly here, LOL!

I liked the old "M" from the 90's era. How about stealing from the Tigers and doing an Old English "M"? Some have pointed out it appears to be an upside down "W" to pay homage to the Senator days. And I get wanting to do that. But it just looks odd and clunky to me.

I agree whole heartedly on the missing Mini and Paul logo. It's an iconic, stand alone symbol of the franchise and I think it should have been included. Obviously, it's an easy add and I hope they do so.

I think they are great! They are clean and classy, modern but with that touch of past for a classic feel. BUT....that "M" is just the worst! It's like the whole re-brand idea went to 90-95% and then just hit a brick wall.

Going to disagree only slightly with you Seth. I think Gray was a 2yr deal with a "we'll see" at the end of 2023, if not earlier. Mahle was brought in as a potential "steal" for a pitcher just reaching the right time of stuff and experience, to help in 2022...which didn't happen, unfortunately...and be a potential re-sign for the future. His injury/dead arm issues could actually play in the Twins favor going forward. I just don't see the Twins making an extension offer offseason while there is still concern. They tend to play "safe" at times. I believe, if they like the medicals, they will bump to $7 or $8, $12, and $15, with an option for $18. They might go $10, $13, $18, and $20. But health is a factor, as always, as well as what Mahle does and what he believes his worth is. Is Mahle, and his reps, convinced of his value to potentially exceed that? Just too much to try and predict what the future holds. But again, I think the FO traded for him because he was getting close to the time in his career where stuff and experience moves him to another level. Think Ray a year or so ago. But I think the FO was looking at him as someone who might just be about ready to transform in to a top of the rotation SP. And if there is ANY indication of that happening they would be smart to lock him up